Turn 15 update (2 turns remaining)
Welcome to the turn intended for the initial strike on Baku. It begins on a rather ominous note as the naval interdiction during the enemy air phase falls short. Although it just missed the mark (18 points when 20 were needed), the effect is as detrimental as if it never occurred. The heavy rain undoubtedly played a role, as our level bombers needed to be stationed at well-supplied airfields, placing them in the rain-soaked area. As a result, the number of sorties during the four days of the mission was inconsistent and roughly 50% less than expected in clear weather. Operational losses remained low, suggesting that weather influences losses mainly at the destination.
An apparent lingering Caspian Sea penalty on Axis Naval Interdiction (NI) is another factor. Despite capturing the port of Makhachkala on the Caspian, which has eliminated the Soviet naval interdiction bonus of +20 that previously made Axis NI incredibly difficult, it seems an Axis penalty lingers, with achieved values remaining low even considering the flown sorties. Moreover, unlike the Baltic and Black Seas, interdiction struggles to spread to adjacent hexes.
- map failed NI.png (1.83 MiB) Viewed 2602 times
The naval interdiction did successfully occur during our turn, despite some effective resistance from Soviet fighters. However, at this stage, it will only impact seaborne supplies to Baku, which, being likely well-stocked, won't miss them. Now, a major decision looms: proceed with the planned attack or not? The combat value ratio is borderline based on my earlier rule of thumb, and the task will surely be more challenging without effective naval interdiction.
Despite these factors, most ground units are in pretty good shape after two turns of rest, and some can't accumulate many more combat preparation points. If I don't attack this turn, I might only have one more chance to seize the city. Thus, I decide to stick with the initial plan and launch a spoiling attack this turn, aiming to reduce entrenchments and damage defending units, who should struggle to recover if I can resolve my naval interdiction issues.
- wiking division.png (518.04 KiB) Viewed 2602 times
The attack, featuring 10 divisions and ample support units, unfolds slowly, allowing me to observe many details. Immediately, the Soviets' combat value appears higher than German recon suggested (400+ vs. ~320). Despite equipping my units with over 1,400 guns for the assault, they have an abysmally low hit ratio. This might be due to a recent penalty for artillery attacks on port locations, as I've observed a similar effect in a later attack on Astrakhan.
- battle baku poor arty.png (200.32 KiB) Viewed 2602 times
Despite these challenges, the city is defended by only two rifle divisions due to the rapid German advance and the failed Soviet sortie. Also, the defense is led by Tyulenev, a less formidable leader compared to the excellent Balck overseeing the attack. German air support, particularly the formidable Bf110 fighter-bombers, is effective despite heavy flak, compensating for the artillery's poor performance. This enables the superior attackers (7:1) to clear the city with only moderate losses, which is a definitely a very pleasant surprise for me. I gave it a 40% chance, or less, to succeed this turn, and was fully ramped up for a follow-up on the last turn of the scenario. The Soviet divisions again surrender instead of routing, even though they were not isolated for retreat purposes (owing to the failed NI).
- battle baku.png (1.15 MiB) Viewed 2602 times
"Power always thinks it has a great soul and vast views beyond the comprehension of the weak" - John Adams
