A Japanese invasion of Hawaii

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Re: A Japanese invasion of Hawaii

Post by Platoonist »

warspite1 wrote: Wed Dec 07, 2022 5:15 am A question for Afficionados of the Japanese navy. This plan keeps changing to beat off challenges put up. But I believe the plan,at least at one point, envisaged Zeros from one of the carriers flying to the airfield on Maui to support the Bettys.

I understand that just before Midway (just six months into the war - a war that had largely seen only success for the Japanese) the front line carriers were slightly understrength and the second line carriers had major problems getting enough aircrew/airplanes to actually bring the air component up to strength. That being the case, how easily could Japan have replaced the Zero pilots and brought the carrier back up to strength in December 1941?

I also believe that the Zeros originally earmarked for the Luzon operation were to replace the Zeros sent to Maui, but that assumes these land based pilots had carrier training. Again I am not certain, but I don’t believe they all necesarily were.

Japan had a major problem with training sufficient carrier based aircrew to meet war losses once the war started. Losing these carrier based fighters from one of the main Japanese carriers, may potentially have put that carrier out of action for a while, no? Unless they denuded the second line carriers further.
The Hikōkitai or air groups of Japanese carriers were permanently assigned to that ship. So close was the association that they literally took the name of the carrier on which they were based, i.e. Akagi Hikōkitai. While it's true that by 1943 the Japanese were forced by the exhaustion of the Imperial Army Air forces to operate their Navy carrier groups from land for the I-Go air offensive in the Solomons it was something they would have been very loathe to do in 1941. Even switching and mixing air groups and pilots between carriers was deemed too unorthodox. It could been done with the Shokakau and Zuikaku air groups prior to Midway to give Japan one more carrier in the battle but wasn't as the Japanese placed more value on established air institutions than they did on flexibility. Japanese air doctrine and organization changed only stubbornly under the stresses and losses of war. Especially after the debacle at Midway when they realized that they needed to burn the book they had been going by.

The active fighter squadrons on each of the Japanese carriers at Pearl Harbor in 1941 was composed of 18 A6M Zeros, although some spares were onboard. Some accounts state the groups as larger but that was based on the older and smaller A5M Claude which the Kido Butai had recently relegated to second-line status. After the PH raid, the carrier with the largest number of operational fighters would likely have been the Shokaku which still had 16 Zeros in flyable condition. If you use that air group to fly to Maui that means Maui will have actually less fighter planes on hand than Oahu does accounting for historical losses.

The remaining strength of land-based Zero squadrons in Asia would have been about 90 with the Tainan and 3rd Kōkūtais in Formosa and 25 with the Yamada Detachment in Soc Trang, Vietnam. However, these weren't carrier-trained. In an effort to make sure that the Kido Butai had the full air strength it needed, the Japanese stripped the Zeros and most of the carrier-trained pilots off the light carriers Ryujo and Zuiho, leaving them with the older A5M Claudes and second stringer pilots. The light carrier Zuiho actually ended being left in home waters on December 7th to train up, as its fighter air group was not considered up to standards anymore after all this ransacking.

The Imperial Army Air forces were active in SE Asia as well, but were mostly concentrated over Malaya, Hong Kong and Burma and weren't too keen on assisting the Navy. Plus, the IJA Ki-43 Oscar wasn't quite the long-distance performer that the A6M was.

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Re: A Japanese invasion of Hawaii

Post by Torplexed »

Platoonist wrote: Wed Dec 07, 2022 10:37 am

The active fighter squadrons on each of the Japanese carriers at Pearl Harbor in 1941 was composed of 18 A6M Zeros, although some spares were onboard. Some accounts state the groups as larger but that was based on the older and smaller A5M Claude which the Kido Butai had recently relegated to second-line status. After the PH raid, the carrier with the largest number of operational fighters would likely have been the Shokaku which still had 16 Zeros in flyable condition. If you use that air group to fly to Maui that means Maui will have actually less fighter planes on hand than Oahu does accounting for historical losses.
Yes, and the moment those Zeros touch down there will be drums of high-octane fuel and stacked crates of 20mm and 7.7 mm ammo waiting by the runway for them along with the trained ground personnel ready to pump fuel, tune engines and patch holes. They'll be flying CAP in no time. Because we all know from reading our history that in an opposed WW2 amphibious op every item rolls straight off the boat, right there where you need it, at the very the moment you need it and nobody ever gets lost or gets landed in the wrong place. :roll:
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Re: A Japanese invasion of Hawaii

Post by Aurelian »

RangerJoe wrote: Tue Dec 06, 2022 11:31 pm
Aurelian wrote: Tue Dec 06, 2022 11:04 pm
RangerJoe wrote: Tue Dec 06, 2022 3:28 pm

The way that I understand that quote, I take it as "Unless you change your attitude and demands, it is not worth discussing this anymore." But it does not necessarily mean that war is imminent.

Oh well, there is a certain movie to watch tomorrow . . .
Since neither side was going to back down, what else is there?
A pause with a consensus upon what was agreed upon, then people actually sitting down and discussion the situation. As a note according to my understanding, when the US government referred to "China" it did not also include "Manchuria/Manchukuo" which the Japanese government thought that the US government included in "China." That was a major sticking point.
Since neither side was going to back down and were entrenched in their positions, there was going to be no further discussion. And Manchuria was part of China. The IJA was not going to leave China.
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Re: A Japanese invasion of Hawaii

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For want of a nail, a shoe was lost.
For want of a shoe, a horse was lost.
For want of a horse, a rider was lost.
For want of a rider, a message was lost.
For want of a message, a battle was lost.
For want of a battle, a war was lost.
For want of a war, a kingdom was lost.

For want of a grease fitting which cost less than two cents, an M1 tank could not adjust its track after a track adjuster was replaced. Ask a DAT how well that works on a tank when the track can't be adjusted.

A man bought a new car and added engine oil when the check engine light came on. The engine needed to be replaced after about 21,000 kilometers or about 13,000 miles.

Those two things are trivial things in the grand scheme of things but f they are not done . . .

Now think of an aircraft that needs a part. Also, I do believe that the Japanese used the metric system at the time so American tools using the English system of measurement woud not always work.
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Re: A Japanese invasion of Hawaii

Post by RangerJoe »

Aurelian wrote: Wed Dec 07, 2022 1:45 pm
RangerJoe wrote: Tue Dec 06, 2022 11:31 pm
Aurelian wrote: Tue Dec 06, 2022 11:04 pm

Since neither side was going to back down, what else is there?
A pause with a consensus upon what was agreed upon, then people actually sitting down and discussion the situation. As a note according to my understanding, when the US government referred to "China" it did not also include "Manchuria/Manchukuo" which the Japanese government thought that the US government included in "China." That was a major sticking point.
Since neither side was going to back down and were entrenched in their positions, there was going to be no further discussion. And Manchuria was part of China. The IJA was not going to leave China.
Except that the US government did not mean that the Japanese had to leave Manchuria, so that was a point of misunderstanding that if it was cleared up, then things might have worked out otherwise.

Also, the "embargo" on oil was not supposed to be complete, the Japanese were supposed to request to purchase a certain amount and I do believe to state what purpose it was for. There would be a limit on the purchases so the civilian economy would have oil but not the military. That was not done, I do believe that no oil was allowed to be purchased due to overzealous bureaucrats. This is because of the US government ending or not renewing a trade agreement.

So, poor communications on both sides.
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Re: A Japanese invasion of Hawaii

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Platoonist wrote: Wed Dec 07, 2022 10:37 am After the PH raid, the carrier with the largest number of operational fighters would likely have been the Shokaku which still had 16 Zeros in flyable condition. If you use that air group to fly to Maui that means Maui will have actually less fighter planes on hand than Oahu does accounting for historical losses.
It would have been worse than that for the Japanese as in this scenario both the USN CVs aircraft would be operating from ashore as SOP and most if not all based at Luke Field on Ford Island, an airbase that the Japanese did minimal damage to on Dec 7th, mainly due to its huge size as well as the concentrated defensive AA available in the area. The two CVs combined would have had about 36 fighters ashore and after that it would come down to how many the Japanese could put out of immediate action. Same for the 100+ SBDs/TBDs that would also have been ashore in this scenario.

Personally I'd be interested in seeing the details of Curtis Lemay's KB strike schedule for the initial morning attacks, the afternoon attack and then whatever could be mustered on day 2 before KB runs out of effective ordnance. I suspect KB air units would have found it impossible to meet the objectives being set for them. Even the gap between the morning and afternoon strikes (likely 5-6 hours) is going to make the US defensive capability considerably improved.

I say I'd be interested but I'm not going to hold my breath for details given what we've been provided in the past.
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Re: A Japanese invasion of Hawaii

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Buckrock wrote: Wed Dec 07, 2022 3:25 pm
It would have been worse than that for the Japanese as in this scenario both the USN CVs aircraft would be operating from ashore as SOP and most if not all based at Luke Field on Ford Island, an airbase that the Japanese did minimal damage to on Dec 7th, mainly due to its huge size as well as the concentrated defensive AA available in the area. The two CVs combined would have had about 36 fighters ashore and after that it would come down to how many the Japanese could put out of immediate action. Same for the 100+ SBDs/TBDs that would also have been ashore in this scenario.
warspite1

I made this point previously about the additional aircraft available to the US courtesy of the carriers being at home. I got the usual response that the aircraft would (of course and without question) be destroyed...... I thought about responding as it occured to me that Curtis Lemay may have actually thought the aircraft remained on board the carrier when docked. But I simply didn’t have the energy so let it go.
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Re: A Japanese invasion of Hawaii

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Torplexed wrote: Wed Dec 07, 2022 12:44 pm
Yes, and the moment those Zeros touch down there will be drums of high-octane fuel and stacked crates of 20mm and 7.7 mm ammo waiting by the runway for them along with the trained ground personnel ready to pump fuel, tune engines and patch holes. They'll be flying CAP in no time.
warspite1

It’s pathfinders innit?
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Re: A Japanese invasion of Hawaii

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warspite1 wrote: Wed Dec 07, 2022 3:44 pm
Buckrock wrote: Wed Dec 07, 2022 3:25 pm
It would have been worse than that for the Japanese as in this scenario both the USN CVs aircraft would be operating from ashore as SOP and most if not all based at Luke Field on Ford Island, an airbase that the Japanese did minimal damage to on Dec 7th, mainly due to its huge size as well as the concentrated defensive AA available in the area. The two CVs combined would have had about 36 fighters ashore and after that it would come down to how many the Japanese could put out of immediate action. Same for the 100+ SBDs/TBDs that would also have been ashore in this scenario.
warspite1

I made this point previously about the additional aircraft available to the US courtesy of the carriers being at home. I got the usual response that the aircraft would (of course and without question) be destroyed...... I thought about responding as it occured to me that Curtis Lemay may have actually thought the aircraft remained on board the carrier when docked. But I simply didn’t have the energy so let it go.
Yes, I saw your original comment but because Curtis Lemay was keeping everything about the PH strike so vague, it seemed something to not bother with unless we got some real detail from him first. I only mentioned it now because it's unlikely we'll ever see his master plan in any convincing detail.
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Re: A Japanese invasion of Hawaii

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warspite1 wrote: Wed Dec 07, 2022 3:53 pm
Torplexed wrote: Wed Dec 07, 2022 12:44 pm
Yes, and the moment those Zeros touch down there will be drums of high-octane fuel and stacked crates of 20mm and 7.7 mm ammo waiting by the runway for them along with the trained ground personnel ready to pump fuel, tune engines and patch holes. They'll be flying CAP in no time.
warspite1

It’s pathfinders innit?
Either the pathfinders carry everything with them or they find US 20 mm and 7.7 mm ammo of the same type that the Japanese use but the Allies don't use.
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Re: A Japanese invasion of Hawaii

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Buckrock wrote: Wed Dec 07, 2022 4:03 pm
warspite1 wrote: Wed Dec 07, 2022 3:44 pm
Buckrock wrote: Wed Dec 07, 2022 3:25 pm
It would have been worse than that for the Japanese as in this scenario both the USN CVs aircraft would be operating from ashore as SOP and most if not all based at Luke Field on Ford Island, an airbase that the Japanese did minimal damage to on Dec 7th, mainly due to its huge size as well as the concentrated defensive AA available in the area. The two CVs combined would have had about 36 fighters ashore and after that it would come down to how many the Japanese could put out of immediate action. Same for the 100+ SBDs/TBDs that would also have been ashore in this scenario.
warspite1

I made this point previously about the additional aircraft available to the US courtesy of the carriers being at home. I got the usual response that the aircraft would (of course and without question) be destroyed...... I thought about responding as it occured to me that Curtis Lemay may have actually thought the aircraft remained on board the carrier when docked. But I simply didn’t have the energy so let it go.
Yes, I saw your original comment but because Curtis Lemay was keeping everything about the PH strike so vague, it seemed something to not bother with unless we got some real detail from him first. I only mentioned it now because it's unlikely we'll ever see his master plan in any convincing detail.
Yes, apparently the Enterprise SBDs that arrived over Oahu during the Pearl Harbor attack was ignored because they didn't fit into his plan.
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Re: A Japanese invasion of Hawaii

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KingHart wrote: Wed Dec 07, 2022 1:19 am What do the Japanese do when the APDs are detected sailing within 100 miles of Pearl Harbor on the afternoon of Saturday 6 December?
They won't be sailing that close to Pearl. Only to Maui.

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Re: A Japanese invasion of Hawaii

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KingHart wrote: Wed Dec 07, 2022 1:31 am Historically, the raid commenced at roughly 0800 7 December. So you are claiming the Japanese could cancel the raid, and not declare war, at 0700 7 December.
You have also stated that the invasion of Maui will commence at 2300 6 December. How will the Japanese explain the presence of several infantry battalions on Maui without a DoW?
I only meant that the DoW could be canceled that late. So that isn't an issue. The raid probably would be hard to cancel that late - but not impossible. The battalions could remain in hiding and be pulled out the following night.
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Re: A Japanese invasion of Hawaii

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KingHart wrote: Wed Dec 07, 2022 1:47 am Please explain how any part of your "plan" both guarantees the sinking of two carriers and delays any US response.
Please also explain what exactly you mean by "delaying " any US response. Are you referring to when the US will begin a counterattack against Japan in the Pacific?
Everybody wants guarantees. This is a risk-reward option. The reward is so huge it justifies the tiny risk incurred.

The delay figure was right out of Nimitz's mouth.
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Re: A Japanese invasion of Hawaii

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Buckrock wrote: Wed Dec 07, 2022 3:55 am
Curtis Lemay wrote: Tue Dec 06, 2022 5:02 pm Those are operational details the Japanese can figure out.
But not operational details you can figure out and yet you're saying it definitely could have happened. Which seems to sum up the way you've tried selling your plan since page 1.
Curtis Lemay wrote: A couple of days out, or so,....
A couple of days out from where? And what would that be in distance and direction from objective(s)?
These are simply trivial details that the Japanese can figure out for themselves. Clearly, if the fleet is stationary, the APDs CAN get 12 hours ahead and about 150 miles east of them.
Curtis Lemay wrote: ....the APDs top off from the capitol ships....
Why are the APDs bothering the capital ships? Where have the dozens of tankers gone?
I doubt the tankers sail that far with the fleet. If they are, they can be used instead. Good grief!
Curtis Lemay wrote: ....then set sail for that point....
Sail to what point? And what would that point be in distance and direction from objective(s)?
The fleet sails to the the launch point 200 miles north of Oahu, and the APDs sail to their insertion point 100 miles north of Maui.
Curtis Lemay wrote: ....while the rest of the fleet holds in place.
Holds in place? Have both the USN CVs also agreed to definitely remain in port while the Japanese sort themselves out?
They are hundreds of miles from Oahu. They will be warned if the carriers leave Pearl.
Curtis Lemay wrote: When they get far enough west and 12 hours ahead,.....
How will KB know the APDs have reached this "far enough west" point? Is someone going to use a radio? And isn't west back towards Japan?
Coded messages. (Like "Tora! Tora! Tora!"). I, of course, meant east, not west.
Curtis Lemay wrote: ....the fleet resumes its sail to the launch point.
And when the bored USN CVs start leaving PH and the abort message has to be sent, how can it be ensured that everyone from KB to the Malayan invasion force will get word in time? And who in Hawaii sends the initial abort message that will hopefully lead to this mass turn around stretching the length of the Pacific? Can the initial abort message inform everyone or will it have to suffer the delays of being relayed via Tokyo?
It would go through Tokyo. Why would there be any relay delay? Everyone gets the hold message at the speed of light.
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Re: A Japanese invasion of Hawaii

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warspite1 wrote: Wed Dec 07, 2022 4:58 am ....and of course there is the poor Betty pilots and coordination with them. Remember these aircrew - almost 300 of them - and their 40 valuable bombers have been given a mission thus:

- we want you to take off for a 15 hour flight, over water, largely at night, with weather conditions uncertain.
- at the point of take-off not only is there no airfield to land on, but the attack to take the airfield hasn’t even begun and it may be cancelled
- the attack on Maui can be cancelled up to an hour before the raid (I believe Curtis Lemay said) but that is a problem as the Bettys reach the point of no return long before then. At that point onwards only a watery grave awaits the pilots..... or....
- .."...Curtis Lemay has spoken of situations in which the PH raid itself would be aborted. Who is going to tell the Betty pilots this?
- as often happens in war, comms break down. So imagine a force of 40 Bettys approaching Pearl Harbor ready to attack.... only to find there’s no attack. Aren’t the US going to wonder why they are there?

I mean seriously, the Japanese wouldn’t even need to consider what may go wrong. They would simply look at all the things that would need to go right in order not to throw away 40 valuable aircraft and their almost 300 even more valuable aircrew. Who would possibly think this is a sensible use of scarce resource.

The whole point of Pearl Harbor was to cripple the USN so that Japan could obtain the Southern Resource Area. This didn’t mean that in crippling the USN, the Japanese could afford to cripple themselves.

If Yamamoto put this forward as a viable plan, surely there would only be one outcome; taxi for Yamamoto.
There would be a point beyond which the raid couldn't be canceled. Before the Betty's reached the point of no return, for example.
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Re: A Japanese invasion of Hawaii

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warspite1 wrote: Wed Dec 07, 2022 5:15 am A question for Afficionados of the Japanese navy. This plan keeps changing to beat off challenges put up. But I believe the plan,at least at one point, envisaged Zeros from one of the carriers flying to the airfield on Maui to support the Bettys.

I understand that just before Midway (just six months into the war - a war that had largely seen only success for the Japanese) the front line carriers were slightly understrength and the second line carriers had major problems getting enough aircrew/airplanes to actually bring the air component up to strength. That being the case, how easily could Japan have replaced the Zero pilots and brought the carrier back up to strength in December 1941?

I also believe that the Zeros originally earmarked for the Luzon operation were to replace the Zeros sent to Maui, but that assumes these land based pilots had carrier training. Again I am not certain, but I don’t believe they all necesarily were.

Japan had a major problem with training sufficient carrier based aircrew to meet war losses once the war started. Losing these carrier based fighters from one of the main Japanese carriers, may potentially have put that carrier out of action for a while, no? Unless they denuded the second line carriers further.
They have months to prepare. The Luzon Zeros could be trained up. But, even without this, it only impacts far down the road with the carriers. The Maui operation itself remains doable.

And, as soon as Midway is taken, the Zeros on Maui can be swapped with the Zeros from Luzon, regardless of their carrier status.
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Re: A Japanese invasion of Hawaii

Post by Curtis Lemay »

Platoonist wrote: Wed Dec 07, 2022 10:37 am The Hikōkitai or air groups of Japanese carriers were permanently assigned to that ship. So close was the association that they literally took the name of the carrier on which they were based, i.e. Akagi Hikōkitai. While it's true that by 1943 the Japanese were forced by the exhaustion of the Imperial Army Air forces to operate their Navy carrier groups from land for the I-Go air offensive in the Solomons it was something they would have been very loathe to do in 1941. Even switching and mixing air groups and pilots between carriers was deemed too unorthodox. It could been done with the Shokakau and Zuikaku air groups prior to Midway to give Japan one more carrier in the battle but wasn't as the Japanese placed more value on established air institutions than they did on flexibility. Japanese air doctrine and organization changed only stubbornly under the stresses and losses of war. Especially after the debacle at Midway when they realized that they needed to burn the book they had been going by.

The active fighter squadrons on each of the Japanese carriers at Pearl Harbor in 1941 was composed of 18 A6M Zeros, although some spares were onboard. Some accounts state the groups as larger but that was based on the older and smaller A5M Claude which the Kido Butai had recently relegated to second-line status. After the PH raid, the carrier with the largest number of operational fighters would likely have been the Shokaku which still had 16 Zeros in flyable condition. If you use that air group to fly to Maui that means Maui will have actually less fighter planes on hand than Oahu does accounting for historical losses.

The remaining strength of land-based Zero squadrons in Asia would have been about 90 with the Tainan and 3rd Kōkūtais in Formosa and 25 with the Yamada Detachment in Soc Trang, Vietnam. However, these weren't carrier-trained. In an effort to make sure that the Kido Butai had the full air strength it needed, the Japanese stripped the Zeros and most of the carrier-trained pilots off the light carriers Ryujo and Zuiho, leaving them with the older A5M Claudes and second stringer pilots. The light carrier Zuiho actually ended being left in home waters on December 7th to train up, as its fighter air group was not considered up to standards anymore after all this ransacking.

The Imperial Army Air forces were active in SE Asia as well, but were mostly concentrated over Malaya, Hong Kong and Burma and weren't too keen on assisting the Navy. Plus, the IJA Ki-43 Oscar wasn't quite the long-distance performer that the A6M was.
it remains a fact that they used carrier planes on land in the Solomons. That means that it's possible.

If the groups were only 18 zeros per carrier, then two carrier's zeros would suffice.
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Re: A Japanese invasion of Hawaii

Post by Curtis Lemay »

Torplexed wrote: Wed Dec 07, 2022 12:44 pm Yes, and the moment those Zeros touch down there will be drums of high-octane fuel and stacked crates of 20mm and 7.7 mm ammo waiting by the runway for them along with the trained ground personnel ready to pump fuel, tune engines and patch holes. They'll be flying CAP in no time. Because we all know from reading our history that in an opposed WW2 amphibious op every item rolls straight off the boat, right there where you need it, at the very the moment you need it and nobody ever gets lost or gets landed in the wrong place. :roll:
The APDs return, along with the delivery of the ground crews a few hours after the raid begins. About 5000 tons of supplies in total, but only about 50 tons necessary for a mission to Oahu.
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Re: A Japanese invasion of Hawaii

Post by Curtis Lemay »

Buckrock wrote: Wed Dec 07, 2022 3:25 pm It would have been worse than that for the Japanese as in this scenario both the USN CVs aircraft would be operating from ashore as SOP and most if not all based at Luke Field on Ford Island, an airbase that the Japanese did minimal damage to on Dec 7th, mainly due to its huge size as well as the concentrated defensive AA available in the area. The two CVs combined would have had about 36 fighters ashore and after that it would come down to how many the Japanese could put out of immediate action. Same for the 100+ SBDs/TBDs that would also have been ashore in this scenario.
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