Drama on the Danube (SI DLC) AAR (Beethoven Soviets vs Malyhin Axis)

[Joel Billings]

Turn 14 (Nov 19 – Nov 25)

Weather has fallen into the standard pattern of snow in the far north and Yugoslavian mountains, and rain with mostly light mud in the rest of the front (with heavy mud mixed in). Several new German divisions appeared in the north, but it appears there were not enough units to form a solid front in the north and protect Vienna. The Soviet and Rumanian cavalry in the north infiltrated through the gap in the line, while a Tank Corps moved along the north edge of the map. Another Tank Corps moved up but was held back as there was not much more to be done here. Elements of both the 18th Army and a few units from the 7th Guards Armies finished off the Axis pocket in Slovakia, while the rest of 7th Guards Army moved up to support the move north of Vienna. Attacks by the 7th Guards Army, 6th Guards Tanks Corps, and 27th Armies from north to south moved the front line 20 miles to the west, to the suburbs of Vienna. Much of the 6th Guards Tank Army was able to rest this turn. Assuming Vienna is strongly held, these units are preparing for a rapid movement north of the Danube in a move toward Linz. In conjunction with a move by the 27th Army south of the Danube, these forces should be able to encircle Vienna within the next couple of weeks. The 53rd Army faced some opposition south of the Neusiedler See, but continued its advance.

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Just to the north and south of Lake Balaton, 57th and 46th Armies pursued the retreating Axis forces. 4th Guards Army advanced west of Pecs, and almost isolated the 7th SS Mountain Division (it will be able to save itself for at least another turn). It looks like the mostly Croatian Axis forces are trying to form a line along the Drava River northeast of Zagreb. Soviet units were able to get across the river due east of Zagreb. The rail line was repaired up to Osijek, and in a massive airlift, over 600 tons of supplies were flown in.

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The 2nd Bulgarian Army continued it’s advance west of Belgrade, while Bulgarian I Corps, assisted by several Yugoslavian divisions, continued its infiltration around Sarajevo. With no opposition, Yugoslavian forces advanced up the coast toward Split.

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The Soviet 5th Air Army with just over 800 fighters and bombers took to the air to support the attacks around Vienna. The Axis air forces with almost 600 mostly German aircraft, primarily based near Vienna, rose up to meet the challenge. This mostly German effort included many desperate bomber sorties in support of German ground forces. Losses were high for both sides, with Soviet pilots getting the best of the A2A battle, but taking higher aircraft op losses due to the greater distances they had to fly. The Soviet 17th Air Army, also with around 800 aircraft, supported Soviet attacks from Lake Balaton south, and took much lighter losses as it faced only a few German air units. The total losses for the entire turn are shown below, although 95%+ of the losses were taken during the Soviet ground phase.

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[malyhin1517]

At turn 15, after the Soviets came close to Vienna, the delivery of supplies to the depot completely stopped. Due to the lack of sufficient forces for defense, most of the combat-ready German troops were concentrated in the fortress of Vienna, where there is the necessary supply for several more turns of defense. The remnants of the Hungarian and Croatian troops, as well as a small number of German troops, occupied the rest of the front line. The Soviets are conducting active offensive operations, against which the Axis does not have sufficient forces even to create a stable defense. The interruption of supplies renders further defense pointless.

[Joel Billings]

Turn 15 (November 26 – December 2)

The Axis forces were unable to both defend Vienna, and prevent it from being cut off from the other NSS. Below is the final positions when we decided to end the game.

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My thanks to Malyhin for being willing to play the game out to the point at which Axis units would become isolated. This is a very tough scenario for the Axis player, especially one unfamiliar with the scenario, and it was even tougher in this case for reasons I’ll go into below. Thanks also to Beethoven for playing the first 5 turns of the game. Beethoven’s strong opening set the tone for the game. When I took over, it was simply a matter of pressing on and not letting the Axis forces recover from the bad situation they were already in.

This game started as a test game using a pre-release version of the scenario. Based on earlier test games, some changes were made to the scenario before Steel Inferno was released to the public. These changes were completed just after this game began. Beethoven’s opening moves in this game showed us that some additional changes were called for, and those have just been released with the 1.02.47 public beta update. As for what Beethoven did right, he encircled the 6th Army and kept it encircled with just enough forces to keep it pinned until its destruction. He pushed over the mountain passes into Transylvania in force, while also using Romanian mobile units to link with the Yugoslavians south of the mountains. He used the Yugoslavian mountain divisions and Bulgarians to keep pressure on the Axis forces between Belgrade and Greece. Lastly, he sent Soviet forces quickly west south of the mountains, both in Romania and into and through Bulgaria. The speed of these advances took Malyhin by surprise. For his part, I think Malyhin focused too much on partisan reduction in the west, instead of realizing that the war was going to come to Yugoslavia very quickly. Historically the Germans ultimately escaped from Greece by fighting up the valley to Skopje and Pristina, and opening a corridor from Sarajevo to Pristina via Visegrad and I assume Raska. There are a lot of good German units in this area that can win in the open against the relatively weak Yugoslavian and Bulgarian units. Also, by getting more units just south of Belgrade, it is possible to keep the Soviet partisans to the west isolated. Another benefit of a quick push east from Sarajevo would have been the ability to keep more of the partisans isolated, even if the partisans near Belgrade were able to link up. I didn’t see any attempt to push east from Sarajevo. While reduction of some of the partisans in the west is a good thing, it can’t become a priority. Even if some of the partisans are able to temporarily link and become supplied, cutting them off during the Axis turn and isolating the hexes before making attacks, makes for easier Axis attacks. In the north, the Hungarians appear stronger than they are. The rough terrain inflates their defensive CV values, but in reality, they can’t hold by themselves against strong pressure.

All that said, that Beethoven’s movements were as quick as they were in the first 4 turns, even quicker than the historically rapid advances, made us consider whether we were missing something in the scenario design. If so, the question was, could something be done about it? In addition, the mobility of the Yugoslavian partisans was something that had already come up in prior test games.

The changes made in the release version of the game, but not in time for this play through, included:
* Added more inaccessible mountain hexes - Improves German ability to make a defensive line in Yugoslavia with some more chokepoints
* Opened up Friuli map region in NE Italy (Udine and Trieste) with some additional partisans, but also additional German units in the area, some frozen.
* Added 18 additional small Axis anti-partisan security units, mostly in the far west.
* Set Bulgarian 5th Army and I Corps to maximum fatigue to represent chaos and confusion.
* Added a house rule that no Soviet non-Bulgarian units may move into Bulgaria before turn 4.


Here is what the original version of the scenario map looked like:

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And here is what the released version of the scenario map looks like:

new scenario.jpg (1.73 MiB) Viewed 2380 times

After receiving tester feedback, Trey felt it was reasonable to make more of the mountain hexes impassable. This makes it a bit easier to contain the Yugoslavian partisans in some areas, especially given that the mobile partisan units are considered mountain divisions and thus had very good mobility in the mountain hexes (too good). Trey had always wanted to add in northeastern Italy, and in doing so, he also added in many additional security units. These aren’t offensive units, but they can free up some of the better units from their anti-partisan duties, especially important as the Soviet forces reach Yugoslavia. A lot of thought also went into trying to deal with the Bulgarian situation. Trey was trying to deal with a very unusual situation where a country was engaged, but in the process of switching sides. The uncertainty of what Bulgaria was going to do needed to be accounted for in their unit strength. Trey decided that fatiguing the Bulgarian units in Yugoslavia was the easiest/best thing that could be done to reflect the impact on these units. There was also the question about why the Soviets didn’t move through Bulgaria quicker than they did historically. Historically, once the Soviets entered eastern Bulgaria, they were content to let the political situation in Sofia resolve itself. Things looked to be headed in the right direction, and there was no need to deal with trying to have the Soviet Army and Bulgarian Army intermingle during this time. So we determined at this point to add the house rule preventing Soviet units from entering Bulgaria until turn 4. None of these changes existed or were used in the AAR game.

As this game developed, we concluded that these changes that had already been made did not go far enough. Beethoven had shown the benefits of railing units quickly through Bulgaria (proving again why it’s important to have good and innovative players as testers). Malyhin was correct in saying that there should be more limitations on the rails in Bulgaria, given that there were not only political issues to be resolved, but issues with differing rail gauges that made seamless rail transit much too generous. In fact, we also started to become aware of just how much the National Supply sources in Bulgaria (necessary to prevent isolation of Bulgarian and Yugoslavian units) were impacting the Soviet advance. In addition, the issues involved in forming a working coalition on the ground of Yugoslavian, Bulgarian, Romanian and Soviet units was probably being glossed over and made too easy. Trey and I started to look into what could be done by changing the scenario, and what might be possible with a few more house rules. Malyhin also rightly pointed out that the Axis player had no way to repair rails that were damaged by partisan activity. This was the easiest item to deal with, as several rail repair units were added to the scenario in the 1.02.47 version, but set to be removed late in the scenario so that players could not disband them to gain replacements.

Trey came up with the idea of making the border area between Bulgaria and Romania impassable until the Bulgaria switches sides event happens. Not only would this reinforce the house rule preventing Soviet entry into Bulgaria until turn 4, it would prevent Bulgarian depots from directly supplying Soviet units in Romania with supplies. In addition, we realized we could lower the freight levels of the Bulgarian NSS depots so they wouldn’t be able to supply very large amounts to the Soviet player throughout the game. As the AAR game went on, I was surprised with just how much freight was pumping out of Bulgaria through the rails to Belgrade and further north. So the freight levels were lowered for the Bulgarian NSS’s. As for the political and rail issues, we came up with two additional house rules to improve the situation:

* Before turn 6, no Soviet units may use rail movement in Bulgaria or Rumania.
* Before turn 6, for the Soviet player, only Soviet Bulgarian and Yugoslavian units may enter Yugoslavia and Greece.

The first deals with the difficulties involved with integrating the various nationality rail services such that Soviet combat units could actually use rail movement in this area. The second deals with the issue of the Soviet Army having to coordinate it’s entry into Yugoslavia with the partisan forces, as well as compensating for the still too generous supply situation in Romania for the Soviet units that are able to immediately utilize the Romanian rail net and receive freight into Romanian depots from Bulgaria.
With these additions in the 1.02.47 version of the H2H scenario, the added Axis rail repair units, the impassable border hexes, and the additional house rules, we believe the scenario will do an even better job of simulating the complex situation that existed in the late summer of 1944. Although still a challenging situation for the Axis player, it should better balance the scenario.

Of course, house rules are suggestions, and players can decide for themselves which, if any, they agree to follow. We realize the list of house rules is long, but using all of them would yield a more historically correct scenario. For those wanting to minimize the house rules, while retaining the most important benefits, my recommendation is to use just these four from the current scenario description list:

3. Before turn 3, no actions should be taken with Bulgarian Air
Force units (no ADs, no movement, etc.).
4. Before turn 4, Bulgarian ground units outside of Bulgaria may
only move and attack in NE, E, and SE directions, towards Bulgaria.
6. Before turn 6, no Soviet units may use rail movement in Bulgaria
or Rumania.
7. Before turn 6, for the Soviet player, only Soviet Bulgarian and
Yugoslavian units may enter Yugoslavia and Greece.

Now that the Romanian-Bulgarian border is blocked until at least turn 4, these are sufficient. Other limits for both sides on some of the movement of units, while realistic, may be more than you’re willing to try to remember and self-enforce. It should be much easier to just use these 4, which focus on the very unusual situation in Bulgaria, and the limitations that the game engine places on Trey’s ability to fully simulate the historical situation. Of course if you’re playing against the Soviet AI in the AI version of this scenario, I recommend you try to follow house rule 8 that puts limits on the use of some Axis units. It will make any victory over the AI that much sweeter.

In conclusion, I want to thank Trey for creating this scenario. It took a lot of ingenuity on his part to figure out how to simulate a very unusual situation. Thanks to the testers who provided feedback on the scenario, and special thanks to Malyhin for his part in this AAR. We hope you enjoyed it, and I hope you get a chance to enjoy the scenario yourself sometime.

[malyhin1517]

The game ended at turn 16 with the surrender of the Axis.
All Axis units are in isolation. The next game is of no interest.

[malyhin1517]

Regarding my mistakes: I tried to break through the corridor from Greece to Belgrade, and not to Sarajevo, since the corridor to Belgrade was originally there and I just kept it. However, it was reliably closed by Beethoven already at the 3rd turn by a large number of Yugoslav mountain divisions, and at the 4th turn, Soviet troops entered Yugoslavia and surrounded Belgrade (according to home rules, now this should happen from the 6th turn). From that moment on, I no longer had the opportunity to open a corridor from Greece. Until that moment, I had no free troops on the map to help break through the corridor to Greece from Belgrade. The troops in Yugoslavia were pinned down in battle and I could not pick them up due to the lack of other combat-ready troops, although perhaps I really had a chance to break through from Sarajevo. But the road to Belgrade seemed more convenient. I am sure that even if I tried to break through from Sarajevo, I could not withdraw troops from Greece in this situation.
In general, in this scenario, the Germans have no chance of winning. Their forces are surrounded, there are almost no reserves, it is impossible to create a new line of defense after breaking through the front in Romania. However, I am sure that if you play this scenario several times, the German player will find a way to play better than me. Especially given the declining ability of the Soviets to move quickly by rail and receive excess supplies from Bulgaria. Also my personal opinion is that the Yugoslav mountain divisions are too mobile. Perhaps it is better to remove the mountain status from them. Otherwise, taking into account the fact that almost all security brigades are in a static mode in the fortresses, then 3-4 turns pass from the withdrawal from the fortresses, during which the Soviet troops already have time to reach Yugoslavia.

[Joel Billings]

Yes, you had a tough situation. I'd say that it's important as the Axis player to know which units are frozen for the first few turns. You can find this info by loading the scenario in the editor and looking around. You will notice that mostYugoslav and Bulgarian units are frozen on the first few turns. There is an opportunity (made easier with the new impassable mountain hexes and fatigued Bulgarians), to move in such a way to open the corridor through Skopje, while staying away from many of the frozen units. That can be done on the first few turns, as well as starting a drive from Sarajevo right away. You don't want to spend time chasing Bulgarian/Yugoslavian units that aren't obstructing the main goals. The drive should be from Thessaloniki to Stip to Skopje (hit by units from the north) to Pristina to Raska. As more units arrive in Greece, they can hold off the units that unfreeze while the better units reduce the units they face and start to shuttle north. As well, actions against most of the western partisans should be holding actions, with some attacks by the stronger holding units to reduce the partisan units and free up movement corridors where possible. Keeping as many partisans isolated as long as possible will help make all of this easier. Most stronger units should move east, with some attacking partisans as they go. It's a massive shuttle action as you migrate units east to reach Belgrade and try to hold the corridor south, as well as preparing to face the Soviets when they arrive (now later with the house rules). This is not easy, but in my opinion it's what makes the scenario fun and challenging. Playing the Ai you can practice some of these things. The AI is no way close to a good human player, but it also doesn't face the limits and house rules, so it will give you a challenge of its own.