GW Counterfactual Take 3.

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rkr1958
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Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.

Post by rkr1958 »

Turn 21. Jan/Feb 1943. Pacific Theater of Operations (PTO).

Allied #4.

China Sea.
04-AL-PTO-China-Sea-NC-1.png
04-AL-PTO-China-Sea-NC-1.png (200.61 KiB) Viewed 608 times
Bismarck Sea.
04-AL-PTO-Bismarck-Sea-NC-1.png
04-AL-PTO-Bismarck-Sea-NC-1.png (195.18 KiB) Viewed 608 times
04-AL-PTO-Bismarck-Sea-EOI.png
04-AL-PTO-Bismarck-Sea-EOI.png (756.93 KiB) Viewed 608 times
Philippines.
04-AL-PTO-Philippines-EOI.png
04-AL-PTO-Philippines-EOI.png (1.43 MiB) Viewed 608 times
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rkr1958
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Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.

Post by rkr1958 »

Turn 21. Jan/Feb 1943. Pacific Theater of Operations (PTO).

Allied #4.

Honolulu.
04-AL-PTO-Honolulu.png
04-AL-PTO-Honolulu.png (343.11 KiB) Viewed 605 times
04-AL-PTO-USN-HQ-Reorg.png
04-AL-PTO-USN-HQ-Reorg.png (212.54 KiB) Viewed 605 times
Ronnie
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rkr1958
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Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.

Post by rkr1958 »

Turn 21. Jan/Feb 1943. Pacific Theater of Operations (PTO).

Axis #7.
07-AX-PTO-South-China-Sea-EOI.png
07-AX-PTO-South-China-Sea-EOI.png (1.49 MiB) Viewed 603 times
Allied #10.
Combat Logs.
10-AL-PTO-WL.png
10-AL-PTO-WL.png (257.04 KiB) Viewed 603 times
Ronnie
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rkr1958
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Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.

Post by rkr1958 »

Turn 21. Jan/Feb 1943. Pacific Theater of Operations (PTO).

Allied #10.

China Sea.
10-AL-PTO-China-Sea-NC-1.png
10-AL-PTO-China-Sea-NC-1.png (230.35 KiB) Viewed 602 times
10-AL-PTO-China-Sea-NC-1b.png
10-AL-PTO-China-Sea-NC-1b.png (165.59 KiB) Viewed 602 times
10-AL-PTO-China-Sea-NC-1c.png
10-AL-PTO-China-Sea-NC-1c.png (243.38 KiB) Viewed 602 times
10-AL-PTO-China-Sea-NC-1d.png
10-AL-PTO-China-Sea-NC-1d.png (203.34 KiB) Viewed 602 times
Ronnie
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rkr1958
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Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.

Post by rkr1958 »

Turn 21. Jan/Feb 1943. Pacific Theater of Operations (PTO).

Allied #10.

Coral Sea.
10-AL-PTO-Coral-Sea-NC-1.png
10-AL-PTO-Coral-Sea-NC-1.png (258.38 KiB) Viewed 601 times
Sea of Japan.
10-AL-PTO-Sea-of-Japan-NC-1.png
10-AL-PTO-Sea-of-Japan-NC-1.png (285.76 KiB) Viewed 601 times
Bismarck Sea. Round 1 (1/2).
10-AL-PTO-Bismarck-Sea-NC-1.png
10-AL-PTO-Bismarck-Sea-NC-1.png (248.66 KiB) Viewed 601 times
10-AL-PTO-Bismarck-Sea-NC-1b.png
10-AL-PTO-Bismarck-Sea-NC-1b.png (208.24 KiB) Viewed 601 times
Ronnie
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rkr1958
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Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.

Post by rkr1958 »

Turn 21. Jan/Feb 1943. Pacific Theater of Operations (PTO).

Allied #10.

Bismarck Sea. Round 1 (2/2).
10-AL-PTO-Bismarck-Sea-NC-1c.png
10-AL-PTO-Bismarck-Sea-NC-1c.png (158.8 KiB) Viewed 600 times
10-AL-PTO-Bismarck-Sea-NC-1d.png
10-AL-PTO-Bismarck-Sea-NC-1d.png (174.43 KiB) Viewed 600 times
Round 2 (1/2).
10-AL-PTO-Bismarck-Sea-NC-2.png
10-AL-PTO-Bismarck-Sea-NC-2.png (188.96 KiB) Viewed 600 times
10-AL-PTO-Bismarck-Sea-NC-2b.png
10-AL-PTO-Bismarck-Sea-NC-2b.png (196.5 KiB) Viewed 600 times
Ronnie
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rkr1958
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Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.

Post by rkr1958 »

Turn 21. Jan/Feb 1943. Pacific Theater of Operations (PTO).

Allied #10.

Bismarck Sea. Round 2 (2/2).
10-AL-PTO-Bismarck-Sea-NC-2c.png
10-AL-PTO-Bismarck-Sea-NC-2c.png (215.14 KiB) Viewed 599 times
10-AL-PTO-Bismarck-Sea-NC-2d.png
10-AL-PTO-Bismarck-Sea-NC-2d.png (163.06 KiB) Viewed 599 times
10-AL-PTO-Bismarck-Sea-NC-2e.png
10-AL-PTO-Bismarck-Sea-NC-2e.png (183.43 KiB) Viewed 599 times
Artillery Ground Strike. Philippines.
10-AL-Pacific-Arty-GSTK-Philippines.png
10-AL-Pacific-Arty-GSTK-Philippines.png (361.32 KiB) Viewed 599 times
Ronnie
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rkr1958
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Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.

Post by rkr1958 »

Turn 21. Jan/Feb 1943. Pacific Theater of Operations (PTO).

Allied #10.

Truk.
10-AL-PTO-Truk-Ground-Strike.png
10-AL-PTO-Truk-Ground-Strike.png (387.42 KiB) Viewed 598 times
10-AL-PTO-Truk-LC.png
10-AL-PTO-Truk-LC.png (218.71 KiB) Viewed 598 times
10-AL-PTO-Bismarck-Sea-EOI.png
10-AL-PTO-Bismarck-Sea-EOI.png (1.2 MiB) Viewed 598 times
China Sea.
10-AL-Pacific-China-Sea-EOI.png
10-AL-Pacific-China-Sea-EOI.png (1.58 MiB) Viewed 598 times
Ronnie
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rkr1958
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Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.

Post by rkr1958 »

Turn 21. Jan/Feb 1943. Pacific Theater of Operations (PTO).

Axis #13.
IJN Naval Moves.
13-AX-PTO-IJN-NMx2.png
13-AX-PTO-IJN-NMx2.png (1.67 MiB) Viewed 597 times
Combat Logs.
13-AX-PTO-WL.png
13-AX-PTO-WL.png (62.51 KiB) Viewed 597 times
China Sea.
13-AX-PTO-China-Sea-NC-1.png
13-AX-PTO-China-Sea-NC-1.png (213.32 KiB) Viewed 597 times
Sea of Japan.
13-AX-PTO-Sea-of-Japan-NC-1.png
13-AX-PTO-Sea-of-Japan-NC-1.png (214.92 KiB) Viewed 597 times
Ronnie
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rkr1958
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Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.

Post by rkr1958 »

Turn 21. Jan/Feb 1943. End of Turn.

Partisans.
99-Partisans.png
99-Partisans.png (75.13 KiB) Viewed 596 times
China.
99-Partsian-China.png
99-Partsian-China.png (2.04 MiB) Viewed 596 times
FIC.
99-Partisan-FIC.png
99-Partisan-FIC.png (1.66 MiB) Viewed 596 times
Ronnie
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rkr1958
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Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.

Post by rkr1958 »

Turn 21. Jan/Feb 1943. End of Turn.

Destroyed.
99-Destroyed.png
99-Destroyed.png (85.74 KiB) Viewed 596 times
Damaged & Dry Dock.
99-Dry-Dock.png
99-Dry-Dock.png (125.91 KiB) Viewed 596 times
BP Reports.
99-BP-Reports.png
99-BP-Reports.png (50.28 KiB) Viewed 596 times
Ronnie
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rkr1958
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Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.

Post by rkr1958 »

Turn 21. Jan/Feb 1943. End of Turn.

Use Oil.
99-Use-Oil-WL.png
99-Use-Oil-WL.png (39.09 KiB) Viewed 595 times
99-Use-Oil-Japan.png
99-Use-Oil-Japan.png (279.17 KiB) Viewed 595 times
Economic Reports.
99-ECON.png
99-ECON.png (109.13 KiB) Viewed 595 times
Ronnie
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Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.

Post by rkr1958 »

Turn 21. Jan/Feb 1943. End of Turn.

Production (Build) Spiral.
99-Production-1.png
99-Production-1.png (228.22 KiB) Viewed 594 times
99-Production-2.png
99-Production-2.png (191.48 KiB) Viewed 594 times
99-Production-3.png
99-Production-3.png (246.67 KiB) Viewed 594 times
99-Production-4.png
99-Production-4.png (124.72 KiB) Viewed 594 times
Ronnie
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rkr1958
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Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.

Post by rkr1958 »

Turn 21. Jan/Feb 1943. End of Turn.

Global Maps.

Control.
99-GM-Control.png
99-GM-Control.png (110.38 KiB) Viewed 592 times
Units.
99-GM-Units.png
99-GM-Units.png (107.26 KiB) Viewed 592 times
Active Axis.
99-GM-Active-Axis.png
99-GM-Active-Axis.png (106.4 KiB) Viewed 592 times
Active Allied.
99-GM-Active-Allied.png
99-GM-Active-Allied.png (107.62 KiB) Viewed 592 times
Ronnie
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Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.

Post by rkr1958 »

Turn 21. Jan/Feb 1943. End of Turn.

Victory Totals.
99-VT-1.png
99-VT-1.png (149.95 KiB) Viewed 591 times
99-VT-2.png
99-VT-2.png (62.41 KiB) Viewed 591 times
War Directives.

Summary.
99-WD-Summary.png
99-WD-Summary.png (59.14 KiB) Viewed 591 times
CCP.
99-WD-CCP.png
99-WD-CCP.png (84.53 KiB) Viewed 591 times
Ronnie
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Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.

Post by rkr1958 »

Turn 21. Jan/Feb 1943. End of Turn.

War Directives.

Japan.
99-WD-Japan.png
99-WD-Japan.png (277.66 KiB) Viewed 590 times
Germany.
99-WD-Germany.png
99-WD-Germany.png (250.88 KiB) Viewed 590 times
Vichy.
99-WD-Vichy.png
99-WD-Vichy.png (25.6 KiB) Viewed 590 times
Italy.
99-WD-Italy.png
99-WD-Italy.png (94.23 KiB) Viewed 590 times
Ronnie
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Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.

Post by rkr1958 »

Turn 21. Jan/Feb 1943. End of Turn.

War Directives.

CW.
99-WD-CW.png
99-WD-CW.png (518.62 KiB) Viewed 589 times
USA.
99-WD-USA.png
99-WD-USA.png (208.41 KiB) Viewed 589 times
USSR.
99-WD-USSR.png
99-WD-USSR.png (225.49 KiB) Viewed 589 times
Ronnie
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Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.

Post by rkr1958 »

I started this AAR and corresponding game over a year ago (March 11, 2023). Though I’m moving at times at a snail’s pace I’m having a blast in my 3rd go at my counterfactual simulation using MWIF, every evolving house rules and decision aids/algorithms/equations. The later of which (decision aids/algorithms/equations) I’ve included throughout this AAR but haven’t addressed directly. I don’t plan to address these now but do plan to do later and encourage folks following to freely discuss and even add to such.

As I look at the way I’ve been doing this AAR with “massive” dumps (i.e., posts) at the conclusion of each turn I wonder if I’ve giving the casual follower too much to digest at one time. I know if I were such (that is a casual follower) that I would skim over, if at all, a lot of the earlier posts for a given turn probably just focusing only on the last page of posts that appear for a while until the next turn is posted.

I’ve decided at this point, until or if I decide differently, to post as I go. That is, to start posting an impulse or even less at a time. The implication of this is that posts for a given turn will no longer be group by theater but by impulse with theater(s) sprinkled throughout. I will; however, at the start and end of each turn continue with the summaries that I’ve been typically providing.

Playing solo I do lose out on the tactical lessons learned that one, that is me, would get from playing a better player. I whole heartly encourage constructive criticism from the community on tactical mistakes, errors and decisions (even lucky sub optimal ones) that folks might see. I also encourage such feedback on my counterfactual simulation house rules and decision aids/algorithms/equations. To include comparing and contrasting my game with the historical record and where one thinks I might be doing a good or poor job. Now by posting as I go, I want to give the community the opportunity to contribute and have some influence over the path this counterfactual simulation takes moving forward.
Ronnie
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Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.

Post by rkr1958 »

Turn 22. Mar/Apr 1943. Reinforcements.

I will continue to use the report functionality of my EXCEL spreadsheet (multiple) AAR tool to generate a number of reports, such as the below reinforcement report. Where I plan to deviate from previous is in narrative. I plan now to put the narrative directly in the AAR post(s) as opposed previously where they were captured in and posted as "reports" in the AAR spreadsheet.

Of note, Germany had 8 pilots but only filled 5 planes, 2 of which were Finnish bombers. Looks to me like they may be thinking of going after the Soviets armies (and div) in the Murmansk pocket in the Arctic. And they possibly switching the Finnish armies attention to Leningrad?

Vichy France was hoping to get the Ivory Coast (50/50 chance) Terr but missed out and got the Niger Colony Terr.

The Chinese got a Nationalist cav div instead of a CCP one. There are now two Nationalist divs on the map but far, far away from any influence/action.

Free France had both a Mtn and Mot corps available but can only have max 1 unit reinforcement per turn and so choose the Mtn.

With the Luftwaffe build up against the Soviet Siberian Fronts, the USSR needs air, starting with fighters in their Siberian Fronts. They got two fighters this turn, removed a PIL from their bomber in southern Russia and will get at least 3 (or maybe 2) more fighters next turn.
00-REINF.png
00-REINF.png (107.42 KiB) Viewed 470 times
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Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.

Post by rkr1958 »

Turn 22. Mar/Apr 1943. Trade.

The only change in discretionary trade from last turn is that the USSR will ship 8 of their Middle Eastern Oil to the CW this turn vs 4 to CW & 1 to Free France last turn. As with previous turns I will be handling this specific trade agreement manually (i.e., via editing). Trying to handle this through MWIF will be at best a very time-consuming endeavor to getting working the way I want it to work and at worst a total mess up of USSR & CW production. Also, while I'm letting MWIF attempt to handle the 2 CW BPs to USSR I will have to intervene (i.e., edit the game file) to get the 2nd CW BP through. Specifically, I want to send a BP from India to the USSR vs the Arabian Sea & Persian Gulf. Not matter how hard I try I can't seem to get MWIF to do that permanently.

Putting on my counterfactual hat, I do find it the trade between the Western Allies (USA, CW & Free France) and the USSR believable. The USA & CW are and have been sending 6 BPs of lend lease to the USSR per turn in return from 5 now, 8 oil points. The USSR definitely needs the lend least and the oil they’re sending the Western Allies through their Middle East land routes is surplus oil that would only build up (i.e., saved) and not be able to put to any use, if ever, until much later in the war (i.e., game).
00-Trade-Agreements.png
00-Trade-Agreements.png (84.41 KiB) Viewed 468 times
Ronnie
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