Insanity. Obscenity. Indecency. ITAKLinus (A) vs DesertWolf101 (J)

[Alfred]

Let's see if this clarifies the previously linked threads.[;)]


1. Technically there is no >100% TOE.


The number listed next to the TOE is a percentage value of all the devices currently in the LCU compared to what would be present if the LCU were fully constituted in accordance with it's TOE template. For various reasons, an LCU might currently have more devices than are authorised by it's TOE template. Those additional devices might not even be included in the TOE template. An example might be a divisional LCU which was broken down into bns/regts/bdes in the editor by the scenario designer, if reassembled together on map by the player into it's parent divisional unit, the sum of the various sub components (even when adhering to their sub component TOEs) results in the parent divisional LCU containing more devices than the division's TOE authorisation.


2. Surplus devices are attrited.


Devices in a LCU which are surplus to the TOE, either because there are more of them than the TOE authorisation level, or they are not included n the formal TOE template, are not automatically removed. Instead they receive no further replacements and thus eventually as a result of attrition the LCU is brought back down to it's authorised TOE. The exception is when the player forces a manual upgrade of the existing LCU TOE to a new TOE. NB, don't confuse a TOE upgrade with a device upgrade, the two are separate concepts.


3. Allied Monthly Build rate is a theoretical construct.


In simple terms the build rate you see against a device is, for the purposes of determining the quantum produced that day, is (x/30) where x+the listed figure. To this is added the randoms and the rounding down. There is never a guarantee that the listed theoretical monthly build rate will transfer exactly to production. Allied players need to also not overlook infusions into the pools of devices from the special convoys and unit disbanding.


4. Multiple replacement sources.


The device replacement loop cycle, which I have previously explained (incorporating dev commentary) in the forum, is quite complex. It most definitely is not limited to 1 replacement device per unit per cycle. Under best conditions a LCU can draw multiple replacements from multiple supply sources. Proximity to suitable supply sources is the single most important consideration but definitely not the only relevant factor.


Alfred

[ITAKLinus]

Alfred, mind_messing, your precious replies deserve a later post. Thank you for the time you have put in addressing my doubts and misunderstanding about allied device production system.

[center]28-29 JANUARY 1942
TURN 53-54[/center]


I.NOPAC

Completed the transfer of an ENG unit to Kodiak, so that they can join their friends already there and improve the infrastructure more quickly.

Soon, I'll buy a couple of infantry companies to do minor harassment landings.


II.CENPAC

An xAK is sunk by enemy subs near PH, but a couple of large and important convoys leave PH safely.

On the West Coast, some LCUs with target Christmas Island have arrived: I'll send them there and bring the LCU currently defending the island, part of the 25th Infantry Division, to Suva.

Americal Infantry Division will be loaded on the fastest transports soon. It's going to Australia in all likelihood.


III.SOPAC

Omar has decided to withdraw his ships from Noumea area, knowing he doesn't have air cover. I launched various bombing runs on Koumac (CL Adelaide) and Noumea proper (2xCA). Not many damages but I'm going to bomb again in few turns. I wand to: A) destroy Noumea's AF; B) make him consume SUPPLIES; C) elicit a reaction from IJN remaining heavy cruisers in Rabaul.

I am also in the process of sending very small LCUs to various bases between Luganville and Efate. Here the logic is fairly simple: investing some AVs there has a net positive result in terms of IJN efforts to capture them. Mostly, I want to keep those bases under my control for some time avoiding those pesky FastTransportTF invasions. If I can hold them until KB comes to the area, I will deem the reinforcement operation a success.

More importantly, I'm defending and developing Raoul Island and Norfolk Island, two important NavS bases right now. I plan to transform Norfolk Island in a nice AF lvl4-5 to allow 2E bombing runs of Noumea.

While two convoys are unloading 250,000ton of FUEL in Melbourne, a convoy with 210,000ton of SUPPLIES is approaching.


IV.DEI

Omar captures Lautem (Timor East) and sends reinforcements to Koepang (Timor West), which will fall soon. In Java I still hold Soerebaja but won't last long.
Many cargoes are moving everywhere and I do suspect a naval action in the Indian Ocean, but I might be wrong. The presence of so many cargoes and troop transports in Singapore and in its proximity for sure indicates a Japanese offensive, but it can be either toward the Indian Ocean OR Australian West Coast.


V.CBI

Here I'm losing badly.

China.
On the 28th I manage to stand on Chungking's skies with a single group of P39Ds downing 7 A6M2 and 1 Oscar-Ic for 3 losses (+2 ops) of their own.
Omar decides on the 29th to launch a massive bombardament of Chungking's AF, while I placed there B17s from India and I do bomb Ichang, main IJAAF bomber base. Damages are relatively few on both sides. On the 29th, however, I also manage to ambush 10 Sally-IIas and I down them all, which is a good news.
The problem here is that I am going to lose Chengdu very soon and that's, quite frankly, another pain in the butt.
South of Chungking I seem to hold my ground, while on the mountains WEST of Sian I somehow repulsed all IJA attempts to pass.

In Burma, I launched on the 28th and 29th some B17s from Rangoon to Bangkok, defended by awful Nates. I damaged 17 points of HI and lost 2 ops B17s, which is a good result.
Given the distances involved (9 hexes from Rangoon), I cannot sweep those Nates out of the skies, which somehow impairs my bombing efforts.

India is going fairly well. I don't think I can hold the entire IJA, but I can definitely defend myself from a 7-8 divisions invasion. I have several thousands AVs spread across key locations and my troops are nicely getting stronger day after day.
Fighter situation good. Bomber situation horrible.
Celyon has been left to its own devices, but two brigades (200AV circa) are arriving there soon. The aim here is to make a landing costly for the Japanese. I believe he will eventually use the southernmost base of the island as landing point and I plan to defend it relatively well: bad terrain and 250AV can probably hold for a while a couple of IJA divisions.
Soon, major reinforcements will arrive and I'm satisfied with the current state of affairs in the subcontinent.


VI.OTHER

In general, I think I am somehow faring better in the last couple of weeks. Omar's superiority in matériel is improbably huge, but my pilots are getting better and key locations are getting defended. My general aim of obliging him to bring the big hammer wherever he goes might have positive results over the mid-run.

My initial worry for SOPAC is gradually being lowered by each of the many convoys reaching Australia and Fiji Islands.

India itself seems fine, even though I wouldn't bet on its survival should IJA invade it en masse.

China is my big problem as usual. Somehow, I managed to save Chungking and to block the thrust SOUTH of it which would have proven ruinous to me. On the other side, the fall of Chengdu is going to be a very hard blow to my already small SUPPLY production levels.
To make matters even worse, OIL/FUEL is not flowing from the NORTH and my stocks won't last forever. Actually, they'll last few months only (and that's the optimistic view).
I still hold Changsha area and I have relevant forces in Sian, sligthly reducing the impact of Chengdu loss.
The battle for Chungking Plateu has just started, but I feel like I won't win it. Such is life I guess.

Now the main target for me is to make China last as long as possible.

I lost the theater. No doubts about that. However, I can make its conquest painful enough and long enough to tie many IJAAF and IJA assets to the place. Actually, I'm even keeping tied the two large (45) A6M2 groups and various Betty/Nell groups.

[Alfred]

A supply cost:benefit analysis of basing Allied 4E in China in 1942 rarely comes out on the positive side.

Alfred

[ITAKLinus]

ORIGINAL: Alfred

Let's see if this clarifies the previously linked threads.[;)]


1. Technically there is no >100% TOE.


The number listed next to the TOE is a percentage value of all the devices currently in the LCU compared to what would be present if the LCU were fully constituted in accordance with it's TOE template. For various reasons, an LCU might currently have more devices than are authorised by it's TOE template. Those additional devices might not even be included in the TOE template. An example might be a divisional LCU which was broken down into bns/regts/bdes in the editor by the scenario designer, if reassembled together on map by the player into it's parent divisional unit, the sum of the various sub components (even when adhering to their sub component TOEs) results in the parent divisional LCU containing more devices than the division's TOE authorisation.


2. Surplus devices are attrited.


Devices in a LCU which are surplus to the TOE, either because there are more of them than the TOE authorisation level, or they are not included n the formal TOE template, are not automatically removed. Instead they receive no further replacements and thus eventually as a result of attrition the LCU is brought back down to it's authorised TOE. The exception is when the player forces a manual upgrade of the existing LCU TOE to a new TOE. NB, don't confuse a TOE upgrade with a device upgrade, the two are separate concepts.


3. Allied Monthly Build rate is a theoretical construct.


In simple terms the build rate you see against a device is, for the purposes of determining the quantum produced that day, is (x/30) where x+the listed figure. To this is added the randoms and the rounding down. There is never a guarantee that the listed theoretical monthly build rate will transfer exactly to production. Allied players need to also not overlook infusions into the pools of devices from the special convoys and unit disbanding.


4. Multiple replacement sources.


The device replacement loop cycle, which I have previously explained (incorporating dev commentary) in the forum, is quite complex. It most definitely is not limited to 1 replacement device per unit per cycle. Under best conditions a LCU can draw multiple replacements from multiple supply sources. Proximity to suitable supply sources is the single most important consideration but definitely not the only relevant factor.


Alfred

Thanks again Alfred for the very precise reply.

What puzzles me is that, in the example of the 105mm Howitzers, some LCUs out in the bush got the device upgrade AND went over 100%, while the third part of the LCU in Chungking got nothing. It's quite bizarre, because I don't grasp how to prevent devices from being fuelled in excessive numbers to some LCUs, while other ones are deprived of them.
My understanding is that A and B parts of the LCU got the upgrade to the 105mm Howitzers and THEN also took non-needed replacements in the same turn, messing up the pool of the device. I'd like to understand how it is possible that the third part of the LCU hasn't done the upgrade contextually to the other two, but I think it had "reinforcements delayed" and this has prevented it from upgrading. At least, that's my only plausible explanation.

To make matters moer interesting, there is indeed the subject of allied device production. I understand that the "monthly production" is indicative, what I don't understand is how is it possible that such large divercencies happen. If you are meant to have 40 squads produced per month and you get 41, fine. However, if the production rate is six per month of 37mm AT Guns and you get thirteen, well, that's more than twice and it generates some questions.

In line of principle, what I don't understand are the underlying factors leading to such an overproduction of some devices, without any apparent logic. I underline "apparent". For sure there is some reason if the actual production deviates so much from the theoretical one.

Replacement cycles are quite understood. My main issue being the absence of replacements themselves, but such is life as allied player in Jan '42 I suspect.

ORIGINAL: Alfred

A supply cost:benefit analysis of basing Allied 4E in China in 1942 rarely comes out on the positive side.

Alfred

Definitely a bad cost-benefit ratio if base permanently in China. If they jump to China, make a deep bombing run and go back to India it's feasible in my opinion. Especially now, they're the only planes which can face any kind of Japanese CAP and push through it damaging many IJAAF/IJNAF fighters in the process.
I wanted to try to bomb his main base and catch his bombers on the ground in order to delay them for maybe a turn. There is the massive issue of Chengdu being lost soon and I am trying to do whatever I can to send in my reinforcements, which are however exposed to IJAAF bombings.

[ITAKLinus]

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

Now, I am approaching the topic with the idea of upgrading small LCUs first (such as some brigades) and then go for whole divisions.

My recommendation would be to focus on divisions first, as overall they see the largest improvement in firepower.

Once you have approx. 120 squads of the requisite type in the pool, you can quickly canter through the vast majority of frontline combat strength in short order.

You're probably right. I will change my approach completely and for divisions. I'll need a couple of LCU disband but it's better.

My doubt is whether the unit will try to fill up its TOE during the upgrade if replacements are set on "off". In other words, if a division which has currently 210 CMF Militia Squads and should have 324, can be split in A/B/C and upgrade 70 CMF Militia Squads to 70 CMF Inf Squads or whether it does upgrade to its TOE of 108.
This is a relevant distinction, since I would risk to get stuck with a part of the division with the new infantry squads and the rest without.

Replacements are replacements and upgrades are upgrades.

By that, replacements = replace devices that I currently have in the TOE. Upgrade = upgrade devices that I currently have in the TOE.

IF replacements are set to N and upgrade to Y, those 70 CMF militia will upgrade to 70 CMF Inf.

Thanks. It simplifies pool management very much

Finally, as per the Indian Army. I roughly know its metamorphosis but for the time being I'm stuck with what I do have. In other words, I can't care, not even remotely, about Indian Inf Squads since the TOEs of my divisions are so far from being acceptable that I need every single squad wherever it can go. As soon as I will have new squads in the production pipeline, I guess I'll start caring.
I'm quite paranoid about tanks however. As far as I understand, there is the very high chance of messing up and I read during my researches about upgrades this very funny thread (I love the title so much!): https://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.a ... %2Cupgrade

Allied AFV pools are one area it pays to spend some time to get a good understanding about, as there's a great deal of nuance in how the TOEs and AFV upgrade paths develop. The US is relatively straightforward as you'll use Stuarts and Sherman's, you'll have more than enough of both, and that's largely it for most of the war.

The Commonwealth pools are where it gets complicated, as you've large numbers of the improvised AFV's in effectively all the Commonwealth armoured units on Dec 7th.

The general theme (from memory) is:

- The Matilda and Stuart (the British model) is the first step to enable the upgrades away from the woeful improvised AFV models.
"improvised"?! Ahahahah so far I thought they were "Improved" AFVs... [:D][:D][:D]
Matildas are meant to go to Australian tank units. Stuarts are for India defence, where I can afford longer transition periods.
- The Stuart in particular is a very pressured model as it's used in the vast majority of Commonwealth armoured units.

- In early 1943, most of the British regimental sized armour formations lose all their tanks and become purely support formations. This is a worthwhile change, as it will give you some depth to your AFV pool to keep the large brigade sized formations in action
To me it seems like tank pools for allied nations are fairly deep already. Am I missing something?

- Take care what units get upgrades and reinforcements. If it withdraws, it gets nothing. They'll get shipped off to Europe and take the good stuff with them.

- Many Commonwealth AFV's have a low production rate, but relatively large numbers arrive via the convoy system. As tempting as it is to go wild when the convoys arrive, I'd caution some restraint.

- Related to the last point, you can always upgrade AFV's, but never downgrade. With that in mind, it's worth considering the numbers you have in the pool and what production of any model defined as an upgrade is like. It is very easy to be in a situation where older models are gathering dust in the pool and frontline units are understrength due to having to compete for the newest model defined in their TOE.

My vision is to "exhaust" every model. Basically, I do upgrade few LCUs right now switching from awful stuff to real tanks and then let these tanks' pools exhaust before I do upgrades. In line of principle, I guess I'll keep some tankette/light tank units in order to finish the initial pools and then upgrade one LCU at time.
In other words: I upgrade one LCU to the new model and let the other ones, still using the old, consume the tanks returned to the pool from the first one. Then I do lke that for a second and a third and so on.


Finally, the best bit of advice I can give is to consider the context in which Allied AFV's operate. The Churchill may be a more effective tank compared to the M3 Grant, for example, but as far as the anti-armour capability of the typical IJ formation is concerned, both tank models can operate with a large degree of impunity. As far as your IJA infantry division is concerned, they're effectively King Tigers. As tempting as it is to have every unit with a full TOE of Churchill's, it's massive overkill for the vast majority of combat situations, and won't be the most efficient use of AFVs.

The same goes for armour-on-armour engagements to a large extent. Tanks that were significantly out of date in the European and African theatres in 1942 can more than hold their own with the IJA armour line-up (which is rarely going to be able to mass the same sort of numbers as their Allied counterparts).

That's precisely my understanding. As far as tanks are concerned, once you have something of the first generation you're already fine. Matilda/Lee/Valentine are already more than a problem for IJA tanks and there is no pressure to get into the frame newer tanks until the older ones have finished their replacements.
Have you noticed some change with the IJA tank upgrade of JUN-44, by the way? As far as I can tell, the Type 3 Medium Tank doesn't change too much the balance. It has 120 of a/arm but apparently it doesn't really stand a chance against Allied tank formations. It's just out of curiosity, since right now we're quite far away from its introduction

[ITAKLinus]

[center]30 JANUARY 1942
TURN 55[/center]



I.NOPAC

He lands in Semisopochnoi Island, place of which I didn't suspect the existence of. For those like me, it's a dot right EAST of Amchitka Island.


II.CENPAC

Nothing new.

A convoy in SF loaded 150,000ton of SUPPLIES in a day and now it's the turn of TKs. Then, I'll load various LCUs. Finally, the convoys will leave the area together with heavy escort since it's plenty of IJN subs and the threat of armed merchant cruisers still haunts me.

Apparently, he has no NavS SOUTH of Tarawa at least. Various groups of APDs and DDs have passed between Canton Island and Tabiteuea and nobody got ever spotted.
I leverage on this and land the Fanning Island Det on Baker Island. They have no pretense of defending the place, but can provide a nice NavS spot.

In general, it would be great to land in Canton Island itself and retake the place but I don't have any troops prepared, let alone shipping or PPs to buy out all the support LCUs.


III.SOPAC

His NavS is, I think, modest at best. I am trying to be spotted with my TFs hanging out SOUTH of Tulagi and he hasn't spotted me in few turns. I take the initiative and disband an AVP in Rennel Island, after the one in Ontong Java got discovered and I had to evacuate it.
Those catalinas are quite helpful in giving me notice of any movement toward Noumea.

In Australia, I'll let the 1st Australian Division upgrade to CMF Inf Squads and send it to Brisbane as defensive measure.


IV.DEI

KB is moving NORTH on the WEST coast of Java for unknown reasons. Yesterday, he sunk two Dutch AMs SOUTH of Soerabaja and today he's WEST of Tjilatjap. Many convoys spotted sailing toward Batava, where he will for sure re-embark the divisions which have conquered the island. Soerabaja is under heavy bombing every single day and my AA does very little. My fighters have been smashed long time ago and so they're out of the picture.

In Luzon everything is quiet. Same in Mindanao.

Balikpapan-Samarinda oilfields will be assaulted soon, I guess.


V.CBI

USN CVs will reach Colombo tomorow (hopefully).

In the Indian Ocean I currently have:
- 3 USN CVs
- 1 RN CV
- 1 CVL (Hermes, converted to fighter carrier with 18 Wildcats on board)
- 13 CA
- 2 CL
- 35 DD

Force Z is instead going to Perth (40hexs to destination), from where it will reach the SOPAC and engage those three remaining IJN CAs in Rabaul should they move SOUTH again.

I don't think I can force any kind of battle with the IJN if they come to Celyon with the KB as it seems. However, I will leave the CVs and the CAs in the area, compelling the Japanese to move heavily escorted, which I deem fine all considered.

One indian brigade landed in Colombo yesterday. I am loading the ones for Addu (18hexes) and Diego Garcia (28hexes) today at Cochin. I might even be able to ship my troops there before the Japanese hammer falls. We'll see.

In Karachi I have almost put together the 6th Australian Division, a very good unit. I'll place it as a strategic reserve in Hyderabad.



China is a disaster as usual. In the skies I have another decent turn downing 9 A6M2 (+4 ops) for 6 H81-A3 (+2 ops) of my own. IJAAF bombers get various FlaK losses as well, but my very high CAP didn't intervene (I prefer to kill his A6M2 pilots).

As you can see, Chengtu is going to fall very very soon.

NORTH of Chikhiang, in the selected hex, I made the figthening discover that he has two IJA divisions for a grand total of 810AV against my 940AV. I think I can hold the hilly ground with the ratio of forces, but his firepower is very high and the hilly grounds doesn't help much against air attacks.
On the flip side, my three Chinese Corps over there have 83 81mm Mortars and 15 75mm Guns behind field fortifications lvl1 (soon 2 I suspect). I might even manage to hold my ground.
Exp 42/36/40 and morale 43/59/60. All three leaders have land skill=53 (not that bad for chinese standards).

With the hill defensive bonus, I think I can defend the hex until some reinforcements arrive from other areas. I have 442AV which can go there from Changteh (where they can be easily replaced by some other Chinese Corps of similar efficiency) and 105AV from Chkikhiang itself.
I don't think I need the 442AV Corps, but I suspect Omar will start his usual trekking on hilly hex off-roard EAST of the one where we're opposing each other.

He has three infantry divisions in the area and I think he split one of those (the one facing WEST) and he plans to use the other two to push down SOUTH with the B and C fragment of the first one securing his rear and doing flaking movements.
I want to prevent this.
If he has only one division fraction in the hex SOUTH of Chungking, I will put together enough troops to repel it two hexes EAST and gain a defensive position behind the river in good terrain. In the meanwhile, troops from Changteh will provide rear cover for the ones engaging NORTH of Chikhiang, while troops from Chikhiang will go directly in the stack where there is the fight.


In the meanwhile, two tank units are reaching Paoshan tomorrow. They will move to Tsuyung and from there via strategic movement on major road to Chungking, where they will receive some replacement and constitute the core of the Chinese Tank Army [:D][:D][:D]

Remarkably, the three RAF Base Forces I have in Chungking have upgraded and now possess radar, which is being very helpful in the defence of the city. Also, they boast 24 3,7" AA guns, giving some trouble to those Sallies bombing the AF: today 5 have been shot down and 2 ops apparently.
In terms of AV, I have only 2,500AV in Chungking proper. Some of them are meant to secure the three mountain bases between Burma and China, but most of the AV in the city are there to rest and defend the place from IJA probable moves.



VI.OTHER

Next turn is the 01-FEB-1942. Turn 57.

Air losses are bad but not horrible. 841 (J) to 1,335 (A) for a ratio of 1:1.6
The breakdown is:
A2A => 425(J) to 637(A) for a ratio of 1:1.5
FlaK => 120 (J) to 41(A) for a ratio of 1:0.3
Ground => 42 (J) to 218(A) for a ratio of 1:5.2
Ops => 316 (J) to 439(A) for a ratio of 1:1.4

It's quite obvious that my big problem is represented by the high levels of ground losses, mostly happened in the DEI, where bases have been overrun and I lost the planes damaged with them.
I think I'm doing relatively good in the A2A, given the horrendous fighters I've had at disposal until few turns ago when P39Ds and Hurricanes finally arrived.
FlaK is quite straightforward and he has lost a good amount of planes due to it.
Ops losses are surprising: given the continuous need to rebase many planes in the DEI, I suffered heavily from ops but I'm pleased to see that the IJAAF/IJNAF are suffering as well and not little.

What's good is that these numbers are in general being better and better for the allied side. The great massacre has been the month of December '41, while now we are trading blows on more equal terms (but I'm still heavily disadvantaged).


At sea, things are bad for xAKs. I lost a grand total of 304 ships, mostly small ships such as AMc, but also many xAKs.
As per warships:

BB/CV/CVL/CVE/CS: no losses on either side.
CA: 2 IJN CAs sunk and 1 USN CA sunk (CA Houston)
CL: 0 IJN CLs sunk (maybe the Oi) and 9 Allied CL sunk (2 USN + 1 NZ + 3 Dutch + 2 RN + 1 Australian)
DD: 5 IJN sunk (way more for sure) and 32 (!!!) Allied sunk (18 USN, including 6 in PH and other ones around it in the initial strikes + 6 Dutch + 6 RN + 2 Australian)

I think I am fine with the CL losses given the low value of the ships which went down but I lost too many DDs.
DD losses have been dramatically increased by the fact that he bombed PH for quite a while and sunk many ships over there. 7th December, in general, has been a massacre for my navies.

In any case, I deem a great success to be in advantage in terms of CA sunk, of which he won't get any over the course of the war.

DD losses aren't crippling so far and I'm fine with them, but I definitely cannot afford to continue this string of losses. Actually, I'm not concerned at all by the losses per-se, rather by the amount of USN DDs which went down.



Finally, we're at 14,618 (J) to 7,696(A) VPs. A ratio of 1.9:1. Far away from 4:1 autovictory level but not good nevertheless. It will worsen horribly once I lose Rangoon and China starts bleeding even more.
If he captures Celyon or Perth area the amount of VPs is roughly the same (around 800). I don't think he'd be able to hold Celyon into '43, but Perth would be more problematic to approach. At least, I've never had to do so and I haven't checked the possibilities.

A fall of NZ would instead be a disaster VP-wise and that's why I want to keep a tight grip over Fiji Islands and possibly the New Hebrides.

A bombing campaign over Australian industrial cities would net him a very large bunch of VPs, but I'm taking my measures to prevent this and limit it as much as I can.
The basic idea is to bring as many AAs as possible in Australia and create a defensive line around Brisbane-Toowoomba, two bases from where he could send bombers on Sidney and nearby bases.
Brisbane-Toowoomba line has the big problem of being easy to encircle, but he'd have to trigger the emergency reinforcements. They're not that good or useful as far as I know. Especially, they lack the Spitfire VIIIs found in Indian ones and they rather count on Spitfire Vs.
In any case, I won't go all in in Brisbane-Toowoomba line, of course. I'd just create a solid position in the sector, ready to be manned in case he starts approaching from the NORTH. My problem is the relative lack of ENG in Australia. He could still bomb me from Condemine, but it's in an awfully exposed position and I deem feasible to contain him over there.




EDIT: forgot to attach the image as usual... [8|]

[ITAKLinus]

Now I have a real problem:

[ITAKLinus]

KB is in Batavia, which is roughly 49hexes of navigation from where I am with the Enterprise.

It means that it can run in full speed two turns and do 36hexes (he would go with three CVs and leave behind the slow Kaga), arriving within reach of Celyon.

I can do one of the following:
A) disband in Koggala, hope the fire goes down and I get some fuel and then move to Cape Town
B) move to Colombo, do some random fix for a turn and then move up either on the coast of India in Bombay's general direction or towards Cape Town
C) move WEST, hope the 5 fires go down over the turn resolution, do a random refuel from the other ships there and hope nobody remains without and finally head toward Cape Town


I suspect going to Colombo and from there toward Bombay is the best solution, since it would in all likelihood prevent KB from reaching me.

Turn 1: Colombo. KB is 31hexes away from Koggala in full speed.
Turn 2: full speed NORTH if KB goes in full speed again. KB is 13hexes away from Koggala and roughly 23 from the Enterprise.
Turn 3: KB goes in normal speed for 13hexes and I go in full speed again hoping not to sink in the meantime. I likely do 6hexes only by this time and I should be 15-16hexes away from KB. KB which doesn't have infinite fuel hopefully.


On the other side.
Turn 1: Colombo. KB 31hexes away in full speed.
Turn 2: after refuelling, I move 6hexes WEST in normal speed. If KB doesn't go full speed, then, it's roughly 24hexes away. If it goes in full speed, it's 19hexes away.
Turn 3: I keep going WEST for 6hexes in normal speed. KB can go in normal speed again and it should be 17hexes away (if normal the previous turn). If full the previous turn, it's 12hexes.
Turn 4: I do 6 more hexes. If KB ended at 17hexes, it ends up at 10hexes. If it ended at 12hexes, it ends up at 5hexes and big BOOM.

Basically, I need to decide how to approach the situation.

I suppose the best solution is to go to Colombo and see what the KB does. Koggala is a nice alternative but: A) it has only 1,000ton of FUEL; B) it's lvl1 harbor doesn't look good for what I need; C) I wouldn't put any hex between me and the KB.


Now, supposing the KB starts a chase in normal speed, I can in all likelihood avoid it. But if it goes full, it's a big damn problem as shown above.


Probably, the most promising route is the one NORTH but going in full speed. I'm 24hexes from the border of the map and I think I can reach it in 5 turns going in full speed, which is not bad, but I'd rather go NORTH toward Bombay and leave the evil KB behind due to fuel constraints.


Frankly, I don't know what to do.

[ITAKLinus]

Actually, the option of going NORTH-WEST after a turn in Colombo seems the best. In line of principle, if he follows me with KB I should be able to throw at him whatever surface asset I have and slow him down. Maybe even engage him in some bizarre night fight.

Turn 1: USN CV Colombo.
KB:
A) NORMAL SPEED 13/52hexes to Colombo;

B) FULL SPEED 18/52hexes to Colombo.



Turn 2: USN CV 6hexes NORTH-WEST of Colombo.
KB:
A.1) 26/58hexes to my position [Normal Speed T1 + Normal Speed T2];
A.2) 31/58hexes to my position [Normal Speed T1 + Full Speed T2];

B.1) 36/58hexes to my position [Full Speed T1 + Full Speed T2];
B.2) 31/58hexes to my position [Full Speed T1 + Normal Speed T2 / identical to A.2]



Turn 3: USN CV 6hexes still NORTH-WEST of Colombo.
KB:
A.1.1) 39/64hexes to my position [Normal Speed T1 + Normal Speed T2 + Normal Speed T3];
A.1.2) 44/64hexes to my position [Normal Speed T1 + Normal Speed T2 + Full Speed T3];
A.2.1) 44/64hexes to my position [Normal Speed T1 + Full Speed T2 + Normal Speed T3];
A.2.2) 49/64 to my position [Normal Speed T1 + Full Speed T2 + Full Speed T3];

B.1.1) 49/64hexes to my position [Full Speed T1 + Full Speed T1 + Normal Speed T3]
B.1.2) 54/64hexes to my position [Full Speed T1 + Full Speed T2 + Full Speed T3] = I engage with surface forces since he should have no DDs with him
B.2.1) 44/64hexes to my position [Full Speed T1 + Normal Speed T2 + Normal Speed T3]
B.2.2) 49/64hexes to my position [Full Speed T1 + Normal Speed T2 + Full Speed T3]


At this point, if he has gone in full speed more than once, he has to stop and refuel. And I can somehow escape.

If he has used full speed only once, he can still do another turn in normal speed with no problems before refuelling.
Which implies that he would be 44/64hexes from my position. I do six more hexes and we end up at 57/70hexes. Then, if he can still move forward, he reaches me at 70/76hexes.

However, he would be quite far from home ports and he wouldn't have any margin to mess up with his route.


Akagi has 8,200endurance. Or 205hexes. In normal speed. In full speed they become already only 51hexes: enough for two turns but then she's dry. And Soryu ain't better at 57hexes of autonomy in full speed.
His main issue are DDs, however. Even the most performing ones in terms of autonomy, can do just 37hexes in full speed. Two turns. Then, refuel.

Bottom line is that he can do two turns in full speed but then has to refuel, unless he wants to go forward without DDs. If he does one in full speed, then things get a little bit more messed up, but I should be able to escape.


The big, huge "if" is Enterprise's ability to keep her 6hexes per turn speed, which seems very unlikely to me. On the positive side, I'm plentiful of surface units to sacrify in case of need and it might very well end up positively for me.

[Q-Ball]

A good question!

He might not pursue at all; if it was 1 Torp hit and he didn't see "Heavy Damage", he might conclude he would never catch up and not bother. There is also an opportunity cost to pursuing you, as that's going to take KB away from whatever he has planned in the next 2 weeks, which you can bet is something.

There are alot of what-ifs in bringing KB into the IO like that....I bet he won't pursue.

If he does, however, then yes, don't hang out long in Colombo! And 1 day and move is probably best bet

Bigger issue here is that whatever surprise you intended for those CVs is lost, and they are way on the edge of the Map, and he knows it. That gives Japan complete freedom of action everywhere else.

EDIT: Also, what are LEXINGTON's airgroups doing on Enterprise? I haven't followed, is LEX also damaged somewhere? I assume not sunk, since you still have the planes......

[ITAKLinus]

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball

A good question!

He might not pursue at all; if it was 1 Torp hit and he didn't see "Heavy Damage", he might conclude he would never catch up and not bother. There is also an opportunity cost to pursuing you, as that's going to take KB away from whatever he has planned in the next 2 weeks, which you can bet is something.

There are alot of what-ifs in bringing KB into the IO like that....I bet he won't pursue.

If he does, however, then yes, don't hang out long in Colombo! And 1 day and move is probably best bet

Bigger issue here is that whatever surprise you intended for those CVs is lost, and they are way on the edge of the Map, and he knows it. That gives Japan complete freedom of action everywhere else.

EDIT: Also, what are LEXINGTON's airgroups doing on Enterprise? I haven't followed, is LEX also damaged somewhere? I assume not sunk, since you still have the planes......

Thanks for the reply!


I sent the turn. Hope she won't go down like a stone.

I did what I could. CAs from the TF disbanded in Koggala with their FPs set in Colombo&co in night NavS. They're almost 40 in total.

One ASW TF with 2 DDs leads. Another ASW TF with 2 DDs follows with trail=1hex and standoff=0. The Enterprise plus 4 DDs follows the second ASW TF. The other 3 carriers plus 6 DD as escorts follow the second ASW TF as well.
8 DDs rush in full speed from Trincomalee. Other ones rush in ASW TF patrols from Cochin where they are. 2 CA and 2 CL in Cochin go without escort to Trivandrum, where their FPs will provide additional NavS. Various bombers of various kinds are set in ASW, same goes with the embarked ones.

In the meanwhile, all the Dutch PAs go to northern Sumatra, still somehow in my hands, and do NavS, hoping to spot the KB movements from Batavia. Half a dozen subs is instead redirected from Malacca Strait to the WEST of Sumatra. In case the KB goes forward, they won't be able to intervene but they can take some revenge on either the returning IJN CVs or thier fleet oilers.
A couple of subs loaded with mines and originally headed toward the Malacca Strait are also redirected toward the Ocean WEST of Sumatra.


If she sinks, it's a mess and I'll lose the planes as well.


PS. The airgroups are messed up for various reasons. I already did the (failed) raid I wanted to do and so I don't lose any element of surprise. However, I've the very strong suspicion that the Japanese forces are indeed moving against Celyon on their own and KB is in Batavia precisely for this reason: it will cover IJN move on Celyon or wherever in the Indian Ocean.
So, he would go there anyway.
I have 4 USN and 1 RN carriers plus the old Hermes. 3 USN CVs and 1 RN CV are there (including the damaged Enterprise) and 1 USN CV is in the Pacific. In a month I get another USN CV.
Airgroups are full and pilots not-so-awfully inexperienced, but I cannot credibly fight against IJN CVs with 1xRN-CV+2xUSN-CV, even if he goes forward with only Hiryu+Soryu+Akagi, leaving behind the slower Kaga. I would have 250 planes circa vs his own 210 circa, but his pilots are stellar and mine awful in comparison. Also, I still have many terrible planes on my CVs.
In case, I'd rather gamble a pitched battle with surface fleets during nighttime. I should have more than enough CA and DD available to make him bleed a lot.

[ITAKLinus]

She survived. And apparently KB is not chasing. Apparently...

She hadn't disbanded in Colombo, so I will wait one more turn there landing the aircraft and refuelling. Many sub attacks by 2-3 IJN I-class subs.


Enterprise gained 3 minor system damage and put off two out of 5 points of fire.

I guess that now Colombo facilities will help her very much in fixing some damage the next turn. CV Saratoga got two torpedoes fired at her but missed. I count 7 IJN subs in the area.

What's funny is that they arrived precisely the turn in which my carriers moved through the area since I have been moving random small xAKL unescorted for ages over there and nobody got ever attacked.

[RangerJoe]

Once the Enterprise makes port, offload the aircraft.

[ITAKLinus]

[center]31 JANUARY - 01/02/03 FEBRUARY 1942
TURN 56-59[/center]


I.NOPAC

Nothing new. I should really pay more attention and resources to this area, but PPs are at a premium right now.


II.CENPAC

A company of USArmy troops leaves SF and will reach Christmas Island in a week or so.

An AKE is torpedoed and sunk SOUTH of Hilo.

I'm organizing another massive round of shipments to SOPAC. So far, I have loaded roughly 300,000ton of SUPPLIES and 200,000ton of FUEL in SF. Over the course of the next days, I'll load troops and more SUPPLIES/FUEL. Probably planes as well.
The idea is to send a good deal of these stuff to Fiji Islands/NZ and the rest to Australia proper.


III.SOPAC

Great movement of ships in Rabaul, where I do spot also various AKEs. I tend to believe they're really AKEs and they are meant to resupply the 3 CAs in the area. I spotted a IJN CVE moving from Ternate to Babeldaob and it might be that Omar will cover his next moves in the area with it. We'll see. It can also be the Shokaku-Class TF which has covered the landings in Noumea.

On the 2nd of February, I bomb again Noumea with my ships and I do severe damages to the port and the AF. I won't do another round of bombardaments, leaving my forces ready to counter IJN next moves.

A small group of Australian commandos is landed in Efate.

Melbourne is unloading a relevant amount of SUPPLIES (230,000ton) and FUEL (250,000ton) coming from India/CapeTown and USA respectively. More FUEL and SUPPLIES from India/CapeTown are forecasted to arrive within a week. It's inefficient to load all these convoys in Melbourne, but they'll go back to USA together and so I'd rather keep the ships there than face the IJN sub activity in front of Sidney.


IV.DEI

On the 2nd of February I manage to repel an assault to Medan, important center for oil extraction. Rest of Sumatra is obviously a disaster and I still hold basically Medan and Sabang only as efficient bases.
Soerabaja is approached by the IJA and, on the 3rd of February, he launches an assault with over 1,600AV and gets 3:1. Next turn Soerabaja will fall. Funnily enough, I've just finished to repair the 2 B17s which remained stuck there ages ago during my bombings on Palembang.
Huge movement of troops and ships everywhere. The Japanese are up to something.

KB stayed two days in Batavia until the 2nd but it's no longer there for sure. Apparently and hopefully she's not going toward Celyon. On the 3rd of February, I have spotted 6 DDs 5hexes NORTH-EAST of Cocos Island but I think it's an unrelated move from Omar's side? Maybe he's fast transporting troops to Diego Garcia / Addu, where I know he wants to land.

Omar approaches Clark Field as well in Luzon and I hope it will last for a while.

Timor West is in my hands but it is going to fall soon.

Balikpapan and Tarakan still untouched but I suspect he won't forget to take them... [:D]


V.CBI

On the 1st of February, notoriously, the Enterprise took a torpedo in front of Koggala (Celyon) and she's not doing well. On the 2nd she reached Colombo and hopefully she'll be able to leave the area soon.
Large amounts of DDs and minor ASW vessels are around the area and I'm happy the Enterprise survived the trip to Colombo. Planes unloaded and ship disbanded in port for a turn and then I try to get my @ss out of there.

Enterprise apparently will have three months in the shipyards. I've had a rough check in Colombo and she would need 88days on "critical". Not very good. On top of this, the time to reach Cape Town, which is not that small at her speed of 14knts.
In any case, she repaired all the fires and 9 points of minor flooding during the day in Colombo.


In the meanwhile, many aircraft start to arrive in India from the East Coast and various reinforcements are unloaded in Karachi.

My current logic is to defend key cities such as Madras and Calcutta with troops which need to rest/replenish, while the two Australian Divisions and the 18th British Division will act as strategic reserve in the hinterland.
I decided not to send further reinforcements to Celyon, especially considering the likely Japanese move in few turns from now.

Diego Garcia is receiving troops, however. The bottom line is that Diego Garcia and mainland India are to be held, while Celyon can be sacrified for a while. In the same spirit, I'll start shipping reinforcements to Addu. Nothing too serious for either Diego Garcia or Addu, just enough troops to hold them in face of a moderate (regimental/brigade-sized IJA landing).

Also, the 3rd Chinese Corps, which was already being shipped to Australia on fast xAPs is sent back and will remain in India for the time being.


Burma is still static.


In China is a massacre as usual.
On the 3rd Omar launches an assault NORTH of Chikhiang, where 950 scared Chinese AVs defend their ground against 1,200 IJA AVs (two divisions and two fragments of a third) inflicting heavy disablements (280 inf squads) to the enemy in his 1:2 assault. However,we have similar "destroyed" squads and I receive 110 disablements as well.
In general, however, my troops are getting slaugthered everywhere and I will lose Chengdu, where Omar hasn't attacked the city yet for some reason.

On the 3rd, also, he intercepts my bombers and shots down a good chunk of Blenheim I (6) and SB-III (7) over Ichang.

Finally, my partisans behind his lines are finally getting smashed and I am now in the process of organizing another wave.

[RangerJoe]

I would not rely on the maximum speed for the Enterprise. If you get rid of the minor flooding and the engine damage, it will move faster but still the ship should move on cruise speed.

[Q-Ball]

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

I would not rely on the maximum speed for the Enterprise. If you get rid of the minor flooding and the engine damage, it will move faster but still the ship should move on cruise speed.

This, and overall I would keep ENTERPRISE in Colombo long enough to finish temporary repairs...that will get the speed up for a run to CT, and eliminate any risk of the pumps failing or something. Plus, after a few days he may give up on flooding the area with subs; there must be a bunch nearby looking for her

Now, if KB pops up in the Indian Ocean, all bets are off and it's time to leave immediately!

[RangerJoe]

Not just that, after the minor repairs are done, look at the situation and see how long it will take to repair the ship. Also, critical repair speed may not be the fastest. Plus, depending upon the Naval Support there, consider keeping the Enterprise out if the repair shipyard until all of the minor damage is finished. The naval support will not help the repairs in the shipyard.