Question about the combat planner

[Simon Edmonds]

As the topic indicates I have a question. I have attached a combat planner. It tells me that the odds are 0.729 to 1 and that the losses will be heavy and the probability of success is very poor. The problem is that this attack will be successful 19 times out of 20 and the losses will be fairly low. 19 out of 20 equates to an excellent chance of success and the average losses equate to moderate.
What am I missing? Why doesn't the planner reflect the correct probability?

Screenshot (27).png (829.75 KiB) Viewed 496 times

Screenshot (26).png (973.68 KiB) Viewed 496 times

[broccolini]

To funny. I couldn't tell you how many times the combat planner, or '" the naysayer" as I usually call it, has predicted a disaster that worked out fine. It doesn't seem to have all the information any more than the player does. So its making its guess, just as the player does, on less than perfect intel. It acts more like a panicky staffer that is often right (and should be considered on whether to pull the trigger or not) but it isn't always. Many times the naysayer has said "Don't do it! It will be slaughter! There's no chance!" , and it works out fine. One of the game designers can give you more technical detail on this but I think the planner is one of the more brilliant aspects of the game in that it NEVER provides certainty. It often gives flawed advise instead. Just like a human.
Better not to ignore it completely though.

[Curtis Lemay]

The planner doesn't know the defender's proficiencies, loss tolerances, support levels, or cooperation levels. It doesn't consider the attacker's proficiencies or loss tolerances.