ORIGINAL: Professor Chaos
Well far be it for a lowly newb like me to dispute Alfred, but one is tempted to call shenanigans. I re-ran some turns, and here are combat reports from three days of air attacks by Devastators equipped with bombs against various Japanese TFs in May 1942. Every such attack is recorded here:
Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Deboyne Islands at 103,135
Weather in hex: Moderate rain
Raid spotted at 9 NM, estimated altitude 18,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 4 minutes
Allied aircraft
TBD-1 Devastator x 15
No Allied losses
Japanese Ships
xAK Genoa Maru, Bomb hits 1, on fire
Aircraft Attacking:
15 x TBD-1 Devastator bombing from 15000 feet
Naval Attack: 2 x 500 lb SAP Bomb
Massive explosion on xAK Genoa Maru
Heavy smoke from fires obscuring xAK Genoa MaruAfternoon Air attack on TF, near Port Moresby at 97,132
Weather in hex: Light cloud
Raid spotted at 14 NM, estimated altitude 13,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 7 minutes
Allied aircraft
F4F-3 Wildcat x 19
TBD-1 Devastator x 15
No Allied losses
Japanese Ships
TB Hayabusa, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk
Aircraft Attacking:
15 x TBD-1 Devastator bombing from 10000 feet
Naval Attack: 2 x 500 lb GP Bomb
Heavy smoke from fires obscuring TB HayabusaMorning Air attack on TF, near Goodenough Island at 101,131
Weather in hex: Heavy cloud
Raid spotted at 4 NM, estimated altitude 18,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 1 minutes
Allied aircraft
F4F-4 Wildcat x 19
TBD-1 Devastator x 15
No Allied losses
Japanese Ships
xAP Haruna Maru
xAP Hie Maru, Bomb hits 6, and is sunk
Aircraft Attacking:
15 x TBD-1 Devastator bombing from 15000 feet *
Naval Attack: 2 x 500 lb SAP Bomb
Heavy smoke from fires obscuring xAP Hie MaruMorning Air attack on TF, near Deboyne Islands at 103,134
Weather in hex: Clear sky
Raid spotted at 16 NM, estimated altitude 20,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 8 minutes
Allied aircraft
F4F-3 Wildcat x 19
TBD-1 Devastator x 15
No Allied losses
Japanese Ships
BB Kirishima, Bomb hits 4
BB Kongo, Bomb hits 2
Aircraft Attacking:
15 x TBD-1 Devastator bombing from 15000 feet *
Naval Attack: 2 x 500 lb SAP BombMorning Air attack on TF, near Deboyne Islands at 103,134
Weather in hex: Clear sky
Raid spotted at 14 NM, estimated altitude 17,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 7 minutes
Allied aircraft
F4F-4 Wildcat x 19
TBD-1 Devastator x 15
No Allied losses
Japanese Ships
DD Kuretake, Bomb hits 1, on fire, heavy damage
Aircraft Attacking:
15 x TBD-1 Devastator bombing from 15000 feet
Naval Attack: 2 x 500 lb SAP BombAfternoon Air attack on TF, near Goodenough Island at 101,131
Weather in hex: Thunderstorms
Raid spotted at 11 NM, estimated altitude 17,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 5 minutes
Allied aircraft
F4F-3 Wildcat x 19
F4F-4 Wildcat x 19
TBD-1 Devastator x 15
No Allied losses
Japanese Ships
xAP Haruna Maru, Bomb hits 2, heavy fires, heavy damage
PB Chitose Maru
Aircraft Attacking:
15 x TBD-1 Devastator bombing from 15000 feet *
Naval Attack: 2 x 500 lb SAP Bomb
Heavy smoke from fires obscuring xAP Haruna MaruAfternoon Air attack on TF, near Deboyne Islands at 103,134
Weather in hex: Severe storms
Raid spotted at 17 NM, estimated altitude 16,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 8 minutes
Allied aircraft
F4F-4 Wildcat x 19
TBD-1 Devastator x 15
No Allied losses
Japanese Ships
DD Kuretake, on fire, heavy damage
Aircraft Attacking:
15 x TBD-1 Devastator bombing from 15000 feet
Naval Attack: 2 x 500 lb SAP Bomb
In every attack except the last, the Devastators scored bomb hits from 10,000 or 15,000 feet. Even in clouds, rain, and thunderstorms. Even against small ships like DDs and TBs. (The average NavB skill of the squads (Lexington, Saratoga, Hornet) ranged from 40 to 63). Two of these attacks scored 20% hits from 15,000 feet.
Facts constitute such a disarming weapon against opinionated polemicists. Seven combat report extracts, not one showing there is a problem. Let's go through each combat and allow the facts to speak for themselves.
#1 at hex 103,135
* No CAP to disrupt the bombers aiming
* Weather not great but not the worst possible, would likely have some disruption impact on the bombers aiming
* Target is a solitary xAK with very weak AA, most unlikely to have disrupted the bombers aiming
* Target bomb evasion rating is poor
* Altitude is 15k, not the best for aiming but not one which makes it impossible to hit a ship
Result = 1 hit out of 30 bombs dropped
#2 at hex 97,132
* No CAP to disrupt the bombers aiming
* Weather is excellent, in fact the best possible in the game, perfect for aiming bombs
* Target is a solitary TB with weak AA, most unlikely to have disrupted the bombers aiming
* Target bomb evasion rating is good
* Altitude is 10k, not too far off the ideal range for level bomb aiming
Result = 1 hit out of 30 bombs dropped
#3 at hex 101,131
* No CAP to disrupt the bombers aiming
* Weather is the next best to perfect in AE. Still very good for bomb aiming purposes
* Target is two xAP weak AA, most unlikely to have disrupted the bombers aiming
* Target bomb evasion rating is poor
* Altitude is 15k, not the best for aiming but not one which makes it impossible to hit a ship
Result = 6 hit out of 30 bombs dropped
#4 at hex 103,134
* No CAP to disrupt the bombers aiming
* Weather is excellent, in fact the best possible in the game, perfect for aiming bombs
* Target is two bqttleships with a thin AA coverge, depending on vector of enemy attack might have put up inadequate flack to significantly disrupt the bombers aiming
* Target bomb evasion rating is poor
* Altitude is 15k, not the best for aiming but not one which makes it impossible to hit a ship
Result = 6 hits out of 30 bombs dropped
#5 at hex 103,134
* No CAP to disrupt the bombers aiming
* Weather is excellent, in fact the best possible in the game, perfect for aiming bombs
* Target is a solitary DD with thin AA coverage, depending on vector of enemy attack might have put up inadequate flack to significantly disrupt the bombers aiming
* Target bomb evasion rating is good
* Altitude is 15k, not the best for aiming but not one which makes it impossible to hit a ship
Result = 1 hit out of 30 bombs dropped
#6 at hex 101,131
* No CAP to disrupt the bombers aiming
* Weather is poor, the worst possible in AE, probably did put off the bombers aiming
* Target is one xAP and one PB with very weak AA, most unlikely to have disrupted the bombers aiming
* Target bomb evasion rating is poor, except for the PB if it is a Tosa class PB in which case the evasion rating is good
* Altitude is 15k, not the best for aiming but not one which makes it impossible to hit a ship
Result = 2 hits out of 30 bombs dropped
#7 at hex 103,134
* No CAP to disrupt the bombers aiming
* Weather is poor, the worst possible in AE, probably did put off the bombers aiming
* Target is a solitary DD which has already been hit in combat #5
* Target bomb evasion rating is good when undamaged but how much it has been degraded by the earlier bomb hit is unknown
* Altitude is 15k, not the best for aiming but not one which makes it impossible to hit a ship
Result = no hits out of 30 bombs dropped
Conclusions from looking at all the facts are:
1. No CAP ever present. This is a very significant fact and removes one of the most important means to disrupt enemy bombing.
2. Predominantly only ineffective Flak in play. Again one of the main means to disrupt enemy bombing is missing.
3. Weather was mainly excellent to very good, which combined with the lack of CAP, poor Flak, and generally poor ship bomb evasion ratings, should have resulted in at least double digit bomb hits. That the number of actual hits achieved was so low under such good weather conditions and favourable battlefield conditions (practically shooting at fish in a barrel), is quite likely the result from pilot stats, plus bombing from extended range plus the always present Grigsby die rolls.
There is zero evidence presented that a mean bomb hit quantum of less than 2.5 per combat demonstrates a problem exists or that the call of shenanigans is warranted. What we do have here is another exemplar of someone, for the benefit of advancing their narrative, selectively highlighting only part of the matrix which is involved in any AE combat.
Alfred
; Julia Child