Eastern Front '41-'45 Fabio (Axis) vs Jason (Soviet)

[governato]

It's early February and the Wehrmacht is rapidly recovering from Winter, even if 1st Panzer Army is being rebuilt almost from
scratch. Having lost its HQ (and its precious support squads), will limit its supply until at least Summer.

After conquering Rostov, I realized the Caucasus had been left largely undefended, while the Red Army probably focused on protecting Moscow, were I am clearing an enemy salient around Rhzev. I am moving infantry South of the Don and 1st Panzer Army is refitting around Rostov. It will take at least a month. No recon on my exposed East flank, but maybe it's for the best...

Objectives: destroy the oil fields in Maykop and Grozny. This will trigger some significant supply losses for the Red Army.


43.k German squads (Pioneers +Infantry)

1660 medium tanks, but 90% of them short barrel PzKpfw III and IV.

I see moderate gains around Leningrad with AGN, that has been stripped of its tanks. I do not plan major offensives there for now. Sevastopol is about to fall. The Luftwaffe has local Air Superiority and air losses ratio is about 2:1 in our favor. Overall I feel that a cautious Fall 1941 around Moscow, following the Summer advances has preserved my offensive capabilities even after the defeat at Stalingrad.


From the Soviet Archives:

Red Army: 92k Infantry+sappers
2400 T34+KV-1 tanks

[governato]

Early March. Most Panzers are refitting around Rostov and Moscow. Infantry advances South slowly. 44th Mountain Army is pushed aside and the door to Grozny seems open.

46k German Infantry + Pioneers.

1800 Medium tanks, some new long barrel PzIII are coming on line.

Soviet archives show a build up of forces West of Stalingrad, probably waiting to strike at my exposed flank.

[governato]

T42 April 5th 1942
The Spring thaw just started and the front is quiet (with shock penalties for both sides). Grozny fell last turn with a combined paradrop of the Brandenburg Regiment and a push of my infantry. (The Axis has regiment level airdrop capabilities for the first years of the war)


Pressure on my flank is mounting with several armies pouring in. I will need to transfer some Panzer units to AGS/AGB
50k Pioneer and Infantry squads.
2100 Tanks, with 200 PzKIV long barrel. I finally have tanks that can take the T-34 head on.

[governato]

Soviet Archives (courtesy of Jason, my opponent)

the equivalent of eight Soviet armies are building in the Caucasus with an engineer army digging along the Don (but no tank Corps as they were almost all destroyed in 1941). It's clear that the enemy is planning an attack on my flank, but this image also shows that he can't see my build up of forces along the railway to Baku.

The Red Army has 3500 medium tanks! (T-34 and KV-1)
96k Infantry and Sapper Squads (but a lot of these are in the strategic reserve and in the Sapper armies)

Designer notes: EF 41-45 has very low recon values on purpose. Strategic surprises are quite possible and should be expected and planned! Overall I feel the Wehrmacht bounced back a bit too quickly, even after the 1941 successes. [edit: Stahel in "Retreat from Moscow" argues that German logistics bounced back fast in real life too. They lost way more tanks than in this game tho]. Version 7 (in the works, but waiting for more version 6 reports before making definitive changes)) will leave the Axis strength largely intact but will decrease the amount of logistics replacements available to the Axis (rail repair, bridge building and trucks) IF it makes large gains East as they would have been needed by rear units not represented in the scenario.

[governato]

A large scale view of Army Group North and Army Group Center at the end of mud season. While AGN has no tank formation and I plan no major operations there for now, AGC has three Panzer Armies ready to strike. I wait for the number of tanks to increase anddI only launch a diversion South of Moscow, to convince my opponent that I am going for Moscow first.

Patience Luke... patience.

However, while I wait for the mud to dry, I have seen opportunity in the Caucasus, S of the Don, where the Red Army appears overextended with only one rail line bringing supply to its forces West of Stalingrad and the river is weakly defended. My limited recon has found no tank formations in reserve so I suspect the Red Army infantry formations would be slow to respond to a threat to their flanks. I hope my opponent thinks I am headed for Baku with some tanks (while most are around Moscow) and that my own East flank in the Caucasus will be undefended.

Unknown to him (I hope!) I have moved the First Panzer Army just N of the Don and detached two Panzer Korps and a Romanian mobile group South, around Grozny.

Note: one of the fun things for an operational level scenario like this is to keep track of the enemy, when I play the Red Army (and my job is basically to worry..) I do keep a list of the Panzer Korps and if too many are missing...well I do worry.

[governato]

This is the situation South of the Don. 1st Panzer Army is ready to strike South and has support from AGS HQ and the Luftwaffe, with more planes to come next week. North of Grozny two Panzer Korps and various other units are ready to move East and then wheel North. Both formations have supply for two three turns max (low supply rates for 1st Panzer Army, still low on HQ support squads and also unit proficiency) due to stretched supply lines across the Don..or the whole Caucasus... so the hope is that they will find weak opposition and link somewhere SE of the rail line from Stalingrad before they get too weak..and slow to retreat.


IF that works I will encircle 6-8 Soviet Armies. IF not and I slam right into the assembly area for a Red Army push West..well the Axis player has to stay optimistic if he hopes to win.

Note 1: One can also see the relatively weak Romanian and Italian Infantry South of Rostov (grey on grey and white on green). Their combat factors are about half those of similar German units. As mentioned before this is due to the lower supply rate of their formation (poor logistics) and lack of heavy artillery and support tanks. In EF41-45 the proficiency of Axis satellites (a proxy for combat experience in this scenario) is not much lower than German Infantry, but the lack of heavy equipment and trucks makes them brittle and slower to recover. Hopefully they will hold the line for another week or two while
the Panzers attempt their endrun through the steppe.

Note2: these turns happened some time ago and I recall how fun planning this operation was!

[governato]

A broad view of the entire Russian Front by May 3rd.

The Caucasus-Don operation involves 500 fighters and 300 bombers. The North pincer includes 420 medium tanks and the newly formed Großdeutschland (it was a regiment sized unit in 1941). The Southern pincer has only 270 medium tanks, but they will have to do. Hubris on a shoe string as usual. Note how mud is still present but has mostly dried up in the Caucasus. Good job TOAW engine!

The feint in the Moscow region only involves a few mobile units..for now.

Designer Notes: The Axis uses a mix of Panzer Korps units and individual Panzer and PanzerGrenadier divisions, this is to better describe the flexibility of the Wehrmacht and how some divisions were upgraded, assigned to different areas or withdrawn over the course of the war. Plus players may like to know where the most famous units (like Großdeutschland) are ...
The total count of divisions ( and the attached AA, pioneer and heavy tank battalions coming from each Army) stays pretty accurate through the course of the campaign. A somewhat similar approach is used for the Soviet units, with more extensive use of flexible withdrawals. More extended notes on this in the scenario page.

Mud has been somewhat reduced in version 6, calibrating weather events to fit historical offensives in June 1941 and May 1942 that had to wait 'for mud to dry up'.

[fulcrum28]

Thanks a lot for this beautiful AAR.

I think you are using the V6 version, right?

I was playing before v5, and the V6 also has an AD=10 (Attrition divider of 10).
https://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=3045873
the EF 41-45 is one week turn, so why did you finally choose AD=10? The above post recommends AD=2 for one week turn.

I started discussing on AD because of a different scenario,
https://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=5150141
so the EF AD value also called my attention. But I think you already considered it carefully and if you think AD=10 is good, it should be fine, just let me know the reasons if possible. Thanks!

[fulcrum28]

which software did you use to draw the planned arrows on the map? Thank you in advance.

[governato]

ORIGINAL: fulcrum28

which software did you use to draw the planned arrows on the map? Thank you in advance.

Photoshop. Line Tool to create the line+arrowhead. Then 'transform' and 'warp' to shape as needed.

GIMP or Illustrator 'd work equally well.

[fulcrum28]

thanks for your reply, but what about to my first question regarding the AD on the post above?

[governato]

Btw this AAR is based on EF V5. The game has concluded and I am now writing the AAR .


Now to your question on the Attrition divider, the answer is relevant to all version of EF41-45. I realized I had not addressed that choice in my already too long scenario notes so thanks for asking!


The Attrition Divider was set to AD=10 pretty early in the scenario development to match infantry losses in a number of test cases and then the first year of the campaign. AD=10 reduces losses compared to AD=1 (although by less than a factor of 10). Other scenario at similar scales may work better with slightly different values.

Most importantly in most PBEM/PO testing it seems to work well over the course of the entire campaign, with both sides eventually having understrength infantry units and putting more emphasis on firepower in 1943 and later years.


Note that the 'combat density penalty' parameter was also lowered to 65 as the hex size is 25km (the closest choice allowed by the engine), but in real life each hex represents 32km. That choice also reduces *combat losses* a bit. I decided that the effect of density on losses was an area effect (not linear with frontage) as arty does most of the killing. Again, it works .


You had me check and in this game from June 41 to June 42 Soviet to Axis (Germans+others) infantry losses ratio is about 4.5:1 and medium tank losses 3.5:1 In the historical ball park for that timeframe. Previous versions had similar results.


I must add (you asked a good question, now you get a looong answer!) that TOAW has many interdependent parameters that can be used to simulate different aspects of warfare once considered together.
The scenario adds true attrition losses via pestilence effects to simulate low level combat (snipers, patrols, breakdowns, whatever happens in a 'quiet' sector of the front) 2) AFVs breakdowns via 'sink units' and using a specific eqp file tank losses are slightly boosted by high(ish) AT values for infantry and pioneers and then the introduction of AT squads in later years.

Overall the scenario losses may be similar to AD < 10 BUT they are driven by other factors than just combat, for example moving units causes permanent losses, and units will lose infantry even if not involved in 'TOAW combat'. This approach has several good advantages (discussed in the scenario thread) and it's transparent to the players.



Let me know if you get to play EF41-45!

[fulcrum28]

thanks a lot for your kind explanation and for the details!

[fulcrum28]

Hello, After playing the v5 version, now I started the V6. But I noticed that some icons for cities are missing. They were present in V5.

missing_cities_icons.png (670.83 KiB) Viewed 1639 times

[governato]

Hello, After playing the v5 version, now I started the V6. But I noticed that some icons for cities are missing. They were present in V5.
missing_cities_icons.png

I reduced the number of urban centers in V6, I left the names as a reference, so it is by design. I may put Mariupol back as it was an industrial center back then as well and maybe a few others.
How is your game going?

[fulcrum28]

Thanks for your reply. I understand. It is still Turn 1, so I cant say too much, but I will try to post a report after a few turns!

[governato]

[restarting the AAR after a long break, I am having fun playing "WEGO Stalingrad"...

The Caucasus Offensive starts on turn 47 and its various stages are shown in the three panels.

The North and South pincers met on turn 48 after facing weak resistance. I risked a paradrop to help fill the gap in the middle. The Red Army had no strong reserves and the 8 armies strung along the Caucasus front were trapped. The image shows 5 armies due to FogOfWar, but there were a total of 7-8, HQs and a Supply unit.

Just in time! The mobile panzers have very poor resupply (no rail lines, the Don river to cross) so the giant Kessel had to be closed within 2-3 weeks of the start of operations. Notice the HQs positioned across the Don to facilitate
river crossings and the flow of supply


"EF 41-45" has rather sticky ZOCs, *especially for the Red Army infantry units in 41-42* requiring skilled withdrawals (using mobile forces or HQs as screen)...but the Red Army had no mobile forces in this sector.

The third panel shows the situation at turn 57 (July 42) , when the surrounded forces have been destroyed and a secure front along the Volga has been established with Romanian and Hungarian forces (I do not stack them together, as a house rule, the two Axis allies were not in friendly terms with each other) . The Panzer armies are being railed North.

This turn showed some of the necessary ingredients for a successful East Front campaign: careful, but necessarily daring planning for the Axis and ...patience for the Red Army. which in Summer 1942 has no real bite YET (no tank units, not much arty, not enough trucks, the Air force still weak...). I think this why I like playing such a long scenario..it's a different pace from the all out Barbarossa(s) and one needs to survive in order to fight another day.

The Red Army intention was to cut my long supply line from Rostov to Baku (which was eventually isolated, but never captured by the Axis). However its forces were spread over a too large area (not worth much once Grozny had been captured) and lacked fast units. Instead of just forcing me to defend such a large front by just stationing some strong units in Stalingrad (which is why Stalingrad was so crucial in the real campaign)..and wait for Winter, it chose to press forward and defend every hex. This eventually cost it almost 10+ armies and it never really fully recovered. The next panels will show the situation in AGC and AGN.

caucasus.png (880.9 KiB) Viewed 1516 times

[governato]

Turn 56 AGC sector.

The offensive towards Moscow started as a diversion in late May, it pinned down significant reserves and distracted the Red Army from my secret Caucasus operation (recon levels are low in EF 41-45 so unless one keeps an eye on rail movements *and tracks where the Panzer Korps are* it's easy to conceal large forces just a few hexes away from the front lines. The Moscow thrust picked up pace in June as I started transferring the Panzers back to this area.
It has been a grind so far, with large losses for both sides. The Red Army is (was in RL too) still a bit of a mess, while at this point it really pays off (if you can ) to organize units by front, recombine armies and take advantage of higher proficiency and collaboration between units of the same Front and/or background color (Red Army light red counters are mostly from 1941 and have old TOes, the dark background ones are much stronger as each army contains extra arty regiments, heavy tanks btls and AA units.)

T56AGC.jpg (343.16 KiB) Viewed 1513 times

With the whole AGS sector free I have moved a lot of infantry to AGN and Leningrad is about to fall. (Tanks are useless here, and I had left Leningrad alone for most of 41 and 42...).

T56AGN.png (1.85 MiB) Viewed 1513 times

[governato]

This is the final post for this AAR.

A lightly defended Moscow was taken on September 27th, a couple of turns after the fall of Leningrad.
A pincer movement was approaching the city from two sides and another large Kessel looked likely.

Timing was great as Fall rains and then Winter were approaching.

Jason, my graceful opponent resigned. It was a fun game and a good test of EF under TOAWIV.

It'd have been a slog but the Russian Bear was far from being completely defeated. Better units with a lot more artillery were coming on line and while behind schedule I think a stalemate in 43 was likely with the Red Army regaining the initiative
sometime in 44 a possibility. Maybe Jason will chime in at some point! My suggestion 'd have been to give up more ground and being a little more patient before going on the offensive. Umm the same could have been said of the real Stavka..glad the game can capture the same frustrations .


Version 6 came out after this game and is now available. I may post a quick report of a test game..the match is going in a different direction, showing that both sides can have a chance if well played.

Version 7 is in the works, maybe Summer 2022? One of the things I will add is a better treatment of logistics. TOAW has infinite speed/infinite capability railways. Coupled with no truck breakdowns it can cause a supply runaway effect for the winning side...in reality the further East the Axis 'd go..the harder 'd it be to supply its forces.

T67AGC.27sep.png (572.68 KiB) Viewed 1490 times

[rhinobones]

TOAW has infinite speed/inifinite capability railways> Coupled with no truck breakdowns it can cause a supply runaway effect for the winning side...in reality the further East Germany 'd go..the harder 'd it be to supply its forces.

In a similar situation I lowered supply by a notch as new formations deployed. The idea was to simulate distribution of a fixed value of supply with increasing demand, each unit received an ever-decreasing piece of the total pie. Of course, this assumed each unit shared equally which is unrealistic, but it seemed to work better than maintaining a constant supply level regardless of total demand. Under certain conditions industry was increased (or captured) and supply was bumped up accordingly.

Maybe the same type of design concept can be used to simulate Axis logistics problems as they advance East.

Regards