A Japanese invasion of Hawaii

[Torplexed]

What "night" interception? There is no GPS in this era. B-17's could barely hit major cities at night. The planes would be dispersed from the runway anyway. And the Japs can get airborne at the crack of dawn, coming down in small groups to refuel and rearm - then back up.

I'm speaking of night interception of B-17s by Zeroes. A poor proposition without radar. And I don't think either the US Army Air Corps or the US Navy is going to have much trouble finding what was until a short time ago a US airfield in their own back yard even at night.

I also shudder to think of the heavy losses your unarmored Betty bombers are going to take in their raids on Oahu airfield in the days to come without the element of surprise and all those Army AA batteries that were stood down on December 7th active.

[RangerJoe]

I just want to add this info on the battle for Luzon:

Japanese losses were 4,130 dead (Japanese #s - 7,000 dead US #s).
Allied losses were 25,000 killed.

That sounds like a lot of combat to me - requiring lots of supplies.

A lot of the Allied dead were the result of starvation and disease. Three battalions of Japanese soldiers were wiped out before the 48th Division fled.

[warspite1]

No you mis-understand. I know which countries surrendered after the fall of their capitals and which didn't - I told you because, if you recall, you confidently stated that ALL countries surrendered once their capital was lost in WWII .

I'd like to see any quote from me to that effect.

The point was, you made a big thing about the Spanish surrendering if the capital was taken BECAUSE that is what the wargame, you based your plan on, stated. You made no allowance for the fact you were looking at a game - and the surrender rule is just as likely to be a game mechanic as much as any attempt at looking at history.

Making use of the experts at SPI.

warspite1

Your wish is my command - so much for the 'experts' at SPI. To be fair I don't think they necessarily got the rule wrong because they didn't understand WWII - they chose the rule as a game mechanic. Why you treat game rules (where often counter mix is dependent on cost, or rules are made in the name of game balance or playing time etc.) as neccessarily historically accurate is totally beyond me, but that whole thread evidenced a lack of your understanding of basic WWII knowledge.



The below is from a back and forth from August 2020

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

And, all they have to do is get to Madrid, whereupon Spain will surrender and her forces will dissolve.

ORIGINAL: warspite1

Why is that then? How do you know that will definitely happen?

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

Every other European country did the exact same thing.


Three things Curtis Lemay: No. They. Didn’t.

[Aurelian]

The so called experts at SPI forgot to include the Guard Mech/Tank/Artillery divisions/corps in WiTE and WiE.

And Guard Infantry wasn't something you could build on a production spiral It was an honorary title for battle performance. Sure they got better equipment. But again, you don't build them.

[Torplexed]

The so called experts at SPI forgot to include the Guard Mech/Tank/Artillery divisions/corps in WiTE and WiE.

And Guard Infantry wasn't something you could build on a production spiral It was an honorary title for battle performance. Sure they got better equipment. But again, you don't build them.

I owned a few SPI games back in my teen years. There were some great titles. However, in the forty years or so since they folded as a business a lot more research has come to light on the subject of WW2. Especially on the subject of the Eastern Front with so many former Soviet records, archives and files becoming available that weren't before during the Cold War.

In the Pacific War, for years the vast majority of Japanese material and records were simply never translated into English, let alone published in the west. For instance, Mitsuo Fuchida, commander of the Pearl Harbor raid has since been outed as an unreliable narrator. What he said in testimony to post-war interrogators and later in the 1960s to historians with books to sell are two completely different stories. In Japan itself, he has been considered discredited for years. However, back then if you were a major Japanese participant in the war and could speak English you were highly sought after. Apparently, fact checking with those who couldn't speak English or didn't seek the limelight only came much later.

Frankly, a lot of what we previously believed about many facets of the war have been shown to be myths with the passage of time. Doesn't make a great deal of sense to be locked into game mechanics and conventions the 1970s forever.

[Aurelian]

The so called experts at SPI forgot to include the Guard Mech/Tank/Artillery divisions/corps in WiTE and WiE.

And Guard Infantry wasn't something you could build on a production spiral It was an honorary title for battle performance. Sure they got better equipment. But again, you don't build them.

I owned a few SPI games back in my teen years. There were some great titles. However, in the forty years or so since they folded as a business a lot more research has come to light on the subject of WW2. Especially on the subject of the Eastern Front with so many former Soviet records, archives and files becoming available that weren't before during the Cold War.

In the Pacific War, for years the vast majority of Japanese material and records were simply never translated into English, let alone published in the west. For instance, Mitsuo Fuchida, commander of the Pearl Harbor raid has since been outed as an unreliable narrator. What he said in testimony to post-war interrogators and later in the 1960s to historians with books to sell are two completely different stories. In Japan itself, he has been considered discredited for years. However, back then if you were a major Japanese participant in the war and could speak English you were highly sought after. Apparently, fact checking with those who couldn't speak English or didn't seek the limelight only came much later.

Frankly, a lot of what we previously believed about many facets of the war have been shown to be myths with the passage of time. Doesn't make a great deal of sense to be locked into game mechanics and conventions the 1970s forever.

Agree completely. Just look at Pacific War vs WiTP-AE. I've owned quite a few SPI/Avalon Hill games way back when.

[Buckrock]

Even assuming 200 miles is statute miles, covering that distance in 5 hours would equate to an average speed of approximately 35 knots. It's not going to happen the night of Dec 6/7th and it's even less likely in the week that followed when both Japanese and US records showed the weather worsened. You're welcome to check the weather records after that.

The "Pearl Harbor Papers" has an extract From the XO's war diary of the (large) destroyer Akigumo describing the sea conditions experienced by the KB DD's on the final 20-25 knot night approach to the launch position:-
"Strong swells". "The bow of the ship was covered with splashes from waves raised by the strong east wind of 14 m-15 m (29 kts-30 kts)".

I've mentioned before what the likely top speed was of the Mutsuki class by 1941 but even if we pretend they were capable of something like their original "design speed" and that 2+ weeks in the North Pacific hadn't taken its toll, you will still have reality intervening as the ships attempt to find a sustainable speed in the heavy sea conditions during this stage of the season and also one that all the ships can hold in order to keep the formation together through the night. And then there is the conditions for the passengers and the impact on the cargo loads to consider.

If this was ever attempted in reality under those conditions, I'm betting the formation speed would not have been much above 25 knots while crossing the open seas.

Note that this would be in Hawaiian waters, not the North Pacific.

Unless you are within a few miles of the coast, there should be little difference. It's the waters immediately to the south of the Hawaiian islands where conditions will be noticeably different.

Regardless, so what if it takes longer to get there. Even if it takes 7 hours, that still leaves 5 hours before dawn. Even 3 hours of sailing out is enough to make their discovery to late for any action by Pearl before the raid begins.

If you believe this particular mission is so doable, lay out the time of day and distance from Oahu/Maui that KB and the APD force are expected to be operating at when they receive the "2 CVs" confirmation. Everything else can be determined from there.

[Buckrock]

The Bettys would have no slack in their range in this scenario. In fact they probably couldn't even make a direct flight from Eniwetok to Maui because of the influence of the Trade Winds at that time of year. Then throw in climb to altitude, then how far off course they could be after a 15 hour open-water flight, then having to locate their target amongst the existing Oahu chaos and set up for their formation bomb run, then head for Maui, locate the airfield, wait for confirmation it's in friendly hands and then finally begin their attempts at approaching and landing one at a time at an unfamiliar airfield.

We get it. It's a wind-up. You can stop now.

I'll repeat: Range of Betty fully loaded - 3132 miles (that obviously includes climb to altitude). Range from Eniwetok to Oahu - 2715 miles. Range from Oahu to Maui - 115 miles. That's 302 miles of slack. And winds vary with altitude. They can seek out the optimum one.

Trade Wind strength varies with altitude (normally it strengthens at higher altitudes) but direction in December would remain generally from the NE within the normal cruising altitude of a G4M1. A 5th Amphib Corps report made during the US invasion of the Marshalls in '44 lists NE trade wind conditions there in Dec-Feb "prevailing up to 8000ft" but that the winds could still "have an influence up to 12000ft."

Temporary variations in wind direction at lower altitudes could occur under the influence of local pressure systems (that can also bring their own set of problems) but these would be too unpredictable to build a mission around that needed to coincide with your PH strike schedule. In fact the mission profile for the G4M1s I outlined earlier should have been enough on its own for the Japanese to realize the mission's likely chance of completion is Zero rather than Betty.

[Curtis Lemay]

US fighters could fly to Oahu from Hilo.

They could be delivered by aircraft ferry to Johnston Atoll southwest of Oahu and routed in that way as well. Lots of holes in this poorly cast net.

Johnston Atoll is also well under the spotting and torpedoing umbrella of the Japanese.

[Curtis Lemay]

I'm speaking of night interception of B-17s by Zeroes. A poor proposition without radar. And I don't think either the US Army Air Corps or the US Navy is going to have much trouble finding what was until a short time ago a US airfield in their own back yard even at night.

If they're lucky they will just bomb the ocean. Unlucky and they kill bunches of Hawaian civilians. Jap planes will be rolled off the airfield quite a ways.

I also shudder to think of the heavy losses your unarmored Betty bombers are going to take in their raids on Oahu airfield in the days to come without the element of surprise and all those Army AA batteries that were stood down on December 7th active.

Why would they fare worse than they did on Luzon? You are gifting the US with mid-war conditioning. And the Japanese, who've planned this operation for months in advance, are going to get bounced by the clueless US? There will be Japanese sighting reports from the West Coast even. It will take days for the US to even figure out whats up.

[Curtis Lemay]

No you mis-understand. I know which countries surrendered after the fall of their capitals and which didn't - I told you because, if you recall, you confidently stated that ALL countries surrendered once their capital was lost in WWII .

I'd like to see any quote from me to that effect.

The point was, you made a big thing about the Spanish surrendering if the capital was taken BECAUSE that is what the wargame, you based your plan on, stated. You made no allowance for the fact you were looking at a game - and the surrender rule is just as likely to be a game mechanic as much as any attempt at looking at history.

Making use of the experts at SPI.

warspite1

Your wish is my command - so much for the 'experts' at SPI. To be fair I don't think they necessarily got the rule wrong because they didn't understand WWII - they chose the rule as a game mechanic. Why you treat game rules (where often counter mix is dependent on cost, or rules are made in the name of game balance or playing time etc.) as neccessarily historically accurate is totally beyond me, but that whole thread evidenced a lack of your understanding of basic WWII knowledge.



The below is from a back and forth from August 2020

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

And, all they have to do is get to Madrid, whereupon Spain will surrender and her forces will dissolve.

ORIGINAL: warspite1

Why is that then? How do you know that will definitely happen?

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

Every other European country did the exact same thing.


Three things Curtis Lemay: No. They. Didn’t.

Link?

[Curtis Lemay]

Note that this would be in Hawaiian waters, not the North Pacific.

Unless you are within a few miles of the coast, there should be little difference. It's the waters immediately to the south of the Hawaiian islands where conditions will be noticeably different.

Regardless, so what if it takes longer to get there. Even if it takes 7 hours, that still leaves 5 hours before dawn. Even 3 hours of sailing out is enough to make their discovery to late for any action by Pearl before the raid begins.

If you believe this particular mission is so doable, lay out the time of day and distance from Oahu/Maui that KB and the APD force are expected to be operating at when they receive the "2 CVs" confirmation. Everything else can be determined from there.

It occurs to me that they don't have to start 200 miles from Maui. They only have to be 200 miles from Oahu - which is where any scouting patrols would originate. Maui is already 115 miles from Oahu. So, they only have to start out about 100 miles from Maui - and get 100 miles away after.

[Curtis Lemay]

Trade Wind strength varies with altitude (normally it strengthens at higher altitudes) but direction in December would remain generally from the NE within the normal cruising altitude of a G4M1. A 5th Amphib Corps report made during the US invasion of the Marshalls in '44 lists NE trade wind conditions there in Dec-Feb "prevailing up to 8000ft" but that the winds could still "have an influence up to 12000ft."

Temporary variations in wind direction at lower altitudes could occur under the influence of local pressure systems (that can also bring their own set of problems) but these would be too unpredictable to build a mission around that needed to coincide with your PH strike schedule. In fact the mission profile for the G4M1s I outlined earlier should have been enough on its own for the Japanese to realize the mission's likely chance of completion is Zero rather than Betty.

Trade winds, by definition, are winds that fill the sails of trading vessels. That means surface winds. Nothing to do with aircraft. The Japanese could perform tests to find the optimum altitude for the mission in the months leading up to it.

Regardless, if they find they can't make the Oahu - Maui route. They can head straight to Maui instead.

In a worst case scenario, they could fly to Maui unloaded. That will extend their range greatly. Then they don't get to hit Pearl till the afternoon, though.

Also, note that Honolulu radio guided the carrier planes historically. That beacon would at least be available at the start and finish of the route.

[RangerJoe]

US fighters could fly to Oahu from Hilo.

They could be delivered by aircraft ferry to Johnston Atoll southwest of Oahu and routed in that way as well. Lots of holes in this poorly cast net.

Johnston Atoll is also well under the spotting and torpedoing umbrella of the Japanese.

So? That does not mean that any ship will be spotted. Not only that, fighters based at Johnston Atoll would shoot down the Japanese aircraft.

[RangerJoe]

I'm speaking of night interception of B-17s by Zeroes. A poor proposition without radar. And I don't think either the US Army Air Corps or the US Navy is going to have much trouble finding what was until a short time ago a US airfield in their own back yard even at night.

If they're lucky they will just bomb the ocean. Unlucky and they kill bunches of Hawaian civilians. Jap planes will be rolled off the airfield quite a ways.

I also shudder to think of the heavy losses your unarmored Betty bombers are going to take in their raids on Oahu airfield in the days to come without the element of surprise and all those Army AA batteries that were stood down on December 7th active.

Why would they fare worse than they did on Luzon? You are gifting the US with mid-war conditioning. And the Japanese, who've planned this operation for months in advance, are going to get bounced by the clueless US? There will be Japanese sighting reports from the West Coast even. It will take days for the US to even figure out whats up.

You are giving the Japanese too many Superman powers. Bombing the ocean? Even when the Japanese positions have been marked by civilians? Those civilians would have signal fires started. If the Japanese were to kill the civilians, then Germany would be last on the US list and Japan would be first. There might not even be much of a draft because of all of the volunteers, many of whom would take souvenirs from the Japanese.

[Curtis Lemay]

They could be delivered by aircraft ferry to Johnston Atoll southwest of Oahu and routed in that way as well. Lots of holes in this poorly cast net.

Johnston Atoll is also well under the spotting and torpedoing umbrella of the Japanese.

So? That does not mean that any ship will be spotted. Not only that, fighters based at Johnston Atoll would shoot down the Japanese aircraft.

They will have to run that gauntlet. Cargo ships - slow movers. Lots of time to get noticed in daylight. Any fighters based on Johnston Atoll would be a waste when the need would be on Oahu.

All of this takes time. Time during which the port facilities and oil stocks on Oahu are going to get torched.

[Curtis Lemay]

You are giving the Japanese too many Superman powers. Bombing the ocean? Even when the Japanese positions have been marked by civilians? Those civilians would have signal fires started. If the Japanese were to kill the civilians, then Germany would be last on the US list and Japan would be first. There might not even be much of a draft because of all of the volunteers, many of whom would take souvenirs from the Japanese.

Civilians wouldn't be allowed anywhere near the troops or facilities. And if the US military is clueless, imagine how clueless the civilians will be!

[RangerJoe]

Note that this would be in Hawaiian waters, not the North Pacific.

Unless you are within a few miles of the coast, there should be little difference. It's the waters immediately to the south of the Hawaiian islands where conditions will be noticeably different.

Regardless, so what if it takes longer to get there. Even if it takes 7 hours, that still leaves 5 hours before dawn. Even 3 hours of sailing out is enough to make their discovery to late for any action by Pearl before the raid begins.

If you believe this particular mission is so doable, lay out the time of day and distance from Oahu/Maui that KB and the APD force are expected to be operating at when they receive the "2 CVs" confirmation. Everything else can be determined from there.

It occurs to me that they don't have to start 200 miles from Maui. They only have to be 200 miles from Oahu - which is where any scouting patrols would originate. Maui is already 115 miles from Oahu. So, they only have to start out about 100 miles from Maui - and get 100 miles away after.

You really believe that American scouting aircraft only flies 200 miles? If so, then how can you claim that Johnston Island is within spotting range of any Japanese in Hawaii since the Japanese are not supermen.

There is no assurance that the weather and see state will be better south of Hawaii. Not to mention any fishing vessels or other vessels that may be encountered, all it takes is one radio message for an alert to be called.

If the carriers are not in port, then these ships would have to be recalled and then they could also be seen which would eliminate any surprise.

[RangerJoe]

Trade Wind strength varies with altitude (normally it strengthens at higher altitudes) but direction in December would remain generally from the NE within the normal cruising altitude of a G4M1. A 5th Amphib Corps report made during the US invasion of the Marshalls in '44 lists NE trade wind conditions there in Dec-Feb "prevailing up to 8000ft" but that the winds could still "have an influence up to 12000ft."

Temporary variations in wind direction at lower altitudes could occur under the influence of local pressure systems (that can also bring their own set of problems) but these would be too unpredictable to build a mission around that needed to coincide with your PH strike schedule. In fact the mission profile for the G4M1s I outlined earlier should have been enough on its own for the Japanese to realize the mission's likely chance of completion is Zero rather than Betty.

Trade winds, by definition, are winds that fill the sails of trading vessels. That means surface winds. Nothing to do with aircraft. The Japanese could perform tests to find the optimum altitude for the mission in the months leading up to it.

Regardless, if they find they can't make the Oahu - Maui route. They can head straight to Maui instead.

In a worst case scenario, they could fly to Maui unloaded. That will extend their range greatly. Then they don't get to hit Pearl till the afternoon, though.

Also, note that Honolulu radio guided the carrier planes historically. That beacon would at least be available at the start and finish of the route.

Winds are actually stronger above the surface which would impact the aircraft more. You can't make sure that the bombers would have an overnight radio to guide them in since it was only on for the fight of B17s coming in.

Flying to Maui unloaded means that there would have to be bombs, fuels, any parts for repairs needed, plus the ground crews and any equipment that they need. How does all of that get there? Unless you are having untrained Japanese Army infantry take care of the Japanese Naval bombers?

[RangerJoe]

Johnston Atoll is also well under the spotting and torpedoing umbrella of the Japanese.

So? That does not mean that any ship will be spotted. Not only that, fighters based at Johnston Atoll would shoot down the Japanese aircraft.

They will have to run that gauntlet. Cargo ships - slow movers. Lots of time to get noticed in daylight. Any fighters based on Johnston Atoll would be a waste when the need would be on Oahu.

All of this takes time. Time during which the port facilities and oil stocks on Oahu are going to get torched.

Not all of the cargo ships are slow.

How are those port facilities and oil stocks going to get torched when all of the unmanned and unammoed AAA units will be manned and ready. Not to mention fighter and other aircraft waiting to attack the enemy, the American aircraft being guided by ground control with radar and ground observers available?