Heading East into the Soviet Union

[carlkay58]

T39 Files:

[tm1]

Nicely done,it was touch and go in the South trying to hold the Crimea.

Did you have a single Romanian Div set up or did you double stack them ( viewing your screen shot with old eyes ) I ask this only as many have written saying try to avoid using Romanian troops on the front line.

And you have Leningrad set up nicely too, I read a earlier post you wrote saying you are going to target central Russia but is The Caucasus part of the 42 objectives.

cheers

[carlkay58]

tm1

I will be discussing my future strategy more in turn 40 as I report on all of the stats and such. It will include a VP analysis and how to hit the Sudden Victory thresholds in 42 as my last great chance at victory. But I am pretty sure that there will have to be a southern offensive in order to hit the VP threshold.

The Rumanians were sometimes double stacked but usually single stacked. If you notice I kept them pretty much between the Dnepr River and the Sea of Azov - pretty much out of the way of anything important. My one shock was the loss of Zaporozhe. The defenses were just wiped out by the Soviet artillery. That is not a good omen for 43 and later.

[tm1]

Interesting look forward to you turn 40 actions.

On a lighter note you mentioned a security leak from this AAR I would be more concerned into whether " Disaffected Officers " have been coerced into giving information to " The Lucy Spy ring " based in Switzerland.

[carlkay58]

T40 Supply Net North:

It is strange not to have any Soviet Attacks to report. The supply net is in good shape. It is wonderous what being pushed back and having several months to repair track will do to it.

[carlkay58]

T40 Supply Net South:

This is a bit on the weird side but the Crimea is starting to be in supply again and that is helping.

[carlkay58]

T40 Air Phase:

I keep the Recon directives active. I need better information on the location of the Soviet defensive lines. I also added a Naval Patrol (D1, D4, D7 - 8 strikes/day) to cut off Leningrad while also creating Ground Support for AGN. The Naval Patrol only flew missions on day 1 and had no effect in comparison to the losses. I guess the weather is still too bad.

[carlkay58]

T40 Freight:

There is a +5K supply surplus this turn. It is nice to see that more is coming in than being used. The front line units have definitely needed these supplies.

[carlkay58]

T40 AGN:

Another attack failed to capture Shlisselburg. I will need to isolate the Leningrad area before these attacks will begin to work. Well that and better weather.

[carlkay58]

T40 AGC:

The panzer forces have begun to recover from the winter. I still have not released the panzer replacements as of yet. Still waiting for better weather.

[carlkay58]

T40 AGS:

The Crimea is back in full supply as the last damaged rails are repaired. The panzer corps is back near the Kersch straits again. I don't think the AI is defending the straits so I might get some good penetration before it reacts.

[carlkay58]

T40 Soviet Garrison:

The garrison stands at 127% and seems to perform well in containing the Soviet Partisans.

[carlkay58]

T40 OOB:

It hurts me to see the Soviets at 5.1M men. That is WAY TOO MANY! They outnumber the Axis in every category so a war of attrition is not going to be won. The 42 Sudden Victory chances are my best chance at winning the war.

[carlkay58]

T40 Ground Losses:

The Soviets have lost 4.5M men while the Axis have lost 1.4M a little bit better than 3:1. I can just shudder to think how large the Soviet Army would be if I had not already accounted for 4.5M of them.

[carlkay58]

T40 Air Losses:

The Soviets have lost 14.9K aircraft while the Axis have lost 4.1K. This is about a 3.6:1 ratio. These types of ratios are not enough when you see the size of the Soviet armed forces. I am losing the attrition war and MUST win in 42 or it is only a matter of time.

[carlkay58]

T40 Production:

A few things stand out on the screen. One is that the Vehicles in Repair are now down to 110K - about 12K less than five turns ago. So trucks are being repaired! The Supplies/Ammo/Fuel in units are more than needed while the Vehicles in Units is about 22K short. This is almost as good as it was before the war started! Note the number of fighters in the pool so I have room for losses there. The Axis Generic (HIWI) pool is almost entirely gone. As a whole my Manpower pools are not in good shape.

[carlkay58]

T40 VPs

The all important figure at this moment. I am currently at 551 VPs which is 24 VPs short of making sure I don't have a Sudden Loss on 1-Oct-42. So my first priority is gaining those VPs. I am 43 VPs off of my High Water Mark - dangerously close to having the initiative switch to the Soviets. I will need 750 VPs to gain Sudden Victory this year and I have until 1-Jan-43 to achieve them. This is my one true hope for victory so I need 199 VPs by the end of 43.

[carlkay58]

T40 42 Offensive: Guderian's Plan

I need 199 VPs to gain my Sudden Victory and win the war. One obvious place is Leningrad at 36 VPs. I need to capture Leningrad to shorten my lines and free up some troops for other locations. I am in position to take it but I need the weather to clear enough for my naval patrols to be effective.

That will leave 163 VPs to capture. If Guderian's plan of a central attack on Moscow works that will gain 66 VPs for Moscow, 16 for Tula, 10 for Kalinin, 10 for Orel, 10 for Kursk, and 16 for Ryazan. This totals 128 more VPs that leaves 35 VPs to come from somewhere else.

So the south will have to provide a minimum of 35 VPs. 10 for Zaporozhye, 10 for Stalino, 10 for Rostov, and 16 for Voronezh. That will win the war for me. So I have to hit the red line and hold on to them during 42. The earlier the better.

The first offensive will be in Leningrad to finish isolating it and then destroying that pocket. That will free up the 4th Panzer Army to head south. Guderian tells me that once the 4th Panzer Army comes under his command he will be able to encircle Moscow and capture it. Once that falls the three Panzer Armies under his command will sweep to the south and pick up the rest of the cities.

[carlkay58]

T40 42 Offensive Planning #2

There is some leeway in the plan. Tambov is possible to capture on AGC's march to the southeast. Yaraslovl is a possibility in the encirclement of Moscow. These would relieve AGS from having to capture anything in order to hit the threshold. The key to this would be the capture of Moscow. If Moscow fails to fall then another plan would have to be made.

The alternative is a southern strategy. It still starts with the fall of Leningrad so 163 VPs are left to gain. This plan would require the capture of Orel, Kursk, Voronezh, Stalingrad, Astrakhan, Zaporozhye, Stalino, Rostov, Krasnodar, and Maikop. It requires an advance of roughly the same distance as 41 against a numerically and operationally better opponent. But if the Soviets focus on defending Moscow and leave the south sparse this may be the way to go.

[carlkay58]

T40 Files: