GW Counterfactual Take 3.

[rkr1958]

Turn 22. Mar/Apr 1943. Allied #7. The Eastern Front (Southern Russia).

(1) The CW has 1 FTC slots open.
(2) The CW is likely to pull their land 4 bomber and put it in Italy, leaving 2 FTC slots open (next turn).
(3) These may be filled by RSA inf & Ind Terr corps currently in India (next turn). However that won't be determine until next turn.
(4) Wavell pulls back his SEF force after the Soviets lost Grozny.

07-AL-Eastern-HQ-Reorg.png (244.61 KiB) Viewed 393 times

07-AL-Eastern-Southern-USSR-EOI.png (1.6 MiB) Viewed 393 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 22. Mar/Apr 1943. Allied #7. The Middle East.

(1) Long troublesome Persian (Italian controlled) partisan finally eliminated with no loss.
(2) However; there's now a 2% risk of (another) Persian partisan spawning at the end of turn.
(3) The Western Allies have 3 flipped corps & 2 divs in Persia.
(4) Only 1 div (unflipped) is need to move partisan chance from 2% to 0%.
(5) The allies plan to keep the Free French div there for that purpose.
(6) Also, the US want to ship out their Airborne corps in Tabriz to the Med, which will require a flipped corps (PLE Terr in Tehran) to stay.
(7) Of course, none of this can be done until next turn and hopefully without a Persian partisan.
(8) This leaves (next turn) the RSA inf & Ind Terr corps, which may either be shipped to southern USSR (likely) or to other theaters (maybe).
(9) Clark, Eisenhower HQ-I and VII Mot corps are also being withdrawn from the Middle East and most likely headed to the Med.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 22. Mar/Apr 1943. Allied #7. The Eastern Front. The Soviet Siberian Fronts.

(1) Yeremnko HQ-I railed to Kirov & Irkutsk MIL forced marched east of the Vyuthm to address the German panzer corps flanking in the north.
(2) All across, the Siberian fronts pull back to address the Wehrmacht flanking both north & south and pressing in the center.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 22. Mar/Apr 1943. Allied #7. East African Theater.

(1) London MIL railed from Doujibouti, French Somaliland to the front with Gort.
(2) Gort forces press on Addis Ababas, the last Italian stronghold outside of Italy itself.
(3) However; with 2 corps & 1 div defending and an adjacent corps to replace any loss from an unsuccessful attempt, Gort is far from having the necessary strength to even have a reasonable shot at taking Addis Ababas.
(4) The Egy Terr in British Somaliland might be headed to the Balkans to free up a frontline unit for the Med. More on that as we get to the Med.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 22. Mar/Apr 1943. Allied #7. Medeterrian Theater of Operation (MTO).

(1) The Western Allies expand their southeastern Italian bridgehead including the debarkation of two HQs (Bradley & Monty).
(2) Taranto is captured and USAAF & RAF strategic bomber wings flown in from the UK.
(3) Massive redeployment of quality frontline units in the Balkans begins, moving from the interior (of the Balkans) to the coast for redeployment (next turn, or possible even this turn for some) to Italy.
(4) UK airborne corps debarks to Sousse, Tunisia, which has organized USAAF C-47 wing ready to go. Along with the organized UK & US div on the coast of the Balkans this gives an immediate (i.e., this turn) credible invasion force.
(5) I need to go back through the rules, for both sides, to see what the surrender conditions are for Italy and how close they are to doing so.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 22. Mar/Apr 1943. Allied #7. West African Theater.

(1) UK inf div (2-4) moves into and overruns the OOS Vichy Fleet in Bingerville (CA, TRS Gp, 2 CPs).
(2) CA Colbert (flipped)=5 -> escapes (barley) and joins up with the Vichy TRS Gp 4935 & 2 CPs on an emergency sortie into Cape Verde Basin.
(3) The allies allied this fleeing Vichy fleet to pass through the Cape Verde Basin & Mouths of the Amazon to Cayenne, French Guyana without attempting intercept.
(4) The reason is in the hopes of getting an opportunity to capturing these vessels as they will remain flipped in their new home port.
(5) UK 1-4 inf div (OOS) force marches to Ouagadougou, Upper Volta to counter the Vichy Niger Terr threatening to take the city.
(6) US 4 inf div liberates Porto Novo, Dahomey and moves northeast to threaten Niamey, Niger if the Vichy Terr doesn't move back.
(7) Assuming that it does, which is a very good assumption, the Western Allies and Niger Vichy will be at a stalemate unit the allies can get a HQ and additional forces into theater to assault Niamey.
(8) Given Western Allied combat and sea lift priorities, this may be a while.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 22. Mar/Apr 1943. Allied #7. Asian Theater. China.

CCP.
(1) Only move was the Cav crops moving northeast to deter, or counter if necessary, the IJA mech div in Talyuan moving across the Ordos Desert towards Ningsia or even Lanchow.

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Nationalists.
(2) The reconstituted Nationalist army of 1 inf & 1 cav div is trying desperately to get back into the war.
(3) At best, the cav corps is 2 turns from reaching Ningisa, which Mao is happy to lend to the Nationalist for supply in return for protecting his northern flank.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 22. Mar/Apr 1943. Allied #7. Pacific Theater of Operation (PTO).

(1) USMC 2 div captures Wewak which allows the US Mtn & AUS inf corps to debark into from the Bismarck Sea.
(2) With heavy shore bombardment support form the USN, this force is able to eliminate the IJA Mtn corps with an automatic assault.
(3) US army inf div automatically amphibiously assaults and capture Sorong.
(4) Same for the USMC I amphibious corps into Hollandia, which is now positioned to help the allied force in Weak eliminate the IJA eng div.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 22. Mar/Apr 1943. Allied #7. Pacific Theater of Operation (PTO).

Philippines & New Guinea.

(1) MacArthur is HOT! He's getting no priority, and worse no additional troops to clear out the IJA inf div & IJN mar corps that is left in the Philippines.
(2) So be it says Adm Nimitz, King and US JCS.
(3) Menado is currently too strong for a direct invasion but the allies are looking at landing behind the lines and assault the port from the southwest.
(4) That definitely won't be until next turn and even then there's a concern of IJN bombardment and naval air support from the South China Sea.
(5) The allies are looking to continue to disrupt Japanese convoys and are now looking to degrade/disrupt their oil supply.

[rkr1958]

Turn 22. Mar/Apr 1943. Allied #7.

(1) End of Turn, D10(1) = 3 -> turn continues -> Axis #9.

Turn 22. Mar/Apr 1943. Axis #9.

(2) 90% chance that Germany will have to take this turn's required combine (or naval) this impulse.
(a) U = 8 -> 8 U-boat flotillas within detection range of one or more sea areas with 6 or more allied CPs.
(b) S = 0 -> all allied sea areas with 6 or more allied CPs within range of any flotilla has 1 or more SCS ASW escorts.
(c) A = 2, 2nd actual axis impulse of this turn.
(d) Germany may defer (again) taking the turn's required combine (or naval) if D10 > U+S+A = 10.
(3) D10 = 10 -> oh my goodness and they may and will defer, Germany takes a land.
(4) Italy & Germany believe they have a plan and good chance (70%) to eliminate the UK bridgehead southwest of Rome, which they may still could have done with a combine but now Germany will have significant latitude to also assault Sevastopol, continue pressing in Siberia, Southern USSR and continue to redeploy forces from the Balkans to the Italy.
(5) Gross Adm Donitz is again besides himself and can't believe that OKH (again) allows an land action. He thought he had a combine locked up and was ready to give him U-boat flotillas the sortie command to go allied convoy hunting.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 22. Mar/Apr 1943. Axis #9. The Eastern Front. Attack Planning - Sevastopol.

(1) With fine weather in the Crimea and his forces including air support in position, OKW orders von Leeb to get on with his assault to take Sevastopol.
(2) von Leeb will personally move his HQ reserves (HQ-I) in position to provide +1 in offensive HQ support.
(3) Directly east of Sevastopol is a German mot eng div (2 factors) that will allow all units in that hex to attack the fort at full strength.
(4) von Leeb can muster his HQ reserve forces, 3 corps & 2 divs for a total of 24 AF vs 8 DF.
(5) He also has at his disposal, 2 artillery divs, 2 Luftwaffe stuka wings, 1 fighter-bomber wing totaling 20 TAC factors.
(6) If all TAC factors are used in ground support then this would produce 44 AF w/+2 vs 8 DF w/-1 -> +12A (85% PWIN).
(7) However; von Leeb is faced with the decision if he should use any of these air or artillery units for ground strike(s).
(8) Of course, he'll make the final decision but he puts the problem back on his staff to work out the details and summarize in a form that will allow him to make an intelligent decision.
(9) His staff decides that the potential ground strike package will be the 150 mm arty div (4) & Ju 88A1 Stuka wing (4).
(10) The remainder, totaling 12 TAC, will be used in ground support IF von Leeb decides to go with the ground strike package. If not, all 20 TAC will be used in ground support.
(11) The rationale for the ground strike package is that its 8 total TAC equals to the 8 DF so at worse a complete miss (12.9%) will drop the assault odds by 2 to +10A (72% PWIN).
(12) One hit (46.1%) will give the same as if an all ground support attack (i.e., +12A, 85% PWIN).
(13) Two hits (41%) will raise the assault to +14A (94%).
(14) von Leeb's staff works out the expected PWIN for the ground strike package which comes to 87% and which is only a +3% improvement over the +12A guarantee odds for full ground support.
(15) Honestly at this point von Leeb hasn't decided what to do and he's apparently going to stop here for the night, enjoy a whiskey and an episode of "Murder She Wrote".
(16) If you would like to chime in please feel free to give your opinion as I find all this fun and hope you do too.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 22. Mar/Apr 1943. Axis #9. Eastern Front. Crimea.

(1) General von Leeb confers one last time with his staff for the final preparations for the assault to take Sevastopol.
(2) von Leeb must now give his final decision on which Luftwaffe, artillery support option: (a) Full Ground Support or (b) Ground Strike Package 4,4 & Remainder Ground Support.
(3) In addition to the expected +2 PWIN difference between (b) vs (a), von Leeb's staff present him with another metric (difference).
(4) Expected Cost = Expected BPs Killed - Expected BPs Lost, which equals to +2.78 for +12A, +2.15 for +10A and +3.77 for +14A.
(5) The difference is +0.32 for (b) vs (a).
(6) After sleeping on it and with all this in hand, von Leeb orders the assault to proceed with Luftwaffe & artillery support option (b).
(7) Let the pre assault ground strikes commence!

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[rkr1958]

Turn 22. Mar/Apr 1943. Axis #9. Eastern Front. Crimea.

Sevastopol Pre Assault Ground Strikes.

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09-AX-Eastern-Sevastopol-GSTK.png (283.45 KiB) Viewed 304 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 22. Mar/Apr 1943. Eastern Front. Southern USSR.

Combat Logs.

09-AX-Eastern-Southern-USSR-CL.png (135.21 KiB) Viewed 294 times

Sevastopol.

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09-AX-Eastern-Sevastopol-GSPT.png (266.36 KiB) Viewed 294 times

09-AX-Eastern-Sevastopol-LC.png (221.25 KiB) Viewed 294 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 22. Mar/Apr 1943. Eastern Front. Southern USSR.

USSR 61,74.

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End of Impulse.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 22. Mar/Apr 1943. Eastern Front. Siberian Army Groups.

09-AX-Eastern-Siberian-EOI.png (1.47 MiB) Viewed 291 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 22. Mar/Apr 1943. Eastern Front. Finland.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 22. Mar/Apr 1943. Axis #9. MTO.

Cassino (UK Bridgehead).

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09-AX-MTO-Cassino-LC.png (240.45 KiB) Viewed 285 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 22. Mar/Apr 1943. Axis #9. MTO.

(1) German rails x 3 into Northern Italy: (a) I Slovak (Eastern Front) to Turin, (b) Bremen MIL (Vichy) to Venice & (c) I SS Arm (YUG) to Milan.
(2) Significant redeployment also over land of Wehrmacht & SS units from Yugoslavia to Italy.
(3) Italian HQ-I Badoglio railed from Italy to Balkans.
(4) Because of the threat of (eventual) surrender, German units will continue to move to Italy and establish ZOC locks over hexes north of the allied line and a number of Italian units to other theater outside of Italy.
(5) That's why it's critical that Italy holds on to Ethiopia, which is the only colony they still control.
(6) Elimination of the Cassino UK bridgehead was big step to extending Italy's full participation in this war.

End of Impulse.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 22. Mar/Apr 1943. Axis #9. Asian Theater. China.

East 1 (E1) Sian.

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09-AX-Asian-E1-Sian-LC.png (263.5 KiB) Viewed 278 times