Japan BMD Scenario

[SunlitZelkova]

Hello,

Here is a very small, short scenario I have crafted. The goal was to provide a better look at how Japanese BMD defenses might fair against a North Korean nuclear attack, as my scenario from last year, "The 2023 North Korean Nuclear Attacks, Part 1" crucially left out the American AN/TPY-2 radar based in Akita Prefecture, which would (and does in the scenario) provide targeting data to the SM-3 equipped Aegis destroyer at sea.

This scenario is more so crafted as an educational tool rather than a "game." Instead of a story-like description in the beginning and a briefing that puts you in a first person point-of-view of a commander, background into the reasons why Japan is a nuclear target and a simple description of the situation is provided. The scenario was made about two weeks before the recent Liberal Democratic Party leadership election, and is thus something of an alternate history as Koizumi Shinjiro was imagined as having become Prime Minister.

I was inspired to make this scenario because I have begun attending college in Hiroshima City, and am very concerned at how the Japanese government seems to be doing little to either resolve tensions with North Korea or prepare the country for nuclear war. During the debate about "counterstrike capabilities" a few years ago, politicians once actually tried to justify this for the purpose of attacking North Korean missiles as they fueled on the launch pad. Note that this listless thinking towards the problem exists to a certain extent in South Korea and the United States too, although the effects of the war on them might need to be dealt with in another scenario.

Notes-
1. Numerous radars and Patriot batteries were left out because they simply aren't in position to intercept any of the missiles. It is possible the missile targeted on Sasebo Naval Base might have been intercepted by an SM-3 had a radar been there to detect it, but beyond that there are no Patriot batteries normally stationed near the other targets, at least not close enough to fall within the Patriot's DLZ.
2. Despite having added SBIRS early warning satellites to the game, these are out of position to detect the North Korean missile launches, despite the satellite pass predictor indicating their IR cameras are within range of the Korean peninsula in their present position. However, this is of no consequence to the effectiveness of the BMD, because the IR camera can't provide targeting data anyways.
3. The BMD forces have actually been artificially buffed to a certain extent because the 14th Missile Defense Battery, US Army, stationed in Kyoto Prefecture has its own AN/TPY-2 radar. It is not clear if it actually operates one. This doesn't affect the outcome much, however, as you will see...
4. Despite the scenario attempting to show off the ineffectiveness of Japanese BMD, it is more so about protecting cities rather than US military bases. Indeed, much of the US military infrastructure in the country survives. This leaves lots of firepower in place to deal with the looming threat of North Korean ICBMs. I may touch on this in a future scenario.
5. Results in Tokyo may vary from those described in the closing message.

The title of the scenario is Island of Fire, and it takes place in 2025. Please note that the goal of the scenario isn't necessarily to say that Japan is doomed, just that the way things are now, the prospects for Japan's survival in a war aren't good. But changes can be made.

Comments and feedback are welcome, although any proposed solutions to the BMD problem shown in the scenario should obviously be military related rather than political (such as proposing diplomatic resolution of tensions) due to forum rules forbidding politics. Finally, note that this is not a definitive claim as to what would happen in a crisis on the Korean peninsula, but rather one possibility.

[Parel803]

thank you for sharing.
regards GJ