Dutch AVP Arend: Scenario 1 Exploits

[WEXF]

The intel briefing on enemy patrol aircraft started with a close look at the H6K4 Mavis. It wasn't necessary to go into all of the specifics as the numbers told the story. This plane could fly far, stay in the air a long time, carry lethal armaments and had a reasonable ability to defend itself. On the downside, it was slow, needed lots of maintenance and was costly to produce because of the four engines needed to allow it to fly.

mavisa.jpg (95.2 KiB) Viewed 1016 times

The briefing got interesting when the officer put up a chart explaining the numbers of Mavis patrol planes likely to be in the enemy arsenal. It was explained that the data presented was accurate with respect to the start of the war and certain plans for expansion but the point was stressed that in the 9 months of the war much could have changed. It was completely unknown if Japan had altered its plan for production of the Mavis or other patrol planes.

PPstarta.jpg (106.42 KiB) Viewed 1012 times

Initially, there were just 6 units of various sizes equipped with the Mavis. Together they had 63 aircraft. A single production plant had been programmed to produce 6 planes per month. In addition, Japan had another 6 aircraft in the "pool". Some of the units had initial restrictions on where they could be operated, some squadrons could be split into sections but in total there just were not many of these planes to be spread out over all of the war zones the IJN was operation in. Another chart showed part of the enemy plan for the future. It showed the arrival schedule for a number of new squadrons of patrol aircraft. It included plans for new units flying the H6K4 Mavis as well as others that would be flying more advanced airframes. These new squadrons usually showed up with just 2 aircraft and needed to be "filled out" from the "Pool". It was also pointed out that original Mavis squadrons could, and likely would be, upgraded to the more advanced models over time.

PPaddeda.jpg (76.25 KiB) Viewed 1008 times

Some of the more advanced models are already in limited production and several have been reported as "lost due to operations".
The intel officer closed the meeting by stressing that these patrol planes should be a top priority target. The enemy needs them everywhere and has likely spread them out thinly. Everyone destroyed places a stress on those that remain in service forcing them to fly more often and raising the possibility that operational losses will increase. It was pointed out that BAI (Best Available Intel) is that 38 Mavis have already been lost to "Operations". Operation Resource is being considered as one of the most important factors in placing pressure on the enemy's patrol plane fleet. Enemy submarines are hesitant to enter the shallow water along the coast of northern Australia.

[WEXF]

The final briefing of the day was an update on the progress of "OR" (Operation Resource). The figures presented were in some ways quite predicable but there was a significant surprise. Each of the bases was looked at separately.

res13Sepa.jpg (142.92 KiB) Viewed 992 times

Exmouth was exactly as expected. Resource points at the base had been reduced by 2000, exactly the amount that had been loaded on the 5 ships of TF 378 in the first day of loading.

tf378.13Sa.jpg (108.07 KiB) Viewed 991 times

Port Hedland was also exactly as expected. The total of RP at the base had been reduced by 3200, 800 on each of the 4 ships of TF432 in the first day of loading.

tf432.13Sa.jpg (112.91 KiB) Viewed 990 times

Data for CD was not as expected. After the production of 2000 RP for the day, the base would have had 38624 RP. The base finished the day with only 34962 RP. 3662 RP had left CD. Where did they go?
Activity at Geraldton was minimal. No TF were loading or unloading. The base started with 44RP and ended with 4. Where did the 40RP go?
At Perth, there would have been 1200RP added by local production and 3200RP used to support the LI and HI. That activity should have reduced the total RP at Perth from 17015>15015. The day ended with Perth having 17434 RP. 2419RP had moved into Perth. Where did they come from?
At Kalgoorlie the base should have had 6826 RP after the daily production of 3400. The day ended with only 3487 RP at the base. 3339 RP had left the base. Where did they go?
The most interesting data was for Carnarvon. At the start of the day there were 3250 RP at the base. TF 231 was in the third day of loading which reduced the RP at the base by 800 >2450.

tf231.13Sa.jpg (94.16 KiB) Viewed 983 times

Instead the total number of RP at Carnarvon had increased to 6122. That was an increase of 3672. Where did they come from?
Do we have an exact understanding of what happened this day? No. But we do have some "more likely than not" answers. It seems pretty clear that the RP that left CD (-3662) ended up at Carnarvon (+3672). Perhaps the other 10 came from Geraldton with Perth getting restocked mainly from Kalgoorlie.
Perhaps the activity of TF 231 loading at Carnarvon caused the "program" to send more RP to the base? Will increasing the activity at Carnarvon move more RP out of CD? From PH? Is the current OR plan still the best one? Time will tell.

[BBfanboy]

Loading resources at a base creates a demand for resources there, so you get a reverse flow when the 'resources required' is higher than the resources on hand. You can end up shipping the resources in a circle if there is no stronger demand from a distant base. Perth is the best place to send the resources off to Melbourne/Sydney/Brisbane because it has a major rail line. Until the resources get to Perth they can flow around to the northern bases that have 'shortages' from ship loading.

[WEXF]

Loading resources at a base creates a demand for resources there, so you get a reverse flow when the 'resources required' is higher than the resources on hand. You can end up shipping the resources in a circle if there is no stronger demand from a distant base. Perth is the best place to send the resources off to Melbourne/Sydney/Brisbane because it has a major rail line. Until the resources get to Perth they can flow around to the northern bases that have 'shortages' from ship loading.

Thanks for the comment. It will be interesting to watch the flow of RP as the activity at Carnarvon increases. The hope is that since there is such a large amount of RP in the north and no demand for them at all, the RP will flow away from CD and PH.

[WEXF]

14Sep found the AF at Carnarvon 59%>L4. The briefing on the status of OR showed that recent activity was entirely predictable.

CD14Sep.jpg (148.77 KiB) Viewed 942 times

CD produced and placed in base storage the daily 2000RP.
The same was true at Kalgoorlie where the 3400 RP produced remained at the base.
At Perth local supply of 2000 RP was used to make up the daily deficit needed to support the HI and LI.
Nothing happened at Geraldton.
At Carnarvon 800 additional RP were loaded on TF 231. It would take 2 more days to fully load XAK Shooting Star.

tf231.14sepa.jpg (94.3 KiB) Viewed 941 times

At Exmouth the 5 ships of TF 378 loaded an additional 2000 RP.

tf378.14sepa.jpg (109.29 KiB) Viewed 939 times

At PH TF 432 had completed loading and had left port headed for the west coast with a full load of 4000 RP. No enemy activity had been encountered by any of the ships taking part in OR.

tf432.14sepa.jpg (110.84 KiB) Viewed 938 times

No specifics were provided but the briefing closed with a simple statement that additional ships have been allocated to OR.

[WEXF]

15Sep found the AF at Carnarvon 62%>L4. The briefing on OR was clear and actually made sense.

CD915a.jpg (161.63 KiB) Viewed 882 times

The big change was the movement of 35483 RP from CD>PH. CD started with 36962 and added 2000 so if no movement would have happened there would be 38962 RP at CD. There are only 3479. At PH there are now 324643 RP at the base up from 293160. 4000RP were loaded on TF9 accounting for the exact amount of RP that left CD, 35483. TF9 will be fully loaded and leave PH today.

tf915sepa.jpg (107.27 KiB) Viewed 881 times

At Exmouth the reduction of 1000 RP represents the final loading of TF 378. At Carnarvon the change of 800 RP is due to the continued loading of TF231. No change was reported at Geraldton. Perth drew on the base supply of RP for most of its needs and Kalgoorlie shipped a large amount down the RR to other parts of Australia while likely sending a small amount to Perth.

[WEXF]

16Sep found the AF at Carnarvon 65%>L4. But the big news was that the bulk of the long awaited additional engineers had just arrived at the base. Expectations were high that the work on the AF would be completed quickly and that additional construction projects would by started asap. At the end of August there were only 15 engineers and 2 engineering vehicles at Carnarvon. As each vehicle is equal to 5 engineers the total was 25. The total is now 81. The two newly arriving units had just reached the base but were expected to get to work immediately as it appears that they did not suffer any significant fatigue from their long trip on the desert road.

carneng916a.jpg (143.78 KiB) Viewed 832 times

A closer look at the 2 units show that they are basically the same but are in different stages of filling out their TOE.

cav916carna.jpg (189.02 KiB) Viewed 831 times

Cavite BF is at full TOE and will be adding much more than just engineers to the strength of Carnarvon. The same is true for Cebu BF but it will take some time for the additional "devices" to be added those already available. What is missing are support "devices". Otherwise the unit is complete.

cebu916carna.jpg (189.46 KiB) Viewed 830 times

One interesting thing that will be watched is the ability of the "naval support" in the 2 new units to contribute to the functioning of the base. Carnarvon was originally a "0" port and there is some question about how efficient naval support is in such a base. Time will tell.

[BBfanboy]

Why are the two new BFs still in move mode when they are At Target?

AFAIK, the official 1126a and 1126b versions of the game do not have the 'Naval Support does not work at an SPS (0) port' bug. I am sure that will be one of the bug fixes in the new Version .1127 when it is released.

[WEXF]

Why are the two new BFs still in move mode when they are At Target?

AFAIK, the official 1126a and 1126b versions of the game do not have the 'Naval Support does not work at an SPS (0) port' bug. I am sure that will be one of the bug fixes in the new Version .1127 when it is released.

The two BF shown in move mode are the two that just arrived this turn. They had been "targeted" at Carnarvon when they made the move from Geraldton in August. They will be changed to "combat" mode with today's orders.
This AAR is being played with the "1126a" version of WITP-AE.
WEXF

[WEXF]

The afternoon briefing on the status of OR was exactly as would be expected.

CD9.16.jpg (179.6 KiB) Viewed 785 times

CD increased by the 2000 RP produced, Perth used 2000 RP from the stock at the base and Kalgoorlie added the 3400 to the base supply. No change was seen at Geraldton. At Exmouth, TF449 (xAKLx2) loaded 600 RP. The reduction of 1000 RP from PH is from the final loading of TF9. That TF is fully loaded with 5000 RP and is headed south. At Carnarvon TF231 completed the loading of 550RP on xAK Shooting Star and sailed for Geraldton with 4550 RP. In addition TF219 loaded 1600 RP.
Command has decided to have all of the TF loaded with RP from the north to head for Geraldton and unload there. The hope is that all of the RP will be quickly shipped out using the RR in a similar manner to what happened previously. Time will tell if this decision was the right one or if a change in plans is needed. It was felt that unloading at Geraldton would allow a shorter time for the transport ships to return to the north. Now that AR Castor is based at Geraldton any small amounts of major damage to the ships can be repaired at that base.

[WEXF]

17Sep found the AF at Carnarvon only 68%>L4 despite the arrival of the large number of additional engineers. How did that happen? The answer is simple. Command (me) forget to change their status form "move" to "combat". DRATS! That has been corrected and results should be much better going forward.
The briefing on OR (Operation Resource) was explainable and somewhat interesting.

cd17sepa.jpg (181.95 KiB) Viewed 743 times

No change was seen at PH or Geraldton. CD started with 5479 and after the production of 2000 should have had 7497. However only 6384 are at the base meaning that 1095 RP went somewhere.
Exmouth started with 9309 and loaded 800 on TF449 meaning there should now be 8509. However, there are 9604RP at the Exmouth base, an increase of 1095 over what was expected. Clearly, the 1095 RP that left CD went to Exmouth. TF 449 had started the day with 300RP on each ship. Each ship loaded an additional 400.

tf449sep7a.jpg (91.07 KiB) Viewed 741 times

The change at Carnarvon of 1600 is because of the loading of the 2 ships of 219. Each had already loaded 800 and this turn an additional 800 was loaded.

tf219s17a.jpg (97.84 KiB) Viewed 740 times

Perth started with 11588 and would have been at 9588 if the 2000 RP needed each turn came from the base supply. However, Perth ended with 10002 meaning that 414RP came from somewhere else, likely Kalgoorlie where almost 7000 RP were move out of the base supply, most going down the RR to other locations in Australia.

[WEXF]

18Sep was an interesting day with the newly arrived US Navy engineers and some additional Dutch engineers speeding up the progress on the Carnarvon AF construction. The AF was now 78%>L4.

carvS18a.jpg (187.33 KiB) Viewed 663 times

Unfortunately, RO-33 was again detected patrolling the shallow water near Port Hedland. ASW and mine detection assets allocated to the area will be reviewed.

RO33S18a.jpg (234.9 KiB) Viewed 662 times

The status of OR showed that nothing unusual had happened and that the movement of RP was strictly due to the loading and unloading of various TF.

CD18Sepa.jpg (206.43 KiB) Viewed 661 times

Looking at the bases separately:
CD added the daily 2000 production to the base supply.
Kalgoorlie added the 3700 daily production to the base supply.
Perth used 2000 from the base supply to handle daily needs.
At PH there was no change.
At Exmouth, TF449 loaded 600 RP and has set sail to the south.
At Carnarvon, TF219 loaded all of the 762 RP at the base and now has 3962 of a possible load of 5800. The port is empty but TF 9 carrying 5000 RP will arrive soon and unload.
At Geraldton, TF378 completely unloaded 5000 RP. TF231 is docked and unloading. 1200RP were unloaded and 3350 remain on board. TF 432 has just arrived with 4000RP but was unable to dock. Only 120RP were unloaded so far. The total unloaded by the three TF is: 5000 + 1200 + 120=6320. Added to the 4RP that were already at the base the books are balanced.
Command (me) will be very interested to see what happens to the RP now at Geraldton. Will the be sent to Perth? Will the "system" send additional RP to Carnarvon from CD or PH? Time will tell.

[WEXF]

19Sep found the AF at Carnarvon 87%>L4. At the current rate of construction the project will be complete in only 2 more days. The crew of Arend was most interested in the arrival of TF185 at Carnarvon as it carried a float plane headed for Arend's sister ship AVP Valk.

tf185airfraa.jpg (84.36 KiB) Viewed 614 times

avpValka.jpg (116.8 KiB) Viewed 613 times

Some very interesting news was shared about the air defenses at CD. Up until today the only AA at that important location were 4 12.7mm AAMG. Arriving at the train station today were 24 3.7" MKII AA Gun. The base now had protection to a ceiling of 24,000 feet instead of 3200.

AACDa.jpg (130.08 KiB) Viewed 612 times

No new enemy activity in the air or on the sea had been detected in the region. An afternoon meeting was scheduled to review the status of OR.

[WEXF]

The briefing officer conducting the status report on OR had some interesting information to share. It would take some detailed explanations but he suggested that it would be quite helpful to all who wanted a better understanding of how activities at ports happened.

CD19Sepa.jpg (203.13 KiB) Viewed 577 times

The first part of the briefing dealt with the ports in the north and was quite clear. CD produced the daily 2000 RP and added them to the base supply. No change occurred at PH. It was pointed out that TF343 had just arrived at PH with 3 empty xAKL cargo ships that would be loading RP to head south. At Exmouth 400 RP were loaded on TF314 accounting for the change at that port.

tf314s19a.jpg (84.68 KiB) Viewed 576 times

At Kalgoorlie there were 6808 RP to start the day and 34oo additional were produced bringing the total at the base to 10208. At the end of the day there were just 3426 RP remaining at the base. 6782 RP had left Kalgoorlie to other bases.

Perth started the day with 8002 RP. Each day Perth uses 2000 more RP then it produces locally so there would have been only 6002 left if no additional RP arrived form other bases. At the end of the day Perth has 20985 RP meaning that 14,983 RP arrived at Perth from other bases. It was clear that they could not have all come from Kalgoorlie or the northern bases.

Geraldton started the day with 6324 RP. TF231 unloaded an additional 1200 bringing the total to 7524. TF432 unloaded its remaining 3880 RP bringing the total number of RP at Geraldton to 11,404. At the end of the day there were only 164 RP remaining at Geraldton meaning that 11,240 had left the base to other locations.

What happened at Carnarvon was not easy to explain. At the start of the day the port was empty of RP. TF 219 was docked and ordered to load RP. It already had 3962 RP loaded. At the end of the day no additional RP were loaded on TF219. TF 9 with 5000 RP was at sea 4 hexes away heading for Carnarvon at a speed that would have it arrive late in the day. TF9 arrived but was unable to unload any of its cargo.

tf919sepa.jpg (109.5 KiB) Viewed 570 times

TF449 carrying 2000 RP was also at sea headed for Carnarvon. It was 3 hexes away and at a speed that would have it arrive in the second 12 hour phase of the day. It arrived but was only able to unload 88RP.

tf449ul19sepa.jpg (84.81 KiB) Viewed 569 times

Taken all together there should have been only 88 RP at Carnarvon at the end of the day. However, there are 157. Where did the other 69 come from?

Here is my take on what happened at the various bases. I have no way to know if this is what actually happened but it does make sense to me. The best starting point is Carnarvon. The "program" would likely have noticed that there was a TF docked at the base that was looking for RP to load but that the port was empty of RP. The two TF that were loaded with RP arrived too late in the day to unload or were only able to unload a small number of RP. Timing would have prevented the few unloaded RP from then being loaded on the awaiting TF219. I believe the program sent the 69 RP to Carnarvon and I expect they were from Geraldton given the connection of the road between the two bases. That would have left 11,171 RP at Geraldton that were moved to other locations.
Since Geraldton is connected to Perth by RR and because we have previously seen RP rapidly transfer from Geraldton to Perth it makes sense that the 11,171 RP went by RR to Perth. We know that Perth received 14983 RP from other bases. If 11,171 came from Geraldton the remaining 3812 must have come from the 6782 that left Kalgoorlie. The remainder leaving Kalgoorlie went down the RR to other bases.
I expect that for many this is way too detailed. I find it helpful to better understand the working of our game.

[PaxMondo]

can we get a couple of map shots of the area?

Who owns Busselton, Albany, and Esperance?

[WEXF]

can we get a couple of map shots of the area?

Who owns Busselton, Albany, and Esperance?

Australia Command owns all three. The other bases are part ABDA and part Australia Command. There are no Japanese bases anywhere in Australia.

Areaa.jpg (210.02 KiB) Viewed 531 times

[PaxMondo]

thanks for the map.

OK, so remember when you are doing your material balance that it can also be going to ANY base that it is connected to, not just the ones on your sheet. Since all of OZ is owned by OZ then that means every base is connected to every other base on the continent. That's what makes these balances so difficult to do. Having said that, as you can see on your sheet, you've got it contained 90% of the time. Those occasions when it isn't showing on your sheet, it has moved to some other base. To the best of my knowledge there is never any material "in transit"; all material is present on the map somewhere. Non-supply materials like resources and oil are always in a base. Supply is the only material that can be in a non-base hex only If there is a unit present.

[WEXF]

thanks for the map.

OK, so remember when you are doing your material balance that it can also be going to ANY base that it is connected to, not just the ones on your sheet. Since all of OZ is owned by OZ then that means every base is connected to every other base on the continent. That's what makes these balances so difficult to do. Having said that, as you can see on your sheet, you've got it contained 90% of the time. Those occasions when it isn't showing on your sheet, it has moved to some other base. To the best of my knowledge there is never any material "in transit"; all material is present on the map somewhere. Non-supply materials like resources and oil are always in a base. Supply is the only material that can be in a non-base hex only If there is a unit present.

I completely agree with you. Thanks for the post. The abstraction of "Resource Points" is just that, an abstraction. In this AAR I am focusing on the north and west coast of Oz so where the resource points go down the RR to other Oz bases is not really a concern. My goal is to try to configure the process to maximize the removal of RP from Port Hedland/CD by using cargo TF and adjusting where they unload. So far it looks like unloading at Geraldton makes the most sense. Time will tell.
WEXF

[PaxMondo]

... So far it looks like unloading at Geraldton makes the most sense. Time will tell.
WEXF

I would agree with Geraldton. The RR link there drives up the odds that materials (resources in your case) will move along the rail lines. That is the path of least resistance, so normally it will be the path taken.

[WEXF]

20Sep found the AF at Carnarvon 97%>L4. Just 1 more day is needed to complete the project and allow the engineers to shift to improving the port to L3.
The morning briefing on OR provided some more interesting data.

CD20Sepa.jpg (203.1 KiB) Viewed 457 times

Looking at each base separately shows no activity at Port Hedland. At Exmouth, 400 RP were loaded on TF314 accounting for the change there. At CD daily production should have resulted in a total of 12384 RP at the base but there are only 11346. 1038 RP went somewhere?
At Geraldton TF 231 unloaded 1200 RP that brought the total at the base to 1364. At the end of the day only 75 RP remained meaning that 1289 RP went somewhere, likely down the RR to Perth.
At Perth after the net use of 2000RP, 18985 RP would have remained at the base. There are now 22138 meaning 2153 came from elsewhere. If 1289 came from Geraldton the rest likely came from Kal. where daily activity was similar to what has been happening at that base in the past. 34ooRP are produced daily, some move to Perth with the rest heading down the RR to the rest of Oz.
Carnarvon is a bit more complex. There were only 157RP there but now there are 6731. What happened?
TF 449 unloaded 1600RP (leaving only 312 on board) and TF9 unloaded 4000 (leaving only 1000 on board). That brought the total to 5757.

tf449S20a.jpg (85.43 KiB) Viewed 454 times

tf9S20a.jpg (103.79 KiB) Viewed 452 times

TF219 (undocked because of port size) loaded only 64RP reducing the supply at the port to 5693. The TF is almost fully loaded and will head for Geraldton to unload ASAP. Looking at the numbers shows that the difference between 6731 and 5693 is 1038. That is the exact number of RP that left CD this turn. It seems clear that increasing activity at Carnarvon and Geraldton are helping move RP from the north. The plan seems to be working.

tf219S20a.jpg (126.33 KiB) Viewed 449 times