• Germany & Italy wanted to leave 1 U-boat/Sub Gp in both Cape St. Vincent & West Med at sea to interdict (i.e., attempt intercept) any allied sea lift "returning to base" to Italy.
• However; the axis realized that they made a tactical mistake in the West Med during their last impulse using the German U-boat in the 3-box to search, leaving only organized subs in the 2-box.
• SCS/Subs that stay at sea move down 1-box and only the ones that are organized may attempt intercept.
• Subs left in the West Med would then be in the 1-box, which have no chance to successful intercept during storm.
• Therefore, the axis have no chance to intercept anything returning to base through the West.
• Tactical mistake by not searching the last axis impulse with a Sub Gp in the 2-box, leaving the German U-boat in 3-box organized, which would have moved down to the 2-box and a chance (10%) to intercept.
• In the CSV, that axis can leave either, or both, the organized Italian & German Sub/U-boat at sea in the 3-box, which would move down to the 2-box and have a 10% chance to intercept.
• While, 10% isn't great, the question is if the allies are willing to risk a loaded transport/amph group which if intercept would be by the axis rolling a 1, potentially leading to a good search split for the axis and damage or even loss of the loaded transport/amph.
• A less serious tactical mistake, I guess, is that the axis also searched last impulse with a Sub Gp in the higher 4-box vs 3.
• If they instead had searched with one in the 3-box, leaving the Italian Sub Gp in the 4-box organized then this Sub Gp could have stayed at sea moving down to the 3-box and would have had a 20% vs 10% chance of intercept any allied sea lift moving through the CSV.
• So, the axis will leave the Italian 2-6-6 Sub Gp at sea and return all other Sub Gps and U-boat flotillas.
• It’s estimated the allies will not risk returning loaded sea lift through the CSV.
• Now nothing can be done about the Amph Gp w/US Mtn corps in the CSV, which will likely return through the West Med directly to (reinforce) the allies in Italy.
• However; it’s estimated that the 2 loaded USN TRS Gps off the East Coast will “return to base”, really should be called “advance to forward base” to Saint Louis, Mauritania and Dakar, Senegal.
• Germany and Italy just realized that all the above logic is FLAWED, but only after making their return to base decisions!
• You only need an organized unit to initiate search, the chance of intercept is based on the unit in the highest sea-box whether organized or not.
• So, the axis in the West Med could have left one organized sub in the 2-box and the flipped U-boat in the 3-box, which move down to 1 and 2-box, respectively and would have given the axis a 10% chance of intercepting any sea lift moving through the West Med.
• But they didn’t. They only left an Italian Sub Gp in the CSV at sea.
• Now, let’s see how all this plays out during return to base, flawed axis logic and all!
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