Here's a theory....

[DWReese]

........or, perhaps just the makings of a scenario:

Ukraine gets the US to send lots of their reserve weaponry to them to fight off the Russian invasion in their country. (Done)

Hamas attacks Israel, abducting women and children, knowing that it will get a world reaction because of the atrocities, and that it will get a response from the US. (Done)

The US responds by sending a carrier strike force to the eastern Med as a 'Show Of Force' against Hamas. (Done)

Iran 'allows it to be known' that they are behind the planning for the attacks on Israel. (Done)

US responds by sending a carrier strike force to the Persian Gulf as a 'Show Of Force' against Iran. (Being considered)

With the US now spread thin in so many areas, China attacks/invades Taiwan. (?????)


It's not too far fetched to think that China, Russian, Iran, and Hamas aren't collaboratively in this altogether.

Now, if you want some more fun, add a North Korean ballistic missile attack on Japan. (?????)

Is this real, or is it a simulation?

[BrianinMinnie]

The US Lets it be known that a old LA class Nuc cruise missile armed submarine has been leased to Taiwan since the 1st of 2023(????)

[DeHav]

Russia's involvement is obvious. It's a risky move but it could be a real game changer. The coming conflict will eat into US intelligence bandwidth and diminish the already thin supply of western materiel. Who knows how this might affect the election; I think we all know what a GOP victory means for Ukraine.

China isn't close enough with Russia to have put together a plan like this. Real events are far more accidental than Tom Clancy novels. They still may try to take advantage of the situation - as will DPRK - but I think an invasion of Taiwan remains extremely unlikely.

Firstly, Ukraine has changed the way that future wars will be fought. The new tactics and weapons haven't matured yet, so nobody really knows how to win a war against a motivated, well-trained and well-supported enemy. It would be really risky to draw up invasion plans when you know they'll be obsolete in a few months.

Secondly, IMO China still doesn't have the amphibious assault capacity. They'll have it in 5 years though, because they're building at an incredible rate.

This is a scary moment, but we have survived worse. Israel and Iran might trade blows, but it won't get out of control. North Korea will fire some missiles into the sea until someone gives them some food. China will make some noise but promptly shut up at the sight of carrier strike group.

[HalfLifeExpert]

Russia's involvement is obvious. It's a risky move but it could be a real game changer. The coming conflict will eat into US intelligence bandwidth and diminish the already thin supply of western materiel. Who knows how this might affect the election; I think we all know what a GOP victory means for Ukraine.

It would be risky for Moscow, but there are in a desperate situation, so maybe. I think this war may end up sinking Netanyahu for good (once combat is over), as this is a worse IDF/Intelligence failure than 1973, and that cost Golda Meir's government their jobs.

China isn't close enough with Russia to have put together a plan like this. Real events are far more accidental than Tom Clancy novels. They still may try to take advantage of the situation - as will DPRK - but I think an invasion of Taiwan remains extremely unlikely.

I agree, as great as Clancy's classic works(1984-early 2000s) were, I think it put into some people's minds that intentional events are more common than they really are.

Firstly, Ukraine has changed the way that future wars will be fought. The new tactics and weapons haven't matured yet, so nobody really knows how to win a war against a motivated, well-trained and well-supported enemy. It would be really risky to draw up invasion plans when you know they'll be obsolete in a few months.

Yes indeed. Certainly the ROC Military is studying everything it can get it's hands on about the Ukraine War. This may well be the most consequential conventional war for Military doctrines since Desert Storm.

Secondly, IMO China still doesn't have the amphibious assault capacity. They'll have it in 5 years though, because they're building at an incredible rate.

I completely agree. They don't have enough capacity yet to sustain such a cross-strait assault, which would be comparable (quite possibly exceed) the resources that needed to be mobilized for 1944's Operation Overlord. Besides, they won't be able to assemble all that shipping and load it without being detected by both the ROC and the US, not to mention the very short list of potential landing sites. I really doubt the PRC will ever get enough surprise, which is partially what allowed Overlord to succeed. And lack of surprise means more casualties.

It's my opinion that the PRC can pull off an invasion of Taiwan, but with the caveats that
A) It will involve heavy casualties for the PLA, which they have not faced since Korea in 1950-53. We don't know how their military structure or the people of China will respond to such casualties.
B) It will be a do-or-die operation for the CCP. They would have to pull off a total success or risk their leadership. Regaining control over the 'rebel' province has been a foundational principle of the CCP since 1949, and to achieve anything short of total victory would be a disaster in terms of prestige and legitimacy that they likely wouldn't be able to recover from.

This is a scary moment, but we have survived worse. Israel and Iran might trade blows, but it won't get out of control. North Korea will fire some missiles into the sea until someone gives them some food. China will make some noise but promptly shut up at the sight of carrier strike group.

The deployment of the Gerald Ford group to Bagel Station does make me more concerned that there's more going on that isn't being shared yet.
Personally, my hypothesis is that this unusually effective terror campaign inside Israel's pre-1967 borders, (in particular the hostage taking and the massacre of the music festival with 260 dead), conducted by one (potentially 2) of Iran's proxies, will be the casus belli for Israel to launch the long-awaited strike on Iran's nuclear facilities.

[DWReese]

You have some interesting observations.

Mine were made as a theoretical possibility, but your comments are made more like a declarative affirmation. I'm not sure that I COMPLETELY agree with everything that you have surmised.

Iran and Russia seem to have a much stronger relationship than anyone has thought. They are frequent trade partners for weapons, so I can definitely see something there. Plus, Russia could beat Ukraine if it could get other nations to force the US to put less into Ukraine because they are tied up elsewhere. So, I can definitely see Russia encouraging Iran to do things to cause the US trouble around the globe. Whether Russia benefits directly is irrelevant. If they could slow/limit the aid given to Ukraine from the US, then they will have attained something for Iran's efforts.

China may be seeing their window as closing for their taking of Taiwan. I believe that they see Biden as being weak, and they know they Trump is not, having dealt with him before. They see the polling numbers, so if they were to delay (as you said), that could place their readiness at a time when Trump is in power. So, if the US is tied up all around the globe right now, it could be enough for China to take a chance. Personally, I doubt that this would happen, but it is a possibility---Tom Clancy, or not.

The pressure at home (protests in America supporting Palestine) is what is being played in the news media in the US. It seems as though the anti-Israel faction is alive and well. (The US even has several people in congress that openly express their hate for Israel.) In fact, it may even get to a point where the US provides the same type of assistance to Israel as they do in Ukraine. This could further put a drain on the US.

Your summation may be completely accurate. That being said, no one saw this coming, and it is a far more advanced attack than ever before. The likelihood of this escalating is far greater than it dissipating at this point. I'm not saying that you're wrong, but Tom Clancy has in the past been more right than wrong.

If nothing else, it might make for a good new DLC with lots of scenarios dealing with some aspect here, and then another there, etc..

[gennyo]

that would be a good chance to check whether the 64bit buid could handle a world scale special military opeation

[SunlitZelkova]

I disagree with the view that Ukraine lessons make China more afraid to invade Taiwan.

While Taiwan is taking lessons from Ukraine, I think they are the wrong lessons. The reason Ukraine's defence was so effective in the opening stages of the war is because Russia assumed they would be carrying out an operation similar to the occupation of Crimea- confused, sporadic defence with a general collapse of the enemy.

China knows they will be attacking a fully armed and motivated opponent, not Vlad's fantasy of corrupt Ukraine with no back bone. Any Chinese assault on Taiwan will resemble Operation Desert Storm much more than the Special Military Operation.

Taiwan is also an island. Ukraine's defence has only been effective because it has a continuous flow of ammunition via land links to Europe. China could blockade Taiwan without any legal international opposition, because very few nations recognize Taiwan and thus it wouldn't be subject to UN laws that make a blockade a declaration of war (China doesn't even consider Taiwan a sovereign state and thus won't declare war, not unlike Vlad's position on Ukraine). With a blockade, arms shipments would not be able to make it to Taiwan without being protected by US Navy or JMSDF assets.

But it is unlikely the US would intervene, despite the rhetoric. Biden said it himself the day after the Ukraine invasion began- "we're nuclear powers, we can't be having this [combat between them]".

So, @DWReese, I agree China has an incentive to attack while Biden is president. They know he won't intervene, but can't be so sure about a future president.

As for China's current sealift capacity- it doesn't matter. They can bomb it into submission, have an air campaign lasting four years until they actually have enough ships to land the necessary forces for a ground campaign. There is really no rush for them. They probably have learned this from the Ukraine War- don't rush your grunts in.

If China does invade Taiwan, I don't think it will be because this has been coordinated with everyone. I think it will be reactive rather than the end goal of some massive scheme.

I also don't think North Korea will attack. As much as Kim probably wishes he could reunite the country, he knows the US and SK will level his regime if he makes a move with conventional weapons, let alone nukes.

[DWReese]

Not to sound like Tom Clancy, but here's a link to an article showing a connecting relationship between Russia and Hamas.

The article indicates that Russia is providing confiscated US-made weapons to Hamas, so that they could be used against Israel.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/russians-ham ... 00811.html

[TempestII]

I'm not sure where the idea that President Biden wouldn't intervene should the PRC attempt to invade or even blockade Taiwan has come from. While I understand that talk is cheap in politics, Biden has been clear that US forces would be far more involved in this possible flash point than Ukraine. The US military is literally gearing up to fight the PRC if necessary, and that's what most of its doctrine and equipment is now focused on.

https://www.reuters.com/world/biden-say ... 022-09-18/

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.co ... index.html

I would argue that in the very polarised current US political landscape, defence of Taiwan and standing by Israel are two policies that are generally bipartisan, with only a few fringe politicians who would vote against such measures. While the Republicans want to (shamefully IMO) turn off the tap to Ukraine, they do talk tough on China; heck, many of them say that aid for Ukraine should be going to the ROC.

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/04/1 ... a-00091601

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions ... kki-haley/

Trump is a bit of a wildcard should he get re-elected; it wouldn't surprise me either way if he chose to intervene or not. But isolationism certainly won't protect the US economy if America doesn't get involved - the effects on computer chips alone would be potentially catastrophic.

https://www.reuters.com/technology/top- ... 023-05-04/

It's also worth pointing out that the PRC blockade vs Taiwan option would only really be an effective in two situations:

1 - The US President and/or domestic politicians abandon the island, following isolationist policies (unlikely at the moment, but who knows with today's crop of politicians).

2 - China's armed forces are too strong for the US to defeat to the point where the PRC can win without having to engage in bloodshed. We know from the Chinese military build up that this is their preferred route, but the PRC may never achieve that level of superiority.

If either of these two conditions aren't met, then the US gets chance to deploy its forces into the region, nullifying some of the Chinese advantage; this is exactly what the PRC wants to prevent with its AD/A2 doctrine, otherwise the US and its allies will likely have the advantage. One of the reasons Desert Storm was so successful is because the Coalition had months to build up its forces in the Middle East, and pretty safe supply lines. China must prevent that, or it would likely loose.
Moreover, the scale of the PRC's invasion of Taiwan would be more like the Second World War's D-Day and invasion of Okinawa combined; it's unlikely they can pull it off even in the next few years should the US military work as advertised. Although losses would be heavy on all sides.

https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan ... 2003802966

https://www.csis.org/analysis/first-bat ... ion-taiwan

[Horchata]

Real life isn't a Tom Clancy novel, I highly doubt that China is going to invade now since they lack the sealift capacity and would prefer to further build up their navy and most importantly wait until Russia is done with Ukraine and the US is all out of steam in the form of money/weapons and public appetite for interventions.

In any invasion of Taiwan, China would need Russia to not be pre-occupied so that they can provide military advisors, intelligence data and able to sell china weapons and ammo to help them re-up after taking losses similar to how NATO helps with the Ukrainian supply situation.

China likes to project an image of strength but their military is mostly smoke and mirrors.
Their new "super" cruiser needed foreign help from Ukraine and others to make basic systems, the radars keep burning out and have to be repaired every time they return to base. Since China hasn't ever designed a naval radar and Ukraine any modern large radars besides the Pelican post 1991 I can't believe it would be anywhere near as good as the US ships will be facing. Their primary SAM is also a cheap knockoff of the land S-300.

AD/A2 is a bogus term invented by uninformed journalists who don't know about radar horizon and so they believe that an S-400 is a 400km circle of death.

I disagree with the view that Ukraine lessons make China more afraid to invade Taiwan.

While Taiwan is taking lessons from Ukraine, I think they are the wrong lessons. The reason Ukraine's defence was so effective in the opening stages of the war is because Russia assumed they would be carrying out an operation similar to the occupation of Crimea- confused, sporadic defence with a general collapse of the enemy.

China knows they will be attacking a fully armed and motivated opponent, not Vlad's fantasy of corrupt Ukraine with no back bone.

I wouldn't describe losing the main airport in the capital city to an almost unopposed airborne landing or a 40 mile convoy sitting there undamaged until they decide to just turn and leave as "effective defense", but yeah most of the Russian soldiers acted as though they were already home and that Ukraine would just roll over.

I forgot where I read it but apparently Russia tried the US Iraq War playbook bribing several generals and elites to change sides and ease the invasion, only they had cold feet and changed back at the last minute when things were already moving likely after US backing was assured and a Russian victory much harder. This would explain a lot as it is similar to a coup where it isn't about actual performance only the perception of who is winning.

The TB2 footage from the start of the war is because most of the Russian SAM systems weren't even powered up.
I have seen tons of footage of bizarre stuff like convoys with powered off wheeled TOR-M2U's and Buk-M2's just rolling by one after the other or soldiers parking their Tiger MRAP outside a store in Kharkov and lining up to shop for snacks and drinks.

Not to sound like Tom Clancy, but here's a link to an article showing a connecting relationship between Russia and Hamas.

The article indicates that Russia is providing confiscated US-made weapons to Hamas, so that they could be used against Israel.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/russians-ham ... 00811.html

There isn't any actual evidence of this happening besides "Ukraine said so" (that article is syndicated it isn't from yahoo news), and they have all the motivation in the world to lie and attempt to tie the two together as they've done with other things in the past like the missile hit in Poland in order to attempt to provoke direct US intervention.

Russia and Israel are pretty tight so it makes no sense why they would do something like that
It is more likely that Hamas is lying about the weapons or that they simply bought them on the black market like the Mexican drug cartels AT4's.

Russia isn't desperate and putin is too smart to do something fucking insane like that.

[Mickeys91]

Sending 1 aircraft carrier strike group off coast of Israel and maybe Persian gulf isn't really crippling the US. It still has a bunch of other Carriers strike groups it can form. Also Ford is in the Mediterranean . If China attacked it could still take week+ before Ford can get anywhere close to SCS. Also US has many other assets of heavy bombers and SCS strike aircraft and submarines and local islands including US allies like Japan, Australia and such who can have a go. China isnt attacking just on US navy. Many other stand off weapons available that would give China casualties in the 100 of thousands

[thewood1]

The biggest issue for the US in any war-like event is a crippling lack of munitions. The US Army is almost out of 155mm shells and is slowly depleting stocks of Patriot missiles in Ukraine, Saudi Arabia, and Israel. And its only going to get worse. A lot of the factories and components used to make those items are also used in everything from mortar shells to SM-2/3/6 SAMs. My son works for a company that supplies Raytheon and his company is working at 100% capacity and DoD orders are 3-4 years out just for replenishment.

And that is just supplying Ukraine and a few low intensity conflicts. Imagine the consumption of munitions for Israel invading Gaza and/or Lebanon. The US would have to execute a defense act to commandeer commercial components to even think about accelerating replenishment.

[DWReese]

And, how interesting would it be if China had supplied Hamas, and Iran with DF-21s or DF-25s and each launched an attack at these US carriers, and renders them incapacitated all at the same time. That could easily open the door for an unopposed Taiwan invasion. (Again, we are just talking here. I don't believe that this is happening. It's just a scenario plot, more than anything else.)

Finally, to those that have faith in US president Biden to actually support any country with actual troops, I don't see it happening. He may supply money (Israel and Taiwan already has that). He may supply equipment (both could always use more). But, in the end, unless the US is going to actually take action (which I doubt), then what are they really going to do? The fact that they are denying that Iran has any involvement in this sort of indicates that they are trying to run away very quickly from this. I sincerely believe that Israel and Taiwan have much less faith in US intervention than many of the others.

[SunlitZelkova]

I'm not sure where the idea that President Biden wouldn't intervene should the PRC attempt to invade or even blockade Taiwan has come from. While I understand that talk is cheap in politics, Biden has been clear that US forces would be far more involved in this possible flash point than Ukraine. The US military is literally gearing up to fight the PRC if necessary, and that's what most of its doctrine and equipment is now focused on.

If Biden didn't intervene in Ukraine on humanitarian grounds despite Russia having nuclear weapons, he's not going to against China in Taiwan, which also has nuclear weapons.

War against the PRC is probably more geared towards the possibility of China attacking an actual US treaty ally, like Japan (China has long desired to make Okinawa a puppet state) or the Philippines. They also can't rule out the possibility China will launch a "preemptive strike" on American military bases prior to attacking Taiwan. I've seen this possibility discussed in pro-China circles, even ones that think the entire point of the PRC's buildup is to keep American forces from intervening in Taiwan, which a preemptive strike would obviously defeat the purpose of.

But if China doesn't attack American military bases, just as Putin didn't, and issues a "you will face consequences you have never seen before in your history" type message like Putin did? They're not going to intervene.

Trump is a bit of a wildcard should he get re-elected; it wouldn't surprise me either way if he chose to intervene or not. But isolationism certainly won't protect the US economy if America doesn't get involved - the effects on computer chips alone would be potentially catastrophic.

200 nuclear warheads raining down on American cities would be much more catastrophic.

Realistically if war breaks out, it would make much more sense to try and replace that capacity immediately by building factories in the US, instead of fighting a war over it. If China bombs the TSMC factories in the opening stages of the war, there wouldn't be a reason for the US to intervene anyway beyond humanitarian reasons.

But Ukraine has shown the US won't intervene for humanitarian reasons if the enemy has nuclear weapons.

It's also worth pointing out that the PRC blockade vs Taiwan option would only really be an effective in two situations:

1 - The US President and/or domestic politicians abandon the island, following isolationist policies (unlikely at the moment, but who knows with today's crop of politicians).

2 - China's armed forces are too strong for the US to defeat to the point where the PRC can win without having to engage in bloodshed. We know from the Chinese military build up that this is their preferred route, but the PRC may never achieve that level of superiority.

If either of these two conditions aren't met, then the US gets chance to deploy its forces into the region, nullifying some of the Chinese advantage; this is exactly what the PRC wants to prevent with its AD/A2 doctrine, otherwise the US and its allies will likely have the advantage. One of the reasons Desert Storm was so successful is because the Coalition had months to build up its forces in the Middle East, and pretty safe supply lines. China must prevent that, or it would likely loose.
Moreover, the scale of the PRC's invasion of Taiwan would be more like the Second World War's D-Day and invasion of Okinawa combined; it's unlikely they can pull it off even in the next few years should the US military work as advertised. Although losses would be heavy on all sides.

They really would have no choice if they want to avoid a potential nuclear war. China isn't going to let cargo ships and C-17s land munitions on the island.

They don't really need superiority over the US to attack unmolested. Russia does not have superiority over NATO but has successfully occupied large swathes of Ukraine.

Real life isn't a Tom Clancy novel, I highly doubt that China is going to invade now since they lack the sealift capacity and would prefer to further build up their navy and most importantly wait until Russia is done with Ukraine and the US is all out of steam in the form of money/weapons and public appetite for interventions.

In any invasion of Taiwan, China would need Russia to not be pre-occupied so that they can provide military advisors, intelligence data and able to sell china weapons and ammo to help them re-up after taking losses similar to how NATO helps with the Ukrainian supply situation.

It would actually be preferable to attack while Russia is still in Ukraine. It would sow division in the US government between those who want to support Taiwan/drop Ukraine or do the difficult task of supporting both at the same time.

China does not need Russia's help. China actually has a larger spy satellite network than Russia, and thus doesn't need intelligence gathering support. China also has a strong indigenous defence production complex.

To put it simply, China is not Ukraine.

I wouldn't describe losing the main airport in the capital city to an almost unopposed airborne landing or a 40 mile convoy sitting there undamaged until they decide to just turn and leave as "effective defense", but yeah most of the Russian soldiers acted as though they were already home and that Ukraine would just roll over.

They didn't just "decide to leave", they suffered heavy losses and lacked proper logistics. The airport did fall initially, but was retaken, thus they had an effective defence.

And, how interesting would it be if China had supplied Hamas, and Iran with DF-21s or DF-25s and each launched an attack at these US carriers, and renders them incapacitated all at the same time. That could easily open the door for an unopposed Taiwan invasion. (Again, we are just talking here. I don't believe that this is happening. It's just a scenario plot, more than anything else.)

Iran actually has its own homegrown anti-ship ballistic missiles. I don't know if Hezbollah has them or the means to target American carriers.

[thewood1]

Hezbollah has ASMs and has used them several times. A least a few C-802s.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/INS_Hanit

Iranian ASMs are basically copies of Chinese missiles.

[Currahee150]

*sigh* ok I shouldn't wade into this as there are some...hot geopolitical takes but you know sometimes you have to argue with strangers on the internet every once in a while.

But if China doesn't attack American military bases, just as Putin didn't, and issues a "you will face consequences you have never seen before in your history" type message like Putin did? They're not going to intervene.

First of all, I'd like to see some actual sources backing this up because this is a hot geopolitical take. I can at least point to POTUS stating on air that the US would defend Taiwan, which while rapidly rolled back is at least makes one think that maybe making blanket statement that the US won't lift a finger to defend Taiwan is a comical oversimplification. Its thinking like this that's gonna actually lead to a global conflict. "Well since X didn't lead to US intervention, now we can do what ever we want!" Yeah, nuclear weapons seem like a big deterrent. Admittedly, so far they are. No nuclear powers have fought each other. However, I'm not sure thats an assumption that's going to hold true forever.
I could write a book on the fundamental differences between Ukraine and Taiwan (US national security interests wise), but the US has been geared toward defending Taiwan since the 1950s. Ukraine? Not as much.
Suffice to say, the logic that since the III US Corps didn't get deployed to defend Ukraine = "We'Ll nEvEr InTeRvEnE eVeR!" is laughable. Maybe you are right, maybe we won't...but that's not a bet I'd make

To put it simply, China is not Ukraine.

And neither is Taiwan Ukraine. Nor is Russia China. While we're at it, Travis Kelce isn't Taylor Swift either.

200 nuclear warheads raining down on American cities would be much more catastrophic.

Oh my! China has nuclear weapons! Its all over! Oh wait. So does the US. You know the functional word in MAD is "Mutual," right?

If China bombs the TSMC factories in the opening stages of the war, there wouldn't be a reason for the US to intervene anyway beyond humanitarian reasons.

Another gross oversimplification...at minimum Taiwan going under would mean the liberal rules based international order just got taken out back and shot, which for all of the grievances some people have with it, at least keeps the world somewhat stable. The US (and most of the rest of world) likes "somewhat stable" so again, there's a whole lot more at stake here than computer chips. But computer chips alone are important, and it is again laughable the US would shrug and just try and build them in the US. If you told the US populace "we either keep Taiwan or no one is going to have smartphone for 25 years"...Hell even some of social media influencers might support the war. (ok not the best analogy but you get my point.)

China actually has a larger spy satellite network than Russia, and thus doesn't need intelligence gathering support. China also has a strong indigenous defense production complex

You mention earlier that China would not be incompetent as Russia. And maybe you are right. But keep in mind the invasion of Taiwan would surpass D-Day in complexity, and was conducted by a coalition that had an awful lot of experience in working together jointly in amphibious operations. China has none of that experience, and will have to do so in against an opponent that has had decades to plan against in eventuality. Let me put it this way: if somehow through some freaky Friday scenario, the US was now China and had to invade Taiwan...lets just say that's not a fight I'm looking forward to given geography or the the trends in technology.
Also, the assumption that China would roll over Taiwan is another over simplification. Proximity and mass does not always equal speed. Everyone plans quick, short wars. They rarely ever end up that way.

Iran actually has its own homegrown anti-ship ballistic missiles.

Look, maybe they actually do. But these are the same people that threw some plywood on an F-5 and claimed it was superior to the F-35.

My point here is that gross oversimplifications on US policy based on some questionable logic isn't the move. Geopolitics is complicated. Taiwan probably wont be an easy fight for China, and the US probably will be motivated to intervene. I fully acknowledge that politics in the US is in an...interesting state at the moment, but as a poster I think mentioned earlier, if there are two thing that will unify Washington is A) China on the march and B) (if they launch a preemptive strike) images of a burning US carrier.

Thank you for coming to my TED talk. I may or may not respond to rebuttals.

[temkc5]

Real events are far more accidental than Tom Clancy novels. They still may try to take advantage of the situation - as will DPRK - but I think an invasion of Taiwan remains extremely unlikely..

Couldn't have said it better so............didn't try

[Nikel]

“We have also taken steps to augment U.S. Air Force F-35, F-15, F-16, and A-10 fighter aircraft squadrons in the region,”

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/investigat ... rcna119385

The plot could be twisted the other way around, but I will not do it


Now seriously, anybody knows where these aircraft reinforcements are being deployed?

And what do you think of the inclusion of the A-10?

[kevinkins]

I think the A10 was used to attack SAM and ground missile sights in Iraq1 from altitudes beyond the range of MANPADs. The US is retiring them. But does Hamas have a high altitude SAM system? They could hunt down their ground to ground missile systems. Orbit over the sea in then pounce based on UAV data. The IDF might find a few useful. I can't rule out a connection between the war against the IDF and Ukraine are synergistic.'

[Nikel]

I see, thanks.

Let's see where they are deployed to get a better picture.

I was thinking of something similar to The Highway of Death, but now that I read It, they did not participate.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Highway_of_Death