GC 1941: Beethoven (Soviet) vs jubjub (Axis)

[Beethoven1]

Soviet Turn 7 (August 3, 1941)

In the north, I stiffened my defense in the Valdai area as much as possible, because i suspect that he wants to go that way to cut the double rail and perhaps towards Moscow, rather than Leningrad itself. The two divisions of the Kiev garrison, both of which have high CPP and offensive CVs of 9, man the central hex directly on the rail line behind Staraya Russa, with the level 1 fort. This gives it a nominal CV of 60-70 or so. However, I only really have that one line, not much behind it because 4 units on/near the Valdai depot are depleted.

Bagramyan was appointed as a new Army Leader and put in charge of the Valdai area. I have a couple of divisions on reserve for the first time (highlighted in pink), hoping for maybe a surprise hold or two as a way to start building up wins for eventual Guards status. This is arguably the most important part of the front for the next turn or two, because I need the German advance to stall here in order to maintain control of the double rail to Leningrad, ideally until winter, but if not that long, then as long as possible. If I can do that, it will not only protect the northern flank towards Moscow, but also greatly aid the Leningrad area defense.



In the center, I likewise have two fairly high CV mountaineers on reserve, in the hopes that jubjub will try a hasty attack against a weak unit somewhere, and then it will fail with a reserve activation, generating some wins. I don't have tanks on reserve, only infantry (and some mech with very low AFVs). The reason for that is I don't want my AFVs to end up dead in a losing defensive battle against infantry. I want my AFVs to destroy German Panzers and neutralize some of the German mobile threat in carefully selected counterattacks, so I don't want them getting into just any old random battle.

I don't really have additional reinforcements here, but I have enough troops so that I full scale breakthrough smashing the entire line and getting to Vyazma should be impossible. Since I have several layers of depth, what should start happening is that I should start having level 1 forts to retreat into in future turns, which will hopefully turn this area into a slow meatgrinder, and thereby help ensure Moscow remains safe in 1942 as well as 1941. I retreated a bit from the swamps near Yelnya, to try to avoid too large of a potential encirclement there, since he broke through the swamp that is directly on the main double rail line. Also notice at the edge of the screenshot right next to Velikie Luki I see an FBD on recon. This is the first time I have ever seen FBDs on recon, and it seems to confirm that jubjub wants to push the North or North-center.



My line between Yelnya and Gomel keeps getting weaker as I have been shifting more troops to the north in front of the main German thrust along the double rail. If jubjub sent his armor down here he could probably make some good initial progress, but it would not be with the double rail line towards Moscow. Also if he does, I will rotate more troops down here. But Bryansk could be a serious concern area over the next few turns, if jubjub wants it to be (no sign of that so far, likely for logistical reasons). Also you can see another FBD on recon near Orsha.



The vast empty hinterlands:



My defense here is pretty weak, I just don't have the troops for more. However, I do have some good tanks under Vatutin and Batov, that keep getting stronger, and am sending more tank/mech reinforcements in this direction.



I could have more troops there if I were not defending Crimea. In my previous games I have not tried to defend Crimea. This time I am trying it. I am really not sure it will be worth it, but we will see.



I spent AP this turn to put Mikhail Kazakov in charge of the Coastal Army. Why him? Because he is an ok leader, with pretty good admin and infantry ratings by Soviet standards. However, I am afraid that whichever general defends Crimea will end up being KIA, and he is not a great leader. So if he dies, it will be bad, but at least not an irreplaceable horrible loss of one of my very best generals.

[Beethoven1]

Axis Turn 8 (August 10, 1941)

This was the first turn played with the 1.02.11 patch. As a result primarily of that, my losses were less bad than in previous turns. 37k of my 130k losses were from the isolated units in the south surrendering, so I lost less than 100k from actual combat for the first time in a while. But as a result of the previous turns being played with the artillery patches, the manpower of the Red Army has been cumulatively weakened as compared to what it would have been with another patch.



Well, jubjub didn't attack towards Valdai at all. Apparently he saw my strong entrenched units and decided to grind northwards instead.





The screenshot shows the hold reserve activation jubjub is referring to.

However, only a couple of his Panzers/motorized attacked and/or are visible, so it is possible some might have left and gone somewhere else. Or they could just be resting.

Also, jubjub left out some pretty weak looking regiments which are tempting to counterattack.


In the center, jubjub encircled 2 of my infantry, which is not that bad in the grand scheme of things. They are pretty close to full strength. However, they are only 50 morale and both have 0 wins - which is not an accident. The high morale divisions and higher win divisions are in safer locations. Once again, NONE of my high morale divisions got into a defensive battle, with the exception of reserve activations (and all reserve activations were wins).



The unit holding the corner of the pocket open is the 5th Panzer division. 5th Panzer starts in the Western Europe theater box, so it must have been transferred. Likewise 2nd Panzer, which has appeared a few hexes away. I similarly got a couple of holds in the center. This one was a hold with another reserve activation from one of my mountaineer divisions.



5th Panzer is shown as having 10 CV, but it has the same offensive as defensive CV, which is probably not right, so it may be a bit higher. I will bomb it, then scout it with cavalry, and then decide whether to counterattack it.





Dnepropetrovsk is ZOC locked with 2 infantry in it, but apparently I guessed the MP about right, because all my tanks and mech are untouched, only 2 cav and 1 infantry (across the river) were attacked.



Infantry has entered Crimea, and we have some naval interdiction:

[Beethoven1]

Soviet Turn 8 (August 10, 1941)

I did an attack here against the weak German regiment, which easily succeeded. However, the regiment had a CV of 5, not 2 like my intel had showed. I should have looked more closely at the CV, which confirmed that the 2=2 was wrong, and also was an indication that the 2=2 on the other regiment to the north was likely wrong as well. This is my first attack on the new patch, and it is good that it confirms that it is possible for me to attack on this patch at least sometimes in '41. It gets a win for 7 units which maybe eventually will help make some of them be Guards units, and the morale on basically all of them went up from 50 to 52 or 53 or so. However, note on the battle screenshot that NO German support artillery joined.



I figured since that attack worked, maybe another one would work as well. However, on this one I only had 2 divisions to attack with. I could have attacked with 1 or 2 units more, but wouldn't have had MP to retreat to where I would want to afterwards. This attack was also over a river, whereas the other one was not. Alas, this one did not work:



So this is confirmation that not just any old attack will work. Perhaps significantly, 3 support artillery units joined for Germany in this battle, whereas none joined in the other one, and the German general is also better. So I can already attack German infantry regiments, but may need to be selective about when/where I do so.


Next I scouted the Panzer with cavalry. The Panzer apparently has an attached Army Mot. Army Flak Battalion. I checked in single player, which has 8 88mm AA guns in it. a 20 88 mm Flak guns participated in the battle against the cav, with a LW Mot. Mixed Flak Battalion also joining (not directly attached, joining from the HQ). The other thing I see is the Panzer division actually has defensive CV of 14.0 on the light forest, a bit higher than my intel showed.

So I consider whether the Flak should actually deter me from attacking or not. Relevant points:

1) Germany has a LOT of those Flak battalions with 8 '88s. He can and will attach those on a lot (most/all?) of his Panzer divisions. So if one single directly attached Flak battalion with just 8 '88s is enough to deter an attack, I won't be doing a many attacks.

2) I have about 10k AFVs, most of which are light tanks. Even if I preserve them and don't use them, it won't be that long before my tank divisions disappear and turn into brigades, and my mech divisions start turning into rifle divisions in '42. So I am sort of in a use it or lose it situation, without much incentive to preserve my tanks if I have a decent opportunity for a counterattack.

3) If I do attack, I should be able to attack with at least 4 to 1 CV advantage and about 5 to 1 numerical superiority, with full or high CPP divisions, and with my best commanders on an assault front. That is an attack which should be very likely to succeed, at least on paper, unless the patch changed things a lot.

4)The 100 CPP on my 100 CPP divisions is not going to get higher if I pass on an attack, so I am also in a use it or lose it situation with CPP gain.

5) I also have a lot of high morale and high CPP infantry which can join the attack, and with a (likely?) win get closer to Guards status.

6) Even if an attack fails, it should probably destroy enough German AFVs to cause significant damage to the Panzer division, and certainly will use up ammo etc.

7) A successful attack would break out two fairly full strength divisions. They are unlikely to permanently survive, but re-pocketing them will slow his advance to a non-negligible extent.

So for all these reasons it seems like I should pretty much definitely do the attack. If it does succeed, I will know that I can do reasonable counterattacks on Panzers in this patch. If it doesn't succeed, I will know that you really need truly overwhelming odds to attack a Panzer division in this patch (at least in early 1941).


The results of the attack were indeed a success, confirming that I can do reasonable counterattacks with this patch, even against Panzer divisions in decent defensive terrain. Jubjub's Panzer retreated with a loss of 82 AFVs, among them 41 Panzer IIIs and 12 Panzer IVs. I lost 307 AFVs, which even included a couple of T-34s that managed to somehow find their way out of the theater boxes and onto the actual battlefield:





Jubjub's 88s did have 68 AP hits, so they had an effect, but the Panzer IIIs and the 37mm AT guns actually both seem to have knocked out more of my AFVs.



That is 9 more divisions with an additional win, that much closer to Guards status, and the morale also went up on a good number (though not all) of my attacking divisions. And this is now the 2nd of the German Panzer divisions in the center that has been heavily damaged and will now be low on AFV TOE, probably out of action for a bit, and in need of refitting, to try to get replacements as best as it can with the German freight limitations. And it is 2 of my rifle divisions freed (at least one turn) from being pocketed.




Near Dnepropetrovsk, Soviet cavalry cut off the Das Reich division along with the 16th Panzer division. Stalin's move of puttin Semyon Budyonny in charge of STAVKA continues to bear fruit. Thanks to his leadership, our cavalry continually achieves great victories:



The CV of the 16th Panzer division first appeared on intel as being 18, but on closer inspection by our cavalry, its actual CV turned out to only be 6.8 (with 1.2 more from the attached support units). As such, this division could have been fairly easily routed, and I was very very very very very tempted to do so. Bread tried persuading me to hold my fire for now, due to the risk of getting my tanks hit by counterattacks next turn:



But after calculating how many MP I would have to escape, I decided to attack anyway, which ended up resulting in the loss of 89 more Axis AFVs and 458 vehicles as the 16th Panzer division routed:



Jubjub doesn't like breaking down into regiments, but is it better to break down into regiments and have a regiment retreat, or is it better to have a division rout? One advantage of counterattacking divisions as opposed to regiments is I can attack against more Axis AFVs while losingg less CPP, since fewer attacks are required on fewer units.




Further to the south, there were more cavalry shenanigans:










At the end of the turn, front line looked like this:



I pulled back slightly in Estonia because (although probably unlikely) I was in a somewhat exposed position if even a single mobile unit were to show up as a surprise, and there are a couple unaccounted for in the north. I built some additional forts in the Leningrad area since his Panzers are still apparently trying to push here. There are some additional reinforcements coming also, however I started to rotate some of the lower quality units (a NKVD and naval infantry) to the south, so over time I should end up with pretty much only good quality infantry in the north. Hopefully with the new patch the line will start to really stabilize here, which wouldn't have happened with the beta artillery patch, but may happen now. Ideally I don't want to merely hold Leningrad, I want the German advance to stall well in front of Leningrad so that it is out of reach for the rest of the game, if for no other reason than so that I don't have to deal with annoying naval interdiction and supply problems.



I have a lot of high morale units and units with wins in the center, but they are all on the 3rd line deep or more, so that they will be less likely to end up being pocketed. I pulled back very slightly from the salient south of Velikie Luki to shorten my line and to reduce the risk of potential encirclement in the light forest terrain behind VL. In particular, I am slightly concerned that the triple stack with the ? 2 hexes east of VL could be Panzers/motorized coming down from Pskov towards the center. Also for that reason the mountaineers were withdrawn from the very front and placed on reserve. I started building some forts back around Rzhev to Borodino.



My defense keeps getting lighter and lighter in the Bryansk/Gomel sector. This turn some of the tanks/mech I had relocated towards Kharkov (also a couple of the ones in the center did likewise).



I have ended up in the unintended position of defending Kharkov. Really I want to be defending Stalino and only lightly defending Kharkov. However, my tanks that routed the Panzer needed to retreat to the north-east to get as far away as possible, and had slightly less MP to retreat than I thought they had (unanticipated extra MP cost due to some weirdness with a river and maybe roads or something), so I need to protect them well with cavalry. I don't want German motorized divisions to have a chance to attack my tanks, because if they do, they will destroy many of my AFVs. So I put up a cav wall between Dnepropetrovsk and my retreating tanks. Also note in the screenshot that near Kharkov I have 2 stacks with 22 and 17 offensive CV, respectively. So if Germany does send up units against the cavalry etc and ends up giving me another shot at another Panzer division, I am in a position where I should be able to take it. But I am half expecting him to pretty much ignore my units and simply encircle Dnepropetrovsk and cautiously advance another 5 hexes or so towards Stalino. We will see how he reacts.



Forts have started building around Rostov. I hope to be able to hold Rostov until winter, but we will see if that ends up being viable or not.



Jubjub already started naval interdicting Sevastopol. But I am not really intending to try to hold Sevastopol, insofar as I hold anywhere it will have to be Yalta. Sevastopol is not going to be able to hold very long, so there is not much point even attempting to counter the interdiction at this point, since I won't benefit from any extra supply brought in now anyway. But I know it is impossible to counter German naval interdiction if it is done correctly, so I may end up not lasting in Yalta either despite the better terrain than Sevastopol (mountain rather than rough). I am still doubtful how wise it is to defend Crimea as I am doing, but I am sort of stuck at this point. A couple units did leave by sea - 1 infantry division, 1 naval rifle brigade, and a couple cav.

[Beethoven1]

Axis Turn 9 (August 17, 1941)

Thanks to our recent bombing of Ploesti, Axis oil stores are declining. Although this may have no actual effect on game mechanics, we may nevertheless imagine that it raises the simulated morale of our troops. The infantryman doesn't know how production game mechanics work.



Not many attacks in the north. The 1st Leningrad Militia Rifle Division, however, got 2 holds. In both cases, the holds were really due to reserve activations of stronger higher CPP/morale infantry divisions. But thanks to those other divisions, the Leningrad Militia division now has 1/4 of the wins it needs for Guards eligibility.

The fact that there were not more attacks means there are quite a few mobile divisions unaccounted for. Where are they, and what do they have planned? Hmmm. Are they going to continue to slog forward in the north (could have worked under the old artillery-buffing beta patch), or will they give up on that and suddenly show up somewhere else, likely in the center?



The attacks were also fairly restrained in the center.

I note that everywhere jubjub has a Panzer division, there is also an infantry division on the hex. This is presumably meant to deter counterattacks against Panzers like the ones I have previously done... Unless this is unintentional, but I suspect not. I also note that he routed the 2 units that had previously been encircled, rather than trying to re-encircle them. This suggests that he may have given up on trying to encircle too many units in this area, for fear of the counterattacks that he knows my good units can pull off.

I got a hold near Velikie Luki. Again, this was with a reserve activation (from the 5=11 Mountaineer).



Even fewer attacks here. The quiet before the storm? There is a small salient developing around Roslaval due to the lack of German attacks and advance here. Salients can be hazardous to my health. I wouldn't be surprised if some Panzers show up next turn.



Not much to say in the center-south. jubjub doesn't want to advance quickly into the supply desert in the middle of the map, and I don't have much there to stop him from doing so if he changes his mind except for a few low quality speedbumps.



In the south, no attacks on my cavalry screen that was protecting my tanks, and a very slow, cautious advance after the Panzer was routed. I am happy with this because it means I should be able to re-orient towards Stalino now. I would also note that the Panzer in Pavlograd stopped behind a river. Is that an accident, or is it behind a river because that is safer against counterattacks? My 21 and 23 CV mech/tank stacks near Kharkov would be probably slightly past the edge of their viable counterattack range to do a deliberate attack and then get far away enough for safety.



Likewise in Crimea:



Despite the fairly low number of battles and lack of pockets being cleared, I nevertheless lost more than 130k men. I'm up to (barely) more than 2.8 million in the field, but that is only because I have been ransackingg theater boxes as quickly as I can.



Not having the beta patch that buffed artillery clearly helps, but I am nevertheless continuing to take substantial losses (even while barely fighting in the south):





Here's the win/loss record of my top 10 highest morale divisions. You have to go all the way down to #7 to find a single division that has any losses at all. The top 6 are all 100% wins. That tends to mean that their morale doesn't fall and tends if anything to get higher. One of them has 4 wins already, halfway to Guards status already.




And here is the morale and experience of all my tank divisions which have >50 morale. There are quite a few of them that have gotten above 50. Every single one of them has at least one win, and none of them has even a single loss. You had better believe that these are all set on 100% max TOE and on refit:



And here's the win/loss of as many of my tank divisions as can fit on the screen. Most of them have pretty much kept out of combat while their experience and morale have gone up:



So my total AFV count has held pretty steady as a result.



Also because of this, after the first turn or two of capturing vehicles, I have stopped jubjub from being able to capture too many vehicles. And the routed Panzer last turn cancels out almost 500 of those previously captured vehicles. Although I would always like that to be lower, 16.5k doesn't seem too bad at this stage.

[Beethoven1]

Soviet Turn 9 (August 17, 1941)

I am feeling very good about the north at this point. Thanks to the new patch without the extremely strong artillery, Germany suddenly has a much more difficult time pushing here and the terrain makes much more of a difference. I think I could have held Leningrad at least for 1941 if we had stayed on the artillery beta patch, but without it my defense is now turning into a wall which is increasingly difficult for Germany to push. Right now, I could form a line between Lake Pskov and Lake Ilmen that is ENTIRELY made up of Swamp, Heavy Forest, and Rough terrain. I already have some very high defensive CVs which should get higher as the fort levels start to reach level 2. The front line is also fairly short and straight, which makes it easier to defend. I suspect that jubjub may decide to withdraw his Panzers and send them to somewhere they can be more productive. If so, I can start withdrawing some excess troops as well as the fort levels get built up. The rail to Valdai is defended pretty much just as strongly, with one fort already to level 2 (which will be level 3 I am pretty sure when jubjub does his next turn) and with 100+ defensive CV with 3 divisions guarding it.

So there do not seem to be a lot of options for Germany in the north at this point, due to the fact that I have kept pouring in as many troops as necessary to bringg the advance to a halt. The only thing he could really do other than try to grind slowly forward seems to be maybe going to Kholm, but if he tries that he should end up facing a similar wall of infantry within a few turns. The other thing would be attacking through Narva maybe since I don't actually have troops in the forts behind the river, but recon and scouting seems to confirm that most or all of his mobile troops are still in the same place north of Pskov.





The center is a bit less solid, but is not in bad shape either. That said, Germany has actually advanced further than historical here. Yes, that is largely because of not diverting Panzers to Kiev, but Germany never does that in WITE2 (except on turn 1) for the simple reason that Kiev is very easy to take earlier than historical and is also not that important. The center needs more reinforcements, in particular the southern part of it where my troops tend to be weaker.





Here is the even weaker part of the center. Without any real threat here, there is not much reason to defend. Although if there were a threat, I couldn't really defend here anyway and would just retreat faster, so...:







Das Reich was cut off near Dnepropetrovsk by cavalry. If it were a Panzer division, I might try to rout it, but it is not worth even thinking about for an SS division at this stage. I have quite a few strong tank/mech divisions here now, because I have been sending more down from the center. Having seriously damaged 2 Panzer divisions in the center, there are not that many targets left there, and I think jubjub is likely to be very cautious with his Panzers there. So there are more likely to be opportunities to attack in the south on the clear terrain. I simply can't defend here in the sense of maintaining a solid line of infantry without having to constantly retreat, but I can threaten to whack any Panzer divisions that advance too far, too quickly. Insofar as I have infantry divisions in this area, they are mostly low morale and on 50% TOE.




Not much to say about Crimea, except for the fact that I have a decent defense here is part of the reason I can't have a decent infantry defense at Dnepropetrovsk or Kharkov.

[Beethoven1]

Axis Turn 10 (August 24, 1941)

Despite Axis just grinding forward and not liquidating any pockets, Soviets took 150k casualties this turn basically just from combat.



The weather is very nice and pleasant, with rain (albeit light rain) across the north and center, just the way we like it.



Germany made a bit more progress than I was hoping for and expecting for in the north. The key battle was this one, where he (barely) took a key swamp hex. I was hoping for a hold here, in particular hopingg my 62 morale 100 CPP double digit CV infantry would join as a reserve, but alas there was no reserve activation.



However, he still did not do anything to breach the Luga line, and has only barely reached it. So by reasonable standards, Leningrad is in good shape. My standards are not reasonable, though, basically because I want to ensure that Leningrad does not even get cut off - because if it gets cut off, it is guaranteed to ahistorically fall given the way naval interdiction works and given the fact that jubjub knows what he is doing with it.

I was marginally surprised that jubjub didn't pull his Panzers from the north, which I think many players probably would at this point. I don't think jubjub has a FBD there or anything to repair the double rail right away if I withdraw frmo the salient, and I honestly half suspect that the only reason he has his Panzers still there is because he knows I won't retreat in this area, and therefore he can attack and inflict losses here. Now that we are done with the artillery patch, I actually can afford to retreat a bit more, but I would ideally still keep Leningrad out of realistic reach for 1942 if possible.

The fall of the swamp hex threatens my salient reaching along the double rail down towards Pskov, so I will probably need to withdraw from that, if not this turn then definitely next turn. I might possibly be able to get away with one more turn possibly, but only really because of the rain perhaps giving jubjub reason to rest for a turn. The line south of Lake Ilmen at this point also seems quite solid, with level 2 forts in two key hexes, which really should reach level 3 in the central one next turn (94% of the way there), which currently has 107 defensive CV. The swamps in front of Novgorod are also as secure as they could possibly be, with triple stacked good quality units and high defensive CVs, so there is no immediately foreseeable threat to the double rail line connecting Moscow and Leningrad.

When I looked closely at the battles, I noticed the 20th Panzer division did an attack in the north. Previously, that division had been sighted only in the Vitebsk area... So it seems like far from withdrawing Panzers from the north to more favorable terrain, jubjub has actually sent MORE over the last turn or two. Hmmm, that is interesting. In the center, 19th Panzer, 17th Panzer, and 10th Motorized also didn't do attacks and were not spotted this turn, so it is possible at least some of those could also have headed north. 1st and 8th Panzer are also unaccounted for in the north, so in theory he could have some sort of surprise attack planned with up to 5 of those.

I also notice he went forward and flipped hexes and scouted my defenses near Narva, which he had not previously done:



It is possible he miht have more than just a few infantry regiments there, and might have considered trying a surprise attack with those unaccounted for Panzers from the center there, but perhaps then decided against it.


In the center, the germans made some grinding progress and encircled 3 units - a cavalry and 2 infantry. Both of the infantry only had 7500 men or so, and the cavalry is 2500, so this is not a particularly big loss. None of the encircled units have any wins or morale above 50 - as always I try to put those units in safer locations - so these units are an expendable loss. I got 3 holds in this area, mostly with some reserve activations.

At this point, there is basically only one Panzer group in the center, while there are one and a half each in the North and the south.




I think I should maybe stop bothering to show screenshots of this part of the map unless something of any significance happens. Jubjub is just allergic to advancing quickly into this area, presumably to save trucks.




Very little advance in the south. In Dnepropetrovsk I made it a bit easier for him to take the city by having my divisions on 2 different hexes, rather than both on Dnepropetrovsk. However, as a result of that, the manpower in Dniprodzerzhinsk dropped from 2 to 1, with (I think) 1 manpower evacuated, so I will get an extra 30something manpower a turn in 1941, which I think goes up to 50 or so per turn in 1942. If my math is approximately right, that should mean I end up with a bit more 3000 more manpower by the time we get to 1943. Some manpower can be evacuated without a battle also sometimes, but it happens less frequently and the amount is usually less in my tests.



However, jubjub did a big sudden rush towards Kerch in Crimea:



He may have been hoping it was undefended and that he could cross immediately, perhaps. I thought there was some possibility this might be what he was going for, but didn't think it was the most likely. I had been thinking very seriously about city forting Kerch, however not that many troops were there at this point (just 2 divisions in Kerch plus the fort). I had figured I probably had at least one more turn to get units there, but it still would have been a question of prioritization. The fort in Kerch is level 2, but 98% to level 3, so SURELY it should be level 3 by the time next turn starts.

Also look at the air battles. I ran air superiority, which managed to catch and shoot down a lot of un-escorted German bombers. I had also run air superiority the previous turn, but without effect, but this turn it did a lot more. This is just one air battle of quite a few of those. More from the commander's report:



Quite a lot of Axis bombers shot down there. The overall air losses this turn were very high, partly also because I (intentionally) left my ground support on. Ground support is the only real use for planes other than naval interdiction now, since ground attack randomly turns into useless interdiction much of the time, so may as well suicide in ground support since I can't compete against Axis naval interdiction (except in this case because Axis fighters were out of range to escort, but that won't last).



532 Axis (almost all German) pilots KIA is pretty good for me indeed. This is probably the biggest air success I will have the whole game.


Anyway, so now the ferry crossing mechanics will be important at Kerch. There is a strong chance jubjub may use the Panzers to try and attack Kerch next turn (there is not really another logical reason for them to be there). I would like to maybe make a city fort at Kerich and transport some divisions from Sevastopol to Kerch, but I don't know if there is enough SMP to load and unload in one turn.

However, jubjub should NOT be able to attack across the ferry hex as long as the port in Kerch is damaged. I have units on the other side - the forts should count as units, but in addition I also have actual units.

[Beethoven1]

Soviet Turn 10 (August 24, 1941)

Remember way back on turn 2 when I sent the depleted divisions in the Baltics to the Transcaucasus that could not escape except by transferring to reserve? That was, (I think), this same 0 CV mech division:



Well, the 202nd Mech division is now ready to come back. It is up to basically full TOE and full morale. The experience is not quite up to 50, but it should be up there if I transfer it now by the time it actually reaches the map and has 2 turns or so to get its supply and CPP up:



I have been sending quite a few divisions from the Transcaucaus and also the Far East (some from the northern front as well), which have started arriving in significant numbers over the last several turns and have been helping to stiffen my defense.


This turn I did 4 counterattacks (all successful), 3 of which were against regiments and 1 of which was against Hungarians in the south. A lot of divisions participated in these attacks and got wins and slight morale increases to get them on the way to Guards status.

In the north, I thought my defense was firming up last turn, but it seems like it really is doing so now. We just need to start getting these forts up to level 2 and 3. I am also hoping that my casualties will start to go down now that we have reached mostly heavy forest/swamp terrain and I am triple stacking my defense. I have been paying a heavy price to contest pretty much every hex in the north up until now.

I reluctantly withdrew from blocking the double rail line, because obviously Germany is going around it and encirclement was starting to be threatened. However, before pulling back, I attacked the 3/123rd regiment to get a pretty easy morale-boosting win for 3 divisions. I attacked that one in an earlier turn also.



I did another similar attack south of Staraya Russa against a weak regiment:



Interestingly, the timing and armies involved correspond vaguely to the historical Staraya Russa offensive, with the 48th army involved (although here it is south of lake Ilmen, historiclaly it was on the northern side around Novgorod) - https://www.operationbarbarossa.net/the ... operation/

Vasilevsky led another counterattack against a regiment near Velikie Luki:



Empty land:



I have only a pretty thin token defense of Kharkov. Hopefully/probably it won't fall for at least another turn or two (more due to jubjub's caution and apparent fear of advancing ahead of his logistics, fear of cavalry and fear of tank counterattacks than due to my defense). However, I evacuated half of the T-34 factories this turn to play it safe. I will likely evacuate the other half next turn. You get less factory damage if you manually evacuate early than if it is taken early and force evacuated early.



In the Stalino area I have at least a bit more of a defense and some semblance of a front line. However, the front line is formed mostly from cavalry and anti-tank brigades. The handful of infantry divisions I have are relatively low morale and/or about 50% TOE (many of them unready) and are only there to help get in the way, not with any expectation that they can actually fight.



I scouted with cavalry and discovered that for some reason jubjub was no longer leaving many gaps between his divisions:



This meant that I could not surround and rout the Hungarians (which I think I would otherwise have had MP to do), but I attacked them anyway and pushed them back one hex. I was hoping to destroy most of the Hungarian AFVs, but sadly only destroyed 15 out of 68. Not the best attack, but since jubjub is advancing cautiously I am pretty much just taking what I can get, and by doing so hope to give him reason to continue to be cautious, since he knows it could be a Panzer division getting whacked rather than Hungarians.


In Crimea, I did some bombing to hopefully reduce the German MP and maybe, which combined with putting some cavalry in front will hopefully make them not be able to do a deliberate attack against Kerch next turn with as many divisions as they might want. I also have 2 cavalry divisions in the ferry hex. I have no idea if this counts as an "adjacent" hex to a city fort, but I am hoping that it does and that if Kerch does not fall next turn I can make a city fort and add them to the city fort.



I considered making a city fort this turn, but there was not much benefit because I could not move additional divisions in (other than cavalry). I would have wanted to move in another division from Sevastopol and/or rail in some divisions from elsewhere, but nothing had SMP/MP to be able to unload in a single turn.

The UI is misleading as to the MP costs for shipping. Here it looks like if I move a unit to Kerch from Sevastopol I should have 177 SMP or so.



However, if I moved the division it only had 137 SMP, so that seems inconsistent/unexpected:



And apparently it cost 140 MP to unload at Kerch. There is no simple/obvious indication of the SMP cost to unload (even if the amount of SMP you have when leaving from Sevastopol were accurately displayed):



Since the unit had 137 SMP but needed 140 to unload, it could not unload. There is also no undo button for any sea movement at all (ever) that I can see, which seems like an oversight in the UI, especially since you can't easily tell the accurate SMPs and costs to unload units in ports. So I undid this by reloading. I had also hoped that some units which were already on trains from the previous turn could get there and unload, but none had enough SMP.

However, in the worst case scenario, Kerch port should be damaged and so he should not be able to cross immediately (and as soon as he takes the port, I will start bombing it to keep it damaged for longer). Since nothing could unload, there was no real benefit to railing divisions rather than deploying some from reserve. So I have 4 very strong full TOE infantry/mountaineer divisions being deployed next turn (I think all from the Far East and/or Transcaucasus). Ideally I might be able to make a city fort and start adding those to it. If not, they will have to defend in the forts I had already started on the other coast.

[Beethoven1]

Axis Turn 11 (August 31, 1941)

It was quiet in the north, almost too quiet with only 2 attacks. Either there will be a large attack next turn, or else maybe the tanks will have moved elsewhere. We got one hold with a reserve activation. An important note is for the most part, the only units I have on reserve activation are infantry units, not tanks/mech. I don't want my tanks to join a battle where German infantry is attacking, and then I lose all my AFVs to retreat losses against infantry.



It was also pretty quiet in the center:





Germany advanced almost as far as Stalino. Looks like I will have to retreat a bit (what else is new in the south?).



Germany took two hexes towards Sevastopol, and also attacked Kerch. Fortunately, Kerch managed to hold. A great victory for the newly appointed General Galanin (infantry rating 7). I don't know if the bombing helped at all, as well as putting cavalry in front, but maybe. This means I should be able to make a fortress city this turn and move in at least 2 of the additional reinforcement units that I deployed. Unfortunately, the cavalry division that I had left on the ferry hex retreated back automatically. So I guess I won't be able to put units on the ferry hex to wait to move into a city fort. What a pity.



So my overall losses were pretty low this turn - just 91k men, although I did lose another 1,271 planes (leaving air support on again during the German turn). But that is good, because it means I will need less airfield support staff, so more men can be handed a rifle and pressed into the infantry.

I now also have managed to get (barely) more than 3 million men onto the map. However, the overall size of the Red Army remains pretty limited at 4.6 million. So a lot of the extra men are coming from stripping theater boxes bare. The Northern Front is at only 80% of requirement (despite having earlier sent the machine gun battalions there), while the Far East is at 88%.

The Transcaucasus is at 110%, but that is only because I have been sending units such as tank brigades and motorcycle regiments there, as well as some low morale (30-something) replacement divisions for the units lost in the Bialystok pocket and other pockets in the first turns. Might as well have them train in the Transcaucasus rather than the national reserve. I also had the bright idea to send my anti-tank regiments to the Transcaucasus rather than disbanding them - although unfortunately I disbanded quite a few earlier which I now can't bring back to send to the Transcaucasus. Then Anglo-Soviet invasion of Iran just started, so we need all the anti-tank equipment we can get against the Shah's Panzers. Having these support units like tank brigades in the Transcaucasus means I can have slightly more infantry division counters on the map sooner. Sending my tank brigades to the map for the moment seems like sort of a waste, since I won't be able to get Guards Tank corps anyway until 1943 or so, so no point farming wins on tank brigades yet. All the mountaineers in the Transcaucasus are long gone. I am thinking I will also not disband the separate tank regiments/battalions for now and just send them to the Transcaucasus so I can pull out some more divisions.

[Beethoven1]

Soviet Turn 11 (August 31, 1941)

In the north I did one attack on a weak regiment. It was a bit stronger than I thought it would be due to the support units that joined. I have another 3 100% TOE mountaineer divisions being deployed for next turn. This is not needed to hold Leningrad, obviously, but I am trying to totally shut this part of the front down with strong units + forts. As soon as that happens, hopefully I can afford to send away weaker units towards the center and south. We will see if jubjub can manage anything here though, since he seems to have rested mostly last turn. I would guess this turn is jubjub's last opportunity to really make something happen in the north. If it doesn't happen now, it is not going to happen. It is fairly remarkable how quickly my defense solidified here after we upgraded from the artillery patch (albeit that is also due to continuously sending more reserves here).



In the center I re-formed my line (with depth) and retreated slightly in select areas. I noticed that some hexes had flipped on my northern flank (red hex), went and scouted that, and seems like an infantry regiment or two has moved further forward into the swamps. It must be a regiment, not a division, since more hexes didn't flip. So I extended my defense northwards slightly. Mostly this is because of potential that some of the motorized units in the north might try to go through here. Although that is unlikely at this stage, it is at least theoretically possible if I left it totally open. I expect to probably lose Vyazma this upcoming turn. Most of my reserves are being deployed to the center (about 12 divisions or so IIRC, albeit mostly quite weak ones).



A bit more gradual retreat here, except for holding with paratroopers and weak units along the Spas-Demensk rail line with highly expendable paratroopers + cavalry etc:



I only have a very light defense of Kharkov. One of my heroic defenses of a city cost an airborne brigade 2000 casualties. 1 manpower was evacuated, but it will take around 50 turns (I think) for the manpower to repay from that. So that one is perhaps not worth it. I did get some other defenses of towns with 2+ population where a pop was evacuated while I took fewer casualties, however. For example, there was a town where a pop was evacuated and I lost 400 men in a cavalry unit. In that case the manpower should repay within 10-12 turns I think to offset the 400 losses.


Stalino is where the real action was. 1 Panzer division and the Slovakian mobile brigade were cut off. I also attacked a Panzer division, which let me cut off two SS divisions. To do this, first I scouted it with a cavalry division. Since I was dumb and didn't turn off ground support, some bombers suicided in the cavalry attack, with no fighter escort. At the start of the turn I had also foolishly moved my fighters back during the air phase (should have waited to do that at the end of the ground phase, which is why there were no fighters in range to escort).

The scouting revealed that it had a Panzerjaeger support unit. That made it not ideal to attack, but I figured I would go for it anyway, mostly in order to try to cut off the SS divisions, since then he would need to rest those next turn:



Next I attacked with tanks and mech. This attack was a bit of a screw up. First, I didn't have air support due to the previously mentioned issues. Second, Batov commanded the battle rather than Vatutin (slightly worse leader rolls). Before doing the battle, when I was looking at the units, I misread the 13th tank division and thought it was assigned to the 51st Army, but in reality it was actually assigned to the 5th Army. The problem with that is... the 5th Army was commanded by Tolbukhin, all the way in the Vyazma area... So that division was just SLIGHTLY out of range for its leader rolls... All of these things, plus poor Soviet leader rolls in general (hardly any Soviet artillery joined the attack), apparently led to a failed attack:



Nevertheless, 90 Axis AFVs were destroyed, including a lot of Panzer IIIs and Panzer IVs, so while it is not as I would have liked, it was not the end of the world. Since my first attack failed, I followed up with a 2nd attack with different tank/mech divisions. This one succeeded, but the AFV trade ratio was quite bad, more than 7 Soviet AFVs for every Axis AFV lost. As a result of all these AFV losses, a lot of my tank/mech divisions here are now "unready," which is really not ideal.



I have 2 new 100% TOE mech units (each with about 200 AFV) being deployed here this turn, in addition to more very low quality screening units. A lot of forts are being built around Rostov to help it hopefully hold out long enough, but I will need some stronger infantry units here soon.

[Beethoven1]

Axis Turn 12 (September 7, 1941)

Jubjub made about as good progress as possible given the escalating defensive CVs I am putting up in the north. He broke through a swamp hex with 63 defensive CV with the help of a lot of artillery, perhaps partly because it only had a level 1 fort (while all the other nearby hexes had level 2). I had thought/hoped the fort would be up to level 2 here, but apparently the construction fell slightly short. Anyway, as a result, he was able to temporarily isolate 6 of my units sitting in level 2 swamp forts:



He also tried some other attacks against hexes with level 2 forts, which both failed (89 defensive CV on this one):



And another one with 107 defensive CV:



One has to admire jubjub's tenacity and perseverance in not giving up on the north despite facing these high defensive CVs and growing fort levels. However, he only attacked with relatively few motorized/Panzer divisions, so I do have to wonder if some of them may have moved. Really need some good recon here to tell.


In the center, somewhat to my surprise Vyazma did not fall, and the German attacks were concentrated more to the north than to the east. I wonder if he may be thinking that Moscow is out of reach, and is just wanting to take Rzhev before mud to try and get some bonus VPs out of it.



Although my strategy is not really based off of VPs and I try to limit my attention to them, Orel, Kalinin, and Rzhev fell historically on turns 15 / 17 / 17, and since we are on turn 12, the bonus VP should start dropping off of those over the next few turns, if I can continue to hold them.



Down here in Bryansk/Orel, my troops are still fairly weak, though gradually getting a bit stronger. The battles were just swatting away cavalry/airborne that I had left for the purpose of it being swatted away:



Kharkov still holds despite being barely defended. More cavalry swatting in the empty Steppe. An interesting thing at Konotop... it has 4 population. On turn 11 he attacked a cavalry there and it dropped to 3 population. So on my previous turn I moved a cavalry back in, to get attacked again, and this time another population was evacuated and it dropped down to 2 population:



Not much surprise here, Stalino was taken against weak defenders:




In Crimea, jubjub put on quite a show.





I haven't tried defending it before so wasn't sure how it would go, but I had thought/hoped it might be a bit better. Not only did he smash through the hexes in front of Sevastopol (which I was sort of expecting), but also had enough strong units to attack all the other hexes successfully as well, and even to follow up with some attacks into mountains against retreating units.

I had been planning all along to retreat most of my units to Yalta and make a city fort there, but it looks like that will be happening sooner rather than later and even if I didn't want to, that would be my only real option. On the bright side, Kerch still holds and its defensive CV is starting to go up nicely, up to 86. Will be higher when I move in 2 more strong 100% TOE 14k man divisions this turn.