Is Kentucky possible as confederate?

[Yogol]

Is it even possible to persuade Kentucky to join when playing as the Confederates? Because I bought five chits for diplomacy in Kentucky before buying anything else (before any troop or research), but Kentucky went Union anyway.

Should I even bother with Kentucky?
Or -if the other things are pre-programmed too- should I even bother with diplomacy at all?

[Jim D Burns]

Probably not, unless the Union brings in the Italian leader per event early in the game (guessing event fires around turn 3-4, not sure). If they do that then there is a chance of a large shift to Missouri and Kentucky politics, though it's a die roll so pray to the dice gods for a big shift. If you get a good shift then pile on the chits, otherwise probably a waste of production points.

[BiteNibbleChomp]

Possible? Absolutely. Worthwhile? If successful, Kentucky is a huge advantage - the Ohio is a very defensible line, and it pushes the Union's starting positions for an advance on Nashville several hexes back.
But it is a risk.

Because there's so many factors that can influence the outcome, it's hard to calculate your odds of success. However, if we assume that you put 3 chits in KY on turn one and a further 2 in turn two, the Union does not put in any, it takes the Union five turns to knock Missouri out, and the Union does not take Garibaldi, then your odds of KY seceding outright are a little over 25% by the end of CS turn five (with a small but non-zero chance in the next couple of turns).

To me, 500 MPP for a one-in-four chance at flipping a state as valuable as KY is not a bad trade to make. But it depends on how willing you are to take the risk

- BNC

[Jim D Burns]

if we assume that you put 3 chits in KY on turn one and a further 2 in turn two

This can be dangerous if the Union chooses not to go into Missouri on turn 1. I choose the neutral Missouri option then pump 5 chits into Missouri on turn 2 as Kentucky is high enough then I doubt the Confederate player can get it due to the automatic increases towards the Union. If the Confederates put 3 into Kentucky on turn 1 they only have 2 left to counter my chits in Missouri, thus almost guaranteeing the Union will get both states in the end. Against the AI perhaps its safe, as I have no idea if the Union AI will ever try the neutral Missouri option. I guess the Confederate player can wait one turn before he commits, though he loses a die roll chance at modifying Kentucky on turn one.

[Beriand]

This can be dangerous if the Union chooses not to go into Missouri on turn 1. I choose the neutral Missouri option then pump 5 chits into Missouri on turn 2

Well not attacking Missouri and then putting 500 MPPs into diplomacy with it sounds like an extremely questionable move

Chance to get Kentucky on CSA side is real, totally possible, but just pure RNG. Meh. Bringing diversity into singleplayer, but not sure who could appreciate pure RNG in multiplayer.

[Jim D Burns]

Well not attacking Missouri and then putting 500 MPPs into diplomacy with it sounds like an extremely questionable move

Not at all, if you get Missouri to join this way, you get two Brigades you do not get if you move in on turn one, so the move pays for itself if it joins later (at least I got two when the Confederates attacked it on turn 4-6, not sure if you get them if it joins via diplomacy only). Missouri gives you a trade route if its neutral, so you actually get more production this way as well, since moving in requires over-running the state and slowly repairing the production sites later after you cap them.

[Yogol]

To me, 500 MPP for a one-in-four chance at flipping a state as valuable as KY is not a bad trade to make. But it depends on how willing you are to take the risk

To me, this is the kind of things that I dislike: if you're lucky, you win, if you're unlucky, you lose. I prefer games to rely on skill, not on sheer dumb luck. I'll guess I'll just invest in Spain or something, because gambling such an important event is just not fun for me. For the Union, it seems more balanced.

Anyway... thank you all for the input!

[Beriand]

I do not think you get brigades from Missouri/Kentucky when they join through diplo drift. Only when they are attacked.

To me, this is the kind of things that I dislike: if you're lucky, you win, if you're unlucky, you lose. I prefer games to rely on skill, not on sheer dumb luck.

Yeah

[BiteNibbleChomp]

I do not think you get brigades from Missouri/Kentucky when they join through diplo drift. Only when they are attacked.

That is correct. Although it is worth noting that if MO should secede, the CS can then deploy units in Jefferson City and St Louis, so if you have one in production you can deploy it there when the state flips (same is true for KY and Louisville/Frankfort)

- BNC

[pascalc]

'I hope to have God on my side, but I must have Kentucky'
– Abraham Lincoln