GW Counterfactual Take 3.

[rkr1958]

Turn 26. Nov/Dec 1943. Axis #9. The Eastern Front.

Southern Army Groups.
(1) The OOS XLI panzer corps does move 1-hex to the southeast and isolates the entire Soviet southern fronts except for their support air forces.
(2) The unfortunate for the panzer corps for this move is that in turn the XLI panzer corps is also isolated; but was ordered by Rommel to do so for the good of the war effort.
(3) Rommel has promised, or maybe just mentioned, possible resupply (i.e., reorg) by air next turn.
(4) Wehrmacht and SS units flank (west) the allies in Azerbaijan by moving through eastern Turkey and towards allied positions in Syria and Iraq.
(5) The Southern Army Groups are the one bright spot currently in Germany's war effort.
(6) However, Rommel is becoming concerned over his northern flank and the gap between the Southern & Northern Army Groups.
(7) For now, that's something for OKH and the Northern Army Groups to concern themselves with.
(8) Rommel plans to push on into the allied rich oil fields of the Middle East and possibly on to the Suez Canal.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 26. Nov/Dec 1943. Allied #12. Weather & Possible Actions.

(1) Turn did continue (previous impulse axis #9) on D10 = 8 (vs 3 or less to end).
(2) I know I talked about a combine for the USSR, but the chances to getting another allied impulse after this is 8% max (if both Germany & Japan do not pass), 4% (if Japan passes) and 0% if both pass.
(3) The Soviets may just live with the isolated & flipped Southern Fronts in the Mtns and play to linked back up to them from Baku reinforcements and reorg next turn.
(4) The pursuit of the retreating Northern Army Groups is just too much to limit land moves to just 6, which also includes CCP forces in China.
(5) Need to take a closer look but odds are good that Allied Naval Command will finally get a CW naval action.
(6) Free France has an Amph Gp in North Africa than would be useful getting an American inf corps in Gibraltar to the beachheads in Vichy France.
(7) So likely a comb for Free France.
(8) CW naval would allow CW subs to search in the South China Sea giving the USN another shot at sinking the lone IJN TRS Gp there.
(9) Also, a US land would allow the US to clean up the surviving, flipped & isolated Tokyo MIL that was retreated by the US out of Batavia, Sumatra earlier this turn.
(10) There's a 60% chance that the turn will end on this impulse.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 26. Nov/Dec 1943. Allied #1. Impulse # 192. Actions.

(1) Joint Allied Naval Command is once again frustrated by action type.
(2) After looking at the situation the CW will take a land and Free France a naval action.
(3) The USSR will take a land as does the USA and China.
(4) 60% turn ends.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 26. Nov/Dec 1943. Allied #12

I've made the following changes to HR 4, which I will apply retroactively to last turn, which means Germany get 1 more saved oil. May rationale for the change is to prevent the axis from building up large stockpiles of oil in the early game when their production multiplier is smallest. From a counterfactual perspective I'm limiting axis oil stockpiles because in early game (early war) their expectation is for a short war and it isn't until the war for Germany is expanded to included the Soviet Union and for Japan the USA that the realization of a long war happens.

HR 4. Axis Save Oil Limits. (G 12)
The number of saved oil at the end of final production cannot exceed 4 for Germany if not at war with the USSR, 2 for Italy (anytime), 1 for Vichy if not hostile with any major power and 6 for Japan if not at war with the USA. During “Use Oil” phase the axis may go in any order they wish.

[rkr1958]

Turn 26. Nov/Dec 1943. Allied #12. PTO.

Naval Combat.
South China Sea.

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China Sea.

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Sumatra & Java, NEI. End of Impulse.
(1) Couldn't get automatic odds (i.e., 21A) vs isolated & flipped Tokyo MIL.
(2) No hurry, can take care of the MIL odds are automatic.
(3) No reason to risk loss.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 26. Nov/Dec 1943. Allied #12. Asian Theater.

China. End of Impulse.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 26. Nov/Dec 1943. Allied #12. Eastern Front & Middle East.

Southern Fronts & Middle East. End of Impulse.

(1) Mountbatten HQ-I & INF MIL railed from Iraq to the Soviet border in Persia.
(2) They will take care of isolation (next turn); which doesn't do any good for all Soviet ground units this turn.
(3) But many are elite, all are in the mountains and back weather (Jan/Feb) should continue so the prospects of saving these fronts look good.
(4) There's a 2% chance of partisan in Iraq; but that's the least of the Western Allies concern about Iraq and Syria.
(5) With the exception of three expeditionary forces sent, or about to be sent, to southern USSR, this theater just hasn't the priority of other Western Allied theaters.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 26. Nov/Dec 1943. Allied #12. Eastern Front.

Northern Fronts. End of Impulse.
(1) Rail has been established and was used to ship the Soviet 43rd infantry army from Archangel to Vologda.
(2) Three Soviet Fronts are dashing west as fast as they can go in hot pursuit of the retreating Germany Army Groups.
(3) Saratov and Penza were liberated.
(4) Supply was cut to Manstein's Army Group (or what's left of it) and elite mech corps (flipped) was isolated.
(5) Contact to the main fronts was established with Gorki.
(6) Contact from the main fronts to Yaroslava and Vologda is close.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 26. Nov/Dec 1943. Allied #12. Eastern Front.

The VOID.
(1) There is a tremendous void between Germany's northern and southern Army Groups.
(2) Though Rommel is the verge of a breakthrough into the Middle East, the Red Army is looking to exploit this void, liberate (lot more) Soviet cities and even push into the Balkans.
(3) Stalin is more than willing to sacrifice his southern Fronts, the Middle East to accomplish this.
(4) Germany must respond to cover this void which is one more area to which their having to respond.
(5) The bottom line for the Soviets and for their Western Allies is to stay on the offensive and dictate to the Germans versus responding to them.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 26. Nov/Dec 1943. Allied #12. BOA & MTO Naval.

Cape St. Vincent.

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West Med.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 26. Nov/Dec 1943. Allied #12. Western Front & MTO.

Ground Strike.

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Land Combat.
E1-Toulouse, Vichy France.
(1) [Snow, Clear, Unopposed] Beau F/B(3/2=2) vs OOS & flipped SS Cav corps (1 DF) -> +4 + 19A (100% PWIN, 98% no loss) = +23A(100%, 100%).
(2) Overkill? Why risk the 2% loss this late in the turn when you don't have to.
(3) Automatic assault vs OOS & flipped SS Maria T. Cav corps -> eliminated which isolated the OOS & flipped Vichy tank corps, changing the land combat odds from +1.286 to +21 (automatic). Attack order matters!

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Vichy 63,28.
(4) Vichy Chevalier corps surrenders in total. In order not to give a reason for reprisals, Vichy tank crews destroy their tanks before surrendering.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 26. Nov/Dec 1943. Allied #12.

Western Front, MTO & Austria. End of Impulse.
(1) Unless there's a strategic/tactical advantage to be had the Western Allies are staying out of Austria in order to avoid given Germany +0.25 production multiplier.

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Balkans. End of Impulse.
(2) The Western Allies across these three fronts are spread so far that it now takes 2 screen CAPs to captures all three fronts.
(3) Will Germany have to fill the VOID on the Eastern Front with some of their troops & planes from the Balkans?
(4) That's why it's important for the Western Allies to still keep pressure on the Germans in the Balkans so as to make that decision hard for them.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 26. Nov/Dec 1943. Axis #15. Impulse #193. Weather & Actions.

(1) Turn continued from previous impulse (Allied #12) on D10 = 10 (vs 6 or less to end).
(2) The severe weather lessens some except in the north temperate where snow turned into early winter storms.
(3) Germany & Japan both will take a land. Japan needs the rail.
(4) 80% turn ends.
(5) Cocktail & Magnum, P.I. time. The original Magnum, P.I. with Tom Selleck. I also have the entire DVD collection for Murder She Wrote and the DVD set of Night Stalker (1974-1975).
(6) Watching the Night Stalker brings back fond memories of watching on Friday nights (two seasons) with my dad.
(7) Those two years would have been my high school junior and senior years (assuming the originals aired in the fall, can't remember exactly).
(8) I was a 1976 bi-centennial HS graduate. Remember those bi-centennial minutes on TV in 1975 & 1976?
(9) Good grief, where has all the years gone?

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[rkr1958]

Turn 26. Nov/Dec 1943. Axis #15. PTO. Japanese Home Islands.

End of Impulse.
(1) No land moves, 2 rails.
(2) Rail 1/2. Cav div. Fukuoka -> Nemoral, Japan. Railed to make room for 150 mm AA div.
(3) Rail 2/2. 150 mm AA div. Tokyo -> Fukuoka to provide AA defense of Yamamoto, IJN fleet in Tokyo. Doesn't require oil to reorg.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 26. Nov/Dec 1943. Axis #15. Italy & Balkans.

End of Impulse.
(1) Was hard in this weather (storm) but trying to more efficiently cover current FLOT without giving up ground but freeing up quality units for deployment to more critical fronts (i.e., Eastern or Western).

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[rkr1958]

Turn 26. Nov/Dec 1943. Axis #15. Western Front.

End of Impulse.
(1) ROM Andronescu HQ-I railed from Brest SE1-Bordeaux to supply German forces in that sector (Bordeaux to Toulouse).
(2) Brest is now unsupplied which means Donitz is going have to use Bordeaux as his U-boat base until such time Brest, if every, can get an resupplied (i.e., HQ-I).
(3) The BB's Bismarck and Tirpitz, which is all that's left of the KM surface (raider) fleet, are no unsupplied but they're just not a priority.
(4) Dontiz will likely leave all his u-boats and subs at sea as his prospect of getting a combine has lowered significantly now that HR 26 is no longer in effect after 1943.
(5) Rundstedt in Turin, Italy maintaining a strong defense in the Italian & French Alps in order to keep the allies in Italy and Vichy France from linking up.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 26. Nov/Dec 1943. Axis #15. Eastern Front.

Arctic (Finnish Army). End of Impulse.
(1) Finnish corps moves to Murmansk and in position to rail, in a couple of turns, when Finnish I inf can flip control of rail to connect Murmansk with Novgorod and beyond.

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Army Group North & Center. End of Impulse.
(2) Northern Army Groups (formerly Siberian Army Groups) have been renamed back to Army Group North (von Manstein) and Army Group Center (Guderian).
(3) von Manstein treats Army Group North back towards Moscow and will be responsible for the Leningrad to Moscow to Gorki to Rayazan sector.
(4) Army Group Center got 2 of 3 German rails this impulse:
(a) SS Weisser (vol) MIL. Zagreb, YUG -> Stalingrad, USSR.
(b) SS Ost (vol) MIL. Cherbourg, France -> Voronezh, USSR.
(5) Guderian (Army Group Center) is responsible for the defense from Army Groups North's southern flank to the Southern Army Groups (Rommel) northern flank.
(6) That's a BIG mission, Guderian moves his forces to try to cover the gaps stretching 1000's of miles.
(7) He's also screaming for more reinforcements and is promised by OKH to be one of the highest priority commands for reinforcements.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 26. Nov/Dec 1943. Axis #12. Eastern Front.

Southern Army Groups.
Combat Logs.

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Land Combat.

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15-AX-Eastern-Azerbaijan-67-72.png (257.81 KiB) Viewed 1101 times

End of Impulse.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 26. Nov/Dec 1943. Axis #15.

(1) Turn ends on D10 = 6 (8 or less to end).
(2) 5 axis, 4 allied, 9 impulses total.
(3) Initiative shifts to AL+1, AL win tie.
(4) 193 impulses over 26 total turns, average of 7.4 per turn.
(5) 96 were axis, average of 3.7 per turn.
(6) 97 were allied, also average of 3.7 per turn.
(7) End of turn check on 5 of the 9 impulses, which the lowest D10 = 6 (3 times!) and average EOT D10 = 7.2.
(8) That and the weather were the reasons turn ran 3 impulses longer than the expected 6 impulses for Nov/Dec.

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Impulses Per Turn Data & Plots.
Discrete Probabilities & Stats.

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PDF Plot.

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Upper CDF Plot.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 26. Nov/Dec 1943. End of Turn. Partisans.

Numbers & Probabilities.

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Combat Logs.

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China.

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USSR.

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