2/12 Weather Conditions not optimal for Russian action

[BeirutDude]

IMHO, weather and overnight illumination conditions are sub-optimal for Russian action in the Ukraine for the next 7 days. Currently the high temperatures are in the low 30s F / near 2-4C with overnight lows in the 15-20F / -10 to -6C range, but not long enough of a duration to hard freeze the ground for a 40-50 ton MBT. By Tuesday we're looking at high temps in the 40-45F /4 to 8C range and overnight lows 30-35F/-1 to 3 C. This definitely will allow the fields to become mud quagmires (which from the videos I'm seeing they are now). If I were a Russian BTG commander I'd be scared S***less my columns would be completely road-bound and if the defenders even can use the ATGMs they had in inventory already to effect my columns would have trouble punching through and I'd be severely limited in my freedom of action. Now add Javelins to the mix, if they integrated them to front line forces and can use them effectively, could be a major mess for them.

Full Moon is Feb 16th in just 4 days and Sunday Night's illumination is 80%. That means for infantry/Special Ops infiltration, as well as, aircraft the illumination will be greater taking away (or limiting) that advantage from a foe with lesser night vision equipment. Don't know how important that is today, but was huge in my dinosaur days of the 1980s. At bare minimum waiting until the New Moon on March 2nd give the Russian SOF forces, with the better night vision equipment/night training more advantages. However waiting until early March has the risk of even warmer weather and more rain.

Thoughts? What am I missing here?

[Gunner98]

Field Marshal Winter has relinquished the battlefield to General Mud.

If I recall my history, the campaign season on the Russian Steppes was May to Oct with a brief (Brief) interlude in January where the ground is frozen enough for maneuver.

All the speculation and punditry in the world cannot change the weather on the Russian Front.

[BeirutDude]

Field Marshal Winter has relinquished the battlefield to General Mud.

If I recall my history, the campaign season on the Russian Steppes was May to Oct with a brief (Brief) interlude in January where the ground is frozen enough for maneuver.

All the speculation and punditry in the world cannot change the weather on the Russian Front.

Bart, I was hoping you, and SeaQueen would actually chime in on this. Glad to see you thinking along the same lines. Doesn't mean Putin won't act, as he seems to be driven by other issues other than causalities. If he does act now, not a good situation for his troops. Not that they'll loose, they just overwhelm the Ukrainians especially if they only go to the Dnepr, but at what cost in lives???? [&:]

[Gunner98]

I'll try to respond without getting the tread shut down..

There is no need for Russia to act, they have won already:

-Gas prices for Europe are high - good for their economy in general and individuals in particular
-NATO looks weak and fragmented
-NATO leaders look weak and powerless
-Domestic population fixated and fearful, will be relieved when it doesn't turn into a war
-Ukrainians (and others in Eastern Europe) looking over their shoulders wondering

I'd really like to know what 100,000 troops - even if there was that many - could hope to do in the best of weather. How many times have we counted the same trains and convoys? The Germans ran out of troops in this area with Army Group South with 8-10 times that number.

Anyway - great grist for scenarios, but I think we'll be talking about it long after nothing happens.

Sun Tzu: “Victorious warriors win first and then go to war, while defeated warriors go to war first and then seek to win.”

B

[BeirutDude]

Sun Tzu: “Victorious warriors win first and then go to war, while defeated warriors go to war first and then seek to win.”

Great insights! Love the finishing Sun Tzu quote. Putin is definitely a master of brinksmanship.

[Gunner98]

There are a few that apply:

“The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting.”

And one from the old German guy that could apply as well:

"The first, the supreme, the most far-reaching act of judgment that the statesman and commander have to make is to establish the kind of war on which they are embarking."


Modern war does not have to involve bullets but it does have casualties. Cyber, information, money are all weapons these days.

[Filitch]

Weather and political conditions is good only for Ukrainian aggression against LPR and DPR in violation of Minsk agreements. Political - because there is no willing of Russian government to full-scale conflict, entering to territory of Donetsk republics and moreover to Ukrainian territory. Weather - because in case of full-scale Russian actions in defend of LPR and DPR against Ukraine, armored and mechanized troops will have limited maneuverability, low clouds limits usage of guided weapon like laser-guided bombs. So only Ukrainian aggression have sense. There are no any political, economy or military reason for Russia to seize Ukraine like US seize Iraq 1991, 2003.
Really guys, be a serious. All this "last preparation, 70% ready, 100500 millions Russian troops" - is a chicken feed.

[BeirutDude]

2/13, latest forecast for Kharkiv, Ukraine.

[BDukes]

Sunny with a good chance of artillery[&:]

The stuff is heavy to all American Ukes.

Mike

[BeirutDude]

True story, we used to have remarks on weather observations (they were called Airways Observations). They would be things like...

Thunderstorm overhead
Visibility lower south
Cloud to ground lightning east of airfield

One time in Beirut when were under rocket attack I sent an Ob to the ships offshore with a remark that read...

"Artillery overhead, Observer underground"

Can't make this stuff up!!!! It was a fleet joke for years afterward and I never lived it down while I was on active duty.

[marcusm]

Russia and offensive war usually ends up in tears, for Russia. That would be a good reason not to .

[BeirutDude]

I'm going to back track and just keep this to the weather in theater.

[maverick3320]

ORIGINAL: Gunner98

I'll try to respond without getting the tread shut down..

There is no need for Russia to act, they have won already:

-Gas prices for Europe are high - good for their economy in general and individuals in particular
-NATO looks weak and fragmented
-NATO leaders look weak and powerless
-Domestic population fixated and fearful, will be relieved when it doesn't turn into a war
-Ukrainians (and others in Eastern Europe) looking over their shoulders wondering

I'd really like to know what 100,000 troops - even if there was that many - could hope to do in the best of weather. How many times have we counted the same trains and convoys? The Germans ran out of troops in this area with Army Group South with 8-10 times that number.

Anyway - great grist for scenarios, but I think we'll be talking about it long after nothing happens.

Sun Tzu: “Victorious warriors win first and then go to war, while defeated warriors go to war first and then seek to win.”

B

Interesting insight. However: if Putin's stated goal is to prevent Ukraine from moving closer to the West - which I actually believe - how does this buildup help him? If anything, he's pushed Ukrainians and other Eastern European nations (to say nothing of Scandinavians as well) even further from Russia's orbit.

[BDukes]

ORIGINAL: BeirutDude

True story, we used to have remarks on weather observations (they were called Airways Observations). They would be things like...

Thunderstorm overhead
Visibility lower south
Cloud to ground lightning east of airfield

One time in Beirut when were under rocket attack I sent an Ob to the ships offshore with a remark that read...

"Artillery overhead, Observer underground"

Can't make this stuff up!!!! It was a fleet joke for years afterward and I never lived it down while I was on active duty.

Ha! I bet.

More a fan of history than politics but must of cost millions to mobilize and the guy has to show a return. Weather is more operational at this point. Guessing we'll see something bad soon.

Wargamer in me is interested but cautiously. Online OSINT and punditry is so hard to proof these days. Academics generally review their BS and these communities should probably start moving in that direction. Even the experts are a little sketchy these days after getting Iraq and Afghanistan so wrong. Proof is in the pudding kind of thing.

CMO is good at looking at the tech on tech stuff. That is where I generally keep it. It can be a good escape as well.

Keep up the great work BD!

Mike

[BDukes]

Just gave your Kiev scenario a use. I wanted to see if Ukr aircraft are pinned with S-400 around. They definitely are if flying at higher altitudes. Ukrainian Fencers (I added) were able to get about 40nm from the SA-20's before being engaged.

Mike

[BDukes]

Just tried the same with rainy weather and its roughly the same.

Mike

[LargeDiameterBomb]

I don't think mud will be decisive factor or even very significant factor at all in this very likely coming war. Of course it will create some problems, but not meaningful problems.

Russian MBTs are light and have wide tracks and low ground pressure. I've seen several videos of tanks driving in very muddy training ranges farther north where the ground is absolutely not frozen (And on training ranges the repeated travel of the tracks over the ground usually grind the earth/sand into a more fine powder excellent for creating real mud composed of ultra small particles) without any significant problems at all. Nothing close to getting stuck even for a second.

I fail to see why tanks moving in broad formations over open terrain or on small paved roads between several acre sized fields will suffer any larger problems from this.

Basically every road is paved in Ukraine these days.

This is not the 1940s where Panzerkampwagen III with narrow tracks and even worse, trucks and horses that were supposed to draw two-wheeled field guns through mud got stuck on every smallish road beucause the passage of just two hundred vehicle's before had turned it into at least knee-deep mud, because the road surface was just flattened dirt.
Nowadays the same road would be paved and even the 1940s Wehrmacht would have had little problem with mud on the eastern front these days.


Probably we will soon see who is right.


PS Further I suspect at least a significant proportion of the absolute worst pictures from the eastern front one has seen and which is etched into the brain of every military history guy with Wehrmacht vehicles stuck in impossible conditions were taken during the spring melt (But that is just a guess and is not material to my argument - it's more of an explanation why there is this incessant focus on the supposedly impossible problems the mud will create for the invading Russian forces).

[BeirutDude]

I don't think mud will be decisive factor or even very significant factor at all in this very likely coming war. Of course it will create some problems, but not meaningful problems.

Russian MBTs are light and have wide tracks and low ground pressure. I've seen several videos of tanks driving in very muddy training ranges farther north where the ground is absolutely not frozen (And on training ranges the repeated travel of the tracks over the ground usually grind the earth/sand into a more fine powder excellent for creating real mud composed of ultra small particles) without any significant problems at all. Nothing close to getting stuck even for a second.

I fail to see why tanks moving in broad formations over open terrain or on small paved roads between several acre sized fields will suffer any larger problems from this.

Basically every road is paved in Ukraine these days.

This is not the 1940s where Panzerkampwagen III with narrow tracks and even worse, trucks and horses that were supposed to draw two-wheeled field guns through mud got stuck on every smallish road beucause the passage of just two hundred vehicle's before had turned it into at least knee-deep mud, because the road surface was just flattened dirt.
Nowadays the same road would be paved and even the 1940s Wehrmacht would have had little problem with mud on the eastern front these days.


Probably we will soon see who is right.


PS Further I suspect at least a significant proportion of the absolute worst pictures from the eastern front one has seen and which is etched into the brain of every military history guy with Wehrmacht vehicles stuck in impossible conditions were taken during the spring melt (But that is just a guess and is not material to my argument - it's more of an explanation why there is this incessant focus on the supposedly impossible problems the mud will create for the invading Russian forces).

Thanks for the insights. Interesting point on Russian MBTs and the wide tracks, lighter weight. Certainly they've had 80 some odd years to develop MBTs for that environment. As you said, we'll see. My info is pretty dated as a Cold War Warrior. [:D]

[BeirutDude]

I did find this video from 2017. I have no idea if these are similar conditions to what's happening with the mud near Ukraine right now, but what I see here are two dead tank crews if this were a combat situation...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4VsmnxM8288

[Shkval25]

Now add Javelins to the mix, if they integrated them to front line forces and can use them effectively, could be a major mess for them.

I wouldn't be surprised if the Javelins are all in a single warehouse somewhere to please the End-User Monitoring program.