Garrison Ratios for German-Soviet Neutrality Pact

[jsetear]

I am curious about players' experiences with the garrison requirements for the Germans to break the German-Soviet Neutrality Pact. My basic issue is that it seems difficult for the Germans to muster enough force to break the pact.

am playing solitaire without any optional rules (except fractional odds). I am playing the Global War scenario. It is May-June 1941. My production strategy has been to try roughly to mimic historical strategies (e.g., I'm not trying to build a big German surface navy or an all-air-force United States).

The Soviets have placed almost all of their starting units and builds within 3 hexes of the border. They have always chosen to place their neutrality chits in the defensive box. Their total garrison strength, per the relevant box about the neutrality pact, is 68.

The Germans have placed almost all of their starting units and builds for land and air units, except for a few corps in France, within 3 hexes of the border. They always chose to place their chits in the offensive box. Their garrison strength is about 110.

I just don't see a way for the Germans to have almost 140 (136, to be precise) garrison factors in 1941. There should be enough in 1942 when the necessary ratio drops to 1:1, but of course, that is another year in the future, and the Germans historically invaded the Soviet Union in 1941.

I also looked at the Barbarossa scenario. It looks as if the Germans have a garrison strength of 55 and the Soviets have a garrison strength of 29. That leaves the Germans a few factors short of a legal invasion under the usual rules. I note that there seem to be a lot fewer land units for both sides near the border in the Barbarossa scenario than in my Global War game as it developed to the May-June 1941 turn.

So, do others often face a situation where the Germans cannot break the neutrality pact in 1941 because they cannot obtain a 2:1 ratio of garrison strengths?

Thanks!

John

[Angeldust2]

You should consider to play with optional rule Breaking the Nazi-Soviet Pact


Breaking the Nazi-Soviet Neutrality Pact [MWIF addition]
It can be very difficult for Germany to break the Nazi-Soviet neutrality pact in 1941, if the USSR puts all of
its resources into ‘stuffing’ the border with units. If you feel that it is too ahistorical for the USSR to be able to
virtually prevent (i.e., a very high probability) Germany to declare war on the USSR in 1941, then you can
select this optional rule to make it somewhat easier.
In the third year of the Nazi-Soviet neutrality pact (i.e., 1941), the value of the defender's garrison is a full
1.0 for the first six months (i.e., 3 turns) but the defender's garrison value is multipled by 0.75 of for the
second six months of the year. In all other regards, the rules for breaking neutrality pacts are unchanged.
This means:
• in 1939 the Nazi-Soviet neutrality pact can not be broken.
• in 1940 the defender's garrison value is doubled, so to break the pact, a ratio of 4:1 is needed.
• in 1941, first 6 months, the defender's garrison value is full value, so a ratio of 2:1 is needed.
• in 1941, second 6 months, the defender's garrison value is multipled by 0.75, so a ratio of 1.5:1 is needed.
• in 1942, the defender's garrison value is multipled by 0.50, so a ratio of 1:1 is needed.
• and so on as per the WIF FE rules.
The only change is the fourth bullet point above. Note that while this only affects the Nazi-Soviet neutrality pact, it
does ease breaking the pact for both sides, not just for Germany.

[Centuur]

Are there no Soviet units at the Manchurian border? What's Japan doing?

Historically speaking, there should be a good number of Soviet units there. If they are not there, Japan should try to take the Soviet resources and Vladivostok (or have at least the forces present in Manchuria. Stalin needs to react to that). And China gets conquered by Japan too if the Soviets don't have anything there to keep Japan wondering what Stalin will do in that region.

[peskpesk]

In MWIF use the new optional rule

------------------------

Breaking the Nazi-Soviet Neutrality Pact [MWIF addition]

It can be very difficult for Germany to break the Nazi-Soviet neutrality pact in 1941, if the USSR puts all of
its resources into ‘stuffing’ the border with units. If you feel that it is too ahistorical for the USSR to be able to
virtually prevent (i.e., a very high probability) Germany to declare war on the USSR in 1941, then you can
select this optional rule to make it somewhat easier.

In the third year of the Nazi-Soviet neutrality pact (i.e., 1941), the value of the defender's garrison is a full
1.0 for the first six months (i.e., 3 turns) but the defender's garrison value is multipled by 0.75 of for the
second six months of the year. In all other regards, the rules for breaking neutrality pacts are unchanged.

This means:

• in 1939 the Nazi-Soviet neutrality pact can not be broken.
• in 1940 the defender's garrison value is doubled, so to break the pact, a ratio of 4:1 is needed.
• in 1941, first 6 months, the defender's garrison value is full value, so a ratio of 2:1 is needed.
• in 1941, second 6 months, the defender's garrison value is multipled by 0.75, so a ratio of 1.5:1 is needed.

• in 1942, the defender's garrison value is multipled by 0.50, so a ratio of 1:1 is needed.
• and so on as per the WIF FE rules.

The only change is the fourth bullet point above. Note that while this only affects the Nazi-Soviet
neutrality pact, it does ease breaking the pact for both sides, not just for Germany.

[jsetear]

Many thanks to Angeldust2, Centuur, and Peskpesk for their answers.

I am afraid that I was not aware of the optional rule about garrison ratios, so I appreciate your bringing that to my attention. My bad. It confirms my suspicion that it can be difficult for the Germans to out-garrison the Soviets (or you wouldn't need the optional rule), so I may use that optional rule next time.

In terms of how much Soviet force is in Manchuria, I am playing solitaire, as I mentioned, and I must admit that I assumed that the Japanese have had their hands full in China, so I did not try to have Japan threaten the USSR-Manchuria border. But maybe the Japanese can leave only a holding force in China and threaten the Soviets. Thanks for the suggestion.

[jsetear]

Also relevant to this discussion is this excerpt from the AAR folder under, "AAR NetPlay Ready - Chapter 5: German Buildup in the East":

Breaking the Nazi-Soviet Neutrality Pact

It wasn’t until late in the Mar/Apr 1941 turn that the relative garrison levels along the Axis-Soviet border and the weather were favorable for Germany breaking the Nazi-Soviet Pact. It had taken extensive planning and resources for the Germans to generate a sufficient garrison level to break the Nazi-Soviet pact. In Figure 5-1 you can see the option to break the pact was offered to Germany in the DOW Majors phase of the 11th impulse of the Mar/Apr 1941 turn. I did so. And then I had both Germany and Italy declare war on the USSR.



The German garrison level was 102 plus 36 in offensive markers. Compared to that was the USSR garrison level of 43.5 plus 22 defensive markers. 138:65.5 is greater than 2:1, so Germany could break the pact. Another 4 garrison points for the USSR and breaking the pact would not have been possible. The USSR had units worth 6 garrison points available that were either disorganized or not close enough to the border. Why weren’t they organized and closer? Because offensive markers are never shown to the other side. The values of defensive markers are visible to both sides. Disorganized units do not count towards garrison levels.

Germany had to drag every unit with garrison factors to within 3 hexes of a hex controlled by the USSR. Italian units didn’t count, so they were primarily placed in occupied countries (i.e., France and Yugoslavia) to prevent partisans from arriving. But units belonging to minor countries aligned to Germany did count towards the garrison level, so they all journeyed to the critical border area. In the end, I had the entire German air force desert their posts protecting Axis factories and rebase east to the garrison zone. These extreme measures just barely got the job done.

While this was a tense time for the Axis, it was equally stressful for the USSR. Having all its forces so close to the border put them in danger of being overwhelmed by the German blitz. According to the rules, Germany gets two neutrality pact markers each turn and the USSR gets one. In theory, the total value of those markers should be 2:1 in favor of Germany. In this game, they were far from that. Either Germany should have had 44 points in markers or the USSR should have only had 18. From G’s point of view, if the German markers were worth 39 instead of 36, the USSR getting 5 more garrison points closer to the front wouldn’t have prevented Germany from breaking the pact. This was all a very hairy time for both sides.

As it turned out, Germany had sufficient garrison points to break the pact at any time during the Mar/Apr 1941 turn. But the weather wasn’t Fine in the Arctic weather zone. So I held off.