loki100 wrote: Sat Sep 17, 2022 12:20 pmSigh:
Sorry, but I don't understand why there is any reason to "sigh" here. We are just trying to have a friendly and hopefully productive and fact-based discussion about some aspects of game mechanics. If you are right, then you will have been right on the internet about a computer game. If I am right, then I will have been right on the internet about a computer game. It's pretty low stakes.
Thanks for that, it provides some information that I did not see in your previous posts. If you posted it earlier and I overlooked it, feel free to let me know and I will try to read more carefully next time, but I didn't see it. However, I looked again and don't see it in your previous posts. So if your sigh is meant to indicate that you already posted this information and I overlooked it previously, then as far as I can see, I did not overlook it previously. But again, if I am wrong, feel free to correct me. I do make mistakes, and when I do, I am happy to admit them.
So, the screenshot says that the Soviets flew 4508 sorties. This means that my bombing of HLYA's airfields was about 3-4 times more sorties, so it was considerably larger in scale. This seems to support the hypothesis I was proposing that the effectiveness of my airfield bombing may have been a result (at least partly) of its sheer scale, overwhelming the intercepting fighters.
He has almost no operational losses simply as I shot his planes down over target, few escaped damaged, so virtually nothing gets recorded as an operational loss.
As far as I can see, this likewise seems to support my hypothesis. You mentioned earlier that the losses were about 1/3 of the total # of planes in the 3 air armies:
loki100 wrote: Fri Sep 16, 2022 9:18 amThis uses a turn from August so clear weather. 3 Soviet Air Armies (1, 6 and 14) all did nothing but GA-airbase on the Minsk sector. Roughly 1,500 Soviet bombers and a matching number of fighters.
...
And the end of week bombing losses. Something like 1/3 Soviet pilots who took part dead, they've lost over 40% of their bombers and destroyed 66 German planes on the ground.

And if you look at the losses, you can see that there were 455 Soviet level bombers shot down, but only 209 tactical bombers. Yet, since this is the late game, as we know, more of the Soviet bombers are tactical bombers (IL-2s and U-2s etc) as compared to in early 1941. So the fact that losses were higher among level bombers than tactical bombers suggests that likely a lot of the tactical bombers in particular may have been out of range and did not fly at all.
So, your results seem consistent with the hypothesis that only some of the planes flew (likely at least partly due to range issues and/or settings), but of the ones that did fly, nearly all of them were shot down. That is because if all of the planes had flown, but only some had been shot down, then you would have taken more operational losses - because some of the planes that were not shot down by enemy fighters would have crashed on the way home.
If so, then that would imply that if more planes had been able to participate, that things may have been different. Specifically, the interceptors may have been overwhelmed if there were more separate missions and more sorties, as occurred in my game.
So this supports exactly the point I was making, as far as I can tell.
And no, my opponent is not going to allow me to post his save, giving me his password, on an open forum.
If your objective is to facilitate careful and reproducible tests, there are other ways we could go about that which do not necessarily need to involve the Soviet player sharing his password with you, or plastering his password on the forum for all and sundry to see if that is not what he (or you) wants. If you are interested in reproducible tests, I am sure we could figure out how to do this in an amenable and productive way. We have no shortage of communication tools available which could be utilized, including PMs, discord messages, and email. Passwords etc do not need to be public to have reproducibility.
If you or the Soviet player still is not interested in any of those sorts of options, we could probably figure out how to use another save instead. This would be less ideal since it would not be as close to your tests, but for example, I know you have saves from the late game of your previous games. Maybe we could find one of those from your previous Germany game which has a similar situation at roughly a similar date, and set things up to have an appropriate test bed in that. Then we could better test and draw well-supported conclusions from that. Or if need be, we could probably use your previous Soviet single player saves with appropriate set up.
The point is you claim that GA-airbase is universally a problem, I don't see it.
By contrast, I don't think I ever claimed that GA-airbase is universally a problem. As far as I can tell, you are putting words into my mouth. What I did say was e.g. this:
Beethoven1 wrote: Mon Aug 29, 2022 9:12 pmHLYA and I have agreed to the following plan going forward regarding the air war (feel free to correct anything, maybe I am forgetting something again):
A) I will cancel all the airbase bombing missions that I had set up.
- reasoning: it seems pretty clearly unbalanced/broken, at least as it worked out.
I did say that "it" (airbase bombing) "seems pretty clearly unbalanced/broken." However, notice, that I added on an important caveat - "at least as it worked out." Hence, contrary to your suggestion, I was making no
universal claim that airbase bombing is necessarily broken in all contexts, but merely the more modest claim that in this particular context (mass raids destroying 450 German fighters in July '41) it seemed pretty clearly unbalanced/broken.
The reason I added that caveat was precisely because I wanted to make clear that I was open minded about the possibility that evidence could come up that airbase bombing might be just fine in certain other contexts, or maybe with other limitations imposed on it.
Likewise in my post in the tech support thread, all I said was:
Beethoven1 wrote: Sun Aug 28, 2022 8:03 amOverall, it seems to me that this airfield bombing was probably too effective to be realistic.
That is similarly a very modest and non-universal claim.
I
do think it is
possible (and also quite
plausible) that airfield bombing is a generalized problem, but I don't think I have ever said that I know that to be the case. Indeed, that is precisely the reason why I keep asking you if we can maybe facilitate some careful, controlled, reproducible, and verifiable tests - so that we can check if your particular test is in fact good evidence against that possibility or not.
If anything, as far as I can see, you are the only one here who is confident enough that you think you know for sure that you are right without doing further tests - otherwise you would agree to my proposal that we should conduct some additional tests. But maybe that's not the case. If so, then rather than continuing like this, why don't we figure out how to test it appropriately?
I can see how in your game your opponent got a real shoeing.
I don't see any particular relevance of that comment, other than as a cheap side shot against my opponent. If you have personal issues against my opponent, that is something you can make your own peace with as you see fit, but it is not relevant to the game mechanics. Ideally it would be nice if we could keep discussion focused substantively on that.
But if he really had 500+ fighters up around Orsha on T5 then he was taking a hell of a chance.
First of all, there were not 500+ fighters around Orsha. There were more like 160 at Orsha and 120 at Vitebsk. The next closest ones (not really in the same area) were about 80 at Vitebsk. So you could say there were up to ~300 around Orsha (the VVS was of course also concentrated in the center).
Secondly, I am sure if you think for just a moment about it, you will agree that the Luftwaffe should absolutely be able to bring planes to places lie Orsha on turn 5 -
including not only fighters but also bombers,
because that is precisely what they did historically.
Apparently, the LW moved up enough planes to be able to bomb Moscow with 195 planes on July 21, 1941, and also to have tactical air support as well as fighter cover (
https://forum.axishistory.com/viewtopic.php?t=75471). Whereas all that Germany had here was fighter cover, without bombers or even recon.
If Axis can't use the Luftwaffe to a similar extent that they were able to use it historically, then there is an obvious problem insofar as the game is meant to be more or less a simulation of what was possible historically.
I had a look back in my game to around then and I had a weak picket screen of fighters covering the front, I guess I could have lost a lot to an air offensive but it wouldn't have stripped out the core of my fighter assets for the rest of 1941. As ever, its a matter of choices, gambles and consequences.
"As ever, its a matter of choices, gambles and consequences."
Wait. Hold on a minute, right there.
No. Not "as ever."
Not everything that happens in the game is always just a result of "choices" that players make, and "consequences" of those choices.
There are, sometimes (not always, but sometimes), some things in the game that are genuinely imbalanced, broken, and/or wrong.
Airbase bombing may or may not be one of them. But regardless of whether it is, you
must acknowledge that it is at least
possible that it
could be more then just a mere matter of players making "choices" and "gambles" and suffering the "consequences" of them.
I try to be polite and friendly in my online interactions to the best of my ability, have a history of being so with you, and will continue doing so here. But I must also be frank here, because it is important that you should understand how this sort of comment from you reads and is interpreted by large numbers of players in the community.
It reads, in short, in much the same way that Marie Antoinette's "let them eat cake" read to the Great Unwashed French Masses in the 18th century.
It reads, in short, like careless, dismissive, arrogant, blithe, insouciant, dogmatic
denialism.
That may or may not be your intent. But know that when you say things like that, that is how large numbers of players in the WITE2 community perceive it, rightly or wrongly.
So please pay careful attention to this and try to think seriously and honestly, and reflectively about what I am saying here, if for nothing else for your own good.
If I understand your implication correctly here, what you are trying to say here is that 450 LW fighters being destroyed on the ground in July '41 is "just one of those things." Everything is fine, nothing to see here, just move along. Shuffle shuffle.
In short, in your opinion, if I am understanding you correctly, it is "WAD" (and you also seem to be pretty confident of this without conducting additional tests which might or might not actually support your position). This is a common refrain that you have often expressed in the past, when someone brings up something that might be wrong or imbalanced with the game.
And on a purely
technical level, it may be (and in the past, often has been) the case that some issue that a player brings up
is in fact WAD. And on a technical level, whether that is the case
is important to know for Joel/Gary/Pavel's purposes (especially in the tech support forum).
But more importantly, the further inference that you are often perceived as suggesting is that if something is WAD, then everything must be perfectly ok with regards to it.
This is the further inference
that is simply not founded, as a matter of logic. Something may be working according to the design, but the design itself may be problematic or may not take into account certain factors which are only discovered after the design phase. Sometimes (again, not always, but sometimes) something is sufficiently problematic that the design itself must be adjusted in order for the greater vision of the design (a realistic, historical, and immersive game) to be born out.
One example where this has been the case in the past which I will pick out, just because it is such a clear case, is with how frail and weak German Panzer divisions were upon release. This is something that you defended for many months in multiple different threads. It was (apparently) working basically as designed, according to the dev understanding of the current design at the time. And yet, eventually there was a realization - sparked finally after countless repeated reports and threads from players - that the implementation of the design was bugged and was not achieving the desired vision. And so a change was made to the design, to make the rate of fire of AFVs depend on element experience. Further adjustments were (and will continue to be) subsequently made.
There are other examples. Things like operational losses, CPP, or what have you. In each of these sorts of cases, your tendency has been to deny that there is a problem - which is not unreasonable if indeed that was your genuine opinion. But the real problem is that you denied (or were perceived to deny) that it was
possible there could be a problem. That it was WAD, and therefore all must be well. That is the part that many people react negatively to.
It is ok to have opinions. It is ok to disagree. But my sincere advice to you is to think about what I have said here, and to try to avoid saying (or implying) that everything or anything that happens in the game is merely a reflection of player choices and it couldn't be possible that something deeper was actually wrong. And likewise, I suggest that you try to avoid saying or implying that just because something is WAD, that means it is necessarily ok and necessarily ends the discussion.
But enough of that. I really don't want to be talking about that sort of thing, and I hope we can get back to substantive issues and discuss them in a reasoned manner. I hope that you will consider this and look at the substantive points I have raised regarding airfield bombing with a fresh set of eyes and open mind.