Rematch 4 player game (Orm, Peskpesk, jjdenver and Mayhemizer)

[Mayhemizer_slith]

Final odds.

First blitz in France and then assault in Denmark (I don't see reason for Axis choosing blitz).

[Mayhemizer_slith]

No losses to either side, Axis units are retreated.

[Mayhemizer_slith]

Both units are retreated to forest hex, Allied units from coastal hex (ARM HQ, MECH and AA gun) advance.

[Mayhemizer_slith]

Invasion goes well.

[Mayhemizer_slith]

Rebase

CW
NAV2 from Algeria to Malta
ATR in UK 2 hexes NE to same hex with PARA

US
Liberator from Lisbon to Algeria
In the Pacific FTR2 from TRS to Adamstown
FTR2 from Scapa Flow to northern Denmark
FTR3 few hexes in New Herbines islands to Port Vila

FF
FTR2 in Egypt to coastal hex to get supply

USSR
2x LND4 to east, one of them near 1-5 CAV div
LND2 from Smolensk 2 hexes SW


HQ reorg
CW HQ Gort reorg FTR2 in southern France

[Mayhemizer_slith]

Less than 4 was needed to end turn, rolled 6.

Back to the Axis.

[Mayhemizer_slith]

During this Axis impulse I would like to ask you to have a small break before combat air patrol phase. Allies are low of fighters and depending on what happens during land move phase I might like to fly a combat air patrol mission.

[Mayhemizer_slith]

And to specify: I possibly use it during ground support phase.

[Orm]

May/Jun '43
Impulse #10 (Axis)

Land: Germany, Italy
Combined: Japan
Naval:

No port strikes. No naval air.

Naval Movement:
Japan:
TRS + MAR + CA (Wonsan) -> Sea of Japan 3-box
AMPH + GARR + 2 CV + 3 BB + CA (Fukuoka) -> Sea of Japan 3-box

No naval searches.

No strategic bombing.

Edit: Never mind the CAP question. I misread the step it was for.

[Orm]

Picture of the Japanese forces in the Sea if Japan.

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[Orm]

May/Jun '43
Impulse #10 (Axis)

Italy fly a bomber from Belgium, escorted by a German fighter from Netherlands, to ground strike the Allied invasion force in Denmark.

Will CW, or USA, intercept the ground strike?

CW has two CVP available, while USA can add one FTR2.

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[Mayhemizer_slith]

Are there any other Axis fighters in range to escort bombers later this impulse?

Edit: actually no intercept.

[Orm]

May/Jun '43
Impulse #10 (Axis)

One unit in the British invasion force was hit, and disorganized.

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[Orm]

Discussing luck, and statistics in regards of MWIF is interesting.

Italy just rolled a ground strike, and the rolls were clearly above average. The average result of the three rolls (2,8,10) are 6.67, and that is a lot higher than the expected average of 5.5. Yet, the end result of the strike with one unit disorganized was, in my humble opinion, the result as close to average as it is possible to get.

I find it fun that both of these can be true at the same time.

[Mayhemizer_slith]

This is difficult game when talking about statistics. You should always compare ”odds to succeed” with ”result”. Sometimes you try to roll high, sometimes low and sometimes just to avoin really low or really high.

Edit: and in air combat you try to avoid rolling average numbers in many cases you can indeed be rolling better than average and the result is lower than average.

Edit2: and in land combat sometimes ”success” means staying organized, sometimes taking hex and sometimes killing enemy units. So you can roll the same numbers with same odds an depending on situation think that result (take hex, enemy units retreat, half on your units are disorganized) is disaster, acceptable or great success.

[Orm]

You said it.

[Orm]

May/Jun '43
Impulse #10 (Axis)

Germany, and Italy, rail four units to SW France.
Italy:
ART (Genoa) -> 63,27
Germany:
7-4 INF (Vitebsk) -> Toulouse
4-1 GARR (Calais) -> 63,27
3-2 Mil (Boulogne) -> Toulouse

Japan rails one TERR from Seoul to Wonsan.

The first Italian territorial desert force attacks, and overruns, the Allied air base in the Tunisian desert. The SA unit based there flee before the onslaught. In what hex will the FTR2 land?

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[Mayhemizer_slith]

North, to hex west of Mustang fighter

[Orm]

May/Jun '43
Impulse #10 (Axis)

TERR continue and moves into Grand Erg Oriental in NE Algeria.

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[peskpesk]

May/Jun '43
Impulse #10 (Axis)

Land Movement continued:

Italy:
HQI (63,27) -> 61,27 (SW France)
MECH (63,28) -> 62,28 (SW France)
GARR (Tripoli) -> 81,39
MIL (Homs) -> Tripoli
TERR -> 82,55 in Egypt
HQI takes Matruh, and then moves back to hex 82,55 in Egypt
TERR (117,63) -> 120,62 in Tanganyika
MOT (Palermo) -> 73,38 (Sicily)
MOT (73,38) -> Syracuse (Sicily)
INF (61,30) -> 61,29 (S. France)
MIL (61,18) -> 61,30 (S. France)

Germany:
MECH (Paris) -> 61,27 (SW France)
HQI (61,25) -> 62,27 (SW France)
GARR (63,28) -> 62,28 (SW France)
INF Div (63,28) -> 62,28 (SW France)

Westwall.
Shuffles units around Belgium and Netherlands. Units move to attack allied landing in Denmark.

Eastern front.
Minor reinforcments arrive and a few moves.

Invasion:
Japan:
MAR + MAR Div + GARR (Sea of Japan) -> Vladivostok

The notional adds 3 points in defence, if it is used. We assume that it is in use. But will go back and change it if it is not is use.

Nine points of shore bombardment are added in support of the Japanese invasion.

Odds are 19:6 before ground support, or +5.33 (that includes notional defender)

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