The Sky’s the Limit- PBEM GC 41 jubjub (Axis) vs. M60A3TTS (Soviet)

[M60A3TTS]

Week 65 13 September 1942

Ground update time! The obligatory graphs.







Air losses are a little over 20k for the war. Consider that in 1943, the Red Air Force will receive 17,600 fighters alone.








Soviet manpower continues it's inexorable climb. As do the guns. AFV losses in many battles rapidly depletes the force, so the overall numbers are much more choppy.

Vehicles



Manpower losses graphed



Front line trace



In the south, any advance needs to be deliberate at this stage. Without a functional rail network, the supplies will not get to where they need to be. So we will not rush ahead.

[M60A3TTS]

Week 66 20 September 1942

Air and ground operations are limited this week. We lose 395 aircraft, of which 376 of these are from air to air combat. Axis losses are 15 aircraft. Almost all the air action is east of Kursk, and some actually unrelated to any Ground Attack missions.



Our air superiority missions are most decidedly air inferiority.




Given the lopsided losses and the increasingly poor weather, the ground attack missions for the 1942 operational year will conclude next week. The VVS will then conduct minimal ops as we plan for a major reorganization of 1943.


On the ground, rail repair along the Caspian Sea makes real progress.




Nothing is happening north of Belgorod, so we'll report on the more active areas.

Ground dispositions near Stalingrad.




Ground disposition along the Caucasus.

[HardLuckYetAgain]

Our air superiority missions are most decidedly air inferiority.

I personally don't mix plane types on an AS mission.

[chaos45]

Air war is just a tad one sided lol....maybe is some miracle cure for Soviet total crap performance in the air but i haven't seen it in any game since starting to play again.

Exchange rates are almost always super one sided---every now and then somehow the soviets will score like a 4:1 exchange of fighters.

Not sure the game needs this one sided of an air combat system....In my game vs tactical i have probably a 1k+ fighters, 1K+ level bombers and hundreds of other aircraft in the pool.....and this is using them extensively for GS missions in 1942- during which ive been losing 100-200 planes a week to Flak/Ops losses and a handful usually to AtA combat in which its a complete turkey shoot anytime the soviets show up to a fight.

This super one-sided system means the Luftwaffe isn't stressed at all in 1941/1942 and thus has tons of built-up equipment when it might be more of a contested fight in 1943+---idk been seeing pretty bad results for soviets then to. Unlike historical where by 1942 the luftwaffe was basically already broken due to losses and fighting all across europe.

Anytime the soviets fly its like 10+:1 exchange ratios its basically suicide to fly as soviets.

[M60A3TTS]

Week 67 27 September 1942

The 1942 air campaign comes to an end.

The campaign that was designed to last 25 weeks from 26 April to 11 October was largely over at the end of August. In effect the campaign lasted 18 weeks. All results compiled come strictly during the Soviet air phase.

Axis casualties inflicted:
83,278 men
1,304 guns
98 AFVs

Soviet air losses:
4,907 pilots killed

448 fighters lost
2,600 fighter bombers lost
2,912 tactical bombers lost
961 level bombers lost
411 recon lost
7,332 total losses

Pilot survival rate of 23% where the aircraft was lost

I do not include any data on German/Axis allied pilots because there would be no point.

The only way this air effort makes any sense is to focus on how many Axis soldiers die on the ground. Every single Soviet plane in effect is expendable and the only measure of success is ground casualties. The fact that the Luftwaffe wins lopsided air battles one after another will not alter the fact that the elimination of over 80,000 Axis troops would have required a considerably higher cost had the Soviet ground forces been required to inflict them. Any number of these air battles preceded a ground attack that undoubtedly saved the lives of attacking Soviet ground troops. In that regard the Luftwaffe can and indeed does reduce the effect by eliminating incoming bombers, but more often than not ours do get through and the Axis ground forces pay the price.

The fighter losses we sustained can fully be expected to continue into 1943-45 and will certainly worsen. It will hardly matter. We lost 3,000 fighters in the 1942 effort. In 1943, we will add 17,000. We lost roughly the same number of tactical bombers, almost 3,000. In 1943 we will build 10,000. We generated 83,000 casualties in 1942. The expectation is to generate more than 100,000 in each of the next two years. We will see.

There won’t be much of significance to report on until the Red Air Force begins to restructure and reorganize beginning around February 1943. The overall structure is not expected to change significantly next year with 30 fighter divisions, 15-16 tactical bomber divisions, and a number of level bomber divisions. With air regiments increasing in size from 20 to 32 in April 1943 that should equate to 4,800 fighters and the same number of tactical aircraft.

[chaos45]

Alot of effort to average 4k casualties a week---and i would assume a good chunk are romanian since you smacked them pretty hard with airpower a couple turns---they seem to take massive losses from air compared to Germans.

5.5 AFV per week of the campaign......

Also i noticed a chunk of the results were only achieved when the Luftwaffe sent no fighters to contest---once the luftwaffe started making more of an appearance results seemed to have collapsed quickly

[M60A3TTS]

Alot of effort to average 4k casualties a week---and i would assume a good chunk are romanian since you smacked them pretty hard with airpower a couple turns---they seem to take massive losses from air compared to Germans.

5.5 AFV per week of the campaign......

Also i noticed a chunk of the results were only achieved when the Luftwaffe sent no fighters to contest---once the luftwaffe started making more of an appearance results seemed to have collapsed quickly

Quite an effort, won't deny it. I didn't mind, but not for everyone. In fairness, I mentioned that from the very beginning. Casualties are harder to come by the more dug in the opposition. Flak too becomes more effective in that case. In 1943 as things open up more, I'm expecting considerably more air targets will not be quite so dug in. That will help the future ground offensives which never was going to be considerable in 1942.

Rumanians were certainly part of the losses. I don't think they comprised the majority. If they were targetable, they could be targeted.

The Luftwaffe made more of an appearance in the south once Leningrad fell. That was an expensive air battle around Lake Ladoga while I fought to keep the isolation off Leningrad and it was only sustainable for a while. But it did delay four full German fighter gruppen from making their appearance in the south for quite some time.

One surprise source of my fighter losses were Luftwaffe Air Superiority missions that pulled my fighters not committed to ground attack missions into battle. The enforced CAP they flew took a little figuring out, so now I know they need to be on rest if they aren't intended to be used in the air phase.

Finally, since the air experience differential will be halved in 1943, I did decide to save some planes and pilots in those final weeks. It seemed unnecessary to go all out to the very end, especially as the weather deteriorated and ground casualties became harder to come by.

[Wiedrock]

they seem to take massive losses from air compared to Germans.

There is no evidence leading towards Axis allies Units taking exponentially more losses by A2G attacks from what I have seen. EDIT: lower MOR/EXP it may be

Week 41 29 March 1942

The end of winter and time to plan ahead. The enemy forces are in very good shape across the board, so a lot of preparation will be required.

There are 12 weeks that have passed since the start of 1942. This leaves 40 weeks in the remainder of the year. The VVS is to plan for operations in 32 of these, allowing 8 weeks for minimal or no operations based on weather or operational pauses.

Pilots
Total 9,561
Ready 8,708
Free 393
Pool 2,339
Train 200. x40 weeks = 8,000 to be trained in the remainder of the year
Strategic Pilot Reserve 2,767
Total pilot reserves including those to be trained in 1942 13,499

Aircraft
FFB Pool 1,714 (excludes all I-Type fighters)
Tac Pool 1,519
LB Pool 3,044
210 FFB produced weekly x40 weeks 8,400 for year
160 Tac produced weekly x40 weeks 6,400 for year
98 LB produced weekly x40 weeks ~ 4,000 for year
Recon a/c 339 in pool 6 built each week x40 weeks 240 for year
Transport a/c 26 in pool (not including U-2(tr)) 13 Li-2 per week 520 for year

Organization
163 FFB regts on map
29 are in the Strategic Pilot Reserve, leaving 134.
We have 63 tactical bomber groups flying Su-2 and Il-2 aircraft.
Will have 12 ShADs on turn 60. 1,4,6,9 SAD and 9ShaD Kbf remain on map. Will pick up 6 ShADs and 1 SAD by week 48, giving us full AOG coverage for tactical air groups.
Will have 12 IADs on turn 51.
There are 13 air groups flying IL-4 level bombers on map.

Air reconnaissance begins in earnest as the VVS attempts to identify enemy troop concentrations. There are 7 AOGs assigned to various air commands dedicated to reconnaissance. We begin the effort with 478 recon aircraft on map and in the reserves. A total of 30 are lost in this first week which isn’t sustainable long term, but this battlefield intelligence is needed for the short term. A total of 81 air missions are flown, with groups varying in size from 2 to 14. There is a motorized corps in the Rostov area which includes 5th and 9th Panzer Divisions, but very little else of a mobile nature seen at this stage. 6th Panzer Division and SS Totenkopf have been holding the line up north along the Volkhov River.

Week 67 27 September 1942

The 1942 air campaign comes to an end.

The campaign that was designed to last 25 weeks from 26 April to 11 October was largely over at the end of August. In effect the campaign lasted 18 weeks. All results compiled come strictly during the Soviet air phase.

Axis casualties inflicted:
83,278 men
1,304 guns
98 AFVs

Soviet air losses:
4,907 pilots killed

448 fighters lost
2,600 fighter bombers lost
2,912 tactical bombers lost
961 level bombers lost
411 recon lost
7,332 total losses

Pilot survival rate of 23% where the aircraft was lost

I do not include any data on German/Axis allied pilots because there would be no point.

The only way this air effort makes any sense is to focus on how many Axis soldiers die on the ground. Every single Soviet plane in effect is expendable and the only measure of success is ground casualties. The fact that the Luftwaffe wins lopsided air battles one after another will not alter the fact that the elimination of over 80,000 Axis troops would have required a considerably higher cost had the Soviet ground forces been required to inflict them. Any number of these air battles preceded a ground attack that undoubtedly saved the lives of attacking Soviet ground troops. In that regard the Luftwaffe can and indeed does reduce the effect by eliminating incoming bombers, but more often than not ours do get through and the Axis ground forces pay the price.

The fighter losses we sustained can fully be expected to continue into 1943-45 and will certainly worsen. It will hardly matter. We lost 3,000 fighters in the 1942 effort. In 1943, we will add 17,000. We lost roughly the same number of tactical bombers, almost 3,000. In 1943 we will build 10,000. We generated 83,000 casualties in 1942. The expectation is to generate more than 100,000 in each of the next two years. We will see.

There won’t be much of significance to report on until the Red Air Force begins to restructure and reorganize beginning around February 1943. The overall structure is not expected to change significantly next year with 30 fighter divisions, 15-16 tactical bomber divisions, and a number of level bomber divisions. With air regiments increasing in size from 20 to 32 in April 1943 that should equate to 4,800 fighters and the same number of tactical aircraft.

Nice campaign with good I'd say appropriate results. And thanks for pointing out the new production numbers so people can better see that the crazy losses Soviets take (it's hard to cope with eastern front numbers for everyone) do not rly matter due to the massive production/allied deliveries they get.
Any reason why you did not include Axis Air (plane) losses? There were some good weeks with lost Axis planes for you.

[jubjub]

There is no evidence leading towards Axis allies Units taking exponentially more losses by A2G attacks from what I have seen. EDIT: lower MOR/EXP it may be

On the other hand, they have AA built into their TOE, whereas the German infantry doesn't have any. I'm not sure if this was an oversight or not, but it's a pretty annoying flaw in the German TOE.

[HardLuckYetAgain]

There is no evidence leading towards Axis allies Units taking exponentially more losses by A2G attacks from what I have seen. EDIT: lower MOR/EXP it may be

On the other hand, they have AA built into their TOE, whereas the German infantry doesn't have any. I'm not sure if this was an oversight or not, but it's a pretty annoying flaw in the German TOE.

I have a documented case of Chaos45 blowing the Rumanian Guard div down to 48ish Toe from 90ish toe when stacked with two other German units that Rumanian guards div was obliterated by a flood of soviet bombers. Of course this is just one instance and can be a total outlier

Germans took small losses, a percent or two

[M60A3TTS]

Week 68 4 October 1942

The only action this week are a few isolated Axis attacks in the south. Red Army forces of the Don and Stalingrad Fronts gain strength while holding the positions along the Chir River southwest of Serafimovich, Kletskaya and Kalach.




Farther south, Marshal Kulik has been replaced as commander of North Caucasus Front. Rail repair continue now to the west, while the ground forces remain in static positions.

[M60A3TTS]

Week 69 11 October 1942

It is raining everywhere and heavy mud pervades the battlefield north of Voronezh. Light mud everywhere else. No fights this week. Rail repair in the far south is ongoing. The Axis defense lines are clearly forming up. No armor detected yet.




Two of our armies, one of cavalry and one of tank sets course to the south across the steppes. Supply set to zero as they have adequate food and fuel to make the trip to the North Caucasus Front.




We will be saying goodbye to the Generals Map Mod as this is the last week we play under the final 1.03 version of the game that I have the map mod set for. jubjub and I upgrade to v4 for Week 70. It's just as well, the white background of that map mod is harder to work with in winter.

[M60A3TTS]

Any reason why you did not include Axis Air (plane) losses? There were some good weeks with lost Axis planes for you.

I didn't think Axis losses were anything that would be considered significant. You can judge for yourself.

[M60A3TTS]

Week 70 18 October 1942

















Here is where 95% of the action will be taking place for the forseeable future.

[tm1]

So with The Axis falling back in The Caucuses the oil fields are now secure but how is the North and whats the situation on The Moscow Front I cant remember seeing a strategic picture of the situation.
Are you advancing on Leningrad or will you wait for a collapse in the South ?

[M60A3TTS]

The area east of Leningrad has seen no action for many months. The 13th Army has positions to the west of the Volkhov River where the 29th Army are defending east of the river.




On the road to Moscow, again the line has been quiet throughout 1942. We have held both Tula and Rzhev the entire war while Kaluga has remained in German hands.

[gingerbread]

Week 67 27 September 1942

...the elimination of over 80,000 Axis troops would have required a considerably higher cost had the Soviet ground forces been required to inflict them.

Week 70 18 October 1942

Here is where 95% of the action will be taking place for the forseeable future.

Impressive playing effort, though I assume that after a couple of turns, ones brain adapts with new neural paths and the activity changes from tedious work to dull chore. Well done sticking to it! 80k will not win the war but will contribute.

I was though hoping for an analogue treatise on how to conduct a ground effort, using the '43 assault front and a massive artillery commitment that would trade men in a negative but overall favourable ratio; away from the main action and keep the Axis honest, that is preventing just moving all reserves to there.

Is that the missing 5%? I'm still hoping.

Thanks for the vehicle numbers.

[FortTell]

Week 70 18 October 1942

You should start building heavy tank regiments, they are available since October. Better use your KVs before Tigers and Panthers arrive, also these regiments are instantly promoted to Guards.

[M60A3TTS]

Week 71 25 October 1942

Pouring rains across the front. Winter weather is fast approaching.

Two Soviet fronts, North Caucasus and Transcaucasus with a combined strength of 10 armies with almost 800,000 men, over 11,000 guns and 1,900 tanks supported by over 750 aircraft prepare to attack to the west. Only 7 German infantry divisions, 2 mountain divisions and a pair of Rumanian mountain divisions appear opposite Soviet forces. Colonel General Vassilevsky commands the overall operation.

The object of the offensive will be to drive the Axis forces from Maikop and Krasnodar. Following this will be a drive to the Sea of Azov, splitting their forces, and a dual push northwest to the River Don by Rostov while a southern grouping moves towards the Kerch Peninsula.

The difficulty presented by the terrain presents some legitimate issues. The Central Caucasus Mountains insures a solid southern flank for both sides, leaving only a push originating in the north as the only practical means of outflanking the defenders. This could of course potentially applies to both sides. Rough terrain in the area of Stavropol means that an easy way around the River Kuban will be problematic with only a 40 mile gap south of the rough terrain that runs to the foothills of the Caucasus.

Logistically Soviet forces are also faced with the challenge of limitations within the railroads of the area. From Rostov to Grozny, all interim railyards are of minimal size. This means that replacing combat losses in addition to supplying these two Soviet fronts with significant mechanized forces will not be as easy as appears at first glance. It also means bringing any additional units to the front by rail would heavily tax an already strained line, making it unlikely anything will be sent over this route.

Farther north, the terrain is wide open with virtually no rail infrastructure except for a single spur running east from Kropotkin. What rail exists in the Axis zone of control contain apparently more than enough potential depots including some supplies through Black Sea ports. Soviet supplies through the available Black Sea ports are only able to assist a handful of divisions belonging to the Coastal Operations Group Army of Lieutenant General Vsevolod Yakovlev.

[M60A3TTS]

Week 70 18 October 1942

You should start building heavy tank regiments, they are available since October. Better use your KVs before Tigers and Panthers arrive, also these regiments are instantly promoted to Guards.

Interesting point. I am not really a fan of heavy tank regiments until the IS-2 arrives at the end of 1943.

From the historical perspective KV-1 production was being phased out around the time the heavy regiments came into being in late 1942. They were replaced by a lighter version of the KV-1, namely KV-1S. The idea was that the original KV-1 was chronically lagging behind the other, faster tank elements which in turn cancelled out their benefits. The KV-1S was a lighter tank that essentially mounted the exact same gun as it's predecessor. So in game terms, the KV-1S is really an inferior weapon, although even that doesn't tell the whole story. By Spring 1942, the Germans already were developing several answers for dealing with the KV-1 and T-34s. The 37mm PaK was replaced by a 50mm version. StuG B and E versions with the short 75mm gun of the Panzer IVE/F were equipped with a 75mm AT gun on the F and G versions. The Germans were also busy putting 75mm and captured Soviet 76.2mm AT guns on light tank chassis, creating various panzerjager and Marder type vehicles. The Panzer IVF2 and IVG with a 75mm gun were arriving in the field. Tungsten ammunition and improved HEAT rounds were also beginning to become available for the German 50mm tank guns, affording greater penetration values.

So essentially, the KV-1S was shedding armor after the German tanks and ATGs were already able to get through more armor. See below for game comparisons of the two KV-1s.



Eventually the Soviets drew the necessary conclusion that the KV series was a dead end and the IS series that replaced it provided better firepower, even though the ammunition carried was notoriously limited. So as long as I can build T-34 equipped brigades that have more tanks with the same armor penetration values than a KV heavy regiment and can eventually become guards, that lead to corps, that is my priority.



Now again, when IS-2 comes out at the end of 1943, then the heavy regiments are a worthy consideration.