How to Alternate Your Counter-Factual History Assumptions

[Zovs]

After reading through countless pages of proposed alternate, or counter-factual ideas (see the Spain and Turkish debacle and the aborted Perl Harbor invasion) I found this interesting proposal in The Europa Magazine No. 24, Vol. V, No. 2, dated 1992.

What follows is in my mind the proper way to setup an Alternate (or counter-factual or hypothetical) Scenario. The person proposing such a thing should have (and be responsible) for all the meaty details, alternatives, parameters and back up his theory, assumptions and suggestions with as much technical and micro detail as possible.


THE GREAT WESTERN WAR
A Europa Alternate History Scenario

By Mark Pitcavage

World War II was won by the Allies the day Adolf Hitler made up his mind to turn to the East without having completely defeated the Western Allies. It was to Slavic Eastern Europe that Hitler looked for the future of the Aryan race; the campaign against Great Britain, France, and the Low Countries in the spring and summer of 1940 was merely an attempt to remove an obstacle from his drive towards the East begun with the German invasion of Poland the previous fall.

While Hitler had in mind the extermination or enslavement of the peoples of the East, his attitude towards the Western powers remained strangely ambivalent. He held them in contempt as decadent and spineless, but he nevertheless had a measure of respect for them, especially Great Britain, against whom he had fought in the First World War for four years. Great Britain was one of the few countries to which Hitler in his vision of a German—dominated Europe was willing to grant a measure of autonomy. The German dictator’s ambivalent feelings towards Western Europe manifested themselves in important ways. He granted France armistice terms that at the time seemed quite harsh, but when compared to the conditions under which other conquered nations suffered were mild indeed. And after France’s surrender, Hitler proposed a peace settlement with Great Britain.

Great Britain, however, now under the leadership of Winston Churchill remained resolutely committed to the destruction of Nazi Germany. This unwavering stance posed huge problems for the German military, because the German military was ill-configured to damage the island nation. The Navy, despite an ambitious naval building plan (the 2 plan), had been unable to hold its own in resource allocation battles with the German Army and the Luftwaffe. It had also neglected submarine development. Moreover, substantial elements of its small surface fleet had been destroyed or damaged in Germany’s strategically dubious campaign against Norway. The Luftwaffe and the Army were similarly hampered; the Luftwaffe had no effective long-range fighter or heavy bomber, and the Army had no amphibious doctrine or even much experience in combined operations.

German unpreparedness for a ‘war against Great Britain became evident at the close of the Battle of France. Hitler ordered his staff officers to draw up plans for an invasion of England, but no serious planning took place. On the contrary, the different services, each realizing the impracticality of such operations, concentrated on passing the buck. The Army drew up plans for a huge invasion, which it well knew the Navy could not launch, while naval officers suggested a very small invading force, which they knew the Army would not accept. This refusal to grapple seriously with the problem created an opening which the ambitious Hermann Goering cleverly exploited, arguing that his Luftwaffe could insure victory by itself.

This notion was appealing to Hitler, because it meant he could direct his energy once more to the East. This proved a fatal mistake, however, as the Luftwaffe showed itself inadequate to the task, and Great Britain hung on to insure that Germany would fight a two-front war, one it could not win.

The events described thus far lead to an intriguing counter-factual question: what if Hitler had recognized the danger presented by the West? What if Nazi Germany had made a more concerted effort to defeat Great Britain?

This article presents a hypothetical Europa scenario which explores these questions. My original goal was merely to create more of an interest for the Europa game Their Finest Hour. Many Europa players have told me that they don’t play TFH because a successful invasion is so unlikely and the air elements are not interesting enough by themselves. I decided to try to come up with some historically plausible ways to increase the chances for a successful invasion. That way, players would have a chance to fight on the landing beaches, in the hills, and so on. What I eventually wound up with, however, was a much broader and more exciting proposition: a way to link the Europa games The Fall of France, Spain and Portugal, and Their Finest Hour together into a coherent whole, a whole that is more challenging and exciting than each component part is standing alone.

This scenario, ”The Great Western War," is based on the proposition that Hitler remained committed to defeating completely the Western Allies before turning to the East. This proposition has two parts. First, Hitler conserved his naval forces (taking the chance that either the Allies would not violate Norwegian waters to interdict Swedish ore shipments, or that he could defeat the Western Allies before the effects of interdiction could be felt). Second, that Hitler saw the need to eject the British from Gibraltar as quickly as possible, in order to slow British units in the Mediterranean from reinforcing the Atlantic and to insure Axis freedom of movement between the two bodies of water. To do so, Hitler orders that the 1940 spring offensive be directed against Spain as well.

The scenario has one additional counter-factual twist. Historically, under the Armistice conditions between France and Germany, France was supposed to deliver all of its naval vessels into German hands, where they supposedly would be destroyed or rendered useless. The French were under no illusions that the Germans would keep their end of the bargain, and so they kept the major elements of their fleet in North Africa, where the British, still fearing the possibility of Axis control, attacked or disarmed most of the French ships. This scenario postulates that the French would be more willing to stand by the Armistice terms, and would attempt to deliver portions of the French fleet into German hands.

”The Great Western War" has a number of things to offer. Perhaps most importantly, it makes the confrontation between the Axis and the Allies on the continent much more challenging. The Axis not only have to defeat an additional country, Spain (and maybe Portugal as well), but they must finish the campaign as quickly as poSsible in order to have forces available for an invasion of Great Britain. The scenario also makes an invasion of Great Britain possible, if the Axis player has performed well, thus allowing combat in an area which rarely sees it in Europa play. I must confess that since I prefer land operations, for me the naval elements of this scenario are merely means to an end. However, I think other people might well appreciate the more challenging naval balance in this scenario.

Before I outline the scenario, I must present the reader with two caveats. The first is that these three games were not meant to be linked together in this way. While doing so will not make them explode. there might be a few rough edges. I have attempted to smooth all that l have found, but inevitably a few will creep in undetected. In such a case, simply use common sense. The second warning regards the research done for this game. I tried to find the composition and whereabouts of the French and Spanish navies in May-June 1940, but ran into a number of dead ends. Most sources I found contradicted each other, which proved very frustrating. In several cases, I have just had to make an educated guess.

I would like to acknowledge the use of several articles written for various Europa publications; they all provided useful information of one kind or another. These articles include: ”Spain and Portugal Comments: A Reply by the Designer,” by John M. Astell, EGSC Newsletter #2; ”Europa Afloat: A Review of Ships and Navies, Parts One and Two," by A. E. Goodwin, E.T.O. #5 23-24, "Britain: The Middle East, Sep l 1939 to Dec I 1940,” by John M. Astell, Europa: Nuts & Bolts #3; ”More Missing Europa Units: The Royal Marines,” by David Hughes, Europa #75; ”The Spanish Army at the End of the Monarchy," by John J. Gee, Europa #72. In addition, I would very much like to thank David Hughes and Rick Gayler for the great deal of help and patience that they blessed me with.

Scenario Length:
May I 1940 to Dec II 1940.

Participants:
Axis—Germany, Italy.
Allies—France, Great Britain.
Neutral (Until invaded, then join Allies)—Belgium, Ireland, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, and Switzerland.

Victory Conditions:
Axis—By the end of the game, control the following cities: Paris, Madrid, Gibraltar, and two major city hexes in Great Britain.
Allies—Prevent the Axis player from achieving his victory conditions.

Spanish: Spain begins the scenario at neutrality watch. Partial mobilization begins if during the initial phase of any Allied player turn three or more German division-sized units are within eight hexes of the Spanish border. Full mobilization is triggered if during the initial phase of any Allied player turn 30 or more Axis REs are within eight hexes of the Spanish border, or if any Axis forces invade Spain. Upon any type of mobilization, all Spanish units can move anywhere within Spain. They cannot leave Spain, except to go to Spanish territories (note that there is no Axis surprise turn when invading Spain). In addition to the air and ground forces, place the Spanish fleet. For purposes of this scenario, the Spanish fleet consists of the six light cruisers for which there are counters, thirteen Churruca-class destroyers, three Alsedo—class destroyers, two Huesca-class destroyers, two Ceuta-class destroyers, seven torpedo boats, and one Sotello destroyer escort. The Allied player should assign all flotilla-based craft as evenly as possible given the counter mix, with no more than four ships per flotilla. Ignore the submarine counters in the mix.

The Allied player should then randomly divide the ship counters into four piles as equal as possible in number, without looking at the counters. Take one pile, and remove it from the game; this naval units based represents on Mahon on the island of Menorca, which can have no effect on the game. Take the other three piles and place one each at El Ferrol (23:0313), Cadiz (23:3528), and Cartagena (2324410). The Allied player can then look at the ships, but the Axis player may not (the Allied player may wish merely to record what ships are at what port). Note: Spanish ships may not move or fire when under Spanish control; they exist merely to be captured or destroyed.

German: The German player begins with the forces listed in the Fall of France order of battle. He receives all Fall of France reinforcements, and all Their Finest Hour air reinforcements. The Jul I 40 turn, TFH rule 42A is in effect for all German reinforcements. The German player receives TFH ground reinforcements only if they are not already in play.

German naval reinforcements are handled somewhat differently. Rule 428 of TFH is in force, with the following modifications, to simulate the absence of a Norwegian campaign. When rolling the die to have ships appear earlier, treat all rolls of 1 as a roll of 2. Additionally, all vessels listed as being possibly available for play (the Lutzow, Spee, etc.) are available for play. Roll a die for each vessel or flotilla: on a 1-3 it is available Jul I 40; on any other roll, it is available Aug I 40.

British: The British use their FoF OB to determine British forces in France. For British forces in Great Britain, as well as all British land reinforcements, see the attached British Great Western War (GWW) OB.

In addition, the British also have available at start the following units, which were not sent to Norway (list showing the 15th, 24th Gds, 146th and 148th Infantry Brigades, plus the 6th heavy AA brigade)

In addition, the British player may add to his At Start forces in England the following units (list showing the 101st, 102nd, and 103rd Royal Marine Brigades).

The British player may call for the special naval reinforcements as per TFH rule 398, but if they call for any ships at all, the German player need only capture one British major city to win the game. Additionally, if these reinforcements are called for after the Germans have captured Gibraltar, roll 1 die. On a 1-3, they appear two turns later, on 4-6 they appear three turns later (as opposed to the one turn specified in the rules).

Optional: Owners of Western Desert are recommended to use the following optional British reinforcements. Had the Germans made a concerted effort to take Gibraltar, the British would have made every attempt to defend it, including stripping forces from the Middle East (since the loss of Gibraltar would have made the Middle East much less defensible, anyway). If Germany invades Spain, the British starting on the following turn may draw upon the reinforcements listed below (i.e., if Germany invades Spain on Jun l 40, then the British may start shipping these units on the Jun ll 40 turn). No more than 6 REs may be shipped per turn, and they may only be shipped to Allied-controlled ports in the Mediterranean (if France has not yet surrendered, the Allied player may use French transport points to transport any or all of these forces). Any use of these reinforcements frees the Axis from the second major British city victory condition, in the same manner as use of the Mediterranean Fleet reinforcements. The forces available are (list showing the 4th and 7th Armor Brigades, the W Artillery Brigade, the 7th motorized Support Group, the W Construction Brigade and the 19th, 17, and 16th Australian Infantry Brigades).

Additionally, the British may send two Blen—1 and one Glad (air units) to Gibraltar.

French: The French player sets up and receives reinforcements as per FoF. He also receives at start those units listed in the French Europa mobilization charts as having been sent to Norway (they are set up in the hexes they occupied before their removal).

French units may enter Spain once it has been invaded; French colonial units being transported from Africa may go instead to Spain (subject to Italian intervention). Additionally, certain units stationed in Morocco may also go to Spain if Spain has been invaded. The Moroccan pool is as follows (big list of a lot of French Colonial divisions (four infantry and one mountain), brigades (two cavalry) and regiments (one tank, two infantry and one light armor)).

Up to 10 REs from this pool may be transported to Spain, using the French naval transport capacity in the Mediterranean. Note that some of these units are also available for transport to France. Like units transported to France, the units which are to be transported to Spain must be specified; they arrive on the following turn.

French ground units in Spain are removed when France surrenders, unless they are stacked with a British unit. If a French unit is stacked with a British unit, roll 1 die: on a roll of 1, the French unit does not surrender, but continues fighting, using British supply sources. In such a case, treat it as a British unit for the remainder of the game. All French air units in Spain surrender and are removed from play when France surrenders.

There is a lot more details with special rules and stuff and then the details of the extra, modified or added OOBs stuff.

[altipueri]

In a way it is why small tactical battles are better games than grand strategy games.

There is so much luck, good and bad, that affects outcomes.

Failed assassination attempts - there were about a dozen on Hitler before the war.

Accidental air crashes - Franco and Montgomery were not supposed to lead what they did.

Broken catapult meant Japanese fleet didn't spot US carriers near Midway

Operation Torch - would the French fleet go over to the allies or the Germans?

[Platoonist]

Broken catapult meant Japanese fleet didn't spot US carriers near Midway

Now seen as a myth. The late launch of the Tone's No. 4 scout plane because of the catapult problems and it's subsequent improvised search pattern actually led to the discovery of the US fleet earlier than it should have. The problems arose from the pilot's transmission that he had spotted only surface units, not carriers. However, the sighting came at the worst possible moment. Most of Admiral Nagumos' planes were currently raiding Midway and those in the hangar below were armed with land bombs. Because Nagumo suspected carriers in the sighting he needed time to rearm the planes below decks with naval ordinance and recover the Midway strike and do the same. Time he never got.

[warspite1]

Thanks Zovs, that is a blast from the past. I've still got all my Europa magazines and a load of Collectors Edition games in pristine, unpunched condition, just waiting forlornly for a series that will never be finished.....

Still angry at how the GRD Europa series debacle ended.....

I never did get the chance to own the Western Front (1940) or the Russian front games.... so irritating.

But back to the point, I think the fundamental issue will always remain. Is the 'what-if' being presented something one can buy into? So for example in this case, no matter how much detail is put into the scenario, if one fundamentally can't get past the idea of Hitler invading Spain, then its not going to be worth pursuing.

But some will be comfortable and some won't, end of the day it all depends on where a personal uncrossable line is drawn.

[Zovs]

Good points there Warspite!

Yeah I am helping with a tool to bring Europa back to life. I still love the series.

[warspite1]

Good points there Warspite!

Yeah I am helping with a tool to bring Europa back to life. I still love the series.

warspite1

Really?!?!? Well that would be welcome. Good luck with that Zovs - would love to finish the series before I drop off this mortal coil

[Lobster]

In the last 24 years many of the things in that article have been proven right, wrong or meaningless. I wouldn't base any scenario on it instead leaning towards more current works. To really get it right you would have to start the scenario as early as 1933 or at the latest 1936 to give Germany a chance to initiate in a meaningful way the mechanisms to acheive things like Sealion.

[AndySfromVA]

Would Stalin have sat on his hands while Germany's eastern defenses were drained to support its Western Europe offense? I think Stalin would have taken advantage and invaded western Poland and the Balkans.

[Zovs]

In the last 24 years many of the things in that article have been proven right, wrong or meaningless. I wouldn't base any scenario on it instead leaning towards more current works. To really get it right you would have to start the scenario as early as 1933 or at the latest 1936 to give Germany a chance to initiate in a meaningful way the mechanisms to acheive things like Sealion.

Your essentially missing the main point why I posted this article in the first place.

[Zovs]

Would Stalin have sat on his hands while Germany's eastern defenses were drained to support its Western Europe offense? I think Stalin would have taken advantage and invaded western Poland and the Balkans.

My understanding is not in 1940 and not in 1941, they were gearing for 1942.

[sPzAbt653]

The person proposing such a thing should have (and be responsible) for all the meaty details, alternatives, parameters and back up his theory, assumptions and suggestions with as much technical and micro detail as possible.

I can certainly agree with that. As far as wargaming, the more alternatives the better, for some even if they are silly.

I always liked this alternate history:
https://hitlertriumphant.wordpress.com/ ... on-sphinx/

I haven't read it in years but if I remember correctly it dealt with Germany focusing on the Mediterranean in order to bring England to the table. I did a scenario for Strategic Command based on this but at some point it got messed up by different versions and will no longer open. One day when I have a year I plan on recreating it, because that is a good system for strategic fun. I also have a TOAW scenario based on this, but it also needs to be updated to the latest. One of the points is, Stalin is not going to stand by and watch Hitler gobble up everything in Europe, so the more Germany conquers, the more Stalin leans toward making a move.

[sPzAbt653]

My understanding is not in 1940 and not in 1941, they were gearing for 1942.

I think Germany and Italy gearing for 1942 for sure, England wasn't totally convinced yet, France was happy with their Maginot Line, and the Soviet Union was confused as to how to reorganize after they saw how the Panzers worked. But Adolph didn't expect anybody to care about Poland.

There is another interesting alternate scenario, if Poland didn't happen until 1942 when Germany, Italy and the Soviet Union were ready. By then France would have had a different military leader and England would be more prepared.

[altipueri]

The Man in the High Castle https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Man_i ... igh_Castle

STOP PRESS

Franz Ferdinand Found Alive - World War One all a mistake.

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