Ural Cossack Surrender-Free Unit bug?

[OldCrowBalthazor]

Hi playing an MP match as White. Things got fluid (as they should be) and eventually the Reds besieged and took the Ural Cossack's capital. I had a U.C. Cossack unit way north out of the home territory in Penza and the HQ east (also out of the home territory)
Units in original positions circled in image.
After the capital and state surrendered, those units specified disappeared.

I thought they would become 'Free' like they do with Serbia in SC-WW1

Here's the rule:
Upon the conquest of the following nations, their units will fight on as “free units” under
the command of another friendly major, provided the unit was not in the territory of its home
nation at the time of the surrender:
Northern Whites, Ural Whites, Southern Whites, Astrakhan Cossacks, Don Cossacks,
Kuban Cossacks, Ukraine, Terek Cossacks and Ural Cossacks.

So is there a bug or a random roll?

[BiteNibbleChomp]

I've checked the script, it's a 100% chance for units to fight on here. (It's a 25% roll for the Northern Whites and 75% for the Ural Whites, all others are 100).

Might be worth double checking the units that disappeared were indeed Ural Cossacks?

- BNC

[OldCrowBalthazor]

I've checked the script, it's a 100% chance for units to fight on here. (It's a 25% roll for the Northern Whites and 75% for the Ural Whites, all others are 100).

Might be worth double checking the units that disappeared were indeed Ural Cossacks?

- BNC

They were absolutely Ural Cossacks. One was a cavalry unit and one was an Hq as specified in the image. If I have to, I will provide a screen shot from my recording, but was hesitant to do that as its a spoiler as its for my upcoming YT series. That turn of disappearance won't air to Jan 23, 2023.
Also, since Ural Cossacks are a Ural White Minor, does that 75% apply to them also?. In addition, on Discord, Bill asked if the Southern Whites are still in? They are. (Its July 18, 1919). So question is why would it be necessary for Southern Whites to be in?

[OldCrowBalthazor]

I've checked the script, it's a 100% chance for units to fight on here. (It's a 25% roll for the Northern Whites and 75% for the Ural Whites, all others are 100).

Might be worth double checking the units that disappeared were indeed Ural Cossacks?

- BNC

Ryan. Here's a screenshot of the dispositions the turn before the Ural Cossack capital fell.

edit: Copy of a post I made on the SC-WW1 Discord
Something is goofy here. BiteNibbleChomp wrote over in the SC-WW1 Matrix forum Ural Whites units outside their home territory have a 75% chance of success to be Free upon surrender.
Ural Cossacks are a Ural White Minor, so that could apply. (Not sure need confirmation if Minors get the parent Major percentage chance or not).
Bill here says the script assigns Ural Cossacks to the South Whites.
Southern Whites supposedly go Free 100% of the time.

Could be crossed hairs here concerning Ural Cossacks being Ural White Minors but assigned to Southern Whites..
OR
Ural Cossacks indeed get a 75% chance of being Free if out side their home country.
If the latter was the case, with two seperate rolls on each of the units outside Ural Cossack Territory, then I had really bad luck that both units surrendered (disappeared). See below..

Two outcomes each have a 75% chance of success, the probability of both outcomes failing is 0.0625, or 6.25%:  Explanation: The probability of failure, \(q\), is calculated by subtracting the probability of success, \(p\), from 1: \(q=1-p\). In this case, \(p=0.75\), so \(q=1-0.75=0.25\). The probability of both outcomes failing is \(0.25\times 0.25=0.0625\), or 6.25%. The binomial distribution is a statistical tool that can be used to model situations where there are repeated trials with only two outcomes, such as success and failure. The sum of the probabilities of success and failure in a binomial experiment is always one.

[BiteNibbleChomp]

If Northern Whites surrender, there's a 25% chance that the Northern White units fight on.
If Southern Whites surrender, there's a 75% chance that the Southern White units fight on.
100% chance applies for all other nations for which the Free Unit rule applies (or at least it should). There's no binomial rules or any such things at play here (though your write-up reminds me of some of the spreadsheets I use to calculate FS events and the like ) - each nation rolls its own percentage chance and that's it. For Ural Cossack, that should be 100%.

Per the code of the relevant script, when Ural Cossack surrenders, their free units should fight on as minors of the Southern Whites - that's why Bill was asking if they were still in the fight or not.
However, while they are alive Ural Cossack is a minor of Ural Whites. I'm guessing the discrepancy here is the issue - though I'll have to test it a bit to be sure. The only other explanation I can think of is that there's something breaking FREE UNIT scripts as a whole - in which case the issue would presumably have affected other campaigns also.

I'll look into this some more.

- BNC

[OldCrowBalthazor]

If Northern Whites surrender, there's a 25% chance that the Northern White units fight on.
If Southern Whites surrender, there's a 75% chance that the Southern White units fight on.
100% chance applies for all other nations for which the Free Unit rule applies (or at least it should). There's no binomial rules or any such things at play here (though your write-up reminds me of some of the spreadsheets I use to calculate FS events and the like ) - each nation rolls its own percentage chance and that's it. For Ural Cossack, that should be 100%.

Per the code of the relevant script, when Ural Cossack surrenders, their free units should fight on as minors of the Southern Whites - that's why Bill was asking if they were still in the fight or not.
However, while they are alive Ural Cossack is a minor of Ural Whites. I'm guessing the discrepancy here is the issue - though I'll have to test it a bit to be sure. The only other explanation I can think of is that there's something breaking FREE UNIT scripts as a whole - in which case the issue would presumably have affected other campaigns also.

I'll look into this some more.

- BNC

Oh one roll per Major, not one roll per unit of a Major? Thank the gods no need for the binomials. I needed an AI agent for the former lol.
Well anyways my break-out attempt with at least one of my Ural Cossack cavalry caused a lot of consternation with the Bolsheviks, especially at Penza. Too bad they disappeared like ghosts. They were trying to find armored train spawn positions.
Well, another deep penetrating White cavalry does .............................

[BiteNibbleChomp]

Oh one roll per Major, not one roll per unit of a Major?

It's per unit.
My main point there is that the % chance of the Southern Whites (75%) won't have any impact on the chance for Ural Cossacks. All U/C units get a 100% roll.

I can see now why modders find the code confusing sometimes I write the things for a living and it still takes me multiple posts to explain it

- BNC

[OldCrowBalthazor]

Oh one roll per Major, not one roll per unit of a Major?

It's per unit.
My main point there is that the % chance of the Southern Whites (75%) won't have any impact on the chance for Ural Cossacks. All U/C units get a 100% roll.

I can see now why modders find the code confusing sometimes I write the things for a living and it still takes me multiple posts to explain it

- BNC

Well, then something didn't work with the Ural Cossacks then..if they are 100% free outside their home territory. I wonder if that happens with the others?
Like I said before, when I saw a horde of Reds bearing down on the Ural Cossack capital, well we resisted for awhile, and then I had a few units make for the border haha. One got to Penza creating White Terror along the way

[BiteNibbleChomp]

Well, I did some testing on this one today. Thought I'd be fiddling with scripts for a while, instead did one test, found something that can only have one explanation, and then thought "I wonder if there's something in the manual about this?".

Turns out there is, here's your answer:

1.png (82.83 KiB) Viewed 470 times

Both Penza and that no-name place in the steppe are core Bolshevik territory, the latter by one hex.

Now the bigger mystery is, how have I gone 16 years playing this series, and designing one game and parts of two others, and still be somehow learning the rules of the game?

No fixes needed

- BNC

[OldCrowBalthazor]

Well, I did some testing on this one today. Thought I'd be fiddling with scripts for a while, instead did one test, found something that can only have one explanation, and then thought "I wonder if there's something in the manual about this?".

Turns out there is, here's your answer:
1.png

Both Penza and that no-name place in the steppe are core Bolshevik territory, the latter by one hex.

Now the bigger mystery is, how have I gone 16 years playing this series, and designing one game and parts of two others, and still be somehow learning the rules of the game?

No fixes needed

- BNC

I'll be damned!
Man it sure payed to screenshot that exact locations of those two units.
In the WW1 campaign game, when Serbia begins to collapse, we always try to escape our Serbs into Albania. Albania...an Entente State.
Well mystery solved and timely too incase I have one of my White Minor Powers in danger of being over-run and need a bolt hole to escape to. Certainly not core enemy territory.
Thanks Ryan.
This whole deal has perplexed me for a week.....
Cheers