Questions about Tactics and Strategy (Cold War)

[Mgellis]

I'm playing around with some ideas for new scenarios, and I'm looking for advice about how to handle certain possibilities.

First, let's assume we've got a "cold war goes hot" situation. Probably 1970s or 1980s. Most of NATO's forces are focused on stopping Soviet advances in Europe, making sure Soviet submarines aren't a threat to shipping in the Atlantic, etc.

But who handles the secondary threats of the Soviet Union's allies? For example, Libya is hardly a major threat to NATO, but its missile boats, etc. could do some serious damage to merchant shipping (or troop ships) in the Mediterranean. Who would be tasked with removing these threats?

Would this be the responsibility of the standing naval forces (e.g., STANAVFORMED) or would individual countries like Italy or Spain be given responsibility for certain parts of the Mediterranean?

Who tackles Iraq's navy? Saudi Arabia? Iran (if it is the 1970s)? Whatever NATO forces were on station in and around the Persian Gulf (which might be depleted in expectation of a major war in Europe)?

I'm guessing any East, West, or South African nations that sided with the Soviets would face whatever American, British, and/or French forces were nearby, possibly including South African forces depending on when the conflict took place. Does this sound reasonable?

Any other thoughts or suggestions for scenarios like this?

[tylerblakebrandon]

I'm sure Libya would be dealt with by the dual hatted Commander U.S. 6th Fleet/Commander Allied Forces Southern Europe (AFSOUTH)

[HalfLifeExpert]

Depending on how the opening days of the war go, the Libyans would probably be handled by the Sixth Fleet carriers.

IF the Sixth Fleet has it's hands full or takes serious damage, I suspect the Libyans would be isolated by the French and Italian navies. They wouldn't be able to do the same level of damage as the US, but they could destroy Libya's small fleet and wear down it's air force to the point where it presents minimal threat to the Central Mediterranean SLOCs.

As far as ground operations, unless Egypt is dragged into the conflict (and thus open a new Western Desert campaign), I doubt there will be amphibious operations until later in the war.

Portugal and Spain (after 1982), their fleets would probably have the dual role of joining the third Battle of the Atlantic against Soviet subs, and keeping tabs on Algeria.

Iraq may not nessicarily need suppressing. With war having broken out between the USSR and NATO, that makes Persian Gulf oil more valuable, and honestly, Saddam would be stupidly bonkers to threaten that potential goldmine. I suspect Iraqi neutrality.

However, if the Iran-Iraq war is still ongoing, the Iranians may become arms-length co-belligerents with the Soviets. The Iranians would benefit from being able to strike at 'the great satan' and the Soviets would benefit by the US needing to send naval assets to keep Hormuz open. I don't think the Saudis had the capability before the 1990s to really be able to keep the oil flowing on their own. This would also make Saddam a de-facto ally with NATO.

As for other Allies, it really depends on the course of the war and to what extent Soviet 'allies' get involved.

Angola by itself would be a non-issue as far as NATO is concerned, but any Soviet vessels in the South Atlantic at the outset would welcome Luanda as a supply port. Perhaps NATO leadership could work out a bargain with South Africa to keep the pressure on the Angolans in exchange for technical support, keeping Namibia and agreeing to a phased drawdown of Apartheid.

Cuba would be able to tie down US resources for a period of time, but would be hammered so hard as to be effectively neutralized in rather short order. Any forces they still have in Angola would be isolated.

Vietnam is a question mark. They were aligned with the Soviets in the Sino-Soviet Split, but given the multi-decades war they went through, and the ongoing Cambodian insurgency, they may want to stay out of the war. They could request the Soviets leave Cam Ranh Bay, or at the very least not conduct combat operations from there. That would put the Soviet Pacific Fleet in a quandary, because the routes back to Vladivostok and Petropavlovsk would be extremely hard to fight their way back to.

Perhaps the commander of the naval squadron there at the outbreak of hostilities could attempt his own version of Max Von Spee's 1914 trans-pacific voyage? It would tie down NATO aligned forces in the hunt. Or perhaps they could try for a mad dash to a 'safe haven' in India or a friendly nation in SE Africa? Their munitions couldn't really be replenished easily, so there's little physical damage they could do.

I suspect India would be neutral unless Pakistan struck first.

North Korea might reignite the Korean War at Moscow's request, and that would assure considerable US forces being kept in the Far East.

I think the bottom line is that more horizontal escalation early in the war would be likely to force the US to spread it's ships further. There's only so much that the allied fleets of the time could realistically have done outside of Europe and the Med.

[Kushan04]

Libya probably gets neutralized by Sixth Fleet carriers perhaps with support from Spain, France, and Italy. Depends on how the opening days go. Based on the different engagements throughout the 80s Sixth Fleet could probably punch them out or at least defang them in a few days. Their only real threat would have been their aircraft. Libya may have pulled an El Dorado Canyon and pull the majority of their fighters to the south but Sixth Fleet could still get to them.

[Stanley_The_Rolmate]

I think it would be challenging for the Soviets to convince all of their non WP allies to join a large scale conflict against NATO, as a lot of them would have a lot to lose and not a lot to gain. They could do it, but I think if things went south, most of them would jump ship.

I guess Libya would be dealt with using any NATO forces in the Mediterranean.

Before the revolution, Iraq would have been Iran's responsibility, though the Shah would probably be just as likely to attack them first instead of Iraq joining on the side of the Soviets.
And there's only like one and a half years between the revolution and the start of the Iran-Iraq war, and the Iraqi navy never really ventured that far from their coast during this war. So I think it would be unlikely that the Iraqi navy could threaten the Saudi oil terminals while being both at war with NATO and Iran.

[CV60]

It depends on a lot of factors. Countries like Libya very well may have stayed out of the war. Consider that Italy didn't join in military operations against France until 10 June, after it became apparent that France had lost. A country like Libya would be a long way from Soviet help, and within relatively easy strike range of USN assets. It could very easily have decided to stay out of the conflict until a winner became evident.

[Gunner98]

I'm sure Libya would be dealt with by the dual hatted Commander U.S. 6th Fleet/Commander Allied Forces Southern Europe (AFSOUTH)

Agree, however there are quite a few scenarios, especially in the late 80's where the carriers would be called elsewhere. Estimates were for 6-8 carriers to deploy to the North Atlantic for instance. Also by then the IO/Persian Gulf region was critical and may have a carrier assigned to it.

The Mediterranean navies, also part of AFSOUTH would have a major role in containing any threat from anywhere in North Africa or Syria. Also ground base air would be useful once it could be re-directed from the Balkans. The Italians have some fantastic units, as do the French. The Brits also had a decent presence in the Med. The two Foch class CVs would probably stay in the Med and shouldn't be thrust into the North Atlantic, except as an easy kill aimed at not offending an American audience in every WW3 alternative history ... so far .

B

[HalfLifeExpert]

Given all the research that's gone into the 'Fury War' of 1994, I'd go with what Bart offers.

The two Foch class CVs would probably stay in the Med and shouldn't be thrust into the North Atlantic, except as an easy kill aimed at not offending an American audience in every WW3 alternative history ... so far

Nice little nod to the "Dance of The Vampires". Realistically, do you think that Foch may have been part of that carrier force early in the RSR war because it was coincidentally already in the Atlantic at the outbreak of hostilities?

Given her limited air wing of only F-8 Crusaders for A/A, doesn't seem like Foch or Clemenceau could realistically contribute much to protecting the trans-Atlantic convoys.

[Gunner98]

Given her limited air wing of only F-8 Crusaders for A/A, doesn't seem like Foch or Clemenceau could realistically contribute much to protecting the trans-Atlantic convoys.

And those Alizé certainly didn't add much to ASW protection either.

I think both them spent most of the 80's & 90's in the Med so I suspect it was well understood that they were out of place in the Atlantic and the Med had a much lower threat profile. I put them into the Atlantic in some of the mid and late Northern Fury Scenarios, mostly to protect the logistics ships and rear area from Soviet leakers, but they tend to be more of a liability to the players.

I'm pretty sure they tend to be used in fiction to display the risks to carriers while at the same time not damaging NATO capabilities for the big finale. Just a hunch.

B

[FrangibleCover]

I think we're underestimating the value of the Italians, they have a large navy and air force almost immediately adjacent to Libya and, frankly, not a huge amount to do in any scenario where Yugoslavia remains neutral (which is any realistic one). Kormorans, Otomats and Whitehead torps may be able to do for the bulk of the Libyan fleet before Sixth Fleet's carrier has gotten to the right part of the Med. I think there's a decent scenario in this, more interesting than watching Tomcats jump up and down on MiG-23s again. Perhaps the carrier is in the scenario, off Cyprus and having to run shuttle tanking missions to get a fraction of its air group into action and support the Starfighter deluge?

The Atlantic Convoy War is something the Clems are going to be very well matched to: They're unable to deal with submarines and there aren't any submarines in the Atlantic because they're all in the bastions. If they can relieve a proper carrier from this pointless duty they are certainly pulling their weight