Shatter chance

[Jango32]

I have seen shatters happen, but they seem to be mostly determined by the number of men killed/captured if there aren't that many to begin with (2300 men or so) or how close to max TOE the unit is at the start of combat. Far too often there is combat that leads to 95% or higher losses and the counter just routs away, including 100% losses.

To give an example from Veterin vs ToxicThug:


Shouldn't such catastrophic losses lead to the shatter of the unit instead of a rout?

[Jango32]

Because I cannot upload .psv files as attachments directly on the forum, I will attach two saves from the PBEM game I have against ToxicThug.

Use 7th Panzer in Borisov to attack the 38th tank division with the shatter_test file. In the 99_losses_rout save that tank division is left only with 25 men and it routed away. I had a battle with 100% losses using an infantry regiment against an NKVD border guard that routed away, but I do not have a save right before the attack. It happened between Lyuboml and Kovel.

https://we.tl/t-cDDQXWrbdG

[Jango32]

Never mind, I forgot about the zip option.

shatter_test.zip

(3.85 MiB) Downloaded 11 times

[Veterin]

I know there is an element of randomness on if a unit will shatter vs rout but i think there should be an overriding rule that forces an automatic shattering with a very high threshold.

For example, if a unit is on less than 1% TOE and they lost a battle by 99:0 CV ratio it could be an automatic shatter. When 100% of elements are destroyed in combat it's hard to argue against that unit not shattering (who's left to keep fighting )

[Joel Billings]

Sometimes the messages re routing/shattering/surrendered aren't the final answer. Did you check to see if the unit was listed as destroyed in the losses screen? It is odd to see all the men and guns listed as destroyed but not the unit, but I suppose it could happen depending on the sequencing of the various checks for shatter versus rout, and when the losses come in (for example when it started to rout there were still enough elements left not to shatter, but then the retreat losses destroyed everything. I'm just guessing though, as it's all in Gary's routines and they aren't clearly spelled out re the sequences. We've done what we can reasonably do with the combat messages without a total rewrite of the battle report, which would be unwise at this point, so I'd call it WAD.

[Jango32]

I have checked in my save the status of the 98th NKVD which also got routed with 100% losses and it is not showing up as destroyed/shattered anywhere, so it routed with 100% losses.

[Wiedrock]

saves:
I can't load the saves (since it requires a PW)...but I have anyways no idea about multiplayer.

historically/immersion:
I understand the complain, but completely removing a CU from the map everytime it loses too many men would result in too thin manned lines pretty fast i guess, since you can't create new formations from scratch. And looking at history many completely "dismanned" formations have been rebuild.
If you inflict 100% losses after a rout many of this losses may have been occured after the battle (leaving equipment behind) so you basically have not "destroyed" that stuff but it was rather left behind to escape/save the CUs officers/leaders (further see "the math").

the manual:
Overall the battle result as far as I have understood is mostly impacted by odds, kind of formations fighting and supply status (isolated/pathing etc.). Therefore the game doesn't only care about how many Ground Elements got destroyed while/after fighting, this ratio is only used as one part of determination wether a CU shatters.
Let's assume the attacker always wins, the defender will always retreat and other specific circumstances will make it a shatter/surrender, if those specific circumstances are not met it can only be converted into a rout, not a shatter/surrender.

• If the defender is in a hex that was isolated at the start of the turn (23.12) and is forced to retreat they may retreat normally if a path exists or surrender. They will always surrender if they have no valid retreat path;
• If the defender had no valid retreat path (but was not isolated at the start of the turn), then the retreat will become a rout with much higher losses;
• If the defender is badly beaten, has low morale or [low] experience, poorly led or is an infantry unit facing motorized attackers, it is possible [additional RNG involved I guess] that a retreat result will see the unit shatter and be destroyed instead of retreating. In these circumstances, even if the unit retreats normally it may also take much heavier losses.

In the third part I interpret the circumstances as ANDs, since dedicated ORs are named itself.

the math:
Read on 23.10.2. Battle Losses (Living Manual 1.18 p.424f).
No all dead elements are actually 100% dead men, some men survive(wounded)/are captured instead. So the indication of losing 100% isn't 100% correct as far as I'd interpret this.