Battle of the Noobs - Pavia (Axis) vs KZ (allies)

[fluidwill]

Great AAR thanks [:)]

[KorutZelva]

Turn 12, June 1940

Another sub go down. Lille is evacuated after it sustains intensive German assaults. Germany tries to reduce the Maginot pocket but the French armies hold on. Allies in the West buckle but do not break. Italy and Germany troops advance in Yugoslavia, the allies withhold sending help as they consider their situation hopeless. USSR decides against moving into the Baltic states after its failed invasion of Finland. Japan pressuring the chinese in the south. Limited counterattack by the chinese.

USA is moved by the pleas of the embattled allies (+5% diplohit)

[KorutZelva]

Situation in yugoslavia

[KorutZelva]

Turn 13

Anglo-french position start crumbling. English troops start their evacuation without notifying their french ally. Yugo holds. USA leans toward the allies (+7%) (now at 63%) (still diplomatically uncontested)

[KorutZelva]

Turn 14 - August 1940

UK finish their evacuation, no units were destroyed. Yugo holds but not for long. The French tank made a good account of itself in defeat inflicting lots of damage to the enemy. USA diplohit +4%

How high is USSR mobilization is supposed to be at that point in the war? Now it's sitting at 52% and that seems pretty high somehow. Isn't supposed to be like 25%? I think my opponent has messed up garrisoning manchuria or poland. Is that possible? If that's the case I might declare war on some neutral to balance things out. Maybe Sweden, maybe estonia-latvia?

[pjg100]

If he DOWed Yugo, that will have increased USSR mob significantly.

[KorutZelva]

So I did a little test starting a game and DOW denmark, norway, luxemburg, holland, belgium and yugo and saw that the USSR readiness was 47%... pretty close to what it is in the current game. Because the increase is random, it seems there was nothing special about the ussr readiness. You can chalk that one off as me being rusty (and paranoid).

Turn 15 - September 1940

France falls, Vichy installed. Free french recognized, Vichy fleet bombed, Dakar unsuccessfully raided. Yugo hold one last turn.

USA at 72%, diplo still uncontested. The lost of french diplochits means the odds of a USA diplo hit drops to 35%. Still pretty high. They are about 3-4 hits away from preparing for war, they may enter the war before the Russians...

Japan has been making cautious and methodological advance into China. Chinese counter attack stops.

[KorutZelva]

So with the France campaign coming to a close how did the 'KZ Diplo' fare in this installment of the game?

Better than expected honestly! I was afraid that the reduction in diplo effect would price out doing diplo-push on majors. It seems still viable. In this iteration of the game the USA is pretty rich compared to 'war in europe' making them an attractive target that can quickly recoup the allied investment. USSR can be pushed so close to war that the germans may have to reduce or even skip Mediterranean involvement. Of course a more experienced opponent would have shaved many turns of the battle of France but I was rather unlucky with my rolls so it kinda showed how many diplohits one would expect to get in a normal game if not countered. In world at war there's less tiles to trade for time in France compared to 'war in europe' but the smaller map size also means you there's opportunity to clog germany units delaying them. You do have to be adept at defending France on a budget, making full use of the BEF and abandoning the maginot line a bit sooner than what conventional wisdom dictates. It remains a gambit, France is left more vulnerable but it is my contention that the ripple effect of getting diplohits in more than compensate seeing France fall sooner. It's very dangerous left uncontested as you can raise the turn odds to 60% when all allies chip in. The Axis can mitigate it if all of them get on it and even reversed in their favor once France capitulate but it does put a strain on their early game to shell out that many mpp when their economies are still small. It even provides some form of protection against the resurgent 'all of France' strategy since it means you are leaving the French diplochits active longer if you don't Vichy.

[redrum68]

So numbers wise you invested 10 chits into USA (1500 MPs)? And how much total has it moved them towards Allies so far?

[KorutZelva]

Got 5 hits total so far
+5%
+8%
+5%
+7%
+4%

So 29% extra to the USA mobilization.

More than 10 chits because each chits that hits needs to be replaced. 5 hits means I need to buy 5 more chits. Uncontested and when it gets high enough let say the '80s, I can stop buying more. Once the landlease is active, it also sorta pays for itself. USA is at now at 480 mpp per turn (minus 100 or so land lease to the UK). Given that my diplohits account for 40% of the USA mobilization that means roughly 200mpp a turn gained.

Yeah its a lot of money, UK can only play defense for lack of units. But its income is now flush with fat american land-lease, pretty soon I'll be able to pivot to unit production. UK and USA have nearly maxed research spendings. High USA mobilization also means Japans has to think about implementing its sneak attack way ahead of schedule which can be disruptive to its plans.

[KorutZelva]

Turn 16 - October 1940

Yugo falls to the Italians, Hungary and Romania joins Axis. Very little action in Africa so far. Mogadishu was taken by the British a few turns back and few towns in Ethiopia but no push has been made toward Addis Ababa.

[KorutZelva]

Turn 17 - November 1940

Italy declares war on Greece (via decision). UK sends forces in the theather to strengthen Greek defenders resolve. Japanese making small but constant gain in china.

[KorutZelva]

Turn 18, December 1940

Italy progress in Greece, General Papagos almost captured. Japan makes gains in Asia. USA draws closer to war (+8% diplohit) mobilization sitting in the mid-80s... Troops are massing on the USSR border...

[KorutZelva]

At my opponent request I will explain how the "KZ diplopush" works.

Diplomacy is rarely done towards major countries because it cost 150mpp instead of the standard 50mp. My contention us that it can be beneficial for allies to maximize diplomatic involvement toward the USA or the Soviet. How does it work? Each diplochits grant a 5% possibility of an increase in mobilization (4-8% for majors) and they add up across countries. France (3) and UK (5) buying all USA diplochits would mean a 40% chance for the USA to increase its mobilization. There is one quirk in the diplomacy mechanic of all Strategic Command games is that each time a diplomatic hit is achieved the Diplochit that is consumed is always the one of the power that has the most diplochit toward the target. So if France, UK, India and China all buys diplochits to their maximum, only the UK ones would be expended. This is crucial because France, China and India wouldn't really be able to buy more if their diplochits were consumed. UK on the other hand can and its ally contribution can send the odds of increase quite high.

Diplochits don't really work well with low number or spread out but concentrated on a single target it can be very effective. In this game, France, UK and China all bought maximum possible chits which put the chance of USA increase to 50%. Had not made a mistake in regards to India, I could added their two chits as well.

How to counter it?

1-The Axis buys chits toward the allied target. Each one they buy reduce the odds increase by 5% and with enough chits they can even turn the odds for USA increase in their favor after France surrenders.
2-Axis could go for diplomacy to other countries, Spain and Turkey for example. The allies wouldn't be able to counter their diplomatic efforts because their own commitment towards the USA.

I don't think Axis can really stay idle on the diplomatic front and hope to push France and the UK off the board before USA or the Soviet mobilize too much.

[Elessar2]

An argument can be made that EVERYBODY's chits should be consumed, then.

[pjg100]

The impact of having the US in the war in early 1941, which it appears will happen here, should be decisive. I don't see how your opponent can win at this point.

[KorutZelva]

ORIGINAL: Elessar2

An argument can be made that EVERYBODY's chits should be consumed, then.

Further nerf my grand strategy??!?!?! C'mon they already reduced the increase by hits to major since the last game.

Bill, Hubert, don't listen to them! [:D]

The one thing I think they could change is not giving diplochits to India. I mean, they were run by the UK. How much clout did India had at that time? Certainly not par with China's. Plus the Allies have enough chits to go around.

[IIo4Tu]

it seems to me that such spending on diplomacy against experienced players will have sad consequences, especially given the randomness of these events

[KorutZelva]

ORIGINAL: IIo4Tu

it seems to me that such spending on diplomacy against experienced players will have sad consequences, especially given the randomness of these events

Possibly! But it *has* been used at a high level before. Pre-nerf in War in Europe I had finished second of the 2018 Tourney (a single defeat vs human-cyborg Sugar... and it was a close one). Which is why I take credit for the diplo nerf the following game.

[KorutZelva]

Turn 19, Jan 1941

Greece on the ropes, more troop movement on the USSR border. UK takes abandoned Massawa.

Japanese troops on the frontline have low-ish supply accross the front. Even in the north where there was little to no figthing. Have some of the HQs been sent on transport ships?