WITP: Logistician's Edition - Linus (J) vs Xenxen (A)

[ITAKLinus]

Few inputs regarding the industry (still in the process of doing the math and especially waiting for results on the battlefields).


CHAPTER 1

A) Hokkaido&co. have a net of 44.400 RES per-day.
B) I adjust the value to 40.000 RES per-day transported.

I assume that an eventual attack on the north happens no earlier than June-1944.
C) From June-1944 to January-1946 there are 579 turns and the area produces precisely 23.160.000ton of RES.
D) I adjust this value for a factor of 0,8. It means that I consider lost 80% of this production. I have 18.528.000ton of RES for the period above.

I assume the DEI will be cut off from Onshu on June 1944.
E) From December-1941 to June-1944 there are 907 turns. In order to compensate the loss of the northern route for 80% of its amount, I have to spread those 18.528.000ton of RES in the 907 turns from 12/41 to 06/44. It gives me a daily value of 20.048ton of RES.
F) Burma, Philippines and Sumatra, if captured intact (and that's a very big IF), give me a total of 8.655ton of RES.
G) There are 11.733ton of RES "missing" in case of an attack on the northern route.
H) To this 11.733ton of missing RES, I have to add the initial deficit of 2.000ton per-day I do have at 7th DEC 1941. This adds up to 13.733ton of RES.


What's the meaning of the above calculations?

Very easily explained.

I want to expand industries around the map and I do need to have a sort of insurance over an attack on the northern route since I don't want to run out of RES due to that.
The logic behind the calculations is to take into account an attack on the northern route and see how many supplies I would need to compensate. I put into the calculations also being cut off from the DEI in June 1944 in case things go really bad and the allies are wild.

I am even if the northern route gets destroyed since June 1944 and I keep the DEI open until 01/01/1945.



Bottom line: I can somehow compensate a loss in the North, provided I can keep the DEI route open until Jan-1945 and I do make efforts to stock RES in the right places, so that I can transfer them easily.

It's a very very very rough estimation, of course. Numbers are there, but there are too many incognita to have a more precise picture.





The above is calculated for a simple reason: now I know that if I keep the mentioned areas and the DEI-Onshu route open until Jan-45, I'm insured against an assault to the North.
And, especially, I do know that any additional RES production center can be devoted to locally produce supplies.


CHAPTER 2

Java has a grand total of 443 RES centers (including various bases in the Borneo).
It gives us a net of 443*20=8.860RES per-day.
There are 185 LIs in the island, consuming 185*15=2.775RES per-day
The 63 HIs consume 63*20=1.260RES per-day (126 fuel)
It gives us a net of 8.860-2.775-1.260=4.825ton of RES per-day

We have 226 OIL in the island. Each OIL point produces 10ton of OIL. Refineries give us 9 tons of FUEL per 10 tons of OIL. 226*9=2.034ton net of FUEL per-day in the island.
Now, of these 2.034, 126 are consumed by HIs, so we have a net of 1.908ton of FUEL per-day in the place.


So, we have a net per-day of:
4.825ton of RES
1.980ton of FUEL

If we make an investment and we do expand both HIs and LIs, we have that:
+100LIs (+100 supplies per-day, 3.000 per-month and 36.500 per-year) would reduce the availability of RES to 4.825-(100+15)=3.325ton
+100HIs (+200 supplies per-day, 6.000 per-month and 73.000 per-year) would reduce the net of RES to 3.325-(100*20)=1.325ton. Fuel would be reduced from 1.908ton per-day of surplus to 1.708ton.

This industrial expansion as a whole would pay itself in on the 05-APR-1944 supply-wise. It means that, until 01/01/1945, it would give to the area an additional 81.300ton of SUPPLIES.


If we double the amount of industries we do expand, we get even further in terms of convenience, since the expansion effectively gives us over 160.000ton of SUPPLIES.

A trebling, albeit interesting and seductive, is too much.


More on the expansions in later posts. This one was "Java-focused".

[PaxMondo]

RES production on the map greatly out weighs the HI/LI facilities available. RES are also fairly easily moved. So economic expansion isn't really impacted by RES, but rather by the ROI on the production expansion. And the ROI is more dependent upon location than anything else. The tricky part is that while you control where you expand, you do NOT control where your opponent will attack. HI has an ROI of 500 days, LI 1000 days in a stock scenario.

Choosing a safe location to expand HI where it produce a positive ROI is rather easy to do. The challenge is that you can only expand 1 factory/day, so to add meaningful amounts takes a minimum of 100 days. So, you need to find/choose those expansion locations carefully knowing that you are creating target priorities for your opponent. HI locations are far fewer than LI, and rather easy for your opponent to determine where/if you have expanded.

LI expansion is simply all about where as well, but you have far more choices with the catch that it takes so much longer to get a positive ROI.

Finally, and the real NAIL for either expansion: you now have to balance when you will spend for the future against the needs of the now. Few IJ players have any excess supply until about May 42, and that is if they keep to the historical expansion ... if you plan to go beyond that, then you will have less supply available for future supply expansion. Meaning it can be late '42 before you start expanding ... that means '45 before you break even on LI.

My last thoughts on HI/LI expansion: compare what you can get by factory expansion versus conquest expansion. A good move into India can net you easily 1M supply, often more. If you can take the east coast of OZ including Melbourne, again well in excess of 1M supply. You only need to hold each area for about 6 months to hit these numbers ...

So, good luck!

[ITAKLinus]

CHAPTER 3

We have approached in the last post a general view over the industry in Java and the "RESOURCES problem".

The +100HI+100LI for Java is not a big deal, as we all know.


Now we attack another very salient topic: China.

Our friends of the China Expeditionary Army will hopefully be able to control a fair amount of the country in few months.

My logic is extremely easy and simple.
I do keep track of what I conquer and, once I reach a +100RES conquered, I start balancing LIs and RES, either through LI expansion or repair.

Why so? Because +100RES points are what is needed in order to balance the initial deficit Japan has and, in case the northern route is not touched, I can run the economy "normally", meaning without shipments of RES from DEI, saving a lot of fuel.
In this case, it's easier to ship from China than to balance through shipments from DEI.

HIs will not really be touched, a part from the usual locations of Canton, HK, Shangai, etcetc. I do plan to have a meagre +500HIs in the area. It's quite a big burden in terms of fuel, but...


Here is the trick.


I will own Magwe for quite a long time. Magwe provides me with +2.700FUEL per-day. Considering the consumption of 2 fuel per-HI, I have that in line of principle I have space for 1.350 additional HIs around the map. The OIL present in China, for example at Langchow, is not considered. It compensates the deficit present in Manchuria.

The OIL of Magwe is instead used to feed the additional HIs.

Clearly, it's not that specific OIL production which will be fed into the HIs, but the availability of it, differently from a normal game, is very relevant because it gives additional room for HI expansion.




So, to recap, China will reach +100RES points conquered and, at that point, it will start seeing LI repair/expansion so to match the local RES production.
HIs will be expanded, gradually, all around the place in various areas. The more the LIs are spread, the better. The more the HIs are concentrated and far away from the coast, the better.
Why LIs have to be spread as much as possible?
That's one of the main advantages of LI expansion: if they are spread and in areas where they do not give VPs, the incentive given to the allied player in bombing them is very low. The fact they are scattered, further helps in discouraging a bombing campaign.
Why HIs concentrated? Because: A) there are fewer locations with HIs per-se, so we don't have many other options; B) the FUEL transit overland makes us waste a lot of it.



A very rough estimate gives me that there are 550RES points in the area SOUTH of Kiuchuan and EAST of Ankang. 236 LIs are present.
In line of principle, if I do conquer everything intact, I get an enormous net of +7.460RES per-day.
Clearly, I won't take these places without damage, but with even a 50% damage, I still have over 1.000RES net per-day once the LIs are repaired.

So, everything lies in the level of damage the RES producing centres will have in N-E China.



If we look at the area SOUTH of Changsha and its river (Changsha excluded), we have a nice amount of 519RES points and 215LIs. They give us a net of 7.155RES per-day.
Capturing RES points with 50% damage, would still give us 1.975RES per-day, allowing over 130LIs to be built.
There are HIs points in the area, but, being only 21, they do not matter much in the end.



The big deal is Changsha area, which is both very complex to defend for the Chinese player and rich of RES.
There, in only 5 bases we have a grand total of 122LIs and 243RES, with a net of 3.030RES per-day.



As we have seen from this general overview, the great show is in China. It's there that the greatest concentration of RES is present and is there that we can gain terrain which will be invested only very very late in the game. Also, given the nature of the map and the VP-system, it's relatively unlikely that the allies will launch a massive strat bombing campaign in the area.

Therefore, China is going to see the majority of LI/HI expansions. With an overall expenditure of little over 1.000.000SUPPLIES equally divided between HIs and LIs, I have that I will have repaid the investment in mid-44 and I will gain over 275.000ton SUPPLIES between Jul-44 and Jan-45. If we consider Jun-45, it's over half a million additional supplies.
Am I able to sustain the massive expansion?
Yes, definitely.
Will the allies let me do it and not bomb every base in the map? Well, hard to know.

Just the HI expansion would net me over 27.500 1E planes between April-42 and Jan-45. Not that I've never had problems in producing otrageous amounts of planes...

[ITAKLinus]

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

RES production on the map greatly out weighs the HI/LI facilities available. RES are also fairly easily moved. So economic expansion isn't really impacted by RES, but rather by the ROI on the production expansion. And the ROI is more dependent upon location than anything else. The tricky part is that while you control where you expand, you do NOT control where your opponent will attack. HI has an ROI of 500 days, LI 1000 days in a stock scenario.

Choosing a safe location to expand HI where it produce a positive ROI is rather easy to do. The challenge is that you can only expand 1 factory/day, so to add meaningful amounts takes a minimum of 100 days. So, you need to find/choose those expansion locations carefully knowing that you are creating target priorities for your opponent. HI locations are far fewer than LI, and rather easy for your opponent to determine where/if you have expanded.

LI expansion is simply all about where as well, but you have far more choices with the catch that it takes so much longer to get a positive ROI.

Finally, and the real NAIL for either expansion: you now have to balance when you will spend for the future against the needs of the now. Few IJ players have any excess supply until about May 42, and that is if they keep to the historical expansion ... if you plan to go beyond that, then you will have less supply available for future supply expansion. Meaning it can be late '42 before you start expanding ... that means '45 before you break even on LI.

My last thoughts on HI/LI expansion: compare what you can get by factory expansion versus conquest expansion. A good move into India can net you easily 1M supply, often more. If you can take the east coast of OZ including Melbourne, again well in excess of 1M supply. You only need to hold each area for about 6 months to hit these numbers ...

So, good luck!

Seen your post now, while I was writing "CHAPTER 3". Thank you very much for the info! I agree and understand your points!

When I conquered Bombay in the fall '42 in my last PBEM I got over 250.000ton of supplies there and I was... Underwhelmed. India netted me an unreasonable amount of captured supplies. In early '44 I was running with +32.000ton supplies per-day,roughly +12.000 vis-à-vis a normal game. Over 40M res in stock also.


Australia has been a failure instead. Probably I conquered it too early but in the game in which I've been able to conquer it, I've found it's not that good compared to India. I think I've been in loss there.



I'll analyse your good inputs a little bit and I'll come back to them. So far, I don't see such a huge supply shortage early game, provided I'm willing to almost crash the economy.
In the Indian PBEM I've had moments in which I was at 720.000ton Empire-wide in mid-42.

[RangerJoe]

Oil at Magwe is easily bombed. When you occupy the hex, make sure that you have sufficient AAA there along with radars and/or searchlights. Radar is also important for the fighters to intercept the bombers since it gives you a nice warning time. You will also need fighters in the area as well.

[ITAKLinus]

[center]28 DECEMBER 1941
TURN 22[/center]


DEI

A hideous group of Vindicator sinks a DD near Palembang. Well, it's not sunk technically, but I think it won't make it.

These Vindicators are a PITA and they've already sunk (1 hit and sunk...) the CL Oi near Luzon.


The expected all-out boming on Palembang doesn't happen. I occupy Bengkalis after the defenders are completely wiped out by bombers.

KB reaches Singapore and refuels.


Malaya Army still trapped and with worse odds every single day.



PACIFIC

Nothing new. Sent the 2nd KB to Babledaob, it will support the operations around Timor, where I land tomorrow (without air cover, so, fingers crossed).


CHINA

I start tomorrow the offensive toward Loyang. In the mid-term, I should be able to push through the defenses and arrive at Sian.
Many bombers are devoted to support the operations, but the air support is quite lacking.


OTHER

Rufe factories are getting repaired at an astonishing rate. That's good.

Purchased more ENG from Fusan area: they'll stop in Hankow to help with the AF construction and then they'll go in the SoPac, where I desperately need ENG everywhere.

[ITAKLinus]

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

Oil at Magwe is easily bombed. When you occupy the hex, make sure that you have sufficient AAA there along with radars and/or searchlights. Radar is also important for the fighters to intercept the bombers since it gives you a nice warning time. You will also need fighters in the area as well.

Yeah, generally Magwe meets a horrible end pretty quickly. The big advantage here is that I will get it after I've invested Calcutta area and I don't think he will be able to bomb it seriously.
I have some AA already in Singapore, ready for when I will take the place. I think I'll devote a single group of Nate to disturb any eventual long distance bombing run from India. I am quite confident he won't bomb it, though.

Same for Ledo.


Paradoxically, Borneo installations are in a more perilious situation since he can move B17s from Australia to Philippines, bomb and then go back. Nates won't help much if he does a concentrated effort.
However, I have plans to speed up Philippines famine.

The route between Marianas and Bonins is already closed, also. I sent on 7th DEC a IJNAF Bn in Marcus Island and placed there the odd 2 planes group of Betty which starts in the Marshalls. Two old 18knts-CLs are patrolling the place backed by a TK and an AD in Marcus itself. They should be enough.
Can't do much for Tarakan-Manila route, though: I have no AFs in the area and won't have one until I don't get Miri/Brunei in a couple of turns.

[ITAKLinus]

[center]29 DECEMBER 1941
TURN 23[/center]

DEI

Thomas doesn't finish off the damaged DD, but it's not gonna make it anyway.

Defenders of the Malaya Army start to surrender. I hope they will be finished in max 3 turns.

I capture Georgetown with a shock attack from my Thai division there. Defenders surrender.

Kota Baru and Kuantan are in my hands and with operative AFs.

Tomorrow I'll land in Miri and Brunei.

Upgraded to Oscar-Ic a group of Nates in Singapore.

I landed in Timor unopposed. I should even be able to bring back the TF undamaged if the enemy SCTFs do not intervene.



PACIFIC

No signs of enemy activity in the area. Tomorrow the AirHQ for Rabaul reaches destination. Today the base arrives at lvl4.


CHINA

My massed bombings do not happen, but I start the advance in the area: Loyang will be soon enveloped. There are 18 Chinese units in Loyand-Changchun area: I hope to encircle them all.

The only Chinese moves so far are in Sinyang area.


OTHER

I sweep on various bases in Burma, hoping to catch the AVG in some of them. No opposition instead. Xenxen lands near Ramree Island in offbase: I think he's scared of using Rangoon due to Bangkok's Betties.


First round of industrial expansion done. +100HI in China and +50LI. Necessary supplies already on board of ships ready to be unloaded soon.



LANDING IN TIMOR:

[ITAKLinus]

[center]30 DECEMBER 1941
TURN 24[/center]


DEI


At Sabang an enemy CL appears, eventually trying to attack my amphTF. It meets a large BombTF which sinks it. During the day, strike after strike arrive on the base, which is then taken.

Massive surrender of the Malaya Army with over 5.500 troops lost today. Still a couple of weak units remain alive. I ordered 3 NavGuards to finish the job, while the bulk of my forces march toward Singapore.


No strikes from the dutch airforce. A couple of fighters found and destroyed over Batavia.


I landed in Miri, which will fall tomorrow.


Lautem, Timor, got conquered. A single allied CL arrived to bomb my forces, supposedly sent to intercept my AmphTF.


PACIFIC


A little disaster with 3 PBs and 3 xAKs sunk at Wake due to an attacking 4xDD TF.

No other enemy activity around.



CHINA


I launched massive airstrikes over enemy forces in Loyang area. My troops are marching quickly and I presume I will be able to start attacking the enemy in few days.


OTHER

Nothing relevant. In few days I start loading the troops in Singers for the Indian operation. In truth, I can load them tomorrow, but I've not made up my mind yet.

[RangerJoe]

Make up your mind now, your bonus is expiring soon . . . [;)]

[GetAssista]

WRT all the industrial calculations I suggest using Tracker, for among a score of useful features it has there is also summing of industries by landmasses. With already available (and editable if need be) tables of bases connected by overland routes traversable by res/fuel. So it is easy to see production and needs on the big picture to plan the flows

A lot of of DEI resources is within reach via shipping to CRB and building up Haiphong port to make it draw from CRB, then it will propagate to China with no hitch and no backdraw to Singers.

Don't plan on capturing much supply stockpiles in India or Oz conquest, if it comes it comes as a bonus. Complete destructions happen often.

[ITAKLinus]

[center]31 DECEMBER 1941
TURN 25[/center]


DEI

Various sweeps meet no resistance a part from a lonley dutch buffalo which gets destroyed.

Many bombers sent over the ex defenders of Sabang. Malaya Army is still alive, but every turn some unit surrender. I suppose either tomorrow or the day after it will be completely destroyed. I left 3 NavGuards there to finish the job.

Miri occupied. Brunei will be occupied tomorrow.

Tomorrow I will start embarking the troops of the 1st wave for the indian invasion. The day after tomorrow, more troops will be loaded.


PACIFIC

Nothing new.


CHINA

Massive bombing runs on Chinese defenders in Loyang area. Soon, I'll have the tank vanguars completely encircling the place.



OTHER

Sent roughly 200.000ton of supplies to Singers. Sent 150.000ton of supplies to China (in addition to the ones already being unloaded).

ORIGINAL: GetAssista

WRT all the industrial calculations I suggest using Tracker, for among a score of useful features it has there is also summing of industries by landmasses. With already available (and editable if need be) tables of bases connected by overland routes traversable by res/fuel. So it is easy to see production and needs on the big picture to plan the flows

A lot of of DEI resources is within reach via shipping to CRB and building up Haiphong port to make it draw from CRB, then it will propagate to China with no hitch and no backdraw to Singers.

Don't plan on capturing much supply stockpiles in India or Oz conquest, if it comes it comes as a bonus. Complete destructions happen often.

I don't like the tracker, I prefer the ol' good excel tables.

Yeah, you're right: counting on capturing huge stockpiles from the enemy is quite naive. On the other side, it can happen quite frequently in India if things start moving very quickly.


Regarding shipping: my intention was to use Haiphong=>HK. Doesn't it draw them anyway if I don't shipping to CRB? I've pulled OIL there in my games, but I don't know about RES.

Other interesting thing is this: how do I pull RES from India to somewhere? I tend to exclude passing throguh Burma, but I was considering the possibility of running a convoy from India to Thailand. If I ship to, say, Tavoy/Moulmein/Victoria Point, do they flow in Thailand/Vietnam (and, then to Haiphong)? I've never tried or considered this.

[ITAKLinus]

[center]01 JANUARY 1942
TURN 26[/center]


DEI

Nothing relevant. Tomorrow I start the loading of the guys for India. Malaya Army has just one base force remaining.

Brunei occupied.

Djambi will be occupied tomorrow.

Perhaps, I found the Dutch airforce in a couple of inland AFs. I'll bomb them tomorrow with Betty/Nell.

I have currently 6 divisions already formed in Singapore, plus the various fragments of the other ones. 4 will be loaded tomorrow and 4 more the day after. Destination: India.

Still thinking whether it's better to load the 2nd wave on fast ships and the 1st on the slower ones. The alternative is to do the other way round.


PACIFIC

Nothing new. I'm currently in the process of developing key airfields such as Buna, Rabaul and Shortlands. Buna will serve the N-E PNG coast, Rabaul is gonna be the major logistical hub and Shortlands helps the Solomon Islands Chain.

Many ENG are currently in Truk, trying to bring to 7 the port (so that I can reload BBs without NavSupp or AKEs). Once they finish the job there, they are going to be sent around to develop forward bases such as Tabiteuea or Thousand Ships Bay.



CHINA

I keep under pressure the guys in Loyang area while I move my troops.

I would really welcome Hankow AF lvl9, but it will take time (currently at lvl8), so I do what I can from various AFs around the front.


OTHER

Sent 12 AKEs loaded from Onshu to Singapore, they will assist the India invasion.
Trying to figure out a way to bring the various MiuraDet and KimuraDet (and others) to Babeldaob in order to ship them to Singapore and reform the divisions. I have a CV and a couple of CVLs to cover the ships while they pass between Borneo and Philippines. This move should also bring in Singapore a bunch of CAs and BBs, which will be needed in India and Java operations.
Since the Pacific is relatively calm, I can focus for a while on the two major operations of the next month.


CHINA, LOYANG FRONT:

[ny59giants]

Subs:

What do you do when it comes to building them? It takes about 33 naval shipbuilding points for each which comes down to three subs equal one CV being built. I tend to stop most that have not started building to focus on warships being completed to save on points and use elsewhere.

India deployment - How many are you send to the western side of India? There are two classes of CW xAKs that can convert to xAP in less than month. They are very useful as the Allies for unloading troops in SoPac at ports that are size 2 or 3. Sometime, I send them to Bombay for conversion before going to Cape Town or Aden. I would have 4 to 6 I-boats due west of Bombay to sink what you can.

[ITAKLinus]

ORIGINAL: ny59giants

Subs:

What do you do when it comes to building them? It takes about 33 naval shipbuilding points for each which comes down to three subs equal one CV being built. I tend to stop most that have not started building to focus on warships being completed to save on points and use elsewhere.

India deployment - How many are you send to the western side of India? There are two classes of CW xAKs that can convert to xAP in less than month. They are very useful as the Allies for unloading troops in SoPac at ports that are size 2 or 3. Sometime, I send them to Bombay for conversion before going to Cape Town or Aden. I would have 4 to 6 I-boats due west of Bombay to sink what you can.

Thank you very much for the AP-conversion suggestion! I'll immediately send there subs.

I plan to devote 4 divisions (1st wave) to Calcutta area. They encircle the city, hopefully securing Jamshedpur, and send tanks everywhere to create confusion. Burma will be sealed off in this phase.
The 2nd wave lands few days after the first in Cocanda and Vizagapatnam. 4 divisions there as well. They do march inland threatening both Hyderabad and Madras. I hope Thomas will evacuate one of the two. Once the AF is developed a little bit, I can keep under observation a huge proportion of the Arabian Sea, including and especially the approaches to Bombay. Also Celyon is under surveillance from that area.
The 3rd wave arrives once the fast ships of the 1st (or 2nd) have returned back to Singapore. Diamond Harbor - Singapore is 50hex, so it won't take much. It's 4 more divisions. I'm flexible about their deployment because I do not know how the allies will react. If I do see a massive reinforcement of Calcutta, I send them in Diamond Harbor. If not, I evaluate the situation and decide what's better.

From my perspective is vital to create the maximum possible confusion in enemy lines, so I cannot really tell now whether an opportunity will arise or not.


Subs. I don't produce them until I don't have freed-up some NavShipyard points. As soon as I start producing ships which I have accelerated, I restart sub production. I'm a great fan of subs, but there are other priorities.
They cost an insane amount of NavShipyard points, as you have noticed, and I prioritize other stuff such as CV acceleration. Currently, since I decided to build the Yamato-Class, I am tight on NavShipyard points because I decided to accelerate the Yamato (over 600 NavShip points!) in order to free up the shipyards early: the tradeoff is quite ok-ish, especially now that Saratoga is sunk.
In general, I keep producing subs for the entire war but they are a sort of gap-fillers: I do produce them to the extent I have NavShipyards points free. If I don't have free shipyards, subs are stopped for good. CVs and DDs are the priority (and, later, Es). It's very nice to produce and even accelerate the ones which use the Seiran, though.

[ITAKLinus]

[center]02 JANUARY 1942
TURN 27[/center]


DEI

I sweep an enemy AF where I have seen bombers yesterday. Xenxen has sent away the bombers and put all the available fighters. I destroy 6 of them for no losses. Then various Nells and Betties destroy the AF, but lose 3 of their own.

In loading the India invasion at Singapore.


PACIFIC

An allied TF bombs Wake but has little to no effect.


CHINA

I keep bombing the Chinese forces while my men march. I hope to be able to start the assaults soon.


OTHER

Found the AVG at Chittagong. Swept with A6M2s and I lose 3 (all MIA) for 4 of them.


I start thinking Xen is astonished by my inactivity. He will realise something big is going to happen. So far, he's reinforcing Burma from Akyab. He also tried to land offbase near Ramree but I sunk some of his ships few days ago.

[PaxMondo]

ORIGINAL: ITAKLinus

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

RES production on the map greatly out weighs the HI/LI facilities available. RES are also fairly easily moved. So economic expansion isn't really impacted by RES, but rather by the ROI on the production expansion. And the ROI is more dependent upon location than anything else. The tricky part is that while you control where you expand, you do NOT control where your opponent will attack. HI has an ROI of 500 days, LI 1000 days in a stock scenario.

Choosing a safe location to expand HI where it produce a positive ROI is rather easy to do. The challenge is that you can only expand 1 factory/day, so to add meaningful amounts takes a minimum of 100 days. So, you need to find/choose those expansion locations carefully knowing that you are creating target priorities for your opponent. HI locations are far fewer than LI, and rather easy for your opponent to determine where/if you have expanded.

LI expansion is simply all about where as well, but you have far more choices with the catch that it takes so much longer to get a positive ROI.

Finally, and the real NAIL for either expansion: you now have to balance when you will spend for the future against the needs of the now. Few IJ players have any excess supply until about May 42, and that is if they keep to the historical expansion ... if you plan to go beyond that, then you will have less supply available for future supply expansion. Meaning it can be late '42 before you start expanding ... that means '45 before you break even on LI.

My last thoughts on HI/LI expansion: compare what you can get by factory expansion versus conquest expansion. A good move into India can net you easily 1M supply, often more. If you can take the east coast of OZ including Melbourne, again well in excess of 1M supply. You only need to hold each area for about 6 months to hit these numbers ...

So, good luck!

Seen your post now, while I was writing "CHAPTER 3". Thank you very much for the info! I agree and understand your points!

When I conquered Bombay in the fall '42 in my last PBEM I got over 250.000ton of supplies there and I was... Underwhelmed. India netted me an unreasonable amount of captured supplies. In early '44 I was running with +32.000ton supplies per-day,roughly +12.000 vis-à-vis a normal game. Over 40M res in stock also.


Australia has been a failure instead. Probably I conquered it too early but in the game in which I've been able to conquer it, I've found it's not that good compared to India. I think I've been in loss there.



I'll analyse your good inputs a little bit and I'll come back to them. So far, I don't see such a huge supply shortage early game, provided I'm willing to almost crash the economy.
In the Indian PBEM I've had moments in which I was at 720.000ton Empire-wide in mid-42.

It isn't just the supply you capture, but also the supply you earn from all the industry that you capture. That is the reason for the part where I note hold it for 6 months. That is all industry that you did NOT pay supply to build, an incredible savings.

OZ: did you capture the east coast including Melbourne? Again, if you do and hold it for 6 months, you will likely see a very nice supply bonus.

India vs OZ: a lot depends upon your opponent. India is easier for the allies to support, but OZ is farther for you as well. There is no absolute right answer, a lot of it revolves around how the game develops.

[ITAKLinus]

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

ORIGINAL: ITAKLinus

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

RES production on the map greatly out weighs the HI/LI facilities available. RES are also fairly easily moved. So economic expansion isn't really impacted by RES, but rather by the ROI on the production expansion. And the ROI is more dependent upon location than anything else. The tricky part is that while you control where you expand, you do NOT control where your opponent will attack. HI has an ROI of 500 days, LI 1000 days in a stock scenario.

Choosing a safe location to expand HI where it produce a positive ROI is rather easy to do. The challenge is that you can only expand 1 factory/day, so to add meaningful amounts takes a minimum of 100 days. So, you need to find/choose those expansion locations carefully knowing that you are creating target priorities for your opponent. HI locations are far fewer than LI, and rather easy for your opponent to determine where/if you have expanded.

LI expansion is simply all about where as well, but you have far more choices with the catch that it takes so much longer to get a positive ROI.

Finally, and the real NAIL for either expansion: you now have to balance when you will spend for the future against the needs of the now. Few IJ players have any excess supply until about May 42, and that is if they keep to the historical expansion ... if you plan to go beyond that, then you will have less supply available for future supply expansion. Meaning it can be late '42 before you start expanding ... that means '45 before you break even on LI.

My last thoughts on HI/LI expansion: compare what you can get by factory expansion versus conquest expansion. A good move into India can net you easily 1M supply, often more. If you can take the east coast of OZ including Melbourne, again well in excess of 1M supply. You only need to hold each area for about 6 months to hit these numbers ...

So, good luck!

Seen your post now, while I was writing "CHAPTER 3". Thank you very much for the info! I agree and understand your points!

When I conquered Bombay in the fall '42 in my last PBEM I got over 250.000ton of supplies there and I was... Underwhelmed. India netted me an unreasonable amount of captured supplies. In early '44 I was running with +32.000ton supplies per-day,roughly +12.000 vis-à-vis a normal game. Over 40M res in stock also.


Australia has been a failure instead. Probably I conquered it too early but in the game in which I've been able to conquer it, I've found it's not that good compared to India. I think I've been in loss there.



I'll analyse your good inputs a little bit and I'll come back to them. So far, I don't see such a huge supply shortage early game, provided I'm willing to almost crash the economy.
In the Indian PBEM I've had moments in which I was at 720.000ton Empire-wide in mid-42.

It isn't just the supply you capture, but also the supply you earn from all the industry that you capture. That is the reason for the part where I note hold it for 6 months. That is all industry that you did NOT pay supply to build, an incredible savings.

OZ: did you capture the east coast including Melbourne? Again, if you do and hold it for 6 months, you will likely see a very nice supply bonus.

India vs OZ: a lot depends upon your opponent. India is easier for the allies to support, but OZ is farther for you as well. There is no absolute right answer, a lot of it revolves around how the game develops.

You're right. The supply creation you have from India is just amazing. It's a very big game changer.

I got the whole india except Socotra, so I have somehow saved on the supply expenditure I would have had with allied bombings from north of LOD.
That PBEM ended on 01/01/44 with A.V. but I continued it. The allied player invaded India in Feb-44 but I was still earning an insane amount of supplies per-turn.
Now I restarded it from 01/01/44 with a new opponent, but I am playing the allied side. As per 20-apr-44, India is still in Japanese hands.


In Australia: I got the whole place, inculding Tasmania and Sydney. I was going for NZ but we were already at 5:1 in VP ratio and the opponent surrendered (the turn before I would have jumped with KB on his US carriers... [8|]). Australia is not a big deal from my perspective. India is way more lucrative.
I held Australia for few months, though. Game ended too soon to say.

[ITAKLinus]

[center]03 JANUARY 1942
TURN 28[/center]



DEI

Nothing new. Indian invasion is moving from Singapore.


PACIFIC

Nothing new. The allies have aviotransported a LCU in Tagula Island.


CHINA

I continue the movement around Loyang.


OTHER

Nothing relevant.

[PaxMondo]

ORIGINAL: ITAKLinus

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

ORIGINAL: ITAKLinus






Seen your post now, while I was writing "CHAPTER 3". Thank you very much for the info! I agree and understand your points!

When I conquered Bombay in the fall '42 in my last PBEM I got over 250.000ton of supplies there and I was... Underwhelmed. India netted me an unreasonable amount of captured supplies. In early '44 I was running with +32.000ton supplies per-day,roughly +12.000 vis-à-vis a normal game. Over 40M res in stock also.


Australia has been a failure instead. Probably I conquered it too early but in the game in which I've been able to conquer it, I've found it's not that good compared to India. I think I've been in loss there.



I'll analyse your good inputs a little bit and I'll come back to them. So far, I don't see such a huge supply shortage early game, provided I'm willing to almost crash the economy.
In the Indian PBEM I've had moments in which I was at 720.000ton Empire-wide in mid-42.

It isn't just the supply you capture, but also the supply you earn from all the industry that you capture. That is the reason for the part where I note hold it for 6 months. That is all industry that you did NOT pay supply to build, an incredible savings.

OZ: did you capture the east coast including Melbourne? Again, if you do and hold it for 6 months, you will likely see a very nice supply bonus.

India vs OZ: a lot depends upon your opponent. India is easier for the allies to support, but OZ is farther for you as well. There is no absolute right answer, a lot of it revolves around how the game develops.

You're right. The supply creation you have from India is just amazing. It's a very big game changer.

I got the whole india except Socotra, so I have somehow saved on the supply expenditure I would have had with allied bombings from north of LOD.
That PBEM ended on 01/01/44 with A.V. but I continued it. The allied player invaded India in Feb-44 but I was still earning an insane amount of supplies per-turn.
Now I restarded it from 01/01/44 with a new opponent, but I am playing the allied side. As per 20-apr-44, India is still in Japanese hands.


In Australia: I got the whole place, inculding Tasmania and Sydney. I was going for NZ but we were already at 5:1 in VP ratio and the opponent surrendered (the turn before I would have jumped with KB on his US carriers... [8|]). Australia is not a big deal from my perspective. India is way more lucrative.
I held Australia for few months, though. Game ended too soon to say.

OK, so enough said. Now you understand why I am not a strong proponent of expending supply to expand production; it is far cheaper to simply take the production you want. If you are a warmonger, you may as well play the role to the hilt.

[:D]