Crazy Convoy Hits

[stjeand]

Al,

Just wondering...
The highest I had ever seen for a single UBoats stack in the past was 8 or 9MM and 3 escorts.

In my recent game I was hit with 6 MM and 4 escorts, especially in 1940...not the Uboats best year.
I would much rather sink more escorts than MM, since that will make a Uboats life easier...but...

That seems crazy high.
Is there a limit to the number they can sink or could they sink all 10 with good luck?
That is 40% of the Escorts that can even operate...

This is excluding surface fleets as I know that is very different.

[AlvaroSousa]

its 10% chance to sink an escort if I remember.

You could roll 10% x4.

I have seen crazy die rolls in board games. Like 12 infantry vs 2 and they all DIE to the 2 infantry.

Likely WP2 will have a range of damage instead of free flowing yeehaw of luck.

[Nirosi]

I assume this 10% is then adapted for respective tech levels of sub and escorts? Because escorts do have stats, including defense, and on my side I have always noticed a big difference when the escorts get their first +1 for defense (they do have a tendence to sink before that).

[stjeand]

This question for was WPE...which I suspect is the same.

4 escorts was just a surprise...and a huge hit losing 40% of my escorts.
Just bad luck which has been my naval experience in my current game...

[AlvaroSousa]

I have never seen that myself.

[stjeand]

I have never seen that myself.

And that was why I asked...first time I have ever seen that.
I have seen 3 but I think only once maybe twice in dozens of games.
It was like a colonoscopy for the UK escort fleet.

Is it the same chance to happen?

[AlvaroSousa]

sub has a 10% chance to hit an escort. So if 3 convoys pass in a zone....... It's 1 in 1000.

[Nirosi]

sub has a 10% chance to hit an escort. So if 3 convoys pass in a zone....... It's 1 in 1000.

Is that not affected by the escort's defense value?

[stjeand]

sub has a 10% chance to hit an escort. So if 3 convoys pass in a zone....... It's 1 in 1000.

What kind of voodoo math are you doing there?

10% is 100 in 1000

Shouldn't the number of subs affect this? Not just 1 sub has a 10% chance?
IF that was the case why would someone not just put 3 separate subs? Once they got to 10 subs that would sink one escort per turn.
Something seems off there.

I would think what should effect escorts sunk...

1) Number of Subs.
2) Number of Escorts
3) Number of Convoys
4) % of other defenders, air, DD, CV...

Just not sure what the math should be.

[AlvaroSousa]

.1 ^ 3 = .001 ...... 1 / .001 = 1000 this 1 in 1000.

It was a simple solution at the time. Tech might affect it but I don't remember. It's been a long time since I looked at that part of the code.

[AlvaroSousa]

It's though to gauge much like a lot of naval combat.

How do you represent the Allied intel during Midway which was the largest contributing factor of their success?

Or how the Bismarck 1 shotted the Hood?

Or the ineptitude of the Japanese during the Battle of Leyte Gulf where they could have easily sunk the entire invasion fleet but retreated.

The best I can do is measure the loss average and adjust for a few factors. There are so many.

Another is that the Italians had poor quality ammunition for their ships in the med.
Yet they achieved their goals of getting 90% of convoys to North Africa.
YET..... some of those convoys were key to success that got sunk like a transport or fuel or tanks.

It's a mountain of variables to consider and average out.

[ncc1701e]

It's a mountain of variables to consider and average out.

There are a lot of things that you could do. A pure random system is not the solution.

How do you represent the Allied intel during Midway which was the largest contributing factor of their success?

You create a technology named Cryptoanalysis on which each player has to invest and its counterpart, the Cryptography technology.

There are plenty of layers to add. WW2 was the beginning of electronic warfare. You can add Traffic Analysis whereby the volume of messages sent can give an indication if the enemy is ready to launch an operation. You can add Signals Intelligence to identify the origin and destination of messages. Thus, combining the two, you can have an indication of which units will be involved in an operation. Of course, increasing radio traffics must be an option also for a player to mislead the other side i.e. maskirovka, fortitude, ...

And we are not even speaking of decoding messages. Cryptoanalysis must allow you to decode the intent of the enemy if your level of Cryptoanalysis technology is higher than Cryptography technology of your enemy. And here, we enter into several notions that can change the outcome of the air/naval battles:

• Surprise Attack

• Interception

• Carrier Ambush

• Surface ship Ambush

Or a single Ambush depends if you want to distinguish the effects when there are carriers or not. I think you are not far of your Midway effect.

Think also of Coastwatchers to inform of the presence of this or this ship.

Or how the Bismarck 1 shotted the Hood?

Simple, that is what we call a Critical Hit. Just implement Critical Hits with 1% of chance of occurrence and it is done.

Or the ineptitude of the Japanese during the Battle of Leyte Gulf where they could have easily sunk the entire invasion fleet but retreated.

I think I have seen enough of "Enemy Fleet not found" messages to know this is already implemented.

[AlvaroSousa]

Those are good ideas but then we are over complicating the game. 4 technologies just to account for some naval variables is a lot and easily exploited. It will have to be balanced. More complexity longer for balance.

[ncc1701e]

Those are good ideas but then we are over complicating the game. 4 technologies just to account for some naval variables is a lot and easily exploited. It will have to be balanced. More complexity longer for balance.

Only two technologies in my mind. The three others could be added by a report each turn. You should really work on headquarters, adding them more powers.

But you see, there are solutions.