Donbass Conflict heating up????

[BeirutDude]

Ukraine Air Force/ADA system is defined. Assumptions...

I moved one Buk Regt from the SW Ukraine, just didn't make sense they would stay there when there is a hole in teh ADA defense near Crimea and it is up against NATO Territory and that none would move into the Donbass.

I assumed that Ukraine Air Force "Brigades" are at "Squadron" Level, there aren't enough aircraft to equip the "brigades" at two-three 12 plane squadrons.

Ukraine Army ADA Regts are equipped with SA-12s.

Ukraine AF has only 2-3 of each loadout at each base for it's normal aircraft. Did forward deploy one squadron from SW Ukraine.

All of the S300PS Regts/Brigades radars are equipped with SA-10B Radars.

Army aviation would be used in Donbass and I'm not modeling it.

[edsw]

Greetings, there is an S-300 in Kharkov

[BeirutDude]

Do you know which unit, because, as far as I know, all are accounted for.

[edsw]

In Kharkov, the Air Defense Academy, in which there is an S-300, plus because Kharkov is the second largest city in Ukraine, so it is covered by the 208th anti-aircraft missile brigade with the S-300 battalion (from 6 to 12 launchers, I don't know for sure) ...
uptdate. I beg your pardon, I confused it with Kherson, in Kharkov only the training unit with the S-300PS

[edsw]

Model S-300PS

[BeirutDude]

ORIGINAL: edsw

In Kharkov, the Air Defense Academy, in which there is an S-300, plus because Kharkov is the second largest city in Ukraine, so it is covered by the 208th anti-aircraft missile brigade with the S-300 battalion (from 6 to 12 launchers, I don't know for sure) ...
uptdate. I beg your pardon, I confused it with Kherson, in Kharkov only the training unit with the S-300PS

TY! My info has that brigade elsewhere but think you would know better! That said, I have found the Army's 1039th Anti-aircraft Missile Artillery Regiment is to the SW of Kharkov and I haven't modeled them (the on I left out) so will just number an S300PS unit as the 1039th near there.

[maverick3320]

ORIGINAL: BeirutDude

OH NO, lets not blow up another thread with snipping at each other. How about we pass any information we have for the good of everyone and keep from blaming one side or the other. We need to recognize there are people on these forums from all over the world and your political views likely don't match theirs.

My suggestion is if you want to fight politics/who's right or wrong there is a place for that Twitter!

My apologies. My interest wasn't political, it was purely genuine - as it would be for someone who believed the world was flat, Modern Monetary Theory, or that the moon landing was faked.

[BDukes]

The moon landing was faked? Fudge. That's where all the keys for the bitcoin I bought was stored.[8D]

Mike

[kevinkins]

Normally would not post something from the NY Post unless sport related. However, if true - pretty significant.

https://nypost.com/2021/04/15/putin-clo ... en-blinks/

More:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... raine.html

[Gunner98]

Interesting yes but the Sea of Azov is the area effected by this, and I don't think US warships (or many other for that matter) would venture into it. According to Wiki the average depth is between 0.9 and 14 Meters. Now I understand that Wiki isn't a naval chart but the draft of a DDG-51 is 9.3 Meters

I really doubt that a US destroyer would venture into waters that shallow and that provocatively anyway.

Annoyingly both reports headlines are inflating the impacts, one claiming the Black Sea is blocked [which is untrue] and another claiming access to the Ukraine is blocked [which is also untrue]. The text clarifies this, sort of but the bi-lines are just plain wrong.

[kevinkins]

Forget the headlines, without the Kerch Strait, Ukraine is pretty much landlocked. And US destroyers would never operate in the Sea of Azov anyway. That is not the point. But they do passage the Black Sea several times a year. The most significant thing is that the USN is not going to send destroyers into the Black Sea as planned. Probably a concession to get recently discussed US - Russian "summit" in a few months.

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/04/1 ... ons-481897

[Scorpion86]

I guess it's to be expected: both "newspapers" have been doing clickbait headlines for decades before the internet even existed...

[Scorpion86]

ORIGINAL: kevinkins
Forget the headlines, without the Kerch Strait, Ukraine is pretty much landlocked.

That simply isn't true. Yes, about half of Ukraine's coastline is effectively blocked, but that still leaves all the coastline west of the occupied Crimea. It is hardly landlocked...

[BeirutDude]

I have seen reports that amphibious vessels are headed south from the Northern Fleet and other smaller vessels have been transferred from the Caspian Sea. If true that may indicate some type of amphibious operation is contemplated.

[Gunner98]

Ukraine is pretty much landlocked.

Odessa, Kherson, Mykolaiv, Belgorod and several other pretty big ports.

https://www.sifservice.com/index.php/en ... /sea-ports

[Sardaukar]

Actually Ukraine's biggest ports are all west of Crimea, as said above. Ones on Sea of Azov are minor ones.

[BeirutDude]

For what it’s worth, Twitter report, 2 Northern Fleet Project 775 Ropucha’s are reported to have reprovisioned in Tartus NF, Syria and are now underway escorted by two Baltic Fleet frigates.

[kevinkins]

I see what you mean about those ports, but wouldn't they be easily blockaged? Kind of a one way in and one way out situation give the shape of the coast line.

[Gunner98]

Yes. Absolutely. The A2AD system in place on the Crimea could shut down shipping in an instant, but that has been the case since 2014/15 and is not related to closing the Kerch. In a crisis, Mariupol or Genichesk would not be viable alternatives. Closing access to Odessa, however would be a much more important escalation.

A similar situation exists in the Baltic where the A2AD system in Kaliningrad could easily shut access to the northern Baltic. I am sure this causes Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and Finland, some concern, Sweden as well as access to Stockholm would be impacted. We have a flurry of headlines every couple years over this and then it fades away.

Far easier and more secure, to rail into Poland and either drive or change rail bogies into Ukraine. Or on river transport. I'm sure Russia is not happy with Kiev's plans to build a European gauge railway.

Russia closes the Kerch once or twice a year for exercises, the difference this time is the length of the closure. But in reality I don't think it has any meaningful impact except another step in the escalation ladder.

I'm not saying that this isn't a disturbing development, but I think it means that US sanctions are causing a reaction. If they have hurt Russia economically or simply damaged their pride is something that time will tell.

[BeirutDude]

Have the Russian major A2/AD Sites defined and Iskandar Missiles. Struggling with Russian Navy and Bastion missiles. I had hoped to keep this to air forces only, but it looks like the 1,500 km Kalibr's and Russian blockade/amphibious operations will be huge.

Thinking of limiting this scenario to 24-36 hours with mainly air and missile assets but not fully there yet.

I did move some interior S-300V and S-400 brigades to the Ukraine theater. BTW if your favorite unit isn't in here yet remember the Ukraine and Russia aren't sharing their OOBs with me!!!!!! Doing he best I can from Open Sources and I might not have YOUR favorite open source site in my bookmarks!!!!!!