GW Counterfactual Take 3.

[rkr1958]

Turn 25. Sep/Oct 1943. Allied #1.

Anglo-American Allied Command Structure (9/1/1943, rev 3).
(1) I decided to "formalized" command structure in powerpoint.
(2) I'm using this command structure to "structure" plans, action types, moves and combat.
(3) Surprisingly, I'm finding its very helpful in my solo & counterfactual play.
(4) I need to do this for the other major powers.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 25. Sep/Oct 1943. Asian Theater. USSR, Japanese Non-Aggression Pact.

USSR Compliance Matrix.

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USSR Compliance Delta (29MJ44 vs 24JA43 Epochs).
(1) -1 gun div, +2 CAs.
(2) Just noticed that the Soviets have an inf div on the frontier that isn't necessary for current or future compliance and may be railed to the Eastern Front given rail priorities.
(3) The bigger issue is the 2 CAs required for the future (24JA43) epoch.
(4) The USSR has 4 CAs (Maxim Gorkiy, Molotov, Chapayev, Zhelezniakow) in their construction pool.
(5) The issue is that it takes 5 turns to build (2nd cycle), which meant 2 of those 4 CAs should have been build in order to deploy 29MJ44.
(6) A production oversight by the Soviets indeed, which was corrected at this point.

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Soviet Production (24JA43) Correction.
(1) 1 of 2 cav corps randomly drawn to return from production (27JF44) to force pool, which returned 2 BPs.
(2) CA Maxim Gorkiy, 2nd Cycle produced (24JA43) for 1 BP & CA Molotov, 2nd cycle produced (24JA43) for free=1BP.
(3) (3) Both CAs are now in 2nd cycle production and will arrive 27JF44.
(4) Remaining returned BP (both CAs due to free naval builds only cost 1 BP) saved to Irkutsk.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 25. Sep/Oct 1943. Allied #1. Actions.

Naval Command Needs.

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(1) RN naval action REQUIRED.
(2) Restore supply through Arabian Sea & East Med to Anglo-American troops in Middle East & Southern USSR.
(3) Need to restore lost/aborted CPs for full production & max saved oil.
(4) 80% chance Germany will be required to take combine/naval next (axis) impulse, 100% if ASW escorts aren't put out.
(5) Need ASW escorts & patrols.
(6) USN & Free French naval actions REQUESTED.

MTO & Balkan Command Needs.
(7) Western Allies need to "hard close" the noose south of Po River (La Spezia <-> Venice <-> Trieste FLOT) on isolated German troops (including OOS & flipped von Bock).
(8) US land action REQUIRED.
(9) Free French need 1 LM to get ground troop to Leghorn, Italy.
(10) Free French need 1 LM to capture Dubrovnik, Yugoslavia to get De Gaulle's Balkan Army Group back in supply.
(11) REQUIRE Free French land or combine.

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Weather Forecast (Allied #5).

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Combine Chiefs of Staff.
To Naval Command.
(12) RN Naval Action - APPROVED.
(13) USN & Free French Naval Action - DISAPPROVED.
(14) Free French - Combine action - Authorized.

To MTO & Balkan Commands.
(15) US Land Action - APPROVED.
(16) Free French Combine Action - APPROVED.

Actions.
Impulse #178. Land - USA, USSR, China. Combine - Free France. Naval - CW. 0% turn ends.

[rkr1958]

Turn 25. Sep/Oct 1943. Allied #1.

Allied Joint Naval Command.

Production/Convoy Summary (Pre Naval Move).
(1) No supply through East Med.
(2) No supply through Arabian Sea.
(3) CW Production
(a) 23/23 Factories Producing.
(b) 2/3 Food in Flames RP.
(c) 3/3 LL BPs -> Free France.
(d) 3/6 Oil used for production.
(e) 4 RP (non-oil) idle.
(4) USA Production
(a) 43/43 Factories Producing.
(b) 6/6 LL BPs -> USSR.
(c) 2/2 LL BPs -> Free France.
(d) 14/23 Oil used for production.
(e) 0 RP (non-oil) idle.
(5) Need Supply CP Timor Sea.

CP Moves & RTBs.
(1) 4 CPs RTB to Liverpool (1 Arctic, 1 Norwegian, 2 Faeroes Gap).
(2) 1 CP RTB to Gibraltar (1 Mouths of Amazon).
(3) +2 CPs to East Coast & Coral Sea.
(4) +1 CP to Arabian Sea, East Med, Timor Sea.
(5) Total 5 CPs RTB & 7 CPs sent out to sea.
(6) 1 Anglo-American CP idle in Canadian Coast, Denmark Straights, Red Sea, Persian Gulf (4 total)
(7) 1 Anglo-American CP idle in Bay of Bengal, Timor Sea, Bismarck Sea, Solomons, Hawaiian Islands, Mendocino (6 total).
(8) 10 idle CPs at sea (needed for supply).

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CW Production.
(a) 23/23 Factories Producing.
(b) 3/3 Food in Flames.
(c) 3/3 LL BPs -> Free France.
(d) 0/6 Oil used for production.
(e) 1 RP (non-oil) idle.

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USA Production.
(a) 43/43 Factories Producing.
(b) 6/6 LL BPs -> USSR.
(c) 2/2 LL BPs -> Free France.
(d) 15/23 Oil used for production.
(e) 1 RP (non-oil) idle (Philippines)
(f) PHI RP -> 1 (idle CP) Bismarck Sea -> 1 Solomons -> 0 Marshalls -> 1 Hawaiian Islands -> 1 Mendocino -> 0 West Coast.
(g) When US gets naval move & priority for PHI RP, 1 CP (Truk) -> Bismarck Sea & 1 CP (San Diego) -> West Coast and will get PHI RP to production to replace oil used.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 25. Sep/Oct 1943. Allied #1.

BOA Threat.
(1) 8 of 11 (Vichy Sub Gp at sea West Med[2] not shown) German U-boat flotillas & Sub Gps are risk to allied Atlantic convoys.
(2) 80% chance that Germany will have to take a combine or naval next (axis) impulse.

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BOA Risk Assessment.
(3) German U-boats / subs threaten 13 of 18 Atlantic Sea areas, which contain a total of 83 of the 85 Atlantic CPs.
(4) 60.7 of the 85 Atlantic CPs, or 71.4%, are considered at risk.
(5) Not to be overlooked is the risk to allied Mediterranean supply lines (and CPs) in the West Med, Italian Coast & East Med.

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BOA Risk (Sorted).
(6) RN in order descending order of risk sent, moved down or ensured a minimum of 1 SCS escort ([0]) and 1 SCS patrol ([4] or [3]) in threaten sea areas except the Canadian Coast and Demark Straights.
(7) This included the Med (West, Italian Coast & East) too.

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BOA ASW (& Anti Surface Raiders) Escorts & Patrols.
(8) The remaining available RN NOT tasked for other higher priority missions (e.g., bombardments, troop transport & escort, amphibious invasion & escort) were added to ASW escorts & patrols as shown below.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 25. Sep/Oct 1943. Allied #1.

MTO. Naval Moves.
(1) Of course, significant priority and RN ships were used in MTO/Balkan support.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 25. Sep/Oct 1943. Allied #1. MTO. Naval Combat.

West Med.

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East Med.
Round 1 (1/2).

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[rkr1958]

Turn 25. Sep/Oct 1943. Allied #1. MTO. Naval Combat.

East Med.
Round 1 (2/2).

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Round 2.
Undamaged & remaining German Sub Gp does NOT commit (dives).

[rkr1958]

Turn 25. Sep/Oct 1943. Allied #1. PTO. Naval Combat.

China Sea.

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Arabian Sea.

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Coral Sea. 1/2.
IJN elects to fight sub vs AL[0] with 7 SPs.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 25. Sep/Oct 1943. Allied #1. PTO. Naval Combat.

Coral Sea 2/2.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 25. Sep/Oct 1943. Allied #1. Asian Theater. China.

(1) Some, but not a lot of, movement due to weather.
(2) Lots of flipped & isolated Japanese land and air units.
(3) All other (organized) Japanese units are out of supply.
(4) Japan expected to take combine next (axis) impulse to put supply CPs out to sea and get China back in supply.
(5) CW & Free French sub Gps in China & South China Seas but not in Sea of Japan.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 25. Sep/Oct 1943. Allied #1. MTO & Balkans.

(1) Free French LM 1/2. XVIII Cav corps liberates the open city of Dubrovnik, Yugoslavia and reestablishes supply to all allied troops in Yugoslavia.
(2) Free French LM 2/2. V inf corps moves into Leghorn, Italy.

Land Combat.
(3) Automatic blitz vs OOS, flipped & isolated Wehrmacht XXXVII inf corps, which surrenders to the attacking US troops almost in whole.
(4) US does NOT advance to take control of the hex in order to physically occupy the 4-hexes south of the Po river from La Spezia to Venice.

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Air Rebase.
(5) RAF Tempest F/B rebases from London t0 La Spezia.
(6) 2 USAAF fighter wings rebased from Sardinia to Northern Italy and within reaction (1/2) range.

End of Impulse.

[rkr1958]

Turn 25. Sep/Oct 1943. Allied #1. The Eastern Front.

Volgograd Front.
(1) Yaraslaval is liberated by the Soviet 29th inf army.
(2) The 29th is in position to liberate Moscow if Germany doesn't respond (i.e., rail immediately next (axis) impulse).
(3) 2-4 inf div moves north of Volgograd and will flip control of 2 rail hexes north next (allied) impulse to open rail between Archangel & Volgograd.
(4) Rail will still be blocked by ZOC.
(5) Gorki is liberated by OOS and now flipped 1-4 inf div.
(6) The regeneration of the Volgograd Front well behind German lines, which has to be an embarrassment to the Wehrmacht, no only threatens the liberation of Moscow but the supply (rail) lines leading to Germany's Siberian Army Groups.

Siberian Fronts.
(7) Soviet armies push forward all along these fronts, especially in the north.
(8) The Red army is sensing an opportunity for switch from the defensive to the offensive and is looking (eventually) for the destruction of all German Siberian Army Groups.
(9) Too ambitious?
(10) Comrade Stalin doesn't think so.

End of Impulse.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 25. Sep/Oct 1943. Allied #1. The Eastern Front.

Southern Fronts.
The Soviets launch a major counterattack against the Turks push east towards Baku.

Ground Strike.

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Land Moves & Land Combat Declaration.

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Land Combat.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 25. Sep/Oct 1943. Axis #3. Actions.

BAO Action Requirement.
(1) U=8, S=0, A=1 => D10 < 9 then Germany must take this turn's required combine, or naval, action this impulse.
(2) D10 = 9 -> Germany may defer this impulse.
(3) But, Germany does NOT defer.
(4) Germany takes a combine anyway given the bad weather and some promise of better weather next (axis) impulse.
(5) Also, given that the USN hasn't moved yet this turn, odds in the Atlantic are better now than having to wait.
(6) And, if Donitz's U-boat can inflict (more) CP losses on the allies then that will limited allied land actions.

HR 26. Battle of the Atlantic. (G 2141)

The following applies to Germany and Italy when active and prior to 1944.

Each MP prior to 1944 when active must build and/or repair a minimum of 3 or max possible subs per turn. Also, German & Italian subs get top priority for oiling during use oil prior to 1944.

Until Germany has taken a combine or naval action in a given turn, they must take one on the current axis impulse or successfully defer taking it. The choice to attempt to defer is voluntary and may be deferred if D10 >= U+S+A, U = # U-boat flotillas that threaten any sea area containing 6 or more CPs, S = # sea areas threaten containing 6 or more CPs and no escorting SCS in the 0-box and A = actual # of the current axis impulse of the given turn (i.e., 1,2,3,4, …). Threaten means a chance to find given weather and fight a sub or surface action against the 0-box. Escorting SCS means any SCS that could be included in a sub or surface combat.

Axis Actions.
Japan & Germany both take combines.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 25. Sep/Oct 1943. Axis #3. BOA.

Faeroes Gap.

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North Atlantic.

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Central Atlantic.

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Cape St. Vincent.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 25. Sep/Oct 1943. Axis #3.

MTO.
East Med.

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PTO.
Arabian Sea.

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China Sea.

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South China Sea.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 25. Sep/Oct 1943. Axis #3.

Asian Theater. China.
(1) Japan did not use their 1 rail move.
(2) 2 of 3 Japan's land moves (combine) used in China.

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PTO. NEI Oil.
(3) 3rd land move used to garrison NEI Oil Tarakan, Borneo.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 25. Sep/Oct 1943. Axis #3. MTO.

Post Land Move.
(1) 3 of 6 German land moves (combine) used in Italy.

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Post Air Rebase.
(2) 2 of 6 German air (rebase) missions used in Italy.
(3) 1 air (rebase) mission used to cover Ploesti Oil (x3).

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[rkr1958]

Turn 25. Sep/Oct 1943. Axis #3. Eastern Front.

Siberian Army Groups.
(1) Germany's rail move used to garrison Moscow.
(2) No land or air moves used by Siberian Army Groups.

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Southern Army Groups.
Post Land Moves.
(3) 4-6 of 6 German land moves used to reestablish supply to Rommel's Army Group.

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Post Air Rebase Moves.
(4) 4-6 of 6 German air (rebase) moves used to position bomber & fighter support forward for Rommel's Army Group & surrounded Turkish Army outside of Baku.

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