Square root attrition model

The sequel of the legendary wargame with a complete graphics and interface overhaul, major new gameplay and design features such as full naval combat modelling, improved supply handling, numerous increases to scenario parameters to better support large scenarios, and integrated PBEM++.
Post Reply
yiyuezhuo
Posts: 5
Joined: Thu Feb 18, 2010 1:29 am

Square root attrition model

Post by yiyuezhuo »

It is intriguing to compare the combat resolution systems in TOAW and PZC, particularly noting that both games share some fundamental concepts, such as victory conditions driven by morale checks. However, a notable difference lies in how losses are calculated for the target units:

In PZC, the target's losses are directly proportional to the attacker's assault value:

target loss ratio = k * attacker's assault value / target defense value

Contrastingly, in TOAW, the attrition value, based on information scattered across the internet, is proportional to the square root of the attacker's attrition value (which is the sum of their AP or AT values):

target loss ratio = k * sqrt(attacker's AP or AT value) / sqrt(target defense value)

When the attacker is sufficiently powerful, the square root function in TOAW's attrition model resembles the maximum attacker mechanism in DC, which reduces the attacker's strength after multiple attacks within a single combat round. This can be represented as a piecewise function with both linear and logarithmic components:

loss ratio = k * attacker's fire value (linear if the threshold is not reached)
loss ratio = k * thresholded attacker's fire value + k2 * log(extra attacker's fire value)

Regarding defense values, consider the effect of bombardment. Doubling the strength results in approximately a 2 * 1/sqrt(2) = sqrt(2) ~=1.41 losses increase, assuming no stacking limit penalties apply (in PZC, a linear relationship would prevent such a increase (2 * 1/2 = 1)). It looks that TOAW just assumes the target units are uniformly distributed within the combat zone and that artillery fire strikes randomly across the area. :roll:
User avatar
Lobster
Posts: 5520
Joined: Thu Aug 08, 2013 2:12 pm
Location: Third rock from the Sun.

Re: Square root attrition model

Post by Lobster »

yiyuezhuo wrote: Fri Aug 23, 2024 6:13 am It looks that TOAW just assumes the target units are uniformly distributed within the combat zone and that artillery fire strikes randomly across the area. :roll:
Unguided artillery does strike randomly. Not like it's a direct fire weapon.

"For example, a 25 pounder needs to land 8 – 32 shells per hour for neutralisation (for about 10% casualties; Global Security Organisation, n.d.), but 600 shells in a 100 x 100 yard sector are required to militarily ‘destroy’ the target (meaning 30% casualties)."

https://balagan.info/artillery-and-mort ... ics-of-ww2
ne nothi tere te deorsum (don't let the bastards grind you down)

If duct tape doesn't fix it then you are not using enough duct tape.

Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity and I’m not sure about the universe-Einstein.
User avatar
rhinobones
Posts: 2185
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2002 10:00 am

Re: Square root attrition model

Post by rhinobones »

yiyuezhuo wrote: Fri Aug 23, 2024 6:13 am Contrastingly, in TOAW, the attrition value, based on information scattered across the internet, is proportional to the square root of the attacker's attrition value (which is the sum of their AP or AT values):
target loss ratio = k * sqrt(attacker's AP or AT value) / sqrt(target defense value)

You seem to know a bit about internal TOAW calculations, do you have access to the TOAW code? If not, where on the internet are you getting your information?
Colin Wright:
Pre Combat Air Strikes # 64 . . . I need have no concern about keeping it civil

Post by broccolini » Sun Nov 06, 2022
. . . no-one needs apologize for douchebags acting like douchebags
yiyuezhuo
Posts: 5
Joined: Thu Feb 18, 2010 1:29 am

Re: Square root attrition model

Post by yiyuezhuo »

rhinobones wrote: Fri Aug 23, 2024 11:35 pm
yiyuezhuo wrote: Fri Aug 23, 2024 6:13 am Contrastingly, in TOAW, the attrition value, based on information scattered across the internet, is proportional to the square root of the attacker's attrition value (which is the sum of their AP or AT values):
target loss ratio = k * sqrt(attacker's AP or AT value) / sqrt(target defense value)

You seem to know a bit about internal TOAW calculations, do you have access to the TOAW code? If not, where on the internet are you getting your information?
Sources:
https://www.matrixgames.com/forums/view ... p?t=319298
https://steamcommunity.com/sharedfiles/ ... 1544712899
User avatar
Curtis Lemay
Posts: 15047
Joined: Fri Sep 17, 2004 3:12 pm
Location: Houston, TX

Re: Square root attrition model

Post by Curtis Lemay »

Diminishing returns.
My TOAW web site:

Bob Cross's TOAW Site
User avatar
cathar1244
Posts: 1284
Joined: Sat Sep 05, 2009 2:16 am

Re: Square root attrition model

Post by cathar1244 »

@yiyuezhuo

Something to consider is that TOAW combat resolution has to handle a wide spread of possible time and space combinations in a scenario.

That said, the engine gives a result. It is up to scenario designers to set the attrition divider such that losses look somewhat realistic for the space and time scales involved.

Interesting thread topic.

Cheers
yiyuezhuo
Posts: 5
Joined: Thu Feb 18, 2010 1:29 am

Re: Square root attrition model

Post by yiyuezhuo »

Curtis Lemay wrote: Sat Aug 24, 2024 12:23 am Diminishing returns.
The new naval combat system seems to lack a similar "diminishing marginal returns" mechanism; I wonder where the boundary lies.
yiyuezhuo
Posts: 5
Joined: Thu Feb 18, 2010 1:29 am

Re: Square root attrition model

Post by yiyuezhuo »

cathar1244 wrote: Sat Aug 24, 2024 5:46 pm @yiyuezhuo

Something to consider is that TOAW combat resolution has to handle a wide spread of possible time and space combinations in a scenario.

That said, the engine gives a result. It is up to scenario designers to set the attrition divider such that losses look somewhat realistic for the space and time scales involved.

Interesting thread topic.

Cheers
The attrition divider is included in the constant k, and the square root method (similar to a variant of Lanchester's linear law: dx/dt = -k * sqrt(xy)) makes it fundamentally different from PZC's linear method (following Lanchester's square law: dx/dt = -k * y). What I mean is, for the same battle, one of them must be better than the other.
User avatar
Curtis Lemay
Posts: 15047
Joined: Fri Sep 17, 2004 3:12 pm
Location: Houston, TX

Re: Square root attrition model

Post by Curtis Lemay »

yiyuezhuo wrote: Fri Aug 30, 2024 1:55 am
Curtis Lemay wrote: Sat Aug 24, 2024 12:23 am Diminishing returns.
The new naval combat system seems to lack a similar "diminishing marginal returns" mechanism; I wonder where the boundary lies.
Ships can't dig in or hide.
My TOAW web site:

Bob Cross's TOAW Site
User avatar
cathar1244
Posts: 1284
Joined: Sat Sep 05, 2009 2:16 am

Re: Square root attrition model

Post by cathar1244 »

yiyuezhuo wrote: Fri Aug 30, 2024 2:02 am
cathar1244 wrote: Sat Aug 24, 2024 5:46 pm @yiyuezhuo

Something to consider is that TOAW combat resolution has to handle a wide spread of possible time and space combinations in a scenario.

That said, the engine gives a result. It is up to scenario designers to set the attrition divider such that losses look somewhat realistic for the space and time scales involved.

Interesting thread topic.

Cheers
The attrition divider is included in the constant k, and the square root method (similar to a variant of Lanchester's linear law: dx/dt = -k * sqrt(xy)) makes it fundamentally different from PZC's linear method (following Lanchester's square law: dx/dt = -k * y). What I mean is, for the same battle, one of them must be better than the other.
For any particular battle, one of the systems probably offers a more realistic outcome.

One would have to test a series of battles over both systems with identical parameters. It might then be possible to state which system produces better results more often.

The attrition divider and replacement rates are key variables to control the ability of units to remain effective in TOAW. The designer of a scenario has to test various settings of these parameters to see if outcomes resembling history take place.

There is another part of these systems and that are the databases that define the equipment of the units. An interesting comparison between the two games would be to see how they rate the same pieces of equipment.

Cheers
Post Reply

Return to “The Operational Art of War IV”