Discussion Thought: PLAN CVBG in the Indian Ocean.

[HalfLifeExpert]

In my struggle to fall asleep last night, I thought of a somewhat plausible situation that I'd like to discuss. (I'll also put this in the FB group)

At some point in the relatively near future, it's probably likely that, as a prestige/show-the-flag move, the PLAN may send a CVBG to the Western Indian Ocean or even the Mediterranean.

That got me thinking:

What if the major China war were to break out while a Chinese Carrier Group was far from home, like off of East Africa?

While the Carrier group is likely kind of screwed, what would think it's course of action would be? What would you do as the CVBG Commander or Chinese Naval Leadership?


Would you try to make it home? What Route?

Would You try to raid some enemy shipping or bases; like Diego Garcia?


Discuss!!

[LettuceTurnipTheBeet]

Considering even OSINT amateurs can sometimes get a fix on carriers through commercial satellites, US probably has all potential enemy ships pinned down to 500 miles or less at all times. The carrier can't go into into port to refuel or restock, even a friendly one like Djibouti lest it be discovered, and it's a long way home. If the weather is favorable and it chooses to try return home (unlikely) it will probably take a southern route down the east coast of Africa up and around Australia. But that is a 10,000+ nmi trip and I'm inclined to believe they don't have enough support ships to make the journey. The Indonesian archipelago is off limits due to Australian Jindalee radars.

Honestly I'd realize the carrier was done for and race to take out Diego Garcia with cruise missiles before Bones full of LRASMs send me to Davy Jones' locker. Even then, the battle group would probably be found and sunk later but at least it could inflict some damage on the enemy.

[SunlitZelkova]

ORIGINAL: HalfLifeExpert
At some point in the relatively near future, it's probably likely that, as a prestige/show-the-flag move, the PLAN may send a CVBG to the Western Indian Ocean or even the Mediterranean.

I think this is less likely than before. IIRC the PLAN has only conducted port visits within the Pacific since relations started to take a turn for the worse in 2016. Of course the anti-piracy ops still go on, but that is just a destroyer, a frigate and a replenishment ship- not a strategic asset like an aircraft carrier.

The PLA is on a metaphorical high alert over Taiwan right now. I don't think they would send a carrier out that far when tensions are so blatantly high.

That said, in the farther future when the PLAN has nuclear powered aircraft carriers (perhaps in numbers I can count with more than one hand) then the chances are much higher. So looking at that scenario-

What if the major China war were to break out while a Chinese Carrier Group was far from home, like off of East Africa?

While the Carrier group is likely kind of screwed, what would think it's course of action would be? What would you do as the CVBG Commander or Chinese Naval Leadership?


Would you try to make it home? What Route?

Would You try to raid some enemy shipping or bases; like Diego Garcia?

It would probably be best to make a fighting retreat home. Hitting Diego Garcia would be a good course of action. After that, even if the CVBG is doomed, it would be best to try to take down as many enemy ships (particularly carriers) along with them.

That is my personal opinion. In real life, the Chinese political and military leadership probably expects there to be a period of crisis preceding an unexpected war and will stall diplomatically to move assets into position, instead of just leaving them out there.

[maverick3320]

Major PLA assets would be unlikely to be caught out of position since it's much more likely that China starts any conflict in that region of the world, and therefore would pick the time and method to begin any offensive moves.

[Francois5]

With all the ports "bought" by China, I guess we can expect something similar to HMS Phaeton in Nagasaki in 1808, threat and rip off whatever you can.
But it won't go far away.