Effectiveness comes in because the only force with enough air power to support breaking the blockade is the US carrier fleet. But by the time the Yorktown and Saratoga can reach the area they are at effectiveness of 58% which is no match for Kido Butai that has been resting in Rabaul and will have an effectiveness of at least 85%. The US other two carriers are at 87% but if they combine and move near Noumea they will be considerably lower than that. While Kido Butai will probably be over 90% when it responds. Six more effective carriers with two LBA units against four US carriers some with very low effectiveness will be a cake walk.

