Grunhilde gets antsy - 1941 GC

[loki100]

T37 – 1 March 1942

Over recent turns managed to lose 2 VP off map (have sent some stuff to Norway to match the TB requirements) but a couple of small delays to the N African chain – probably between 4-8 days.



Usual pattern, blizzards down to Kursk, snowfall elsewhere.

New form of warfare by the VVS



The only active sector was at Kursk where the Soviets made more gains on the flanks and again forced 2PzrA into action to deal with small breakthroughs. The city is still at risk but I can bring in fresh formations from elsewhere to improve the defences.

Elsewhere they seem to be on the defensive, even abandoning some gains south of Stalino.

So while the winter rules also apply in March, they are relatively minimal. Which makes this a good point to declare the Soviet offensive over and look at some trends.

So the table I've shown before. Still not sure these are a great set of metrics but they give some rough idea of developments (and a ready comparison to my last HtH).

Nothing dramatic, but both sides are a little bit stronger.. My truck situation is almost identical (but I am mostly further east), Soviet truck losses down a lot.

My losses are down in every category with only 60% of the tank losses – and that despite having to use the Pzrs around Kursk and Stalino.

Relatively limited air losses and the overall loss ratio of course favours the Axis.

Again I've defined a front line depot as one with a red trace to a combat unit.



My infantry are in good shape. The Germans are just over their NM and have around 80% of their rifle elements.



VP situation. I've lost a net 13 off the HWM, and the Soviets are starting to pick up a few VP for the Theatres (so they may well have sent some fresh formations there).

In terms of time bonuses, I'm down a net -5 on the cities I lost (and will shed another -6 for Kalinin later on). Of what I hold, I have 59/75 potential bonus pts (so 4 per city).

I still think there is a bit of either Leningrad or Stalingrad but I now think Leningrad will fall (may take a long time depending on the stored freight). So assume regain Orel and Rostov and take the other historical captures to time then 80 city points and 15 time gains. That'll give me a HWM of 682 built on a city value of 610 (so 10 less than historical). If I manage to find that missing 10 from new cities then I am doing very well



That summarises the front line and the Soviet winter gains. The only sector where I felt it went very wrong was trying to cling to Rostov after the VP expired.

My best guess is the Soviets have 8-9 Gds Rifle Divisions, one Gds Cavalry Divisoin and several Gds Rifle Corps. So not a lot, and certainly not enough to offset the 45NM problem. They have 2 armies (5 and 24) that basically win almost any battle they start but elsewhere they have had a lot of bloody defeats trying to break my front lines.



My opponent gave me this table so not a bad guess



More broadly his view is the lack of blizzard turns in December and January made a mess of any attempt to do much. My front line never really weakened (I almost never had more than a few formations under 50 TOE) so not only no real gains, failed to relieve Leningrad or to win battles consistently.

[tm1]

Did you manage to keep all your Pz Armee's in assault mode over the winter.

Looks like you succeeded in doing something OKH more or less failed to do, send 11th Armee, I could be wrong maybe some possibly did end up North but did not do what they were intended to do which was capture Leningrad.

[loki100]

Yes I keep them on assault, the additional command capacity at this stage is very welcome (and I can have quite a few infantry corps on faster CPP gain). My view is that in the winter the level 2 forts are a bit of a red herring - its not they are unwelcome but the way to minimise the impacts is via your depot set up not having lots of forts. By the time I'm on the strategic defensive the CC of the armies has gone up enough that I can mostly return the infantry to those commands (think you need 3-4 corps reporting to the AG level to achieve this) and again the bonus CPP gain and relative flexibility makes having 3 assault Pzr Armies after PzA 2 goes a good idea

yes the HQ and 2 of its corps went to Leningrad, the corps are actually now in PzA 4 but 11A has taken over a sector of the front. its a bit odd having all the armies one block south of normal. I also find 11A a pain when it has its shifts to an Army Group and then back to 8A, so it can do less harm on a quiet sector. The other corps saved me at Kursk - which is why I was so panicky about getting Sevastopol, not just horribly out of position if it held but also I really needed the assets elsewhere

if I recall, I think historically it all stayed in the south, as they had to clear the Crimea and then needed the formations for the wider Blau offensives?

[tm1]

Yes I keep them on assault, the additional command capacity at this stage is very welcome (and I can have quite a few infantry corps on faster CPP gain). My view is that in the winter the level 2 forts are a bit of a red herring - its not they are unwelcome but the way to minimise the impacts is via your depot set up not having lots of forts. By the time I'm on the strategic defensive the CC of the armies has gone up enough that I can mostly return the infantry to those commands (think you need 3-4 corps reporting to the AG level to achieve this) and again the bonus CPP gain and relative flexibility makes having 3 assault Pzr Armies after PzA 2 goes a good idea

yes the HQ and 2 of its corps went to Leningrad, the corps are actually now in PzA 4 but 11A has taken over a sector of the front. its a bit odd having all the armies one block south of normal. I also find 11A a pain when it has its shifts to an Army Group and then back to 8A, so it can do less harm on a quiet sector. The other corps saved me at Kursk - which is why I was so panicky about getting Sevastopol, not just horribly out of position if it held but also I really needed the assets elsewhere

if I recall, I think historically it all stayed in the south, as they had to clear the Crimea and then needed the formations for the wider Blau offensives?

Referencing Wikipedia.

11th Armee had one Korps plus the rail guns ( the rest stayed in the South ) sent North for a planned operation that never happened due to the Soviets launching there own earlier.

Here's your chance to to go one better and conduct Operation Northern Light (German: Nordlicht) to a successful outcome.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation ... cht_(1942)


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sinyavino ... ive_(1942)

[loki100]

Ah then that might be a very close match to what I've done, in effect one corps is in action at Leningrad, another went to Kursk and the final one to Stalino and the army command went somewhere else.

at the risk of a spoiler, I am going to be spending an awful lot of time in the coming turns tinkering with the OOB and force allocations as I try to solve a varying set of problems

[loki100]

T38 – 8 March 1942

Blizzard conditions almost everywhere – fortunately too late to be much more than a problem due to the deep snow.

Regained one of my lost VP



Main Soviet offensive was still around Kursk, this time I lacked the capacity to counter-attack, or even hold a solid line so pulled back to refit and relied on strongpoints to limit their gains.

Of more importance, 4PzA took another bridgehead over the Neva.



That is almost the last of the easy hexes (ie where I can attack from 3+ sides) but those were gained with the negative impact of blizzards and deep snow.



The mouse over suggests a cv of 675 in Leningrad.

Elsewhere, a few experimental attacks to see how the retreat/rout routine works. Again I intend to exploit this as much as I can, the Soviets might have a lot of manpower on the map but are vulnerable.



Losses



Which reinforces the view that the initiative has largely changed back to the Axis. The offensive at Kursk might retake the city but I think all it is likely to achieve is that 2 PzrA remains in constant action.

Add to the crippling lack of mobility in 1 PzrA and that leaves me worried about the southern portion of any offensive. But I still have April-May to hopefully refit and recover and let the truck stocks recover,

Working on the rail net for AGS, not so much to the front but trying to create more W-E links to ease any congestion problems.

And he'll miss it all ...

[tm1]

Just off subject a bit but your screen shots of maps are not in colour any more ?

I noticed in a previous screenshot Soviet 5th Army is back in the line, but has German Intelligence learned of the whereabouts of the Soviet 28th Army.

As much as it a powerful force that could disrupt your 1942 plans, better to know where it is than not to.

The old saying

" Keep your friends close but keep your enemy closer "

[loki100]

aye, I'm induiging my limited graphical skills, thought that black and white made it look a bit more period. It also usefully reduces what my opponent can interpret as its not so clear where the actual army boundaries are - of some importance with the amount of shifing around I'm doing.

Any time one of that pair is out of sight I'm worried. They are a bit like a 1916 era High Seas Fleet - if they get into sustained action I can probably take them out but if they are there on the edge then I need constantly to guard against them - fresh and on a sort of hit and run attack they can beat pretty much anything I have so there is always the fear that he finds a weakly held sector and really dismantles it. Especially once the Tank Corps give him the mobility. But if he gets that commitment wrong I can destroy them so its an interesting part of each turn's sub-game

[loki100]

T39 – 15 March 1942

Weather improves to snowfall and a mix of deep or lighter snow across the front.

Start a new phase of the airwar, trying to isolate Leningrad via Lake Ladoga.



Clearly not enough, but I have LB in the reserve, and will be more effective as the weather clears.



Another gain, now its down to 2 hexside attacks and lots of fortifications to deal with.



Overall, on map action had a N-S split. In addition to the direct assault on Leningrad, 11A resumed its limited offensive around Lake Ilmen. In part with a goal of inflicting losses but also to gain a better defensive line – and remove any real chance of the Soviets organising a relief effort.



16A launched a similar pattern of attacks, clearing out some Soviet salients.

Of longer term intent, 9 and 2 Armies backed by elements of 3 PzrA attacked across the front. If feasible, the intention is to regain Vyazma and Orel as a precursor to the main summer campaign.

If this forces the Soviets to stop battering 2 PzrA that will also be a bonus.



The Soviet offensive continued at Kursk as 4A and 2PzrA increasingly relied on a series of strong points to hold the front and tried to eliminate any Soviet formations that bypassed these.



To the south, the apparent suspension of the Soviet offensive allowed the battered formations of AGS a chance to refit and pull back to re-organise.

Losses much the same as usual for these turns, ideally I need to push their losses to around 100k a turn to avoid any net growth in their manpower.



No real change to the on-map Soviet army but their reserve is expanding.



My logistics situation slowly improving but a huge backlog of unmet demand for AGS.



Signs that the Soviet manpower is building up, Rumanians have taken heavy losses, especially in the Crimea



Tank production is still being used up as its created, but the Pzr divisions are well placed to fit out very quickly – and I can keep most of the replacement battalions back as a summer reserve.



LW well placed for the summer battles

[loki100]

T40 – 22 March 1942

Attempt to blockade Leningrad really not working – not helped by the VVS more than matching my commitment. Need to decide on a solution, incl possibly adding more formations or just waiting till the weather improves.

Looks like very localised blizzards at Leningrad next week while the rest of the map is cold (so clear skies).

Mostly quiet turn, Soviet offensive at Kursk slowed with only limited attacks on the eastern flank.

2 PzrA regaining its mobility, 1 PzrA still refitting.

A series of attacks by 11, 16, 9 and 2 Armies seeking to create options for the main summer offensive.



In turn XXXXI Pzr Corps exploited a gap in the Soviet lines as part of the attempt to retake Orel.

Losses, again much as usual. Noting that the Soviet tank brigades seem to be fairly fragile and take heavy losses both used offensively and on the defensive.

[Stamb]

Noting that the Soviet tank brigades seem to be fairly fragile and take heavy losses both used offensively and on the defensive.

yeah
they take tremendous losses, and pretty often lose 80%-90% of their tanks in a single battle, even under top commanders with good mech rating
the only limiting factor is how many brigades/tank corps Soviets will have
and it is not uncommon to see 1k-2k AFV losses for a Soviets per turn
while IRL this losses were only in the biggest tank battles

i hope Soviets tanks performance will be reviewed as it was with a panzers
as right now Soviet tanks remind me Soviet fighters
you can babysit them
train, use modern planes, trained pilots, best altitudes but in the end you end up losing 100 fighters + 200 bombers for 10 German planes in a single fight

[loki100]

its not the tanks as such, its keying off the decision to make low exp armour less likely to fire.

its like a few of the recent changes - it needs time to settle down. Axis players need to use the new dynamics for 1941 and then to see how that sets up 1942. Here I made the mistake of playing the first 4-5 turns as if the old dynamics were present so never attacked with Pzrs, very cautious about leaving them vulnerable and so on.

Equally its not unrealistic, it really wasn't till late 42 that the Soviets started to get tank-infantry co-operation working on the offensive. And that was the set piece opening to the Stalingrad offensive. They were still making a real mess of it on the AGC sector well into 1943.

So its different, certainly worth noting and flagging up but there is a bit of wait and see as to whether its too much or not

the issue with the VVS is different and I agree - at one stage it was feasible to come up with a fairly brutal attrition strategy that got the LW ground down. This game is now into the early summer and its pretty clear I can sweep their fighters from the skies turn after turn, so they never build up either a pilot cadre or actually much of a fighter stock. In turn that renders their LB and tactical bombers pretty much out of the game as with no escorts its a fly/die relationship

[Stamb]

but even in your last game vs Steve (where this routine that causes low exp tank units to fire less was bugged and not working, or working but not as it should) Soviets tanks losses were enormous
especially when Soviet tanks were under attack
i still do not understand why tanks are so bad at defense

[loki100]

the Soviet tank corps TOE is poor until the late 43/44 variants. You have to stack in lot of infantry (pref mot rifle brigades) to compensate while a lot of Soviet players (esp first time) tend to add more tanks (brigades or later heavy tank regiments). My current opponent is doing it with mot brigades and they are far more robust - still taking losses (low exp etc) but I think they are harder to beat

this is one of the issues that come from the 'black box' combat model, there is no obvious clue that a given CU/SU combination is better or worse.

I'm a great fan of limited LH-RH testing, I learnt a huge amount about the feedback routines in WiTE1 that way and its really the only way to understand the interaction of strategic bombing and ground warfare in WiTW. Sometimes its no bad thing to take an AI game and take control for a batch of turns, you really start to see the impact of actions and choices (ok you also tend to only see the impacts of your ideas and choices)

[loki100]

T41 – 29 March 1942

New weather pattern of blizzards at Leningrad and clear cold skies over the rest of the front.

After a winter carefully looking after my tanks, I managed to lose a lot in Soviet counter-attacks at Orel.





Very frustrating as so self-inflicted. The only good thing from that is it saw the Soviets abandon their positions at Kursk as they redeployed. Feasibly they could return next turn but I now have most of 3 PzA facing Orel so it would probably cost them the city they are defending.

11A carried on its low level offensive in the Valdai, the immediate goal is to cut the Soviet rail line supplying their formations east of Novgorod, beyond that regaining Rzhev and perhaps cutting the dual track from Moscow in more places.

Tactically, the retreat/rout ratio is high, so this creates more attrition on the overall Soviet capacity.



16A undertook a similar set of attacks towards Vyazma.

Despite last week's set backs, the wider Orel offensive was renewed. 3PzrA regrouped and reinforced for a more sustained effort next week as replacement tanks were rushed to the front (saving the repl battalions has been really useful, not least they are full of my most modern tanks). 2A made gains to the south. Around Kursk 2 PzrA and 4A committed to a larger offensive. The Soviets were driven back from their positions outside the city while 2 PzrA cut deep into their defensive lines to the east (here my gamble is they lack counter-attacking capacity).

Starting to run limited recon again so have some idea of the deeper deployment of the Soviet formations.



AGS mostly rested and rebuilt.

Soviet losses up compared to recent weeks (apart from the latest disastrous battle around Feyodosia).

Pity about my tanks but I can replace them – so that softens the blow.



They are clearly drawing down their reserves.



VP situation. Passed the late 42 sudden loss value, no chance at an auto win for some time. Have picked up a net +3 from the TB over the last month.

Shows the cities I'm expected to be holding or capture into 1942. Given the current dynamics, my assumption is that Rostov and Orel will be retaken, probably Rzhev. Beyond that not sure, given the state of 1PzrA, in no position to attack into the Caucasus at the moment.

Equally no idea how Leningrad will resolve itself. I've taken the 'easy' hexes (ie those I can attack from at least 3 sides) so it maybe very attritional to make more gains. If I can isolate Osinovets then it all changes.



Various truck and ship metrics. My basic truck/unit ratio stays at near 90% but another 8% are pulled off into the logistics system.

Production plus repair is giving me around 24,000 per turn but in addition to the 1,000 lost there are a lot more damaged so any real improvement is slow.

[Veterin]

T41 – 29 March 1942

New weather pattern of blizzards at Leningrad and clear cold skies over the rest of the front.

After a winter carefully looking after my tanks, I managed to lose a lot in Soviet counter-attacks at Orel.





Very frustrating as so self-inflicted. The only good thing from that is it saw the Soviets abandon their positions at Kursk as they redeployed. Feasibly they could return next turn but I now have most of 3 PzA facing Orel so it would probably cost them the city they are defending.

11A carried on its low level offensive in the Valdai, the immediate goal is to cut the Soviet rail line supplying their formations east of Novgorod, beyond that regaining Rzhev and perhaps cutting the dual track from Moscow in more places.

Tactically, the retreat/rout ratio is high, so this creates more attrition on the overall Soviet capacity.



16A undertook a similar set of attacks towards Vyazma.

Despite last week's set backs, the wider Orel offensive was renewed. 3PzrA regrouped and reinforced for a more sustained effort next week as replacement tanks were rushed to the front (saving the repl battalions has been really useful, not least they are full of my most modern tanks). 2A made gains to the south. Around Kursk 2 PzrA and 4A committed to a larger offensive. The Soviets were driven back from their positions outside the city while 2 PzrA cut deep into their defensive lines to the east (here my gamble is they lack counter-attacking capacity).

Starting to run limited recon again so have some idea of the deeper deployment of the Soviet formations.



AGS mostly rested and rebuilt.

Soviet losses up compared to recent weeks (apart from the latest disastrous battle around Feyodosia).

Pity about my tanks but I can replace them – so that softens the blow.



They are clearly drawing down their reserves.



VP situation. Passed the late 42 sudden loss value, no chance at an auto win for some time. Have picked up a net +3 from the TB over the last month.

Shows the cities I'm expected to be holding or capture into 1942. Given the current dynamics, my assumption is that Rostov and Orel will be retaken, probably Rzhev. Beyond that not sure, given the state of 1PzrA, in no position to attack into the Caucasus at the moment.

Equally no idea how Leningrad will resolve itself. I've taken the 'easy' hexes (ie those I can attack from at least 3 sides) so it maybe very attritional to make more gains. If I can isolate Osinovets then it all changes.



Various truck and ship metrics. My basic truck/unit ratio stays at near 90% but another 8% are pulled off into the logistics system.

Production plus repair is giving me around 24,000 per turn but in addition to the 1,000 lost there are a lot more damaged so any real improvement is slow.

I don't meant to side-track the AAR but how do you determine you're producing 24k trucks per turn (prod + repair). Still trying to interpret all the reports but i see 5.5k repaired and 3.7k production.

What does the 18.5k vehicles consumed relate to as all i can see is 1,567 trucks lost in freight.

[loki100]

good questions, it doesn't help that the components of that table are split across 4 or 5 screens.

yes you are right about my per turn gain, I was clearly being very optimistic when I declared it added up to 24k, production (from both sources) is indeed around 9.2k per turn

that bottom table is from the logistics report and the table on the production tab. There 'consumed' is what was consumed to make the item, so for some lines its arms points or supply or named chassis. For trucks its 'supply' which is produced by HI

[loki100]

T42 – 5 April 1942

Well the weather is wierd. Blizzards/deep snow at Leningrad, blizzards/snow in the Valdai, cold/snow south of Kharkiv and everywhere else heavy rain/heavy mud (including where I attacked last week).

If the forecast is right, heavy rain in the north and staying cold/clear in the south.

Some probing attacks by 11 and 17A but the most important was a significant gain at Leningrad.

That puts the Germans next to Osinovets which should constrict Soviet options.



T43 – 12 April 1942

This turn heavy rain/heavy mud north of Orel cold/snow to the south and then rain/mud along the Sea of Azov.

Next week may well be the reverse



Limited German attacks to the east of Kursk where the conditions are good, Not risking much but probing the Soviet set up and seeking to cut some of the N-S rail net if possible. Orel has to be the first real target here or will become badly over-stretched.

Soviets steadily reinforcing, at least they are still under 6m on map.

At last the bulk of the Hungarians are on trains heading east. Useful to fill out AGS.



Picked up an off map VP, so up to 591 (still 9 under HWM). No important changes to the targets or the time frames. Just hoping that 1 PzrA regains some mobility or its going to be a long walk to Stalingrad and the Caucasus.



Equally still not sure how Leningrad is going to resolve. The next round of attacks are not going to be easy. This shows their stacks from west-east.

I really need to inflict an effective naval interdiction but I fear ending up with a long siege.

[loki100]

T44-45: 19 – 26 April 1942

Run these turns together as events were fairly limited. Main feature was the highly variable weather, both at the larger level with areas of heavy or light rain and even hex by hex with heavy mud next to light.

T44 saw limited offensives aimed at Orel and north and south of Vyazma. While Orel is a direct target, elsewhere prepared to use infantry attacks to depress Soviet morale. Also find that Soviet units, at this stage, take enough losses in a single battle that they need to pulled for a refit (if they stay on the line they are a near guarenteed rout), which in turn gives me a bit more scope. An attempt to deepen the salient around Kursk was stopped but a small 2 division pocket was overrun.

T45 saw similarly confusing weather and a failed attempt to breach the Soviet line at Leningrad.



Offensive at Kursk was stalled again but another 4 divisions were lost in small pockets. In the end, I think these add up. My guess is it takes about 5 weeks to raise a replacement formation, push its experience into the mid-40s bring to the map and allocate to the front line. As with the retreat/rout routine it all creates operational space.

At Orel, elements of 2A and 3PzrA made steady progress despite some strong Soviet counter-attacks. To the east, 2PzrA was again stalled by the Soviets guarding the route towards Voronezh. With less favourable supply, the Pzrs are pulled from the line to refit.

Of some concern on this sector was the disappearance of the powerful Soviet 5 and 24 Armies from the front lines. Given they seem to contain the core striking power of the Red Army I'd rather know just where they are.

Weather still not good enough for much recon.





Overall losses in my favour – helped by the small pockets. Tanks losses still low despite their commitment to combat and the successful Soviet counter-attacks.





Air war continues to be fairly brutal, I'm just staying within my trained pilot allocation.



Supply traces for most of the front. The only really stretched area is east of Kursk, in part as the W-E rail net is poor here.



Repaired rail net for AGC. Have one FBD working its way back to the border to open up more W-E cross border links. These are invaluable in reducing congestion and by this stage (I think) almost as important as linking up to the front. I've repaired the damage done by Soviet cavalry in their winter incursions.

I'll add FBD5 to this backfill effort when it becomes available, the auto-repair units are doing a good enough job linking up to the current front lines.

I've finally diverted a FBD to sort out the rail lines in the Crimea.

[tyronec]

makes having 3 assault Pzr Armies after PzA 2 goes a good idea

What does 'PzA 2 goes' mean. Does it automatically lose assault status at the end of the year ?