Odds changed when different unit selected first

[BlueTemplar]

[...]
Indeed, it seems that the game averages the values ​​of the bonuses granted by the 2 commanders instead of adding them. This means that a unit with a high level SHQ combined with a lower OHQ sees its 2 modifiers lower than those of a unit without an OHQ.

[...]
En effet, il semble que le jeu fait la moyenne des valeurs des bonus octroyés par les 2 commandants au lieu de les ajouter. Ce qui veux dire qu'une unité avec un SHQ de haut niveau combiné à un OHQ plus faible voit ses 2 modificateurs inférieurs à ceux d'une unité n'ayant pas d'OHQ.

Interesting theory, but I don't see how this can result in negative bonuses from Commander(s) ?

I made a quick video to demonstrate why I'm thinking that there is a bug concerning the 2 leader skill modifiers:
https://youtu.be/VpurdYFfsVg
But my english is very poor.
What I would said here is the the leader modifiers tooltips should be: Average High command bonus for Rover IV is 51% AND average OHQ bonus for Rover IV is 18 (total average bonus = 60% (51+18/2)).

Yeah, well noticed : looks like indeed that the odds calculation assumes that OHQ replaces SHQ in terms of bonuses, while in practice, during the combat those bonuses are added ?

Except then total bonus when both are present should probably be +69% ? (Why +18%/2 ??)


Ouais, bien vu, c'est comme si le calcul d'estimations remplaçait les bonus du Quartier Général Stratégique par ceux du Quartier Général Opérationnel, alors qu'en pratique lors du combat ils s'ajoutent ?

A part que le bonus total devrait donc être +69% ? (Pourquoi +18%/2 ??)

[JeanleChauve]

Merci d'avoir suivi mon cheminement de pensée.

Thank you for following my train of thought.

Yeah, well noticed : looks like indeed that the odds calculation assumes that OHQ replaces SHQ in terms of bonuses, while in practice, during the combat those bonuses are added ?
Except then total bonus when both are present should probably be +69% ? (Why +18%/2 ??)


Ouais, bien vu, c'est comme si le calcul d'estimations remplaçait les bonus du Quartier Général Stratégique par ceux du Quartier Général Opérationnel, alors qu'en pratique lors du combat ils s'ajoutent ?

A part que le bonus total devrait donc être +69% ? (Pourquoi +18%/2 ??)

Ce serait 51+18 si les deux unités avaient un OHQ.
Comme c'est une moyenne et qu'il n'y a qu'une unité qui reçoit le bonus OHQ, ça donne 18/2.

It would be 51+18 if both units had an OHQ.
Since this is an average and there is only one unit that receives the OHQ bonus, it gives 18/2.

Je t'invite à regarder le nouveau post que j'ai écris dans le tech support : https://www.matrixgames.com/forums/view ... 8&t=389012
Tu verras que j'ai peaufiné la démonstration que l'OHQ écrase le SHQ, mais selon l'effectivité (distance).

I invite you to look at the new post I wrote in tech support: https://www.matrixgames.com/forums/view ... 8&t=389012
You will see that I refined the demonstration that the OHQ overridde the SHQ, but according to the effectiveness (distance).

Et j'ai comme une intuition que l'IA pourrait bien utiliser cette estimation des chances pour décider de ses attaques.
Si c'est le cas, corriger ce calcul pourrait rendre l'IA plus performante.

And I have a hunch that the AI might well use this odds estimate to decide its attacks.
If so, correcting this calculation could make the AI perform better.

[BlueTemplar]

Ah, my bad, I had forgotten that this was averaged over two otherwise identical units !

Yeah, while the video is great to quickly understand the context, a post with text + screenshots is better to actually get into the details of the issue !


Oups, j'avais oublié que c'était dans le contexte de deux unités identiques !

Merci, la vidéo est bien plus claire pour saisir rapidement la situation, mais c'est bien plus facile de rentrer dans les details avec un message complet, avec copies d'écran et chiffres à l'appui !

[KingHalford]

I'm gonna pipe in once more and praise the game for what might initially look like a very odd design choice. I really dislike deterministic combat resolution and I feel that these odds calculations end up being much more realistic in their wild inaccuracy, much like in real warfare, you might have some idea of what is going on, but once those guns start firing, all plans go out of the window!

You should not confuse randomness in combat resolution, which is absolutely normal, and randomness in odds calculation. Odds are just here to give you the probability of sucess of your attack. There is absolutely no reason to have any sort of randomness in the calculation of the odds. Because odds are just a probability. Why would you want that the probability calculation to have any sort of randomness in it ? It makes no sense at all. A 5:1 odds means there's a 5/6 probability of success of your attack. It doesn't mean that the result of the attack is deterministic.
In shadow empire, the fact that odds calculation have some uncertainty in it is because for some reason, it was too difficult for Vic to compute the exact number. But you can be sure that if he could have computed the exact probability figure, he would have had. And again, this would certainly not make the combat outcome deterministic.

Perhaps I didn't state myself clearly enough. I know that the combat calculations are not deterministic, but an accurate odds calculation certainly pushes the game further in that direction, while having the odds themselves be more inaccurate adds a further layer of fog of war that I find pleasing.

[nukkxx5058]

But exact odds estimation already contain all the necessary randomness. That's what you get when you bet on a horse in a horse race. Knowing the exact odds never made anybody a millionaire.
What does "random odds" calculations bring ? It just makes odds indicator useless. If for example you have a 35% of success (i.e. exact odds), that's it. All the necessary randomness is included in the figure. If the 35% is not reliable (and especially if you don't know the variability of the figure), then better not display odds at all, because the indicator is useless.

[JeanleChauve]

Thanks for the in-depth presentation of the issue. I have confirmed its not working as intended. Will be improved upon in upcoming patch.