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- 04-AL-MTO-HQ-Reorg.png (335.39 KiB) Viewed 638 times
GW Counterfactual Take 3.
Moderator: Shannon V. OKeets
Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.
Turn 24. Jul/Aug 1943. Allied #4. MTO.
Pola.
Italy 66,40.
HQ Reorg.
Ronnie
Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.
Turn 24. Jul/Aug 1943. Allied #4. MTO.
End of Impulse.
End of Impulse.
- 04-AL-MTO-EOI.png (1.8 MiB) Viewed 637 times
Ronnie
Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.
Turn 24. Jul/Aug 1943. Axis #5. Weather & Actions.
(1) Impulse #174.
(2) Why not? Two 10's weather rolls (in a row) for this Jul/Aug turn.
(3) Soviet's definitely don't mind on their Siberian Front.
(4) Advance = 2 will (should) shorten a normally long turn.
(5) Germany & Japan will both take land actions.
(6) But that's tomorrow ...
(1) Impulse #174.
(2) Why not? Two 10's weather rolls (in a row) for this Jul/Aug turn.
(3) Soviet's definitely don't mind on their Siberian Front.
(4) Advance = 2 will (should) shorten a normally long turn.
(5) Germany & Japan will both take land actions.
(6) But that's tomorrow ...
- 05-AX-Weather-Actions.png (34.04 KiB) Viewed 633 times
Ronnie
Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.
Turn 24. Jul/Aug 1943. Axis #5. Asian Theater. Manchuria.
(1) BREAKING NEWS - Japan is in Breech of their non-aggressive pact with the USSR.
(2) With the unfolding and negative situations both in China and (especially) in the Pacific, Imperial Japanese HQ overlooked ordering the IJA 2nd tank army to the Manchuria frontier with the USSR.
(3) Naotake Sato, the Japanese ambassador to the USSR, once made aware of this breech frantically requests a meeting with Vyacheslav Molotov, key Stalin diplomat.
(4) Molotov agrees to fly to Vladivostok to meet with the Japanese ambassador.
(5) Though the USSR is perfectly within their rights to cancel and the pact and declare war on Japan, the unfolding situation on the Southern USSR fronts makes this the last thing that Stalin wishes to do.
(6) Molotov extracts his moves off of Terauchi's hex this impulse to allow room to rail the IJA 2nd tank army next (axis) impulse to the Manchurian frontier.
(7) The 2nd tank army (this impulse) moves to the rail station at Changsha, China awaiting rail to the frontier next (axis) impulse.
(8) Molotov then flies back to Perm, the seat of Soviet power since the loss of Moscow and hears of the unfolding disaster with the Southern Soviet fronts.
(1) BREAKING NEWS - Japan is in Breech of their non-aggressive pact with the USSR.
(2) With the unfolding and negative situations both in China and (especially) in the Pacific, Imperial Japanese HQ overlooked ordering the IJA 2nd tank army to the Manchuria frontier with the USSR.
(3) Naotake Sato, the Japanese ambassador to the USSR, once made aware of this breech frantically requests a meeting with Vyacheslav Molotov, key Stalin diplomat.
(4) Molotov agrees to fly to Vladivostok to meet with the Japanese ambassador.
(5) Though the USSR is perfectly within their rights to cancel and the pact and declare war on Japan, the unfolding situation on the Southern USSR fronts makes this the last thing that Stalin wishes to do.
(6) Molotov extracts his moves off of Terauchi's hex this impulse to allow room to rail the IJA 2nd tank army next (axis) impulse to the Manchurian frontier.
(7) The 2nd tank army (this impulse) moves to the rail station at Changsha, China awaiting rail to the frontier next (axis) impulse.
(8) Molotov then flies back to Perm, the seat of Soviet power since the loss of Moscow and hears of the unfolding disaster with the Southern Soviet fronts.
- 05-AX-Asian-Manchuria-Japanese-Soviet-Pact.png (1.71 MiB) Viewed 601 times
Ronnie
Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.
Turn 24. Jul/Aug 1943. Axis #5. Asian Theater. China. End of Impulse
(1) Forces in place to assault the CCP partisan and retake Shanghai.
(2) However, odds around 5.2A gave the IJA seconds thoughts.
(3) Yamashita order to take command and make the assault where he gets there.
(4) In the north, Hata & Umezua are able to completely isolate CCP armies in Sian.
(1) Forces in place to assault the CCP partisan and retake Shanghai.
(2) However, odds around 5.2A gave the IJA seconds thoughts.
(3) Yamashita order to take command and make the assault where he gets there.
(4) In the north, Hata & Umezua are able to completely isolate CCP armies in Sian.
- 05-AX-Asian-China-EOI.png (1.96 MiB) Viewed 600 times
Ronnie
Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.
Turn 24. Jul/Aug 1943. Axis #5. Eastern Front. Siberian Army Groups.
(1) Rain has certainty put a damper on any Wehrmacht plans to continue their push in Siberian (pun intended).
(2) Wehrmacht continues to shift their axis of attack north (even in the rain) and do secure their southern flank.
End of Impulse.
(1) Rain has certainty put a damper on any Wehrmacht plans to continue their push in Siberian (pun intended).
(2) Wehrmacht continues to shift their axis of attack north (even in the rain) and do secure their southern flank.
End of Impulse.
- 05-AX-Eastern-Siberian-Army-Groups.png (1.45 MiB) Viewed 599 times
Ronnie
Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.
Turn 24. Jul/Aug 1943. Axis #5. The Eastern Front.
Southern Army Groups.
Overrun of Black Sea Fleet in Batum.
Air Transport of 4th corps on the Soviet Border with Turkey to Batum.
Southern Army Groups.
- 05-AX-Eastern-Southern-AG-CL.png (84.84 KiB) Viewed 598 times
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- 05-AX-Eastern-Southern-Air-Transport.png (1.32 MiB) Viewed 598 times
Ronnie
Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.
Turn 24. Jul/Aug 1943. Axis #5. The Eastern Front.
Southern Army Groups.
Land Combats.
End of Impulse.
Southern Army Groups.
Land Combats.
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- 05-AX-Eastern-Southern-Army-Groups.png (1.85 MiB) Viewed 597 times
Ronnie
Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.
Turn 24. May/June 1943. MTO. Axis #5.
Emergency Supply.
RAF Ground Support.
Land Combat Odds (to Break through to the encircled and isolated von Bock and his armies).
(1) 90% chance after fractional that blitz odds are +2B & PWIN=55%
(2) 10% chance that they will be +3B & PWIN=64%.
- 05-AX-MTO-CL-1.png (36.97 KiB) Viewed 595 times
- 05-AX-MTO-von-Bock-Emergency-Supply.png (859.14 KiB) Viewed 595 times
- 05-AX-MTO-W1-Venice-GSPT.png (356.93 KiB) Viewed 595 times
(1) 90% chance after fractional that blitz odds are +2B & PWIN=55%
(2) 10% chance that they will be +3B & PWIN=64%.
- 05-AX-MTO-W1-Venice-Odds.png (43.47 KiB) Viewed 595 times
Ronnie
Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.
Turn 24. May/June 1943. MTO. Axis #5.
LC W1-Venice, Italy. Fractional.
(1) Fractional D100 = 65 < 100 -> Germany makes their fractional!
(2) LC now +3B with 64% PWIN!
(3) Germany is more hopeful and the Western Allies are more worried and gloomy.
(4) Whom will the god of dice favor?
LC W1-Venice, Italy. Fractional.
(1) Fractional D100 = 65 < 100 -> Germany makes their fractional!
(2) LC now +3B with 64% PWIN!
(3) Germany is more hopeful and the Western Allies are more worried and gloomy.
(4) Whom will the god of dice favor?
- 05-MTO-W1-Venice-Odds-Given-Fractional.png (36.17 KiB) Viewed 592 times
Ronnie
Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.
Turn 24. May/June 1943. MTO. Axis #5.
Land Combat Resolution.
End of Impulse.
Land Combat Resolution.
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Ronnie
Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.
Turn 24. Jul/Aug 1943. Allied #7. Actions.
Command Actions Inputs to Combine Chiefs of Staff.
(1) 37% chance that this is the last allied impulse of the turn (10% chance turn ends this impulse, 30% ends next (axis) impulse).
(2) Allied Atlantic Command "forcefully" reminds the Combine Chiefs of Staff of the pressing need to replace:
(a) 7 CPs in CSV,
(b) 1 CP in East Med (absolutely necessary to maintain supply through East Med after end of turn, RTB),
(c) 2 CPs in Arabian Sea (1 absolutely necessary to to maintain supply through Arabian Sea after end of turn, RTB),
(d) 2 CPs in Coral Sea.
(3) Which requires CW naval action to accomplish.
(4) However; Allied MTO command points out there are still 12 of 16 saved German BPs up for grabs in Trieste & Rome.
(5) Also, the CW & US need to tighten their isolation of von Bock and his forces or risk a breakout, or actually a break into if the axis move first next turn.
(6) At the very least MTO command is urgently requesting (at a minimum) USA combine/land, CW land, Free French land this impulse for a good shot to take Trieste, 4 save BPs & strengthen von Bock's isolation.
(7) Then, if the allies get the 63% chance of another impulse this turn, USA combine/land, CW combine/land, Free French land is required to have a shot at capturing Rome and 8 saved BPs.
MTO (Start of (Impulse).
Allied Actions.
(8) Allied Combine Chiefs of Staff, with the exception of Ernest King (USN) & Andrew Cunningham (RN), accept allied MTO action requests.
(9) They do send an query back to MTO is there's a reasonable shot at Rome this impulse.
(10) The answer back for MTO Command is less than 20% with significant risk of loss.
(11) Even with only 63% of getting another impulse, the best chance is to wait, hope the turn continues and assault Rome with more forces next allied impulse.
(12) Allied Pacific command request a combine in the hopes of continuing their naval attacks in the China Sea.
(13) Fleet Admiral Ernest King was clear on this point even though another query was send to MTO command to ask if a US combine would suffice.
(14) Not wanting to alienate Adm King, and being able to make due to a US combine, MTO responded in the affirmative that a US combine action would suffice for their needs.
Command Actions Inputs to Combine Chiefs of Staff.
- 02-AL-Commands.png (226.18 KiB) Viewed 543 times
(2) Allied Atlantic Command "forcefully" reminds the Combine Chiefs of Staff of the pressing need to replace:
(a) 7 CPs in CSV,
(b) 1 CP in East Med (absolutely necessary to maintain supply through East Med after end of turn, RTB),
(c) 2 CPs in Arabian Sea (1 absolutely necessary to to maintain supply through Arabian Sea after end of turn, RTB),
(d) 2 CPs in Coral Sea.
(3) Which requires CW naval action to accomplish.
(4) However; Allied MTO command points out there are still 12 of 16 saved German BPs up for grabs in Trieste & Rome.
(5) Also, the CW & US need to tighten their isolation of von Bock and his forces or risk a breakout, or actually a break into if the axis move first next turn.
(6) At the very least MTO command is urgently requesting (at a minimum) USA combine/land, CW land, Free French land this impulse for a good shot to take Trieste, 4 save BPs & strengthen von Bock's isolation.
(7) Then, if the allies get the 63% chance of another impulse this turn, USA combine/land, CW combine/land, Free French land is required to have a shot at capturing Rome and 8 saved BPs.
MTO (Start of (Impulse).
- 07-AL-MTO-SOI.png (1.18 MiB) Viewed 543 times
(8) Allied Combine Chiefs of Staff, with the exception of Ernest King (USN) & Andrew Cunningham (RN), accept allied MTO action requests.
(9) They do send an query back to MTO is there's a reasonable shot at Rome this impulse.
(10) The answer back for MTO Command is less than 20% with significant risk of loss.
(11) Even with only 63% of getting another impulse, the best chance is to wait, hope the turn continues and assault Rome with more forces next allied impulse.
(12) Allied Pacific command request a combine in the hopes of continuing their naval attacks in the China Sea.
(13) Fleet Admiral Ernest King was clear on this point even though another query was send to MTO command to ask if a US combine would suffice.
(14) Not wanting to alienate Adm King, and being able to make due to a US combine, MTO responded in the affirmative that a US combine action would suffice for their needs.
- 07-AL-Actions.png (36.25 KiB) Viewed 543 times
Ronnie
Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.
Turn 24. Jul/Aug 1943. Allied #7. Naval Combat. No Search. No Combat. 1/2.
(1) Before turning the China Sea and whether or not the naval searches find, let's take care of the "No Search, No Combat" Sea Areas and the implications of no RN naval so far this turn.
Coral Sea.
[Rain] No search, no combat. The Western Allies still need to replace the 2 CPs lost in the Coral Sea earlier this turn. Looks less and less likely that the CW will take their needed naval.
Arabian Sea.
[Storm] No search, no combat. Pressing need, for critical supply line to the Middle East & Southern USSR, to replace at least of 1 of the 2 CPs lost in the Arabian Sea earlier this turn. At best there's a 63% chance that the allies will get another impulse this turn, the CW MAY take a combine & replace 1 of 2 CPs lost.
Cape St. Vincent.
[Fine] No search, no combat. It's estimated that there's less than a 20% chance that the CW will take the require naval this turn and be able to replace the 7 CPs sunk & aborted from CSV earlier this turn. Though high priority, the situation in Italy, especially capturing as many saved BPs from Germany as possible is a significantly higher priority.
(1) Before turning the China Sea and whether or not the naval searches find, let's take care of the "No Search, No Combat" Sea Areas and the implications of no RN naval so far this turn.
Coral Sea.
[Rain] No search, no combat. The Western Allies still need to replace the 2 CPs lost in the Coral Sea earlier this turn. Looks less and less likely that the CW will take their needed naval.
- 07-AL-PTO-Coral-Sea-NS-NC.png (193.43 KiB) Viewed 535 times
[Storm] No search, no combat. Pressing need, for critical supply line to the Middle East & Southern USSR, to replace at least of 1 of the 2 CPs lost in the Arabian Sea earlier this turn. At best there's a 63% chance that the allies will get another impulse this turn, the CW MAY take a combine & replace 1 of 2 CPs lost.
- 07-AL-PTO-Arabian-Sea-NS-NC.png (189.5 KiB) Viewed 535 times
[Fine] No search, no combat. It's estimated that there's less than a 20% chance that the CW will take the require naval this turn and be able to replace the 7 CPs sunk & aborted from CSV earlier this turn. Though high priority, the situation in Italy, especially capturing as many saved BPs from Germany as possible is a significantly higher priority.
- 07-AL-BAO-Cape-St-Vincent-NS-NC.png (183.7 KiB) Viewed 535 times
Ronnie
Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.
Turn 24. Jul/Aug 1943. Allied #7. Naval Combat. No Search. No Combat. 2/2.
West Med.
[Fine] No search, no combat. Supply situation through the CSV, West Med, Italian Coast to Italy & Balkans still running but tenuous.
East Med.
[Fine] No search, no combat. Unless the CP lost earlier this turn is replaced before this turn ends, supply through the East Med will be broken and the USN TRS Gp in 0-box will be forced to RTB. At best 63% chance that the allies will get anothern impulse and (llikely) the CW will take a combine to put a CP in the East Med.
West Med.
[Fine] No search, no combat. Supply situation through the CSV, West Med, Italian Coast to Italy & Balkans still running but tenuous.
- 07-AL-MTO-West-Med-NS-NC.png (206.69 KiB) Viewed 533 times
[Fine] No search, no combat. Unless the CP lost earlier this turn is replaced before this turn ends, supply through the East Med will be broken and the USN TRS Gp in 0-box will be forced to RTB. At best 63% chance that the allies will get anothern impulse and (llikely) the CW will take a combine to put a CP in the East Med.
- 07-AL-MTO-East-Med-NS-NC.png (188.95 KiB) Viewed 533 times
Ronnie
Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.
Turn 24. Jul/Aug 1943. Allied #7. PTO. China Sea.
(1) The USN will search in the China Sea, which was the whole purpose of taking a combine vs land.
(2) Will it pan out for the USN?
(3) USN PBM-1 Mariner N3[4] searches. No USA air reactions, Free French do NOT commit sub Gp.
(1) The USN will search in the China Sea, which was the whole purpose of taking a combine vs land.
(2) Will it pan out for the USN?
(3) USN PBM-1 Mariner N3[4] searches. No USA air reactions, Free French do NOT commit sub Gp.
- 07-AL-PTO-China-Sea-NC-1.png (257.13 KiB) Viewed 532 times
Ronnie
Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.
Turn 24. Jul/Aug 1943. Allied #7. China Sea.
Naval Combat. Round 1 (1/2).
Naval Combat. Round 1 (1/2).
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- 07-AL-PTO-China-Sea-NC-1b.png (220.26 KiB) Viewed 530 times
- 07-AL-PTO-China-Sea-NC-1c.png (226.75 KiB) Viewed 530 times
- 07-AL-PTO-China-Sea-NC-1d.png (191.29 KiB) Viewed 530 times
Ronnie
Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.
Turn 24. Jul/Aug 1943. Allied #7. China Sea.
Naval Combat. Round 1 (2/2).
Round 2. (1/2).
Naval Combat. Round 1 (2/2).
- 07-AL-PTO-China-Sea-NC-1e.png (229.51 KiB) Viewed 529 times
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- 07-AL-PTO-China-Sea-CL-2.png (99.61 KiB) Viewed 529 times
- 07-AL-PTO-China-Sea-NC-2.png (209.8 KiB) Viewed 529 times
Ronnie
Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.
Turn 24. Jul/Aug 1943. Allied #7. China Sea.
Naval Combat. Round 2 (2/2).
Round 3.
Both searches fail to find with USN=9 & IJN=4 and another epic carrier air battle between the USN & IJN comes to a conclusion.
Naval Combat. Round 2 (2/2).
- 07-AL-PTO-China-Sea-NC-2b.png (210.67 KiB) Viewed 528 times
- 07-AL-PTO-China-Sea-NC-2c.png (273.68 KiB) Viewed 528 times
- 07-AL-PTO-China-Sea-NC-2d.png (177.53 KiB) Viewed 528 times
Both searches fail to find with USN=9 & IJN=4 and another epic carrier air battle between the USN & IJN comes to a conclusion.
- 07-AL-PTO-China-Sea-NC-3.png (207.75 KiB) Viewed 528 times
Ronnie
Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.
Turn 24. Jul/Aug 1943. Allied #7. PTO.
Asian Theater. China (Post Naval Combat/Pre Land Moves).
(1) All supply and oil cut to all Japanese units outside of the Home Islands and NOT at sea.
(2) This significantly includes China giving the CCP several options of counterattacks.
USN Strategic Bombing of Tokyo.
(3) To rub more salt in Japan's wounds ...
Asian Theater. China (Post Naval Combat/Pre Land Moves).
(1) All supply and oil cut to all Japanese units outside of the Home Islands and NOT at sea.
(2) This significantly includes China giving the CCP several options of counterattacks.
- 07-AL-Asian-China-Post-NC.png (1.98 MiB) Viewed 527 times
(3) To rub more salt in Japan's wounds ...
- 07-AL-PTO-STRAT-Tokyo.png (364.72 KiB) Viewed 527 times
Ronnie
Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.
Turn 24. Jul/Aug 1943. Allied #7.
Eastern Front, Southern Fronts. & Middle East.
(1) Soviet Southern Fronts pull back in towards Baku and the Caspian Sea in anticipation of Turkey's entry as a Germany ally.
(2) In the Middle East, the merge Western Allied forces also brace for this event.
East Africa.
(3) Gort and his forces in Ethiopia move for repositioning likely to the Middle East, as soon as transport is available.
(4) It's a whack a mole, knock one or two axis powers (Italy & Ethiopia) and another pops up (Turkey).
Eastern Front, Southern Fronts. & Middle East.
(1) Soviet Southern Fronts pull back in towards Baku and the Caspian Sea in anticipation of Turkey's entry as a Germany ally.
(2) In the Middle East, the merge Western Allied forces also brace for this event.
- 07-AL-Southern-USSR-Middle-East-EOI.png (1.85 MiB) Viewed 521 times
(3) Gort and his forces in Ethiopia move for repositioning likely to the Middle East, as soon as transport is available.
(4) It's a whack a mole, knock one or two axis powers (Italy & Ethiopia) and another pops up (Turkey).
- 07-AL-East-Africa-Ethipioa.png (1.75 MiB) Viewed 521 times
Ronnie