So we get to celebrate one year of this, rather large, mistake. I'm just over automatic defeat (HWM test) and 170 short of a sudden victory (I have 3 turns to reach the next test point) - I think we can all guess what that means.
Still at least the Soviets carry on fleeing to the Urals, thats another 9,000 refusing to fight any more.

What remains of them are both busy and nosy.
But the pocket from last turn held.

Spot the first appearance of non-Gds Rifle Corps, so can assume there are at least 16 of the damn things. Actually found #18 around Orel. A lot seem to be facing AGN and AGC.

Anyway, in reality I think this is the turn I know I've lost with no remaining illusions. Couldn't manage an encirclement at Orel but should manage something next turn. Goal really is to keep the Soviets busy on multiple sectors so that hopefully one remains weak.

1 and 4 Pzr tried to generate some sort of small pocket west of the Don. Again too many reserve reactions and increasingly strong second lines means I have to concentrate too much even to make a small gap.

Mostly infantry attacks along the Donets.

To put things in context, that is the state of my on map Pzr and tank formations (incl Rumanian and Hungarian units). 11A was really hit in the Sevastopol battles so won't be available for at least another 3 turns.

Tank pools (German only), including stuff out of production. There is no practical way to recover my losses or those under-strength divisions.

Guess you need to take re-assurance where you find it. At least this ratio looks ok.

And I get the Italian reinforcements, at the worst that gives me some flank/rear protection.
But time to be realistic about where this is going.
Current VP chart, so I pass the October HWM loss. I can't see how I'm going to take more than 2 more of that list (& maybe not even that), so lets say I get a HWM of 610.

So for the Soviets to regain the initiative they need to knock 61 off this. They are well placed for time bonus so each lost city will be 16 not 10. Given where the front is, Stalino, Orel (I am assuming I will take that), Kharkov and Kursk are all easy losses (the +6 for Kursk is already claimed). That is then 58, a few for theatre boxes and we are looking at an initiative change in say October/November.

Given what I've not taken, the time bonuses are then allocated. This is going to be around +42 (locations never taken that were taken).
The Soviets then get the VP for the cities they hold at that stage. That is going to be well over 400 (in my Soviet AAR I had 340 on initiative change and the only ahistoric hold was Stalingrad).
So, a loss in early 1943?
Should note not blaming the game system. I made enough mistakes in the second half of the summer of 1941 to have set this up. The reality is I have turned 1942 into 1943, in reality I should go over to the strategic defensive now and try to maximise my options in that phase rather than lose more making increasingly limited gains.











