Scenario: The Destruction of Southwestern Front vs Sov AI (Completed)

[jlbhung]

Turn 15 - Action Phase (Part 1)

In Crimea, the Soviet appeared to focused its defence on the Sevastopol Fortress. Axis advanced without meeting any resistance –

1. To the east, Axis troops block land connections and took the port Feodosiya (red dashed line).

2. In the northeastern corner, a German division was spared to attack the few Soviet isolated units. A rifle division with 8k men surrendered (blue dotted circle).

3. The Yevpatoriya port was taken. A Croatian regiment was immediately shipped to the port pending unload (white circle).

4. Advance towards Sevastopol was unsatisfactory (black dashed box). Poor terrain and light mud slowed down movements. Another reason was that many infantry units started the turn with only 11-12 movement points (MP), lower than the max 16 MP.
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T15 Action 1 Crimea.jpg (320.54 KiB) Viewed 1498 times

[jlbhung]

Turn 15 – Action Phase (Part 2)

Screenshot shows the area to the northeast of Crimea –

1. The Azov Pocket (white pocket) was partly reduced, with 5 Soviet divisions surrendered and 9 units remaining.

2. Two corps of infantry from 17A arrived at the frontline facing Stalino (red circle), relieving the 48 Mot.Corps (red box) to prepare for possible assault towards Rostov.

3. 1PzG’s 3rd Mot.Corps advanced towards Rostov, and found a line of Soviet units defending the eastern bank of the Mius River (black circle).

4. The Zaporozhye Pocket was completely eliminated (blue dashed circle). Four Soviet divisions and a brigade surrendered.
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T15 Action 2 Centre.jpg (423.81 KiB) Viewed 1497 times

[jlbhung]

Turn 15 – Action Phase (Part 3)

Rumanians were entrusted to lead the battle for Zaporozhye. Four Rumanian divisions, enforced by a German division, launched the attack.

Urban battle caused a lot of damages. After the battle, participating divisions had %ToE reduced to a range from 51 to 70% (enclosed in red dotted line).
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T15 Action 3 Z-Town.jpg (366.71 KiB) Viewed 1493 times

[jlbhung]

Turn 15 – Action Phase (Part 4)

Going to the North –

1. In the Kharkov area (see the red dashed circle), elements of 6A attempted to push Soviet units further east. 2PzG (to depart next turn) also took the opportunity to form a mini-pocket by crossing the Donets River. I also hope that attacks in this area could cause the AI to divert some forces from the Rostov sector to here.

2. In the Kursk area, the departure of 2A this turn left the XXXV Corps (black dotted circle) reported directly to OKH. It was not reassigned because no other Army HQs or the Army Group South had spare command points.
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T15 Action 4 North.jpg (353.54 KiB) Viewed 1485 times

[jlbhung]

Turn 15 – Use of Panzer/Armored Units in Attacks

This turn, 2 panzer divisions from 2PzG initiated hasty attacks in forming the mini-pocket nearby Donets River. The attacks were confined to weak Soviet divisions (CV1 on counter) and hence the losses were minimal.
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T15 Action 5 PzBattles.jpg (222.64 KiB) Viewed 1484 times

[jlbhung]

Turn 15 – Freight

With raining causing more hexes turned light mud, freight delivery was problematic. Despite a lot of trucks in units were used to carry freight (41225 out of 90685 vehicles in units, or 45% - see figures enclosed in red), all armies did not have sufficient supply (see green box).
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T15 Freight.jpg (178.17 KiB) Viewed 1482 times

[jlbhung]

Turn 16 – Air Results and Action Planning

Five Recon Air Directives were flown with only 1 recon aircraft lost. Air recon focused on the area leading to Rostov, as well as Sevastopol.

At the beginning of the turn, the port Yalta flipped to Axis control. So Axis focused all the naval patrol efforts on Sevastopol, losing 7 bombers and 6 escorts in keeping the port blocked.

This is the second last turn of the scenario. Action planned include -

1. From what recon revealed, it appears that there may be an opportunity to form a pocket (white box) southwest of the city Voroshilovgrad.

2. Recon did not reveal much in the vicinity of Rostov, 1PzG will advance and scout on ground (red arrow).

3. To clear the various small isolated pockets of Soviet troops (black dashed circles) – at southeast of Kharkov (3a), the Azov Shore Pocket (3b) and at the northeastern corner of Crimea (3c).

4. Attack the Sevastopol Fortress (blue dotted circle).
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T16 Air Result and Action Planning.jpg (348.35 KiB) Viewed 1415 times

[jlbhung]

Turn 16 – Action Phase (Part 1)

Isolated pockets were all cleared. Pic A shows the pocket at southeast of Kharkov. Pic B shows the Azov Shore Pocket and the pocket at the northeastern corner of Crimea. A total of 12 Soviet divisions and 2 smaller units eliminated (see Pic C).
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T16 Action 1 Pckts clr.jpg (196.17 KiB) Viewed 1414 times

[jlbhung]

Turn 16 – Action Phase (Part 2)

In Crimea, I was a bit disappointed as only four German infantry divisions had sufficient movement points to move next to the Sevastopol Fortress and launch deliberate attack. The attack failed, with fortification only slightly reduced from 5 to 4. I wondered whether I could capture Sevastopol in time before the end of the Scenario.
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T16 Action 2 Sevastopol.jpg (287.14 KiB) Viewed 1412 times

[jlbhung]

Turn 16 – Action Phase (Part 3)

In the Rostov area –

1. A pocket was formed with the city Stalino at the southwestern corner (the “Stalino pocket”). At least 11 Soviet units isolated.

2. Elements of 1PzG finally reached the outskirts of Rostov, and found another city fort!
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T16 Action 3 Rostov.jpg (296.97 KiB) Viewed 1411 times

[jlbhung]

Turn 16 – Use of Panzer/Armored Units in Attacks

Two attacks were made by the 16th panzer division this turn. It joined two motorized divisions in forming a stack to clear the path to Rostov. Screenshot shows the two battles.

For battle (a), Axis losses were much lower than expected. The two defending divisions were not defeated earlier this turn, and at an average of 85k men per division were not particularly weak. I don’t know if the low Axis losses were due to overwhelming attacking power, or whether the defenders were of very low experience/morale (which due to Fog of War is not revealed).

For battle (b), the low Axis losses were expected as the two defenders were weak - fewer than 10k men together.
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T16 Action 4 PzBattles.jpg (368.24 KiB) Viewed 1410 times

[jlbhung]

Turn 16 – Freight

Supply situation continued to worsen. Supply received this turn was much lower than need (see red box). In the extreme case of 17A, only 18% of needed supply was received (442 out of 2465, underlined in white). As to the spearhead, 1PzG received about 32% of its need (the one above 17A).
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T16 Freight.jpg (75.05 KiB) Viewed 1408 times

[jlbhung]

Turn 17 – Air Results and Plan for Action Phase

This is the last action turn for the scenario. Screenshot shows the two areas where land actions are to be taken –

1. Rostov sector (Pic A) – A major task is to clear the Stalino pocket (blue dashed circle). While the chance of breaking down the Rostov city fortress (black dashed circle) may not be high, I will still give it a try as this is already the last turn; and

2. Crimea (Pic B) – Blocking of the Sevastopol port continued. I hope I can conquer this isolated port city before the scenario ends.

The soft factor indicators on unit counters (the colored triangle at the top left-hand corner) are mostly orange to red in color. As the soft factor displayed is supply, the colors reflect the poor supply situation suffered by Axis troops. The supply problem also translated into lower CV and MPs for units.
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T17 Air Results.jpg (442.11 KiB) Viewed 1330 times

[jlbhung]

Turn 17 - Sevastopol

Nearly 88k German troops stormed the Sevastopol Fortress. It is noted that the number of German ground elements destroyed/damaged/disrupted in combat is somehow comparable to the Soviet side (see red boxes). German troops however enjoyed the advantage of having more elements in the battle.

With the capture of Sevastopol, Soviet lost 8 rifle divisions and a coastal artillery division.
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T17 Sevastopol.jpg (424.59 KiB) Viewed 1329 times

[jlbhung]

Turn 17 - Stalino Pocket

Next is the clearance of the Stalino Pocket. Axis captured 12 Soviet Divisions (smaller units not counted). Together with the earlier battle of Sevastopol, 21 Soviet divisions surrendered this turn (red box at right hand side of the screenshot).
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T17 Stalino Pckt.jpg (242.53 KiB) Viewed 1328 times

[jlbhung]

Turn 17 - Rostov

Finally comes the battle of Rostov. Axis troops in the vicinity that can reach Rostov and still have sufficient MPs to launch deliberate attack were haphazardly assembled for the battle. These included 3 motorized divisions (one broken down into regiments), 2 motorized brigades, 2 Cavalry brigades and 25 support units coming from three nations (Germany, Slovakia and Rumania).
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T17 Rostov.jpg (358.52 KiB) Viewed 1323 times

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Axis performance was poor. Axis elements disrupted (2704) were nearly three times that of Soviet (985). CV ratio was less than 1 (1:1.6). Fortunately the high intensity of urban battle disabled nearly all Soviet combat elements. Checking the Ground Losses Tab suggested that almost all Soviet ready elements after combat (deduct the TOT by destroyed/damaged/disrupted columns gave a rough estimation) were support squads and vehicles. Eventually the Soviet defenders routed – why not run when so many vehicles available.
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T17 Rostov 2.jpg (193.46 KiB) Viewed 1323 times

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The 9 Axis units participated in the battle ends with low %Toe (red box in the screenshot below). In the extreme case, the 1st regiment of 16th Motorized Division only had 12% Toe ready.
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T17 Rostov 3.jpg (230.78 KiB) Viewed 1323 times

[jlbhung]

Turn 17 - End of Axis Action Phase

Screenshot shows the frontline position as at end of Axis Action Phase. This is also more or less the end of game position.
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T17 End.jpg (662.42 KiB) Viewed 1321 times

[jlbhung]

Turn 17 - OOB and Losses

At end of Turn 17 Axis Action Phase, Axis has 1.9 million troops on map, more than 2.5 times the 719k troops of Soviet.
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T17 Stat1 OOB-Losses.jpg (472.22 KiB) Viewed 1320 times

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The following table compares the Soviet and Axis losses at different stages:
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T17 Stat2 Losses compare.jpg (88.78 KiB) Viewed 1320 times

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In the past 5 turns (T13-T17), Axis was more successful in reducing the size of the Soviet Army than the previous period (T8-12). However, this was achieved at a cost of higher losses. Another cause of the higher losses was more intense fighting in urban area/city fortress – Zaporozhye, Stalino, Sevastopol and Rostov were all conquered in the past 5 turns.

While combat losses were light, wear and tear had taken its toll on AFVs. Germany ended T17 Action Phase with 1,186 AFVs on map, of which only 797(67%) were in good condition. This was the lowest number since the start of the Scenario.

[jlbhung]

Turn 17 - Freight

Screenshot shows the freight delivery figures – amount of supply received continued to worsen from last turn (see the red box). In the worst case, less than 14% of 17A’s need was received (323 rec’d vs 2330 need). The spearhead, 1PzG, received less than 30% of its need (1310 rec’d vs 4546 need). I think 17A’s particularly poor situation is because it is at supply priority 3, and it locates closely to 1PzG which is at priority 4.
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T17 Freight.jpg (152.5 KiB) Viewed 1309 times

[jlbhung]

Turn 17 - Supply Network

Screenshot shows the supply network to the frontline at the beginning of the turn.
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T17 Supply Network front.jpg (787.97 KiB) Viewed 1306 times

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Key depots include –

1. Along the northern bank of the Dnepr River (black dashed box), from west to east:
(a) Zolotonosha, Cherkassy;
(b) Kremenchug; and
(c) Novomoskovsk.

2. Along the dual track rail in the centre (along the blue arrow), from west to east towards Stalino:
(a) Pyatikhatki;
(b) Verkhovtsevo;
(c) Dnepropetrovsk;
(d) Sinelnikovo;
(e) Chaplino; and
(f) Krasnoarmeyskoe.
The rail repair unit FBD1 (the unit outlined in yellow at the tip of the blue arrow) is just 3 hexes away from Stalino.

3. At the southern part of the Dnepr Bend (white box), from west to east:
(a) Apostolovo; and
(b) Nikopol.

4. In the South (red dashed circle), the port Nikolaev.

Given the poor supply situation, I wonder whether it would be better if the Axis had an additional rail connection from Odessa to Nikolaev and beyond in the South.

It is lucky that this scenario will not proceed into the heavy mud season, during which the supply situation is anticipated to become even worse.