The Sky’s the Limit- PBEM GC 41 jubjub (Axis) vs. M60A3TTS (Soviet)

[M60A3TTS]

Two years ago I stopped playing the Soviets and decided to go over to the other side.

Well that was fun, but since decided it was time to return to the fold.

Now two years away from playing one side equals having as much rust as an abandoned steel mill. Still, my opponent has not been active with the Axis recently either, so maybe there will be some balance here. Otherwise this could be an embarrassingly short game.

Since jubjub was instrumental in putting together a detailed Axis air plan for turn 1 a couple years ago, I thought it might be interesting to make the focus on this AAR one that covers the overall air war. That has a couple things going for it.

First, it’s never the focus of an AAR so this will be completely different.

Second and possibly as important, I won’t need to make a lot of maps and such to cover the detailed ground action. There won’t be a lot of discussion around logistics, generating wins for guards divisions, and so forth.

Fair warning, there will be considerable discussion about micromanaging the air component. If AI Assist or minimal involvement in the air war is your cup of tea, I suggest you slowly back away and move onto more interesting things. This AAR is not for you.

Second fair warning, this will be an AAR that looks at some game mechanics that seem pretty basic, but aren’t at least in my own view entirely clear or well understood. This has the potential to generate some lively debate, and the standard request here naturally is to keep it civil.

House rules:
No motorization
TB unlocked, with gentleman's agreement not to abuse it. Landings - no landings west of Sevastopol until it's been retaken. No para drops.

[tm1]

I have little experience with the Air component, letting the AI do all the work and then its really only the first turn where the Axis hit the Soviets pretty hard, but I think this will be quite interesting as I am always up for learning all aspects of this game, looking forward to it.
regards

[HardLuckYetAgain]

Alright, full blown air war chat room in this AAR . My cup of tea, although I don't drink tea ......

[M60A3TTS]

Week 1

To no great surprise, jubjub has a solid opening strike. The VVS is in shambles…well, sort of.



We still have functional planes.





And not all are obsolete.



First, the extent of the carnage.

Air losses 322 Axis to 4,521 Soviet. Approximately 36% of the VVS on-map forces were destroyed. Axis losses were a bit higher than one might expect. Perhaps that is some of the rust my opponent is showing.

No recon was flown by the Axis and subsequently no recon aircraft lost.

Axis attacks on airfields were conducted 54 times.

2,605 Soviet fighter and fighter bombers were lost in total.

1,924 Soviet fighters were lost during 38 airfield attacks. This accounted for 73.9% of all fighter losses during the Axis turn.

570 Soviet fighters were lost in 71 air actions. This accounted for 21.9% of all fighter losses during the Axis turn.

108 Soviet fighters lost, presumably when their airbases were overrun by Axis ground forces. This would account for 4.1% of all fighter losses during the Axis turn.

3 Soviet fighters were lost during the Soviet logistics phase, representing damaged aircraft written off as unserviceable.


1,814 Soviet (level,tactical,torpedo) bombers were lost.

809 Soviet bombers were lost while flying 72 unescorted ground support missions. This accounted for 44.6% of all bomber losses during the Axis turn.

757 Soviet bombers were lost during 18 airfield attacks. This accounted for 41.7% of all bomber losses during the Axis turn.

142 Soviet bombers were lost while flying 25 escorted ground support missions. This accounted for 7.8% of all bomber losses during the Axis turn.

90 Soviet bombers lost, presumably when their airbases were overrun by Axis ground forces. This would account for 5.0% of all bomber losses during the Axis turn.

16 Soviet bombers were lost during the Soviet logistics phase, representing damaged aircraft written off as unserviceable.

86 reconnaissance aircraft were lost, 49 as a result of 2 airfield attacks. 16 transport aircraft were also lost.

What remains of the on-map VVS.
7,957 aircraft, of which:
7,399 are ready
524 are damaged
34 are in reserve

Among these same aircraft:
3,730 are fighters or fighter bombers
3,256 are level bombers
362 are tactical bombers
224 are reconnaissance
279 are transport
106 are naval

A total of 153,632 men are supporting 128 active airbases.

There is much work to be done.

[HardLuckYetAgain]

Week 1


A total of 153,632 men are supporting 128 active airbases.

Very important numbers here.

[M60A3TTS]

Yes, I included that specifically for your benefit, given how you operated against your un-named opponent.

[M60A3TTS]

A quick review of the VVS organization.

Air units at the start and through Week 6 have these unit capacities:
67 all FFBs.
62 for all Tac Bombers, Recon planes, Pe-2 and SB-2 level bombers.
42 for these types: IL-4 DB-3B TB-3 Pe-8

Air National Morale
Turns 1-2: 60
Turns 3-11: 55

Focus right now is on fighters (and FFBs). Among front line commands we have in groups and aircraft:
Leningrad 23/720
Northwestern 9/129
Western 17/311
Orel 1/66
Kharkov 2/97
Southwestern 29/589
Southern 18/569

Among secondary commands:
Arkangelsk 1/56
North Caucasus 0/0
Moscow 18/774
Volga 0/0
Baltic Fleet 4/217
Black Sea Fleet 5/152

As a first step in reorganization, the more modern aircraft will bearing the burden of active combat operations while the lesser Polikarpovs remain largely unused. These latter units do not go to the reserves, for reasons to be explained later. For now, all fighters stay on the map.

Who goes where?

In keeping with past practices, North Caucasus Air Command assumes responsibility for the shattered air groups. These include groups with few to no aircraft. They may have any number of pilots, from 0 to 67, it simply depends on individual circumstances. All of these aircraft go to Restricted status so as not to receive new aircraft. With 67 planes per air group there simply are not enough surviving aircraft to go around, obviously.

Moscow Air Command receives many of the intact but obsolete Polikarpov groups from other commands. The aircraft are of limited use, but the pilots are not. This command also maintains a few modern fighter formations. Airfields are either started or expanded in the area to allow for the newly arriving formations to be accommodated. All Polikarpovs go to Restricted status so as not to receive new aircraft.

Arkangelsk Air Command receives a special group of formations. These are formations scheduled for disband on Week 12 per the reinforcement schedule. These go to a restricted status. They will also be receiving some newly trained pilots later. That would seem to make no sense now, but later it will.


Volga Air Command receives a very few number of formations due to go to the Northern Front on Week 12. A few new airbases are started.

Front line formations will have what remains of the intact modern fighter forces with MiG-3, Yak-1 and LaGG-3. This will not be a significant number of aircraft, but we have to fight back with something as we go about rebuilding the force.

All other type formations remain on the map for now, but they will be reduced soon enough.

[M60A3TTS]

Here is an overview of how things look at the end of the first week.

This is taken from the pilots tab on the Air Doctrine screen.



Among other things, this screen is meant to convey how many pilots would benefit from training in the Soviet Reserve. Pilots with an experience level below 50 typically will gain experience in the reserves per section 16.7.4.

"Air Groups in the National Reserve are considered to undertake training missions. For the Axis, in addition, each turn some units in the Western Europe TB will train. Training missions can result in an increase in pilot experience and a possible increase in the air group unit morale rating. If pilot experience is higher than that nation’s current air national morale, the chances for experience to increase through training are much lower.

In addition, pilots with experience ratings over 50 will have less chance to gain experience through training than pilots
with experience less than 50."

Interestingly, if you fly do-it-yourself training missions like an air superiority mission far from the front on the map, there is no evidence, at least from my own tests, to suggest that pilots with 50 experience or more ever gain additional experience. So what is described in the manual as "less chance" really seems like no chance. Something to keep in mind.

Here is the 124th IAP PVO that has since re-deployed.



As we can see, it has a full complement of 67 pilots but no aircraft. The most experienced pilot has a value of 68.

When the screen is initially opened it will display the first 30 pilots in a unit. That can be helpful to know when doing a quick count of pilots with experience over a certain level. Once sorted by experience level, we see pilot #30 is L. Bartkowitz with a value of 60.

Once we scroll down a bit, we can see who has experience 60 or more which is what we are interested in.



Pilot #38 is A. Dobovicsky with a value of 60. The least experienced pilot that is not shown here has a value of 53. So simple math tells us that there are 29 pilots with experience levels from 50-59. This means that there are no pilots here who would benefit from training in the Soviet Reserves.

[M60A3TTS]

Here is the 298 IAP.



Also redeployed to the North Caucasus Air Command. No planes. Since there are no pilots, obviously the morale, experience and fatigue stats mean nothing here. That will change with the addition of the first pilot to this unit, and that will come over time. This unit will become a primary front-line fighter group but now is not the right time.

[Shupov]

Looking forward to your AAR. It already looks like it will be the definitive treatise on Soviet air mechanics!

Haven't seen this much air war depth of analysis since Telemecus!

[EwaldvonKleist]

Hey M60,.would you mind posting a ground war overview now and then anyway?

Will follow your AAR

Looking forward to your AAR. It already looks like it will be the definitive treatise on Soviet air mechanics!

Haven't seen this much air war depth of analysis since Telemecus!

Really missing Telemecus, he would probably write the Axis complement to this AAR. Unfortunately he became unresponsive on all channels rather suddenly and was elderly, so it is unlikely we are going to read this

[M60A3TTS]

Hey M60,.would you mind posting a ground war overview now and then anyway?

Yes, I will on occasion.

[M60A3TTS]

Now lets talk about the structure of air-to-air combat.

Here is a screenshot from turn 1. We've all seen these sort of battle results hundreds or thousands of times.



So what is behind this exactly? Let's refer to the manual.

"Air groups are broken down into smaller “flights” to resolve air missions, to include air to air combat and bombing runs. Decision by fighters or fighter bombers to drop their drop tanks/bombs is made by each such flight. These flights can consist of 4-12 aircraft."

Let's not be concerned here with bombing runs or bombs and drop tanks and focus on structure of the fighter forces. Same screenshot as above minus the bombers.



More of a clear picture. Let's make it clearer still. Lines drawn between fighter groups and flight numbers per group.




Let's start with the Luftwaffe. Two groups were committed, I./JG 51 with 4 aircraft and III./JG 53 with 36 aircraft. We also see how III./JG 53 broke into 3 flights of 12 aircraft each. All of this fits with what the manual is saying.

Now for the Soviets.

41 IAP sent 2 flights of 16 aircraft. 2/41 IAP sent 2 flights of 18 aircraft. 126 IAP PVO sent 2 flights of 24 aircraft. Finally, 2/129 IAP sent 2 flights of 24 aircraft. Once again this is consistent with the manual as each flight consisted of 4-12 aircraft.

The air results pretty much speak for themselves. The Soviet fighters brought down 4 Luftwaffe bombers. The cost was 33 of 82 fighters, a loss rate of 40%. This is the sort of result we have all come to expect when air battles like this take place. Some is attributed to superior Luftwaffe aircraft, and some is credited to leadership differential. For the most part, the common explanation is the disparity in experience. The question we now need to ask is, how exactly is that experience level built into the structure of air-to-air combat.

[ncc1701e]

Super interesting, following.

[M60A3TTS]

Super interesting, following.

Glad you think so. And we are just starting to go down the rabbit hole.

[M60A3TTS]

To pick up where we left off...

How exactly is that experience level built into the structure of air-to-air combat?

Well, the manual covers much of the air component in Chapters 16-19. But we aren't going to look there.

Instead, we are going to swing over to Appendix H, Section 37.1.6, Air Combat.



We see here in these results a column with the skill of the flight, defined as the average experience rating of the pilots in the aircraft flight. But how does that make sense in the air combat result we showed earlier?



Flight #1 from III./JG 53 has a skill of 99. There simply is no fighter unit in the Luftwaffe where 12 pilots have an average experience level of 99. Let's have a look at a typical Gruppe on Turn 1.



Sorted by pilot experience, we see that the first group of 12 aircraft found in a potential flight have a pilot with the most experience of 99. But the group average is 91.5.

So when this flight flies with the assumed 12 aircraft, the skill level will be 99. There can be allowances per the manual that fatigue and morale can modify this number, but that's not important right now. What we have to assume here is that all pilots in the flight acquire the experience level of the pilot with the most experience of the flight. Thus, their average experience is indeed 99.

At this point we also need to raise a very important question. What happens in a situation where an air group has more pilots than planes? How is air combat structured over multiple air missions?

Our friend Michael Ironside can answer that one.



Sorry, Michael. Some of our boys will quit. But all of them must at least attempt to fight.

The "rule" so to speak, is this. Every pilot in an air group during a turn must participate in a mission before any pilot gets an opportunity to fly a second mission. Even if a few run or are forced away from combat, all have to be at least selected before we come back for a second helping. This is important as the order in which flights are selected are in order of skill level from highest to lowest. Again, keep in mind the skill level is the experience level of the pilot who rates highest in that category. Now if the unit runs out of fuel, or ammo, or available air miles, or even planes, then the unit is done for the turn. The cycle begins anew from top down on the following turn.

Let's now put this into an example of two opposing fighter groups to see how they would stack up against one another in combat with respect to skill.



The first 3 flights are cut and dried. We assume here 12 planes fly in all flights except where indicated.

Axis SL99 vs. Soviet SL77. A difference of 22.
Axis SL84 vs. Soviet SL66. A difference of 18.
Axis SL77 vs. Soviet SL66. A difference of 11.

Now the 4th flight should be Axis SL66 with 3 planes to the Soviet SL65. But it isn't always that way and it's not clear why. The important bit here is that the Axis gruppe is through it's first cycle where the Soviets aren't. Again, all pilots have to have had a chance to fly at least once in a turn. So flight #5 looks like this:

Axis SL99 vs. Soviet SL59. A difference of 40.

You can start to see the pattern here with regard to experience. Even though the Soviet unit has very favorable experience stats compared to what comes later with National Morale dropping later, this still becomes a very one sided affair for one reason.

The most experienced pilot within an air group carries the most weight both in single combat missions and often in multiple ones. Flight #1 always packs the biggest punch, and with 67 planes initially in a Soviet air regiment
a pilot with 68 experience really can't cover what the Luftwaffe pilots bring. For a 12-aircraft flight, a gruppe has 3 flights. So it can recycle for a second set of missions while the Soviets are still working through the bottom part of their formation. In this way the battles clearly favor the Luftwaffe.

The math is pretty basic for all Soviet fighter formations where 67 pilots are in a regiment and 12 aircraft flights are involved.

Pilots 1-12 Lead pilot is #1. flight #1
Pilots 13-24 Lead pilot is #13. flight #2
Pilots 25-36 Lead pilot is #25 flight #3
Pilots 37-48 Lead pilot is #37 flight #4
Pilots 59-67 Lead pilot is #59 flight #5

Put another way, Lead pilot #1 only impacts 18% of the air group (12/67).

We will close with this thought. As a Soviet unit loses a lot of planes in a turn, the Lead Pilot experience level within an air group can drop precipitously as more pilots are shot down and ones with lower experience levels replace them. Something to think about when setting the Pct Fly number in the Air Doctrine Screen. 20 is the default.

[FortTell]

Very interesting. The air war is a weakness of mine, and digging in its mechanics is enlightening.

[M60A3TTS]

At this point we can finally wrap up Week 1. Some attacks by surrounded units bring in air support that down a handful of additional German fighters and we end up with total air losses bumped up to 4,655 Soviet to 353 Axis.

Here is the pilots tab on the air tab of the commanders report.



At this stage we can totally disregard the far right number Miss to Max because the shortage of 6115 pilots is based on these super-sized 67 plane regiments. Once we drop to 32-plane regiments on Week 7 and then drop again to 20 on Week 12, we should be running a surplus without any issues.

The Trained Pilot Pool always starts at zero for Week 1 so nothing to see there either.

Now for the Free Pool there are 112 pilots. This pool is not well understood in WiTE2 in part because of a general lack of clarity in the manual. I refer to Section 16.7.5 Pilot Specialism.

"Since trained or untrained replacement pilots are not flagged with a specialization until they are assigned to an air group unit, pilot specialization only matters when an existing air group unit is disbanded and the associated pilots are returned to the pilot pool."

The words "returned to the pilot pool" is rather confusing because there are actually two trained pilot pools, trained and free. Pilots from the various air groups only enter the free pool under a specific instance, and that is when a unit is disbanded. That is really the only way that this pool fills at all.

This is very important to understand as we go forward. A new unit typically gets pilots from the trained pilot pool or are brought in as untrained depending on how you have your replacement settings. If the unit is disbanded, the pilots go to the free pool, tagged with their specialization, i.e. fighter pilot, recon pilot etc.

Now there is one caveat to this. Since free pilots are always considered trained, this free pool is always the first place trained replacement pilots will be drawn from to fill air group pilot requirements before the trained pilot pool is touched, so long as that specialization group needs trained pilots. If the free pool contains, say 10 recon pilots and no recon units need pilots, those 10 just stay in the free pilot pool until the air groups do need pilots, and then they are drawn down.

All of this will have a significant impact later because of another item about the free pool that is not well understood at all, but I'm going to save that for another time.

[M60A3TTS]

On to Week 2

The Axis air phase resulted in the loss of 22 recon aircraft vs. 2 Soviet fighters.

The Axis action phase resulted in the loss of 67 Axis aircraft of which 54 were ops losses. 30 transports were among the lost aircraft. The Soviets lost 60 fighters.

There was no action during the Soviet air phase.

The Soviet action phase resulted in the loss of 4 German to 66 Soviet aircraft. This included 46 SB-2 bombers.

270 pilots were trained this week and all were assigned to units. These pilots all are trained based on an Air National Morale level of 60 that will immediately fall to 55 next week. We won’t see 60 National Morale again until September of 1944.


The Leningrad Air Command has all of the modern fighters deployed. Only 130 operational MiG-3s in 5 regiments are available at the end of Week 2. It also has 2 Yak-1 regiments with only 42 aircraft between them as well as 3 regiments of LaGG-3s with 174 aircraft.

Much of the Level Bomber fleet heads to the reserves. Those numbers are 2,712 aircraft in 71 groups. Again, the fighters stay put on the map.

Tactical aircraft will over time convert many I-153BS regiments to IL-2 but this will take time. For now only 170 IL-2s are available on map or in the reserves.

Aircraft production is underway.



Airbase personnel drops to 116,068.

[M60A3TTS]

Week 3

Few casualties in the air war. 22 Axis to 9 Soviet to be exact.

Supplies being dropped by both sides. Axis recon also active across the front. Almost no GS missions undertaken by the Luftwaffe or VVS.

The trained pilot pool is emptied.

Ground support personnel drops to 94,750.

A few Air Groups arrive in the reserve but most have no aircraft. Until the formation size drops to 32 this will be something of a trend.

Quite a few on-map fighter formations to rebuild almost from scratch. Just need time.



73 Level Bomber groups are sitting in the reserves. This compares to 19 on map.

Only about 350 tac bombers on map. 80 of these are outdated biplanes.

There are 153 fighter groups on map and in the reserves. Almost 5,200 fighter pilots on the map.

Already in the early going we see that some newly arriving pilots are ill-trained and therefore little more than cannon fodder.


Among the fighter pilots, the most active command is Leningrad. Others will build up over time.