GW Counterfactual Take 3.

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rkr1958
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Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.

Post by rkr1958 »

Turn 24. Jul/Aug 1943. Allied #7.

Eastern Front. Siberian Fronts.
(1) Well these fronts look stable, for now at least.
(2) The Soviets are, though bloodied, are still in the fight.
07-AL-Eastern-Siberian-EOI.png
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Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.

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Turn 24. Jul/Aug 1943. Allied #7. Asian Front. China.

Land Combat.
(1) CCP launches a counter attack and breaking the isolation of Sian enclave.
(2) If Japan's supply problems continue, if the USN can continue to sink their CPs, then the CCP looks to transition to the offensive and wreak what havoc they can on the Japanese forces in China.
(3) A significant number of which are isolated, flipped and won't reorg this turn.
07-AL-Asian-CCP-W1-Sian-LC.png
07-AL-Asian-CCP-W1-Sian-LC.png (251 KiB) Viewed 645 times
End of Impulse.
07-AL-Asian-China-EOI.png
07-AL-Asian-China-EOI.png (1.96 MiB) Viewed 645 times
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Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.

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Turn 24. Jul/Aug 1943. Allied #7. MTO.
07-AL-MTO-CL.png
07-AL-MTO-CL.png (179.01 KiB) Viewed 640 times
Land Combat (1/2).
07-AL-MTO-Venice-SW1-LC-1.png
07-AL-MTO-Venice-SW1-LC-1.png (267.69 KiB) Viewed 640 times
07-AL-MTO-SE1-Leghorn-LC-2.png
07-AL-MTO-SE1-Leghorn-LC-2.png (207.19 KiB) Viewed 640 times
07-AL-MTO-E1-Leghorn-LC-3.png
07-AL-MTO-E1-Leghorn-LC-3.png (210.13 KiB) Viewed 640 times
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Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.

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Turn 24. Jul/Aug 1943. Allied #7. MTO.

Land Combat (2/2). Trieste, Italy.
07-AL-MTO-Trieste-LC-4.png
07-AL-MTO-Trieste-LC-4.png (257.6 KiB) Viewed 639 times
Naval Overrun/Intercept (1/2).
07-AL-MTO-Trieste-LC-4-INT.png
07-AL-MTO-Trieste-LC-4-INT.png (174.35 KiB) Viewed 639 times
07-AL-MTO-Trieste-LC-4-INT-2.png
07-AL-MTO-Trieste-LC-4-INT-2.png (156.52 KiB) Viewed 639 times
07-AL-MTO-Trieste-LC-4-INT-3.png
07-AL-MTO-Trieste-LC-4-INT-3.png (132.01 KiB) Viewed 639 times
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Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.

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Turn 24. Jul/Aug 1943. Allied #7. MTO.

Land Combat (2/2). Trieste, Italy.

Naval Overrun/Intercept (2/2).
07-AL-MTO-Trieste-LC-4-INT-4.png
07-AL-MTO-Trieste-LC-4-INT-4.png (224.58 KiB) Viewed 638 times
07-AL-MTO-Trieste-LC-4-INT-5.png
07-AL-MTO-Trieste-LC-4-INT-5.png (232.29 KiB) Viewed 638 times
07-AL-MTO-Trieste-LC-4-INT-6.png
07-AL-MTO-Trieste-LC-4-INT-6.png (187.18 KiB) Viewed 638 times
End of Impulse.
07-AL-MTO-Balkans-EOI.png
07-AL-MTO-Balkans-EOI.png (1.72 MiB) Viewed 638 times
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Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.

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Turn 24. Jul/Aug 1943. Axis #9. Weather & Actions.

(1) Turn continues (Allied #7) on D10=2 vs 1 to end.
(2) Weather w/Adv=2 & DRM=+2 is D10=7+2 = 9, which gets the Jul/Aug weather back on the expected track.
(3) That is, fine across the map except of storm in the north monsoon.
(4) However, 2 (expected) less impulses this turn due to modified weather roll of 11 last impulse pair.
(5) German takes a land, will align Turkey and Japan passes.
(6) 40% chance turn ends.
(7) Action continues tomorrow ...
09-AX-Weather-Actions.png
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Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.

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Turn 24. Jul/Aug 1943. Axis #9. The Eastern Front. Southern Army Groups.

Germany Aligns Turkey.
1. Germany with 5 corps in the USSR on the border with Turkey (only 4 needed) is given the opportunity and does indeed align Turkey.
2. BP Gain to Germany -> Navy (5) + Air Force (9) + Army (30) = 44 BPs. Turkey deploys 1 BB, 1 CP, 1 Bomber L3 & 1 Fighter F2 wing, 2 Garr, 3 inf corps, 1 inf div, 1 Mtn corps, 1 Cav, 1 Mot & 1 Mech corps, 1 HQ-I.
3. Turkey get in next turn's reinforcements 2 MIL (1 Istanbul & 1 Ankara).
4. Due to FTC, 7 of 13 Turkish land & air units may move outside of Turkey.

Southern Army Group. War Directives.
09-AX-Eastern-Southern-AGs-War-Directives.png
09-AX-Eastern-Southern-AGs-War-Directives.png (102.05 KiB) Viewed 594 times
Turkish Mobilization and Invasion Plans.
(1) Fleet (BB & CP) to Istanbul, which will get a MIL during next turn's reinforcement.
(2) 2 inf corps, 2 garr, 1 FTR F2 wing (5 of 6 units that must remain in Turkey this turn) deploy and dig in (defensively) on the border with Syria to discourage and, if necessary, protect against the Western Allies in Syria, which currently isn't much of a threat.
(3) A-30 L3 wing bases at Trabzan (6 of 6 units that must remain in Turkey) and will ground strike OOS & isolated Soviet Mtn corps (30% chance to flip).
(4) Gd Inf & Alp Mtn corps deploy in the Mtns on the Georgia & Azerbaijan border with the mission to flip rail way control in order to support supply to the Turkish General Inonu who will supply the force of mech, mot, cav corps & inf div that will blitz Soviet mot army & eng div in Azerbaijan 130km outside of Baku.
(5) Inonu forces and their blitz has an estimated 75.5% PWIN.
(6) Definitely a bold plan but one that if it succeeds given the assumed success of other blitz and assault land combats by the Southern Army Groups will go a long way to support the annihilation of retreating Soviet (and UK) forces in Georgia & Azerbaijan.
09-AX-Eastern-Southern-AG-Post-Turkey-Alignment-and-Deployment.png
09-AX-Eastern-Southern-AG-Post-Turkey-Alignment-and-Deployment.png (1.56 MiB) Viewed 594 times
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Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.

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Turn 24. Jul/Aug 1943. Axis #9. Actions (Revised).

Soviet Embassy. Tokyo.

(1) After hearing of Japan's intention to pass this impulse, the Soviet ambassador in Japan fires off an urgent telegraph in the open to the Soviet foreign minister Vyacheslav Molotov in Perm informing Molotov and Stalin of Japan's intention.
(2) Specifically to pass without addressing Japan's breech of their non-aggression pact with the USSR.
(3) This in light of Japan's promise to address that breech this axis impulse with an agreed upon remedy of railing Japan's 2nd tank army from Changsha to Manchurian frontier with the USSR.
(4) Molotov fires back an ultimatum, also in the open and easily read by Japanese intelligence services, that if Japan does NOT correct their breech with the agreed upon remedy this impulse, that a state of war will exist between Japan and the USSR.
(5) While the actual threat from Soviet forces to such a war is minimal at this time given the Soviet troubles in Georgia & Azerbaijan, there's a broader and negative implication for Japan.
(6) While not "officially" included in the language of their current non-aggression pact, and prior non-aggression informal agreement, no Soviet ally or ally-controlled units have been allowed to enter or even flyover Soviet controlled hexes on the Manchuria & Korean frontier with Japan.
(7) Naoake Sato, on behalf of his government, even before official recognition of the receiving the Soviet ultimate from Molotov on the behalf of Joseph Stalin, issues a correction that Japan will be taking a land action and NOT passing.
(8) He also states that Japan WILL correct their breech with respect to the Japanese-USSR non-aggression pact agreement AND proposes the following be (officially) added to that agreement:
(a) While in effect, no Soviet ally or ally-controlled unit may enter even via FTC or flyover any Soviet Asian controlled hex east of the hex row (inclusive) running through Ulan-Ude (row 135).
(b) Similarly, while in effect, no Japanese ally or ally-controlled unit may enter even via FTC or flyover any Japanese controlled hex in Manchuria, Korea or China.
(9) Molotov, on the behalf, of Premier Stalin OFFICALLY aggress that Japan is in compliance IF the tank army is railed to the frontier THIS impulse and to the inclusion of the above language.
(10) Both Japan and the USSR officially ignore that Molotov's ultimate was ever send, which allows the Japanese Imperial government, and more significantly, Japan's emperor to "save face".
(11) Both Germany & Japan take land actions and this turn has a 30% (vs 40%) chance of ending.
(12) Berlin is NOT happy with Japan's action change from pass to land; specifically given that Germany wished to maximize the chance that the allies do NOT get another impulse this turn (i.e., turn ends this impulse).
(13) If the allies do get another impulse this turn, then it's almost a certainty that German will lose Rome and the 8 BPs saved there.
(14) Also, this will allow the allies to send out CW CPs in the East Med & Arabian Sea (assuming a CW combine) and maintain supply lines through those two sea areas during RTB and into the start of next turn.
09-AX-Weather-Actions-Revised.png
09-AX-Weather-Actions-Revised.png (42.18 KiB) Viewed 586 times
HR 3. Soviet & Japanese Uneasy Peace in Asia. (G 11)
The USSR & Japan will meet the garrison requirements laid out in the table below. Units must be within 3-hexes of an enemy (i.e., Soviet or Japanese as appropriate) controlled hex to satisfy these garrison requirements. Any unmet requirement must be remedied as quickly as possible using the necessary land, air and/or sea actions. Neither side can DOW the other until Jan/Feb 1945 (turn 33). Units may only be moved out from the garrison frontier (i.e., within 3-hexes of enemy controlled hex) when in full compliance with garrison requirements.
While in effect, no Soviet ally or ally-controlled unit may enter even via FTC or flyover any Soviet Asian controlled hex east of the hex row (inclusive) running through Ulan-Ude (row 135). Similarly, while in effect, no Japanese ally or ally-controlled unit may enter even via FTC or flyover any Japanese controlled hex in Manchuria, Korea or China.
USSR & Japan Garrison Requirements & Compliance Matrices.
09-AX-Asian-Japan-Garr-Reqt-Compliance-Matrix.png
09-AX-Asian-Japan-Garr-Reqt-Compliance-Matrix.png (67.75 KiB) Viewed 586 times
09-AX-Asian-USSR-Asian-Garr-Reqt-Compliance-Matrix.png
09-AX-Asian-USSR-Asian-Garr-Reqt-Compliance-Matrix.png (77.64 KiB) Viewed 586 times
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Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.

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Turn 24. Jul/Aug 1943. Axis #9. Asian Theater. Manchurian, Korean Frontier.

(1) Next, and final, compliance epoch is Turn 29, May/June 1944 (5 turns from now).
(2) No additional Soviet units need to be brought in, in fact their gun div and inf div will no longer be required for the garrison (in 5 turns).
(3) Japan's tank army will no longer be required but a mech army will.
(4) They currently have 2 damaged transports in dry dock.
(5) Will Japan be able to get a mech army to China/Manchuria.
(6) Well, that's 5 turns a way. The mech is already built but is/will be in Japan.
09-AX-Asian-Manchuria-Korea-Frontier.png
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Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.

Post by rkr1958 »

Turn 24. Jul/Aug 1943. Axis #9. MTO. Balkans.

Balkans.
(1) SS Weisser (vol) MIL. Railed from Poland (garrison) to Zagreb, Yugoslavia.
(2) Munich MIL. Railed from Freerikshavn, Denmark to Zagreb, Yugoslavia.
(3) German & Bulgarian forces still maintain a blocking force line of troops in Bosnia.
(4) The line is getting thin with only a inf & AT div holding two of the mountain frontline hexes.

Austria.
(5) Armor & Mech corps headed to northern Italy were diverted to the Austrian Alps to block key passes leading from Italy & the Balkans into Germany (Austria).

MTO.
(6) 3 organized Luftwaffe F/B wing & 1 night fighter wing which have been assigned to MTO/Balkans command.
(7) Those out of position will be rebased to air bases within F/B support range.
09-AX-MTO-Balkans-Post-LM.png
09-AX-MTO-Balkans-Post-LM.png (1.98 MiB) Viewed 571 times
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Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.

Post by rkr1958 »

Turn 24. Jul/Aug 1943. Axis #9. Land Combat Declaration.

(1) Lots of action on the Eastern front with 2 assault & 3 blitz land combats.
(2) 1 assault & 1 blitz for Siberian Army Groups.
(3) 1 assault & 2 blitz for Southern Army Groups.
(4) NOTE: Inona's staff make a significant planning error in their +4.5 blitz.
(5) They planned based on D=1 (1 defending units) vs actual D=2.
(6) This resulted in an 50% PWIN actual vs 75.5% planned.
(7) However; given the lateness of the turn, combat across the entire Eastern Front and the significance of a blitz victory just 150 km outside of Baku, Inona orders the blitz.
(8) Also, he definitely wants to save face with his new German allies.
(9) Victory here will be a great victory for Turkey and for Inona's future career as a politician.

CORRECTION.
(10) 1 assault & 3 (not 2) blitz for Southern Army Groups.
(11) Unreported LC blitz was declared but not report in the below table.
09-AX-Eastern-LC-Declarations.png
09-AX-Eastern-LC-Declarations.png (60.46 KiB) Viewed 554 times
Siberian Army Groups.
09-AX-Eastern-Siberian-Army-Groups-LC-Declaration.png
09-AX-Eastern-Siberian-Army-Groups-LC-Declaration.png (1.33 MiB) Viewed 570 times
Southern Army Groups.
09-AX-Eastern-Southern-AGs-LC-Declaration.png
09-AX-Eastern-Southern-AGs-LC-Declaration.png (1.73 MiB) Viewed 570 times

Time for dinner ... to be continued ... that is, resolution of all the attacks ...
Last edited by rkr1958 on Sun May 12, 2024 12:29 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.

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Turn 24. Jul/Aug 1944. The Eastern Front. Overrun of Soviet Black Sea Fleet (AGAIN).

(1) Forgot to report on this.
(2) Wehrmacht LXXI inf corps overruns the last Soviet naval base on the Black Sea at Novorossiysk and run by Nazi collaborators.
(3) The hope is to turn elements of the Soviet Black Sea fleet to Germany's side.
(4) Overrun resolution: flipped & OSS
(a) Sub Sq 4551=2 -> also captured but in the end the Sub Sq makes way to sea & scuttles (destroyed)
(b) CA Krasnyi Kaykaz=6 -> escapes only to scuttle with no place to go
(c) BB Parizhskaya Kommuna=6 -> also escapes with no place to go and scuttles.
(5) No defections for the Soviet Black Sea Fleet, with all (surviving) elements scuttling themselves.
09-AX-SOviet-Black-Sea-Fleet.png
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Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.

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Turn 24. Jul/Aug 1943. Axis #9. Siberian Army Groups.

Land Combat Resolution.
09-AX-Eastern-Siberian-LC-CL.png
09-AX-Eastern-Siberian-LC-CL.png (72.08 KiB) Viewed 551 times
09-AX-Eastern-LC-1-Vologda.png
09-AX-Eastern-LC-1-Vologda.png (278.5 KiB) Viewed 551 times
09-AX-Eastern-LC-2-Siberia-38-78.png
09-AX-Eastern-LC-2-Siberia-38-78.png (260.75 KiB) Viewed 551 times
End of Impulse.
09-AX-Eastern-Siberian-Army-Groups-EOI.png
09-AX-Eastern-Siberian-Army-Groups-EOI.png (1.32 MiB) Viewed 551 times
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Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.

Post by rkr1958 »

Turn 24. Jul/Aug 1943. Axis #9. Southern Army Groups.

Land Combat Resolution (1/2).
09-AX-Eastern-Southern-LC-CL.png
09-AX-Eastern-Southern-LC-CL.png (113.28 KiB) Viewed 550 times
09-AX-Eastern-LC-3-Caucasas-Mtn-61-67.png
09-AX-Eastern-LC-3-Caucasas-Mtn-61-67.png (248.78 KiB) Viewed 550 times
09-X-Eastern-LC-4-Georgia-62-71.png
09-X-Eastern-LC-4-Georgia-62-71.png (247.76 KiB) Viewed 550 times
09-AX-Eastern-LC-5-Azerbaijan-62-73.png
09-AX-Eastern-LC-5-Azerbaijan-62-73.png (265.17 KiB) Viewed 550 times
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Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.

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Turn 24. Jul/Aug 1943. Axis #9. Southern Army Groups.

Land Combat Resolution (2/2).
09-AX-Eastern-LC-6-Azerbaijan-67-75.png
09-AX-Eastern-LC-6-Azerbaijan-67-75.png (267.52 KiB) Viewed 549 times
End of Impulse.
09-AX-Eastern-Southern-Army-Groups-EOI.png
09-AX-Eastern-Southern-Army-Groups-EOI.png (1.83 MiB) Viewed 549 times
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Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.

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Turn 24. Jul/Aug 1943. Axis #9. End of Turn Check. Prelude.

(1) 30% chance turn ends.
(2) Germany & Japan both want the turn to end.
(3) All the allies want to the turn to continue.
(4) Will the fact that Japan had to take an action with a rail and not pass have an impact?
(5) That is 30% vs 40% chance turn ends if Japan could have passed.
(6) I'm enjoying my after dinner whiskey, organizing some of my screen cap and will roll in moment.
(7) How are folks enjoying the "real-time" nature of my AAR vs the old format?
(8) It's definitely adding more suspense to my play than before when I reported an entire turn at once.
(9) Another point I'd like to make is that I'm glad MWIF is doing all the calculations as it's not uncommon for me to make errors in my land combat odds calculation.
(10) Is it just me, or are these common errors when playing over vassal or with cardboard and paper?
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Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.

Post by rkr1958 »

Turn 24. Jul/Aug 1943. Allied #10. Actions.

(1) Turn continues on D10(3) = 6.
(2) It's time to relax for the evening ...
(3) Planned allied actions are: land - USSR, China, Free France. Combine-CW & USA.
(4) CW plans to use their combine to get 1 CP to East Med and 1 CP to the Arabian Sea.
(5) The USA plans to use their combine to continue going after the shirking IJN fleet in the China Sea[2].
10-AL-Actions.png
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Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.

Post by Angeldust2 »

rkr1958 wrote: Sun May 12, 2024 1:26 am Turn 24. Jul/Aug 1943. Axis #9. End of Turn Check. Prelude.
(7) How are folks enjoying the "real-time" nature of my AAR vs the old format?
(8) It's definitely adding more suspense to my play than before when I reported an entire turn at once.
(9) Another point I'd like to make is that I'm glad MWIF is doing all the calculations as it's not uncommon for me to make errors in my land combat odds calculation.
(10) Is it just me, or are these common errors when playing over vassal or with cardboard and paper?
7) Liked your former format better, as explained before and by yourself.
10) Yes. In the boardgame there are countless mistakes and errors happening all the time. Counters are moved unintentionally into a neighbouring hex, units are moved twice or movement is not counted properly, odds are not calculated correctly and so on. You can witness these issues even with the most experienced players at WIF Cons. Or you can discover them in AAR with pictures. This is one of the main strength (among others) of MWIF vs WIF, that MWIF is an impartial judge on all moves and combats and rules application in general.
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Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.

Post by rkr1958 »

Angeldust2 wrote: Sun May 12, 2024 7:00 am
rkr1958 wrote: Sun May 12, 2024 1:26 am Turn 24. Jul/Aug 1943. Axis #9. End of Turn Check. Prelude.
(7) How are folks enjoying the "real-time" nature of my AAR vs the old format?
(8) It's definitely adding more suspense to my play than before when I reported an entire turn at once.
(9) Another point I'd like to make is that I'm glad MWIF is doing all the calculations as it's not uncommon for me to make errors in my land combat odds calculation.
(10) Is it just me, or are these common errors when playing over vassal or with cardboard and paper?
7) Liked your former format better, as explained before and by yourself.
10) Yes. In the boardgame there are countless mistakes and errors happening all the time. Counters are moved unintentionally into a neighbouring hex, units are moved twice or movement is not counted properly, odds are not calculated correctly and so on. You can witness these issues even with the most experienced players at WIF Cons. Or you can discover them in AAR with pictures. This is one of the main strength (among others) of MWIF vs WIF, that MWIF is an impartial judge on all moves and combats and rules application in general.
Thanks for following and I do appreciate you comments as always!

I also apologize for the format change. :(

However; I'm finding that it's sharpening my play, analysis and AAR reports. Well, all of that at least in my mind. I'll let you guys be the judge whether or not all that (i.e., play, analysis, reporting) are sharper than before. I do encourage feedback & dialogue, even constructive criticism, on that or everything else. (Anyone) fire at will ...
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Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.

Post by rkr1958 »

Turn 24. Jul/Aug 1943. Allied #10. Allied Commands.

Changes.
(1) Allied Atlantic Command (ANC) is now know as the Allied Naval Command.
(2) The ANC covers all allied naval forces in all theaters except for the Pacific (PTO) except for convoys.
(3) The ANC does have responsibility for ALL convoy routing and protection, even in the Pacific.
(4) The Allied Southern USSR BEF command is on the verge of annihilation (Lord Gort & IND Terr) and has been given permission to surrender.
(5) Lord Gort has been ordered by PM Churchill back to London for a conference.
(6) It'll be Lord Gort's deputy commander that will formally surrender.
(7) A new command, the Allied Balkan Command has been created.
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