GW Counterfactual Take 3.
Moderator: Shannon V. OKeets
Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.
Turn 24. Jul/Aug 1943. Reinforcements.
Additional New German War Directive.
(1) During placement of Germany's reinforcements I was reminded of the Soviet Partisan occupying Krivoy Rog and blocking the 3 RPs there from Germany factories.
(2) An additional (new), high priority, German War directive was written to address this by clearing the partisan out this turn.
(3) The plan, included in the directive, required deployment and use of Model HQ-I & HG mech corps for this purpose.
Additional New German War Directive.
(1) During placement of Germany's reinforcements I was reminded of the Soviet Partisan occupying Krivoy Rog and blocking the 3 RPs there from Germany factories.
(2) An additional (new), high priority, German War directive was written to address this by clearing the partisan out this turn.
(3) The plan, included in the directive, required deployment and use of Model HQ-I & HG mech corps for this purpose.
Ronnie
Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.
Turn 24. Jul/Aug 1943. Initiative Analysis, Voting & Instructions.
Summary.
(1) No DRM, axis win ties. Both sides may request a reroll.
(2) Both sides wish to move first and will reroll if necessary.
(3) So there will be a reroll (i.e., 2 rolls for initiative).
(4) Axis have 55.45% and allies 44.55% chance of winning the initiative and moving first.
Summary.
(1) No DRM, axis win ties. Both sides may request a reroll.
(2) Both sides wish to move first and will reroll if necessary.
(3) So there will be a reroll (i.e., 2 rolls for initiative).
(4) Axis have 55.45% and allies 44.55% chance of winning the initiative and moving first.
Organized German U-boat Flotillas & Sub Gps. Weather Forecast.HR 26. Battle of the Atlantic. (G 2141)
The following applies to Germany and Italy when active and prior to 1944.
Each MP prior to 1944 when active must build and/or repair a minimum of 3 or max possible subs per turn. Also, German & Italian subs get top priority for oiling during use oil prior to 1944.
Until Germany has taken a combine or naval action in a given turn, they must take one on the current axis impulse or successfully defer taking it. The choice to attempt to defer is voluntary and may be deferred if D10 >= U+S+A, U = # U-boat flotillas that threaten any sea area containing 6 or more CPs, S = # sea areas threaten containing 6 or more CPs and no escorting SCS in the 0-box and A = actual # of the current axis impulse of the given turn (i.e., 1,2,3,4, …). Threaten means a chance to find given weather and fight a sub or surface action against the 0-box. Escorting SCS means any SCS that could be included in a sub or surface combat.
Ronnie
Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.
Turn 23. Jul/Aug 1943. Axis #1.
Actions.
Japan - naval.
Germany & Vichy - combine.
(1) In addition to Germany's 8 U-boat flotillias/Sub Gps, Vichy has 1 sub group.
(2) I'm following WIF CE (ver 8) rule that all subs may be moved for 1 naval move.
(3) The question is whether or not Vichy's sub is included in that 1 naval move or would be a second naval move.
(4) I posted over at board geeks (WIF section) this question and have gotten mixed responses.
(5) So, I decided for now to resolve this question by a D10 roll, 1-5 => yes Vichy sub included in Germany's 1 naval (all subs) move and 6-10 => Not included.
(6) D10=3 => yes, so Vichy's 1 Sub Gp included in Germany's 1 naval (all subs) move.
Germany's 1 Naval (All Subs) Move.
(7) Germany decide to continue their attack on allied shipping into and in the Med and moves 3 U-boat Flotillas/Sub Gps each in Cape St. Vincent, West Med & East Med.
(8) Unlike previous turns where Italy was unconquered, the Euro-Axis (Germany only in this case) will NOT take another combine this turn.
(9) So the won't have Italy to be able to do so and initiate search.
(10) However; surviving and organized German subs will be able to search as non-phasing if the Western Allies make any moves into these sea areas which is almost certain.
Actions.
Japan - naval.
Germany & Vichy - combine.
(1) In addition to Germany's 8 U-boat flotillias/Sub Gps, Vichy has 1 sub group.
(2) I'm following WIF CE (ver 8) rule that all subs may be moved for 1 naval move.
(3) The question is whether or not Vichy's sub is included in that 1 naval move or would be a second naval move.
(4) I posted over at board geeks (WIF section) this question and have gotten mixed responses.
(5) So, I decided for now to resolve this question by a D10 roll, 1-5 => yes Vichy sub included in Germany's 1 naval (all subs) move and 6-10 => Not included.
(6) D10=3 => yes, so Vichy's 1 Sub Gp included in Germany's 1 naval (all subs) move.
Germany's 1 Naval (All Subs) Move.
(7) Germany decide to continue their attack on allied shipping into and in the Med and moves 3 U-boat Flotillas/Sub Gps each in Cape St. Vincent, West Med & East Med.
(8) Unlike previous turns where Italy was unconquered, the Euro-Axis (Germany only in this case) will NOT take another combine this turn.
(9) So the won't have Italy to be able to do so and initiate search.
(10) However; surviving and organized German subs will be able to search as non-phasing if the Western Allies make any moves into these sea areas which is almost certain.
Ronnie
Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.
Turn 23. Jul/Aug 1943. Axis #1. PTO.
IJN Naval Moves.
(1) IJN doing what they can in the China & South China seas to restore convoy lines and get what production they can.
(2) Also, IJN Sub Squadrons (only two) look to sink allied CPs in the Arabian & Coral Seas.
(3) This is more of harassing attacks than anything else; but the IJN is looking to harass the allies. Japanese Production Post Naval Moves.
(4) IJN TRS Gps did pick up mech corps, arm & arty div intended along with the warlord in Haichow to eliminate the 3-2 CCP partisan.
(5) This will give Japan another factory producing and (just) another BP due to rounding over what they're producing now.
IJN Naval Moves.
(1) IJN doing what they can in the China & South China seas to restore convoy lines and get what production they can.
(2) Also, IJN Sub Squadrons (only two) look to sink allied CPs in the Arabian & Coral Seas.
(3) This is more of harassing attacks than anything else; but the IJN is looking to harass the allies. Japanese Production Post Naval Moves.
(4) IJN TRS Gps did pick up mech corps, arm & arty div intended along with the warlord in Haichow to eliminate the 3-2 CCP partisan.
(5) This will give Japan another factory producing and (just) another BP due to rounding over what they're producing now.
Ronnie
Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.
Turn 24. Jul/Aug 1943. Axis #1.
I rewrote HR 26 with a probabilistic equation that attempts to force Germany to take their one required combine/naval per turn early in the turn; especially if the axis move first on their first impulse, when allied convoys are at their most vulnerable.
Since that time axis subs have sunk 20 Western Allied CPs and aborted 17. That’s 30% of the total 69 Western Allied sunk so far this war (game) and 37.8% of the total 45 aborted. I’d say the modified HR 26 is achieving what I wanted in attempting to replicate BOA losses.
What I didn’t expect from HR 26 was the impact of such a forced combine/naval would have on, and the naval battles fought over, allied supply in the Med, Middle East, East Africa and Southern USSR.
As the German player, I was bemoaning the impact this turn of the certain and required combine for German. Specifically the impact of constraining land moves on the Eastern Front and in Italy. The fact that German would have only 6 land moves for all these forces and not the unlimited moves that would have come with a land action. What I didn’t expect was the incredible opportunity that Germany got on the Eastern Front, especially in the Caucasus vs Wavell’s BEF because of this combine. In fact, if not forced to do so I would not have taken this combine as Germany even if I had analyzed such an opportunity, because of the low probability chance. But, HR 26 FORCED Germany to take the high risk, high gain opportunity that this combine presented.
I have to say that this impulse was a very fun one filled with lots of action and intrigue. I initially thought that with a German combine, Japanese naval and Italy completely defeated that this impulse would be mostly uneventful except for some possible allied CP losses that the Western Allies would easily replace on their impulse. Boy, was I wrong!
I hope you can sit back and enjoy this impulse as much as I did as it unfolded. Goes to show you that even in solitary, MWIF can surprise you!
By the way, Germany's, Vichy's & Japan's naval moves are shown above and I won't repeat them here. We now move to naval combat.
The modified HR 26, “Battle of the Atlantic”, requiring Germany to take at least 1 combine/naval per turn was (re)written at the start of turn 20 (ND42), which is 4 turns and 1 impulse ago.HR 26. Battle of the Atlantic. (G 2141)
The following applies to Germany and Italy when active and prior to 1944.
Each MP prior to 1944 when active must build and/or repair a minimum of 3 or max possible subs per turn. Also, German & Italian subs get top priority for oiling during use oil prior to 1944.
Until Germany has taken a combine or naval action in a given turn, they must take one on the current axis impulse or successfully defer taking it. The choice to attempt to defer is voluntary and may be deferred if D10 >= U+S+A, U = # U-boat flotillas that threaten any sea area containing 6 or more CPs, S = # sea areas threaten containing 6 or more CPs and no escorting SCS in the 0-box and A = actual # of the current axis impulse of the given turn (i.e., 1,2,3,4, …). Threaten means a chance to find given weather and fight a sub or surface action against the 0-box. Escorting SCS means any SCS that could be included in a sub or surface combat.
I rewrote HR 26 with a probabilistic equation that attempts to force Germany to take their one required combine/naval per turn early in the turn; especially if the axis move first on their first impulse, when allied convoys are at their most vulnerable.
Since that time axis subs have sunk 20 Western Allied CPs and aborted 17. That’s 30% of the total 69 Western Allied sunk so far this war (game) and 37.8% of the total 45 aborted. I’d say the modified HR 26 is achieving what I wanted in attempting to replicate BOA losses.
What I didn’t expect from HR 26 was the impact of such a forced combine/naval would have on, and the naval battles fought over, allied supply in the Med, Middle East, East Africa and Southern USSR.
As the German player, I was bemoaning the impact this turn of the certain and required combine for German. Specifically the impact of constraining land moves on the Eastern Front and in Italy. The fact that German would have only 6 land moves for all these forces and not the unlimited moves that would have come with a land action. What I didn’t expect was the incredible opportunity that Germany got on the Eastern Front, especially in the Caucasus vs Wavell’s BEF because of this combine. In fact, if not forced to do so I would not have taken this combine as Germany even if I had analyzed such an opportunity, because of the low probability chance. But, HR 26 FORCED Germany to take the high risk, high gain opportunity that this combine presented.
I have to say that this impulse was a very fun one filled with lots of action and intrigue. I initially thought that with a German combine, Japanese naval and Italy completely defeated that this impulse would be mostly uneventful except for some possible allied CP losses that the Western Allies would easily replace on their impulse. Boy, was I wrong!
I hope you can sit back and enjoy this impulse as much as I did as it unfolded. Goes to show you that even in solitary, MWIF can surprise you!
By the way, Germany's, Vichy's & Japan's naval moves are shown above and I won't repeat them here. We now move to naval combat.
Ronnie
Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.
Turn 24. Jul/Aug 1943. Axis #1. Cape St. Vincent.
Combat Logs. Naval Combat Round 1.
Combat Logs. Naval Combat Round 1.
Ronnie
Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.
Turn 24. Jul/Aug 1943. Axis #1. Cape St. Vincent.
Naval Combat. Round 2. Naval Combat. Round 3.
Both searches fail to find.
Naval Combat. Round 2. Naval Combat. Round 3.
Both searches fail to find.
Ronnie
Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.
Turn 24. Jul/Aug 1943. Axis #1. MTO.
East Med. Naval Combat. Round 1. East Med. Naval Combat. Round 2.
German Subs dive.
East Med. Naval Combat. Round 1. East Med. Naval Combat. Round 2.
German Subs dive.
Ronnie
Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.
Turn 24. Jul/Aug 1943. Axis #1. PTO. Coral Sea.
Combat Logs. Naval Combat.
Combat Logs. Naval Combat.
Ronnie
Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.
Turn 24. Jul/Aug 1943. Axis #1. PTO. Arabian Sea.
Combat Logs. Naval Combat.
Combat Logs. Naval Combat.
Ronnie
Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.
Turn 24. Jul/Aug 1943. Axis #1. Asian Theater.
Before devoting the rest of this impulse to the Eastern Front, I need to get reporting on the following artillery ground strike vs Sian out of the way.
Also, with a naval, Japan had no land moves so nothing changed in China this impulse except for the following ground strike.
Before devoting the rest of this impulse to the Eastern Front, I need to get reporting on the following artillery ground strike vs Sian out of the way.
Also, with a naval, Japan had no land moves so nothing changed in China this impulse except for the following ground strike.
Ronnie
Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.
Turn 24. Jul/Aug 1943. Axis #1. The Eastern Front. Southern Army Groups. Ground Strikes.
Combat Logs. Ground Strike #1. Caucasus Mtn 62,74. Ground Strike #2. Caucasus Mtn 62,75.
Combat Logs. Ground Strike #1. Caucasus Mtn 62,74. Ground Strike #2. Caucasus Mtn 62,75.
Ronnie
Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.
Turn 24. Jul/Aug 1943. Axis #1. Siberian Army Groups.
Combat Logs. Ground Support. Land Combat.
Combat Logs. Ground Support. Land Combat.
Ronnie
Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.
Turn 24. Jul/Aug 1943. Axis #1. Siberian Army Groups.
End of Impulse.
End of Impulse.
Ronnie
Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.
Turn 24. Jul/Aug 1943. Axis #1. Eastern Front. Southern Army Groups.
Combat Logs. Ground Support. Land Combat. End of Impulse.
Combat Logs. Ground Support. Land Combat. End of Impulse.
Ronnie
Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.
Turn 24. Jul/Aug 1943. Axis #1.
Not sure my reporting capture the excitement of this impulse, but it was exciting, fun, unexpected, surprising for me even in solo due to my clunky, poor man's AIO & AIA.
Only an AIO, or it is an AIA, would take a combine with Germany this impulse given their current situation and weather.
Not sure my reporting capture the excitement of this impulse, but it was exciting, fun, unexpected, surprising for me even in solo due to my clunky, poor man's AIO & AIA.
Only an AIO, or it is an AIA, would take a combine with Germany this impulse given their current situation and weather.
Ronnie
