Road to Leningrad vs AI normal

[AlessandroT]

Hello!

First disclaimer: I'm not very good writing in english, so I'll try to keep the language as simple as I can, please forgive my mistakes!!

Settings

Me (Axis Normal) vs AI (Soviet Normal)

Full FOW and HQs locked.

Air assist activated.
I want to focus on land operations, simulating the distance between different commands. Luftflotte 1 will be kept in advance stance with supply/asset priority 3. I will only toogle air support on/off to "call" the LW in precise situations.

Reserve box full (no real difference in Leningrad Scenario).

My goal is to achieve at least a minor victory with Axis.

I choose to try this one for it is a fairly challenging scenario. I'll try to play at my best, I don't think to be a very competitive or good player.


Some Operational Planning:

Immagine 2022-05-18 223731.png (1.37 MiB) Viewed 1920 times

The main affordable (and remunerative) objective is to seal Leningrad and reach the victory locations near the Ladoga lake.
Leningrad city is a very high value objective, but an all-out attack would be a real risky idea (casualties vp ratio is 5:1 in soviet favour). Reaching Osinovets, Kobona, Shlisselburg, Novaya Ladoga, would be enough to win the scenario; this "Schwerpunkt" has to be taken by the strongest units we have.
On the flanks lie some secondary objectives; in the western part of the map Tallin and Kuressaare, in the East Veliki Luki, Dno, Staraya Russa (maybe Valdai, but it's very far).
Pskov, Luga, Novgorod are just on the way of the main thrust to Leningrad, so no extra asset is needed for those location.

AGN is organized in three Armies, plus the security RHG command for a couple of months.

18th Army (supply level 3)
The 18th Army's mission will be to secure Tallinn and Kuressare with minimum allocation of forces; then follow up to seal Leningrad from the south west (without attacking it). Oranienbaum is an opportunity objective. In the last month of the operation the army will change stance to assault army and assume command of remaining elements of the withdrawing 4th Panzer Army.
At the start of the operation, the 3 division strong I Corps (its weak commander von Both has to be sacked ASAP) is assigned to 4th Panzer Army.
The resulting OOB of the 18th Army is two Corps with respectively two and three division each. A sixth division (254th assigned to XXXVIII Corps, 251th is assigned to 18th Army HQ) will be kept as army reserve.
The strongest Corps (Wodrig's XXVI with 3 divisions) will keep 3 Artillery support units and 3 Pioneer units to help the assault on Tallinn, all other support units (except one AA unit per Corps) will be sent to AGN and reallocated to 4th PzGroup units.

16th Army (supply level 3)
The 16th Army will cover the eastern flank, with minimum expense of assets. The eastern objectives are worth less points than the others. To form a cordon from Veliki Luki to Chudovo (see the map), 21 regiments are required. So 7 divisions in a total of three corps are assigned to the 16th. An eighth division (253rd) is allocated as 16th Army reserve. Almost no support units are kept in the Army OOB, except one AA per Corps and 3 Artillery units to the II Corps (the Corps headed to Veliki Luki).


RHG Command (supply level 2)
After the first battle on the frontier, the three weak security divisions of RHG command will clean up Courland – west of Riga – while all other armies will rush to their objectives. It seems a consistent mission for a security HQ. No need to do it quickly: RHG will form 9 regiments and secure the region before their withdrawal (almost two months is more than enough time to do it). All support units are sent back to AGN.

4th Panzer Group (supply level 4)
An "assault" army, it builds CPP faster, with very good commanders. I Corps and L Corps are assigned to its command in addition of the two motorized Corps. All support units sent back to AGN from other armies will be avaiable to meet the needs of the units.
The two motorized corps will perform a pincer movement, enveloping the maximum number of enemy units. LVI Mot. Corps (with the Totenkopf addition) will rush for Riga. The infantry of I and L Corps will just rush to Pskov-Luga-Ladoga, avoiding unnecessary combat.

Finally, XXIII Corps HQ is free of units. The 3 rail construction battallions will be attached to it... forming a sort of rail repair corps...

Here's the starting modified OOB

oob.png (706.76 KiB) Viewed 1914 times

Now let's begin!

[AlessandroT]

TURN 1

AIR PHASE:

Aircraft losses – 605:73 (soviet losses will go up to 850 after the ground phase captures).
AI disposed one big ground attack vs airfields and two recon ad on the frontline. Loss ratio 9:1.
Our losses were mainly JU-88s and some old HS recon planes.
After the recon, there are 4 armor units and 2 mechanized spotted on the map.

spotting.png (1.76 MiB) Viewed 1877 times

Ground support will not be called (I think that airgroups have already flown enough miles).

GROUND PHASE:
The spotting of those mechanized and armor units twisted the plan a little.
A bold (maybe too bold) encirclement caught all enemy spotted units. The german mainland is exposed, if the Soviets decide to go forward (Memel is guarded only by a freshly built fortress hex).
A depot in Siaulai has been built.
LVI Mot. Corps took Riga without problems, the other motorized corps sweeped on the right and completed the encirclement. All axis units are quite scattered and not very organized (the encirclement manouver was a priority over cohesion).

after turn 1.png (1.69 MiB) Viewed 1877 times

Overall losses of first ground phase are about 60k:1k. Almost no AFV lost by the Soviets, but a lot of AFVs may be still encirled and isolated the next turn. Let's see if the grapple holds...

losses t1.png (196.56 KiB) Viewed 1877 times

[Seminole]

If I can offer a small piece of advice: keep 4th Panzer axis of advance more to the east, up the river valley of clear and light woods instead of the rough, swamp and heavy woods on the path you’ve sketched.

Bypass Pskov to get to Novgorod with the mech, then the infantry catch up to hammer Pskov and assist the final push to Ladoga and into Leningrad.

Since this is the scenario he can’t over concentrate forces from other theaters early, the key is to keep stretching his lines to exploit gaps and remove units with encirclements.

I believe the AI will be limited to the scenario OoB so he shouldn’t be able to cheat up fresh lines if you can keep taking his formations off the map via capture.

Good luck!

[Seminole]

If I can offer a small piece of advice: keep 4th Panzer axis of advance more to the east, up the river valley of clear and light woods instead of the rough, swamp and heavy woods on the path you’ve sketched.

Bypass Pskov to get to Novgorod with the mech, then the infantry catch up to hammer Pskov and assist the final push to Ladoga and into Leningrad.

Since this is the scenario he can’t over concentrate forces from other theaters early, the key is to keep stretching his lines to exploit gaps and remove units with encirclements.

I believe the AI will be limited to the scenario OoB so he shouldn’t be able to cheat up fresh lines if you can keep taking his formations off the map via capture.

Good luck!

[AlessandroT]

Thank you for the advice, Seminole.
I will avoid heavy woods and swamps as much as I can with 4Pz. When I did the sketch i was not very precise with the 4th pz big arrow.
About Pskov, nice idea. I will ty to bypass/isolate it with the mot.corps and take it the next turn with L or I corps.
I found in previous attempts that the 6th and 8th Panzer divisions are very susceptible to losses (they're filled with Pz35 and Pz38), so I try not to do big battles with those units, I would like to use them only to encircle and cleanup. I wonder why they have the same nominal CV of the 1st Pz.div (with PzIII) in the beginning of the scenario.

[Stamb]

if i understand it correctly then game treats all elements of same type exactly the same
for example all medium tanks have same CV
irrelevant if it is some older models or the newest one, but they will perform differently in a battle

maybe this is done to simplify calculations or just to simplify a code, i dont know
but i would also like to see proper CV

more details in a manual, section 34.4. GROUND ELEMENT TYPE AND COMBAT VALUES

[AlessandroT]

TURN 2
The grapple held! a LOT of soviet units are isolated!

t2 encircled.png (1.45 MiB) Viewed 1784 times

In the air phase AI just set up some recon ADs in Lettonia, north of Riga, losing a bunch of planes.

In the land phase (air ground support has been kept off), the 16th Army and the RHG command spent all the week reducing and destroying the pocketed soviet units in the area. 18th Army reached Riga, while XXXIX mot. corps drove near the LVI mot. corps, taking Daugavpils and Jekabpils on the fly.

t2 land.png (780.04 KiB) Viewed 1784 times

Impressive casualties inflicted, 4 Rifle, 4 Armored and 2 mechanized divisions surrendered this week. About 1400 AFVs have been looted or destroyed.

losses t2ù.png (259.18 KiB) Viewed 1784 times

t2 destroyed units.png (346.46 KiB) Viewed 1784 times

Two new depots: Daugavpils, Kaunas.

The deployment is still a bit chaotic, I hope to form the planned "running lines/colums" in the next week. 16th Army has been delayed by the intense pocket fight.

[AlessandroT]

TURN 3

TOE checked for all units.
All combat units are above 75%TOE, in good shape and well supplied. Some damage in the AFV units, especially some SP AA Flak halftracks. Passing in woods and swamps is a real danger.
The Luftwaffe (AI) is moving in new bases, thy still lack some suppies, sometimes planes are overconcentrated.
The next objective ahead is Pskov.
As Seminole suggested, the motorized corps will try to bypass and isolate the city, and let the infantry deal with it.

In the air phase only 4 recon planes are lost. Some new targets are spotted just southwest of Pskov.

what to do t3.png (1.63 MiB) Viewed 1769 times

Now the question is: go forward and bypass those unit (somewhat "Guderian" style) or spend time and space to encircle and destroy them (more "Clausewitz" style)?

Maybe both ideas 50% - 50%.


It seems that the XXXIX Corps has the way open to Pskov, while the LVI has some enemty units on the way. The XXXIX will not waste time and space, and will rush for Pskov, while the LVI will fix and encircle the enemy units ahead.
Unfortunately, the LVI corps engaged in a big surprise combat against the soviet 3rd Tank Division (activated as reserve). The 8th Pz Div suffered heavy AFV losses (as somewhat predicted), mainly the fragile PzII and Pz38. Also the soviet armor division has been almost stripped of all its tanks, but we're far from the 5:1 ratio, a bad battle and a moderate setback.

battle t3.png (1.1 MiB) Viewed 1769 times

The infantry (L and I Corps) of 4th PzGroup marches forth.
The 16th Army destroyed all remaining pocketed units near Vilnius, then formed the Corps in an advancing line. Still no need to breakdown divisions to regiments, they'll move scattered to convert the maximum number of hexes.
Also the 18th is turning north to Latvia, taking planned positions, with Wodrig's XXVI Corps on the left, marching to Tallinn.
RHG command advances unopposed through Courland, Ventspils should be reached the next week.
Depot built at Ostrov, just south of Pskov. It is immediately resupplied by Transport Gr. Nord.

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[AlessandroT]

TURN 4
The overall situation is ok, no big supply issues, only the 8th Panzer is understrength without a lot of pz38.
Luftflotte 1 performs a mild recon with very low losses. Still the air recon finds some targets that could be encircled.

t4 atack.png (1.23 MiB) Viewed 1743 times

Once again the LVI goes for the encirclement, while XXXIX corps will continue straight forward, bypassing Pskov (the "Seminole" plan!).

18th Army, 16th Army and RHG command will continue their work in their assigned zones, following the initial plan. Still I lack the AP to sack von Both from the I Corps, maybe next turn.

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The execution goes fairly well, but far from spectacular, I guess to have trapped at least one tank division (the already battered 3rd Tank division) and some rifle units. I guess about 40k men encircled and and about 100 AFVs. The XXXIX Corps breaks through the soviet lines and goes past Pskov: the 1st Pz division leads the way not far from the Luga line. Losses are acceptable, but the enemy losses seem to be a bit low.

t4losses.png (244.3 KiB) Viewed 1743 times

[AlessandroT]

TURN 5
Air phase with no significant recon (14 sorties in the 16th Army zone).
No ground support called.

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As you can see on the map, XXXIX Corps is isolated. The 4th PzGroup will destroy the encircled soviet units and link up back with XXXIX Corps, possibly isolating Pskov. 1st PzDivision is on stop to repair damaged elements and resupply.
18th Army will continue to Latvia (the 254th reserve division of the 18th is at the moment assigned as third division of the XXXVIII Corps) and try to set its base in Parnu.
16th Army still converting terrain to the east, while RHG is finishing its job in Courland.

Von Both has been replaced, we want the best commander available for the I Corps...

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The execution is more or less as expected, no big fights, no surprises. 18th Army reached Parnu and RHG security units accomplished their mission. Average losses, nothing decisive.

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t5 losses.png (204.7 KiB) Viewed 1718 times

[AlessandroT]

TURN 6
All units fairly supplied, with a bad surprise: Pskov no more "red" isolated (maybe 6 soviet air supply missions made it so).

4th Panzer Group

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Leaving Pskov and rushing north east, the two motorized corps led the way to Novgorod. Some lucky battles and light woods were enough to take Novgorod off-guard. I Corps rushed to Luga, while the L Corps is keeping Pskov in check. Sadly enough, a one-division attack was tried to dislodge the Soviets from Pskov, but I clearly asked too much. L Corps will deal with the city in the next turn (the reinforcement 93rd Division is arriving from the south).

18th Army

t6 18 army.png (2.03 MiB) Viewed 1689 times

18th Army is steadily advancing through Latvia without any opposition. One division reached Virtsu: it will send one regiment to Kuressare next week. 58th Division crossed the Pskov-Peipus gap preparing for an occasional encirclement.
18th Army HQ sits in Parnu.

16th Army

t6 16 army .png (1.86 MiB) Viewed 1689 times

16th Army elements finally reached a defensive line, so maybe its time to open up to form the regimental "cordon" to protect the right flank.

Enemy losses were minimal, no big engagements, worrysome. I really hope to set up a good encirclement in the future weeks.
Air losses (almost none this turn) still at a 9:1 ratio.


One last thing: RHG security divisions sit idle in Courland, stationed in ports to minimize supply attrition.

t6 losses.png (222.04 KiB) Viewed 1689 times

[AlessandroT]

TURN 7
Only one understregth unit (8th Panzer Div).
Motorized units are at 60%-70% fuel and MP. No big supply issues.

4th Panzer Group

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No more time to waste, L Corps and I Corps deal respectively with Pskov and Luga. Motorized and armor units meet at Novgorod, after some battles with Rifle divisions. Most enemy units were routed, I think it was better to clear the way instead of losing another turn finding encirclements. In a lucky engagement, I Corps' infantry divisions routed the Soviet 24th Tank Divison, destroying 67 tanks (with my surprise, most hits came from 37mmPAK36 guns, enough to knock down BT-5, I suppose). In this combat, 7 Panzerjaeger mkI were lost.

16th Army

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The fan is slowly opening, but some strong enemy units were spotted. I don't know if the enemy will try to fight or pull back, but still the 16th Army's units are not in their planned positions. Velikie Luki is not far.

18th Army

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XXVI Corps goes north, Tallin is within reach. One regiment is detached (assigned to 18th army) to occupy Kuressare.
XXXVIII Corps keeps the right flank in check. The 58th division will help covering 4th Panzer group's left flank.

In this turn I used too much ground support and lost 50 aircraft. The total air losses are 168:1057, slowly going to the "zero points" ratio of 5:1.
Ground losses are still low.

t7losses.png (306.52 KiB) Viewed 1671 times

New depots built: Pskov, Luga, Novgorod

[Stamb]

btw in newer patches panzers performance was reviewed and they are much better now
you might consider making an update if changes that are in a patches are ok for you

[AlessandroT]

btw in newer patches panzers performance was reviewed and they are much better now
you might consider making an update if changes that are in a patches are ok for you

Thank you, I'll check !

BTW I'm not surprised or angry about the tank loss of 6th or 8th Pz Div, they suffered tank depletion in '41 (like I read in WITepedia ).

[AlessandroT]

TURN 8
(RHG Command withdraws)
Air support OFF

16th Army

t8 16.png (2.06 MiB) Viewed 1632 times

Forming the big line, no problems in the south, but there are some big soviet units near lake Ilmen.
II and X corps should stretch enough to relieve XXVIII Corps and let it go to Novgorod, maybe next week

18th Army

t8 18.png (2 MiB) Viewed 1632 times

A very good week for the 18th Army! Tallinn is taken after a rushed battle, Kuressare falls too! The regiment 3/61 is detached and assigned to OKH.
18th Army HQ goes to Tallinn and now it's time to rush east, to Leningrad.

4th Panzer Group

t8 4pz.png (1.96 MiB) Viewed 1632 times

Moving forward, L corps covers Luga, while the I Corps goes forth. Motorized units exploit some fast attacks and pour through , armored divisions going past Chudovo, exploiting some light woods between swamps and forests.

Losses are not spectacular (still more or less 10:1 ratio in our favour), but a lot of terrain has been gained.

t8losses.png (307.36 KiB) Viewed 1632 times

[AlessandroT]

TURN 9
Air support OFF
18th Army set to assault status (ready to take command of remnants of 4th Pzgroup)
20th MD and 12th Pz Division arrived (at 2/3 TOE more or less).

The enemy advanced to cut the rail line to Luga (I find it a nice and economic move) with one motorized division.

t9cut.png (1.25 MiB) Viewed 1610 times

18th Army
XXVI Corps will go to Narva river and Oranienbaum. XXXVIII Corps is covering the left flank of the 4th Panzer group, passing between lake Pskov and Peipus. Estonia is secured.

t9 18.png (1.82 MiB) Viewed 1610 times

16th Army
The 16th army reserve division has been assigned to X Corps. Now there are enough units to free up XXVIII Corps and let it go north. The same XXVIII Corps deals with the enemy motorized division and prepares to move north.

t9 16th army.png (1.57 MiB) Viewed 1610 times

4th Pz Group
The Chudovo salient is widened and secured by the L and I infantry corps. Preparing for an attack next week.

t9 4 pz.png (1.82 MiB) Viewed 1610 times

Battled were carefully picked, no big enemy losses. about 4k:18k men almost no AFV for both sides.
Air losses were 3:193 !!! (I attached one SP flak to all divisions of 4th panzer, they caused 25 flak and 31 operational losses)

[Beethoven1]

Your screenshots are nicely done! It looks to me like you should be able to cut off Leningrad in the coming turns.

[originalperson0]

what is your supply situation looking like?

[AlessandroT]

what is your supply situation looking like?

TURN 10 - Mid game inspections

1) TOE

I see some units understrength, most of them are AA Sp units attached to 4th Pz Group units. I'm sure those AA halftracks didn't like heavy combat (they have almost no armor) and poor terrain, they are not very resilient. Also the PanzerJaeger I seems to be fragile.

t10 toe.png (740.41 KiB) Viewed 1529 times

Big battered units are the 8th panzer division and the 12th panzer division (just arrived as reinforcement). One infantry division is below 2/3 TOE (254th Division, in the 18th Army).

2) SUPPLY

Supply, fuel and ammo are not a big issue, EXCEPT for frontline units of 4th Pzgroup, especially the I Corps, leading the frontal assault. Here the combat units have about 50% supply. Ammo is about 80% more or less. Fuel is enough to give motorized units 25-30 MP.

t10 low supply.png (1.21 MiB) Viewed 1529 times

Here the supply delivery lines, and the rail repair situation

t10 supply.png (1.85 MiB) Viewed 1529 times

t10 rail.png (2.22 MiB) Viewed 1529 times

[AlessandroT]

TURN 10
Air assist OFF (I will turn it on only if I desperately need it, my flaKs are doing very well during combat)
Just take a look to air losses, by soviet combat attrition and SP flaK units

t10 AIRLOSSES.png (408.9 KiB) Viewed 1486 times

16th and 18th armies are slowly crawling on their lines, with some minor engagements. 16th's XXVIII Corps arrived in the Novgorod region and relieved all the 4th Panzer Group units.

4th Panzer Group is leading the charge, as planned, XXXXI Mot corps found a gap leading to Tikhvin, all ther units fight their way to lake Ladoga.

t10 EXEC.png (2.52 MiB) Viewed 1486 times

t10LOSSES.png (235.76 KiB) Viewed 1486 times