Looking for feedback on Cold War scenario ideas

[Mgellis]

Friends,

I am trying to come up with interesting and original ideas for alternate historical situations set during the Cold War that might lead to conflict. I would like your opinions on this one...

The war began with skirmishes between Turkish and Romanian forces. The Soviets, fearing this was the beginning of a large, coordinated attack against the Warsaw Pact, conducted air strikes across Europe. It is now deemed necessary to eliminate any deployed Soviet naval forces. Leaving them intact at this point would encourage further Soviet aggression, but as long as the Russian homeland is not itself attacked, a point being communicated through diplomatic back channels, Western leaders believe a larger war can avoided.

How would you rate this?

1. Utterly unbelievable
2. Meh. Yeah, it's just a game, but this is kind of dumb
3. Not sure
4. Plausible
5. Very plausible

Thanks in advance.

[HalfLifeExpert]

My first thought was "why Turkey vs Romania?", especially since Turkey actually shares a border with Bulgaria, also a WP member. What is the catalyst for this international skirmish-to-war?

Other than that, I think the setup is good and somewhat plausible.

The one exception to attacking deployed Soviet warships would probably be Nuclear Missile submarines, as striking those, in such a context, would likely be seen in the Kremlin as a probable prelude to nuclear war. If this is for the scenario you previewed in the FB group (set in 1970) that means not attacking the Yankee & Hotel SSBNs, as well as Golf SSBs, if there are any at sea. The problem of course being that such pre-Delta class Soviet boomers all had to move rather close to North America to be in a valuable deterrent position. The Bastion concept was not doable at that point in Cold War One

[PN79]

My first thought was also why Turkey vs Romania.

But why not Turkey vs Bulgaria. Some border incident spiralling out of control.

Another thing is time period. If it is in first half of 1980s Soviets could be indeed scared that it is NATO conspiracy to test Warsaw Pact resolve by conspiring conflict between one Warsaw Pact member vs one NATO member. But if Soviets decide that military response is necessary I think that their limited option would be simply hit just Turkey and nobody else with explanation that they are just defending their ally Bulgaria with goal to stop Turkish aggression. Any NATO attack in any other area against Soviets or other Warsaw Pact states would be than understand as start of unlimited ww3.

The option to start air attacks by Soviets against other NATO assets encounters problem how and with what force to be effective. In central Europe on NATO side is HAWK belt and strong NATO air patrols (Americans mainly). So the soviet air strike has to be limited to just some border wooden shed on border (i.e. pointless) or requires full Warsaw Pact air power (including East German, Czechoslovak and Polish air forces) to attack HAWK belt and beyond - that is full scale air war.

Other possibility could be Soviet limited attack on some secondary NATO area (northern Norway ? or danish Bornholm island) as a show of force. But again NATO retaliation anywhere would just let to confirmation that the original conflict between Turkey and Bulgaria is NATO conspiracy so next step would be to get initiative in ww3 which in soviet eyes already started.

[Mgellis]

Thanks. This is helpful.

My original thought was that the initial incident was caused by Turkish and Romanian ships in the Black Sea harassing each other and something gets out of hand, someone panics, there is a collision, or something of that nature. Confused messages get sent to various other forces and a Soviet cruiser near Crete decides a Turkish destroyer is a little too close and opens fire. Now we've got at least one Turkish ship sunk, maybe one Romanian ship severely damaged, and people worried that this is the beginning of World War III.

But, yes, realistically, now that I think about it, there probably wouldn't be air strikes. Jets on both sides would probably be scrambled, but probably both sides would be taking a defensive posture, getting ready to stop an attack...and when that attack does not come (because neither side was planning to attack), things settle down.

So, it's back to the drawing board for the background of the scenario. I suppose I can always just say, "Yes, the Soviet have attacked and you must complete this mission..." but I was hoping to come up with something a little more original.

[HalfLifeExpert]

Perhaps the incident could be between Turkey and the USSR directly? They do share a significant land border.

An escalation in tensions there could be a more plausible path to a limited Cold War Gone Hot

[Mgellis]

This is a good idea. Something like...

* Turkish and Soviet troops clash at the border
* Soviet and Turkish naval groups confront one another near Crete; Turkish loss
* NATO retaliates by attacking Soviet naval deployments in the Mediterranean; no attacks against Soviet territory or Soviet air bases take place; the war is currently limited to confrontations on the high seas
* Soviets also decide to not escalate further by striking NATO air bases; after a couple of short, fierce naval battles, Soviet leaders suggest a cease-fire, which NATO accepts

How plausible is that?

Another possibility for other not-World War III scenarios would be non-nuclear nations from the two alliances getting into a conflict, but the nuclear powers standing back and letting the two non-nuclear nations fight things out. As long as there was not a large scale invasion, the superpowers would not need to get directly involved. It would be the same as a proxy war, except instead of Israel vs. Syria, it would be, say, Turkey vs. Bulgaria.

Any thoughts on all this?

Perhaps the incident could be between Turkey and the USSR directly? They do share a significant land border.

An escalation in tensions there could be a more plausible path to a limited Cold War Gone Hot

[PN79]

That Soviet - Turkish clash looks nice and plausible.

Proxy war could be quite realistic (depending on decade) but then there would not be any clashes with soviet navy.

One possible naval confrontation could be due to Libya. In real time Libya toyed with possibility to join Warsaw Pact. So in hypothetical scenario these talks about joining Warsaw Pact could be taken seriously and Soviet naval group was sent to morally support Libya against USA violation of Libyan claimed waters. And from there one can get to a single surprise naval clash in Mediterranean but both sides (USA, USSR) would soon communicate on cease fire to not start ww3. This could be plausible in second half of 1980s.

[bsmithwins]

Background for a plausible Turkey/Sov clash: The Soviets have been funding/are accused by Turkey of funding Kurdish terrorist groups, who have recently pulled off a successful attack.

If Turkey attacks the Soviet Union then I don't think that article 5 is invokable, leaving you with a Turkey/SU limited war.