The Oder must hold! VtB: xhoel (Axis) vs Gunnulf (Soviet)

[xhoel]

The other important Theater is the Italian one. Here I only moved only 2 units I think but the CV hasnt been looking very well and even dropped below 90% at some point. It has now settled at 91%, which will surely changed as the Event "Advance into Northern Italy" triggered this week, which changes combat intensity from medium to high. I got unlucky with the naval garrison as it all of the sudden dropped to 80%. Im sending an air group there next week to amend the problem.





Italian Manpower and air losses:



Defensive values over the weeks:





The other two TBs are above requirements in all sectors and are doing well since combat intensity is set to low and very low.

Balkans:





Norway:





Italy and Balkans:

[xhoel]

Ground Losses

Due to the very heavy fighting this week, losses have been very high: 61.000 irrecoverable losses in men plus a whooping 2.800 guns and 1.160 AFVs lost. The Soviets took almost 80.000 KIA or MIA. The AFV losses taken this week are only surpassed by those taken on week one.





10 rebuild divisions will be deployed from the reserve next week to make up for the heavy losses and the lack of reserves in key sectors such as Prague and Vienna:



Air Losses

Losses in the air are also heavy for both sides. We are exchanging 3:1 losses but the majority of Soviet planes shot down is due to flak and not due to air combat. The Hungarian Air Force has taken quite heavy losses.



We hope that losses will be a lot lower next week because rain will bring mud again.

[Hardradi]

First of all, from your AAR, you come across like you have a Morale level of 9. [:)]

Thanks for the TB information, events, the map view of France and Italy. Its pretty cool to see it working through into this late war Campaign game.

Great counterattack. I am interested to see how Gunnulf responds.

[xhoel]

ORIGINAL: Hardradi

First of all, from your AAR, you come across like you have a Morale level of 9. [:)]

Thank you, guess I am doing well in game too:

ORIGINAL: Hardradi

Thanks for the TB information, events, the map view of France and Italy. Its pretty cool to see it working through into this late war Campaign game.

Great counterattack. I am interested to see how Gunnulf responds.

Glad it came in handy. You will see the Soviet response in the coming days. I just finished T12 so the AAR will probably get a double turn update (11 and 12). Spicy things happening. Stay tuned!

[xhoel]

ORIGINAL: Rosencrantus

I agree, when two experienced players get a game together the scenarios that result are normally quite historically plausible. Especially the chaos that ensues when both sides launch counter attacks on counter attacks [:D].

True, it is one of the things that I really like about the game. Its very interesting to see historical situations replicated. Counterattacks are the best!

[xhoel]

T11, 24th of March 1945

AGN

The Soviets continue their attacks against AGN. One was held back with very heavy losses while a second one in the north forced our defenders to give ground but not before drawing a lot of blood from the enemy. 16th Army pulls back 20 miles, 18th Army ordered to hold their ground.

Two IDs and another HQ evacuated from Kurland this week.





AGN after:



AGV

The security cordon left in Pomerania managed to tie down 3 Rifle Corps but has been annihilated in the process. The Soviets have also liquidated the pocket north of Poznan, yielding them around 18.000 POWs. At the same time they have expanded their bridgehead with strong attacks. Now the forward elements are only facing open ground and threaten to roll the flank of the 4th Army. Orders have been given for the Army to pull back and reform their line to the south. Northern Pomerania has been given up without a fight. 3rd Panzer Army remains in their positions.

Fortified Zones are being constructed on the Oder to allow fort levels to go above 1.

AGV before:



AGV after:

[xhoel]

AGC

In the sector in front of Berlin two Soviet attacks have been beaten back with heavy losses for the second week in row. It is however unmistakable that the Soviets have committed their assault formations in the sector. Very high CVs (despite the heavy mud) and a frightening number of Guards formations in the area. 11th SS Panzer Army has performed very well so far and the OKH has full confidence that they will continue to impress.



Holds marked in yellow.

11th SS Panzer Army holds:





Center sector after:



AGA

The heaviest fighting of the week was recorded around Prague again. Here the enemy has blasted through 40 miles of German forces and has managed to relieve the 8th Gds Mechanized Corps outside of Prague. Only a single hold marked in the sector by the veteran 19th Panzer Division. The relieve force (2nd Mechanized Corps) however has been hit hard by a counterattack from Sauckens Großdeutschland Panzer Corps and has lost all of its AFVs. Koeniggraetz has fallen and the production of Pz38(t) chassis is now 35% lower.

Reserves have been committed to the sector but they will probably not be enough to contain a strong Soviet push. Pardubitz abandoned. Multiple depleted divisions in the sector.

Prague sector start of the week:



Hold by the veteran 19th Panzer Division:



The division has performed outstandingly so far but their employment as a fire brigade has come at a heavy cost, only 13% ready TOE:



The GD Panzergrenadier Division had just arrived from Berlin and was fresh. It has been absolutely decimated in the fighting:





Koeniggratz battle:



2nd Mechanized Corps mauled:



Prague sector after:

[xhoel]

AGS

The Soviets have now reached the Danube after clearing the regiments left behind to slow them down and are in the outskirts of Vienna and Bratislava. A good number of these regiments have been shattered. The other ones that have been depleted will be disbanded. A strong Soviet attack has hit the Muenchenberg Panzer Division hard.

Recon indicates a Soviet build up to the rear, surely in preparation for storming the two important cities. A strong counterattack by the 1st Panzer Army smashes the 7th Guards Mechanized Corps which was caught unprepared in open terrain by the Totenkopf SS Panzer Division and the 92nd Panzergrenadier Brigade. Our forces continue to show their tenacity and grit. Keeping the Soviets off balance is extremely important and the armored formations are doing a great job so far.

Vienna sector before:



Strong Soviet attacks last week:





1st Panzer Army counterattacks:



Vienna sector after:



The Hungarian sector is quiet and we have begun a slow pullback behind the rivers. The open terrain is not favorable for the defense. Forward defenses have been established in the cities of Papa and Gyor. The Hungarian formations are motivated to defend their country from the Soviets at all costs.

Budapest sector after:

[xhoel]

Losses

Both ground and air losses have been relatively light this week. The biggest issue has been the bug affecting rebuild divisions which has been taking all manpower away from the field formations. Almost all of these units have been disbanded and more will follow next week.







The disbanding and reorganization of the LW continues. See the changes to ready aircraft and air groups between T2 (first Axis turn) and this week (T11):

T2:



T11:



The impressive A2A kills have not been easy to come by. The LW fighter force has been basically cut down in half by the heavy fighting.

Weather predicted to be rain next week, which means water levels will drop by 1 again but heavy mud will remain:

[xhoel]

T12, 31st of March 1945

The weather continues to be rain along most of the front so the water levels have dropped to 6. Weather predictions for next week indicate that it will rain again, which means water levels will drop to 5 and the heavy mud will turn to light mud, which means green light for a proper Soviet offensive. Kurland is predicted to have heavy rain which means there will be heavy mud, impeding a strong push in the sector.



AGN

Two attacks in the Kurland sector this week, one held back, the other one cut through the 207th zbV Security Division like butter, leaving them with only 14% of their TOE. In both battles you can see the abysmal performance of the “green” JG 6. As a result of the losses one of their groups as well as the severly understrength NSGr 7 have been disbanded. Luftflotte 1 now reduced to a mere 102 aircraft.

Due to the continuing evacuations, the 16th and 18th Army have been ordered to break contact and establish defensive positions around the ports. Another two Infantry Divisions evacuated this week.

I am honestly surprised that Gunnulf isnt trying to conduct naval interdiction from Koenigsberg and Danzig, which would cut Kurland off and there is nothing I could do to prevent it.

Kurland before:



Hold:



Retreat:



NSGr. 7 hit hard and had to be disbanded:



Kurland after:

[xhoel]

AGV

The Soviets are holding back in this sector, only launching two attacks, one of which caused heavy losses to elements of the elite 11th SS Panzergrenadier Division. Recon and intelligence reports confirm a massive Soviet build up in the rear. No doubt the enemy is massing their forces and waiting for the weather to clear up before striking. Soviet mobile formations have cleared most of Pomerania. The FZ on the Oder have not filled up due to manpower problems and the same issue is present with the Infantry divisions that are on refit on the depots here. See section on manpower below.

Due to the Soviet advance in the north and the open terrain there, both the 4th and 3rd Panzer Army have received orders to pull back so as to avoid encirclement. We have had to give up good defensive positions on the Warthe, but this is unavoidable. 2nd Army tasked with defending and building up fortifications on the Oder.

AGV sector start of the week:



11th SS Panzergrenadier Division mauled hard:



AGV sector after German moves:




AGC

The Soviets have finally succeeded in pushing back the two strongpoints of the 11th SS Panzer Army, causing heavy losses to our retreating forces. The two regiments of the 11th Panzer Division lost 115 AFVs. The same fate has befallen the formations of the 9th Army further to the south, with the Kurmark Panzergrenadier Division losing all of its AFVs (39 out of 40) and the exceptionally strong 5th Panzer Division losing half of their AFVs (77 out of 144).

Because of a lack of reserves here and the strength of the enemy forces, we have pulled back to the secondary line of defenses and 3 fresh infantry divisions have been committed to the sector, including the 2nd Russian Infantry Division (650th ID) as well as two mobile divisions arriving from Berlin (24th Panzer and 23rd SS Panzergrenadier Divisions). These forces will not be enough to hold back the Soviets but hopefully they can slow them down.

AGC sector start of the week:



11th SS Panzer Army retreats:





9th Army retreats:





AGC sector after:

[xhoel]

AGA

Heaviest fighting continues to be in the Prague sector. Here the Soviets have pushed back multiple divisions and their vanguard units (7th Gds Cavalry Corps) have reached the outskirts of Prague. The 8th Gds Mechanized Corps has been pulled back. Even good divisions with full TOE, defending in good terrain are not safe from the Soviet onslaught as the battles in the Czech hills show.

Two Mechanized Corps have crossed the lower Elbe to the south of the city. The main Soviet force seems to be pivoting north-west towards Dresden where the terrain is relatively open and can facilitate an armored push to envelop Berlin. Nevertheless, Prague needs to be secured at all costs so the armored formations have been ordered to launch counterattacks. The attack against the 7th Gds Cavalry Corps went well but a secondary attack to eliminate the Soviet bridgehead over the Elbe failed with heavy losses. At least the Soviets took heavy losses as well and will have lower mobility next week.

Further reserves have been committed on the Elbe river to reinforce the flanks of Prague and three armored divisions (3rd, Munchenberg and Wiking SS) divisions have been transferred to the sector from Army Group South. Some formations, like the elite 19th Panzer Division have been pulled back for R&R. 4th Panzer Army has also given ground in lower Austria as we are expecting a big Soviet push here.

Prague sector start of the week:



Soviet attacks:







Very strange to see this division do so bad in combat. They were fresh, 85% TOE and good morale (60), in strong terrain. See below for their status on T11.



7th Guards Cavalry Corps mauled:



Counterattack held back with heavy losses:



Prague sector after German moves:

[xhoel]

AGS

More German divisions have been thrown across the Danube this week and now only a single understrength regiment remains north of the river. The Soviets have also taken both Papa and Gyor by direct assault, mauling the Hungarian formations badly. A general retreat has been ordered all along the front here and Vienna and Bratislava have been reinforced. 2nd Panzer Army ordered to maintain a defensive line around the last major oil fields at Lovaszi. Many formations in the area have been moved to depots and set to refit so that they can recover some of their strength.

What is left of Luftflotte 4 has been ordered to provide Ground Support to the garrisons of Vienna and Bratislava.

Vienna and Budapest sectors before:





Soviet attacks:





Battle of Gyor:



Sectors after Axis moves:





All along the front we are being forced to give ground as the Soviet infantry has caught up and there are multiple build ups. The weather clearing does not favor a forward defense.

Overview:

[xhoel]

Losses, Replacements and Industry

The losses in men this week have been relatively ok, “only” 30.000 irrecoverable losses. The most worrying losses are material ones in the form of guns (almost 1.2k) and AFVs (almost 700). The Soviets have crossed the half a million KIA mark.

Replacements to the field army are still low, mostly due to the shell divisions that are pulling most manpower. These formations have been disbanded and a lot of manpower has been freed up this way (almost 125k men). This is the reason why more formations than usually are on refit. OKH hopes to get them up to strength so we can continue to delay the Soviet advance.
The loss of territory is starting to show its effects.

Manpower recruitment has fallen from almost 20k to 16.5k, plus around 5k from wounded men recovering. Nevertheless, the pool of manpower as well as the fact that only 2 shell divisions are arriving to the reserve next week, means that there is a good chance that the Ostfront will receive a good manpower boost. Seeing T13, that was wrong, see post here:

https://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=5132514

OOB has fallen to 2.1 million ready men, 30.8k guns and 3k ready AFVs.





Pool:



Disbands:



Losses in the air have been high, 227 pilots lost. More air groups have been disbanded and the trained pilots concentrated in the main air groups. Since next week is expected to be rain (fair weather for flying) and a major offensive is expected, the LW has received orders to provide GS to the following Armies:

Luftflotte 5: 3rd Panzer Army
Luftflotte 6: 11th SS Panzer Army
Luftflotte 4: 6th Army (defending Vienna and Bratislava).

The LW continued to downsize every week however, the OOB shows 2.3k planes ready vs 11.6k of the VVS.



The Soviet advance has also had repercussions for the industry. The fuel pool is falling fast and has reached a new low of 186k tons.



OOB:

[DeletedUser1769703214]

I would cry a river of tears if the Western Allies capture Berlin in this game.

[xhoel]

ORIGINAL: HardLuckYetAgain

I would cry a river of tears if the Western Allies capture Berlin in this game.

That aint happening for two reasons:

1) The scenario doesnt allow the WE to capture Berlin. Instead the Soviets are given more time to capture the city, to account for the fact that a logical German player wont make the same mistakes that Hitler made. This is a good idea in my opinion.

2) Due to the replacement issue as well as the bug problems, the on map Army is really reaching breaking point. Of the forces I had on refit on T12, only a single German regiment and 2 Hungarian units got any replacements. Nothing else for the fighting forces.

I expect a collapse in the next two-three weeks and there is little I can do about it. Frustrating.

[Hardradi]

I checked the scenario opening position via the Editor and the Berlin flak towers look empty. They played a big part in the defence of the city. Are yours equipped?

[tm1]

Firstly I have to say I would not even play this scenario against the AI !.

So well done to you Sir and to your opponent for picking it.


Just a query in early March the Germans launched there last offensive in Hungary, Operation Spring Awakening, did you get any kind of boost in manpower or equipment at all.

I know about the offensive and how it collapsed do to a lack of fuel, but what about reinforcements to bolster your Armee's in that time period?.

regards

[xhoel]

ORIGINAL: Hardradi

I checked the scenario opening position via the Editor and the Berlin flak towers look empty. They played a big part in the defence of the city. Are yours equipped?

Yep, all the flak towers are fully equipped. I doesnt matter much for ground combat since AFAIK AA attached to cities wont join a battle.



@tm1: I think with a few changes the scenario would be made more playable and attractive to the wide player base. It is a tough starting position but it is fun to explore the collapse of the Wehrmacht in 1945.

To answer your question: No additional manpower or equipment is provided to you. You only have what the production system builds and thats it. As I have said multiple times in the AAR and also in my separate post on the TB replacement issue:

With the current system you get very little of what is needed to hold back the Soviets and because the TBs will "steal" most of the manpower, you are only left with scraps, an average of 25k manpower a week a good majority of which is not going directly to combat units.

[IslandInland]

Thanks for the AAR. I am enjoying it.

This is one of my favourite scenarios and the first one I ever played.