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A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Moderator: Shannon V. OKeets
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 4. Mar/Apr 1940. Start of Turn. Pre-Briefs. Axis Major Powers.
Ronnie
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 4. Mar/Apr 1940. Start of Turn. Pre-Briefs. Allied Major Powers.
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Ronnie
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 4. Mar/Apr 1940. Axis #1. AAR Format Expansion.
(1) I've decide to expand this AAR format to include impulse by impulse narratives.
(2) I will still at the end of each turn provide theater by theater summaries including the entire turn combat logs.
(3) However; I feel that I can better capture the action by expanding my format to include impulse narratives.
(4) The only reduction in the end of turn AAR dumps is that impulse written narratives will be included in the impulse narrative posts.
(1) I've decide to expand this AAR format to include impulse by impulse narratives.
(2) I will still at the end of each turn provide theater by theater summaries including the entire turn combat logs.
(3) However; I feel that I can better capture the action by expanding my format to include impulse narratives.
(4) The only reduction in the end of turn AAR dumps is that impulse written narratives will be included in the impulse narrative posts.
Ronnie
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 4. Mar/Apr 1940. Axis #1. Pre-Briefs.
Germany.
(1) OKW and Army Group West commanded by von Rundstedt have interpreted pre-briefs as strong recommendations from OKH but not direct orders; unless directly ordered by the Fuhrer.
(2) This will be evident when I get into the planning and action on the Western Front.
(3) Specifically; the "strong" suggestion to bypass (for now) UK forces on the coast, which includes the UK Rotterdam redoubt.
(4) Breaking character for a moment, I as a player have certain tendencies, which I know I have and often times try to ignore is risky or not the best move.
(5) However; sometimes my tendencies have such a large pull, like Jupiter's gravity, that I'll let go and get pulled in.
(6) Was this such a time?
(7) And if it was, did it work out or did it "force a morale check"?
Italy, Japan.
(8) I intend to only comment on these pre-briefs if a major power's moves deviated from the intention of their pre-brief.
(9) I will not comment at this point, but at the appropriate point in the impulse narrative on moves that were in addition to, or a bonus to, the pre-brief.
(10) As such, no implementation attempt deviations from either Italy's or Japan's pre-briefs below.
Germany.
(1) OKW and Army Group West commanded by von Rundstedt have interpreted pre-briefs as strong recommendations from OKH but not direct orders; unless directly ordered by the Fuhrer.
(2) This will be evident when I get into the planning and action on the Western Front.
(3) Specifically; the "strong" suggestion to bypass (for now) UK forces on the coast, which includes the UK Rotterdam redoubt.
(4) Breaking character for a moment, I as a player have certain tendencies, which I know I have and often times try to ignore is risky or not the best move.
(5) However; sometimes my tendencies have such a large pull, like Jupiter's gravity, that I'll let go and get pulled in.
(6) Was this such a time?
(7) And if it was, did it work out or did it "force a morale check"?
Italy, Japan.
(8) I intend to only comment on these pre-briefs if a major power's moves deviated from the intention of their pre-brief.
(9) I will not comment at this point, but at the appropriate point in the impulse narrative on moves that were in addition to, or a bonus to, the pre-brief.
(10) As such, no implementation attempt deviations from either Italy's or Japan's pre-briefs below.
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Ronnie
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 4. Mar/Apr 1940. Axis #1. Med.
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Ronnie
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 4. Mar/Apr 1940. Axis #1. Asian Theater.
Combat Logs.
Land Combat Planning Worksheet.
Land Combat Actuals.
Combat Logs.
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Ronnie
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 4. Mar/Apr 1940. Axis #1. Asian Theater.
China. End of Impulse.
China. End of Impulse.
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Ronnie
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 4. Mar/Apr 1940. Axis #1. Asian Theater.
Manchuria. End of Impulse.
Manchuria. End of Impulse.
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Ronnie
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 4. Mar/Apr 1940. Axis #1. The Eastern Front.
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Ronnie
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 4. Mar/Apr 1940. Axis #1. The Western Front.
Introduction.
(1) I have a couple of tendencies that pull me to actions sometimes against better judgement.
(2) A strong one is anti-partisan garrisoning.
(3) I hate partisans and prioritize garrisons at an effort sometimes much greater than the risk.
(4) Now, this tendency paid off this very game in that I ensure that the Palembang NEI Oil (x2) was covered against the low ~2% partisan risk which did indeed manifest on turn 1.
(5) However; will I've devoted four points to discussing this tendency, this had nothing to do with the risk/reward decision I made this impulse in regards to Germany.
(6) I let you guys be the judge of the risk/reward decision and whether or not it's worth the possible morale check, game disruption and rage quit.
(7) But, I'm getting ahead of myself and whether or not things "worked out".
(8) Now back to character ...
Attack Planning.
General von Rundstedt was on his way from his front line HQ in Aachen, near the Belgium border, to meet with the Fuhrer on his armored train in Cologne. Accompanying von Rundstedt was Col Student, commander of the 1st regiment and spearhead of the FJR div.
In compliance with OKH's pre-brief "recommendations", von Rundstedt's staff had evaluated two plans (BL1 & BL2) for the imminent surprise invasion of Belgium. BL1 was the capture of Brussels, Antwerp and Liege on the surprise impulse and BL2 was the capture of Brussels and Liege only on the surprise impulse. BL1 carried with it a 12.2% risk that Brussels would hold out and allow the British to reinforce the Belgium capital before the Wehrmacht could secure it. BL2 carried less than 1% risk of that but left Antwerp open to allied reinforcement.
Having an entire British army in his rear after pushing into Belgium, no matter which plan implement (i.e., BL1 or BL2) just wasn't sitting right with von Rundstedt. If fact, it's been gnawing at him and likely his Fuhrer for a while now. So, von Rundstedt order his staff to consider a bold plan (OC). OC would pair an O-chit with von Rundstedt and include assaults on Brussels, Liege and Rotterdam. While it left Antwerp open for reinforcements, any such reinforcements would eventually be vulnerable attackable from five hexes. Well, that is assuming the UK position is Rotterdam can be cleared out and that's the rub.
Plan OC assumed a surprise ground strike (5x2) vs Brussels (2 BEL inf corps) and a doubled artillery ground strike (2 divs, 4x2, 3x2) vs Rotterdam (inf, MIL, arty, F2). The chance of flipping both BEL inf corps was 56.3%, one corps was 37.5% and nothing was 6.3%. Being reasonable conservative, von Rundstedt's planning staff assumed 1 of 2 corps flipped (+2) vs the expected (+3 = 0.74 x 4). With this assumption, his planners estimated a conservative +14A and 94% PWIN.
Now for Rotterdam and to the extreme frustration of von Rundstedt, his planners gave a range for a "reasonable" conservative estimate of 9.591A to 12.553A or 60.3% to 82.3% PWIN. This range included both the doubled artillery ground strikes (po=0.824) vs 2 corps, 1 div, 1 fighter wing and possibility of RAF defensive ground support. Needless to say, von Rundstedt was less than satisfied with the range but accepted it as he fully trusts the analytical skills of his veteran planning staff.
When factored with the 94% PWIN for Brussels, this gave a overall operation success range of 56.7% to 77.4%. After getting this late evening briefing, eating a light light night supper and sleeping 4 hours on this; von Rundstedt decided to "literally" roll the dice, risk his career and recommend plan OC to the Fuhrer. With the tease of clearing out the festering Rotterdam blight, von Rundstedt was able to secure a late morning (1100) meeting with the Fuhrer. To the dismay of OKH senior generals, whom von Rundstedt bypassed by his direct meeting with Hitler, von Rundstedt was able to convince the Fuhrer of the merits of plan OC. The Fuhrer order that plan OC be immediately implemented, congratulated von Rundstedt on his boldness and scolded his OKH generals on their timidly.
Having gotten his deviation, Plan OC, approved, von Rundstedt left Cologne for his HQ in Aachen with both elation and deep worry. If HIS plan fails it will not only be the end of his career but could well be a stalemate on the Western Front as was in the Great War. Quickly pushing this out of his mind, von Rundstedt enjoyed the sunny ride back to his HQ. Once there; he issued the necessary orders to his staff and subordinate commands to prepare for the invasion of Belgium, execution of Plan OC for tomorrow. After issuing the orders, the success or failure of plan OC was now out of his hands and in the hands of his subordinates and their soldiers and airmen. It was early evening, von Rundstedt was both hungry and tried. He had an early supper, a small glass of whiskey and went to bed with orders to be awaked at 0400 barring the unexpected or any important communication from OKH. As he drifted off to some needed sleep, von Rundstedt marveled how high command carrier such responsibility but was dependent upon so many other people including 10,000's of privates, corporals and sergeants.
Introduction.
(1) I have a couple of tendencies that pull me to actions sometimes against better judgement.
(2) A strong one is anti-partisan garrisoning.
(3) I hate partisans and prioritize garrisons at an effort sometimes much greater than the risk.
(4) Now, this tendency paid off this very game in that I ensure that the Palembang NEI Oil (x2) was covered against the low ~2% partisan risk which did indeed manifest on turn 1.
(5) However; will I've devoted four points to discussing this tendency, this had nothing to do with the risk/reward decision I made this impulse in regards to Germany.
(6) I let you guys be the judge of the risk/reward decision and whether or not it's worth the possible morale check, game disruption and rage quit.
(7) But, I'm getting ahead of myself and whether or not things "worked out".
(8) Now back to character ...
Attack Planning.
General von Rundstedt was on his way from his front line HQ in Aachen, near the Belgium border, to meet with the Fuhrer on his armored train in Cologne. Accompanying von Rundstedt was Col Student, commander of the 1st regiment and spearhead of the FJR div.
In compliance with OKH's pre-brief "recommendations", von Rundstedt's staff had evaluated two plans (BL1 & BL2) for the imminent surprise invasion of Belgium. BL1 was the capture of Brussels, Antwerp and Liege on the surprise impulse and BL2 was the capture of Brussels and Liege only on the surprise impulse. BL1 carried with it a 12.2% risk that Brussels would hold out and allow the British to reinforce the Belgium capital before the Wehrmacht could secure it. BL2 carried less than 1% risk of that but left Antwerp open to allied reinforcement.
Having an entire British army in his rear after pushing into Belgium, no matter which plan implement (i.e., BL1 or BL2) just wasn't sitting right with von Rundstedt. If fact, it's been gnawing at him and likely his Fuhrer for a while now. So, von Rundstedt order his staff to consider a bold plan (OC). OC would pair an O-chit with von Rundstedt and include assaults on Brussels, Liege and Rotterdam. While it left Antwerp open for reinforcements, any such reinforcements would eventually be vulnerable attackable from five hexes. Well, that is assuming the UK position is Rotterdam can be cleared out and that's the rub.
Plan OC assumed a surprise ground strike (5x2) vs Brussels (2 BEL inf corps) and a doubled artillery ground strike (2 divs, 4x2, 3x2) vs Rotterdam (inf, MIL, arty, F2). The chance of flipping both BEL inf corps was 56.3%, one corps was 37.5% and nothing was 6.3%. Being reasonable conservative, von Rundstedt's planning staff assumed 1 of 2 corps flipped (+2) vs the expected (+3 = 0.74 x 4). With this assumption, his planners estimated a conservative +14A and 94% PWIN.
Now for Rotterdam and to the extreme frustration of von Rundstedt, his planners gave a range for a "reasonable" conservative estimate of 9.591A to 12.553A or 60.3% to 82.3% PWIN. This range included both the doubled artillery ground strikes (po=0.824) vs 2 corps, 1 div, 1 fighter wing and possibility of RAF defensive ground support. Needless to say, von Rundstedt was less than satisfied with the range but accepted it as he fully trusts the analytical skills of his veteran planning staff.
When factored with the 94% PWIN for Brussels, this gave a overall operation success range of 56.7% to 77.4%. After getting this late evening briefing, eating a light light night supper and sleeping 4 hours on this; von Rundstedt decided to "literally" roll the dice, risk his career and recommend plan OC to the Fuhrer. With the tease of clearing out the festering Rotterdam blight, von Rundstedt was able to secure a late morning (1100) meeting with the Fuhrer. To the dismay of OKH senior generals, whom von Rundstedt bypassed by his direct meeting with Hitler, von Rundstedt was able to convince the Fuhrer of the merits of plan OC. The Fuhrer order that plan OC be immediately implemented, congratulated von Rundstedt on his boldness and scolded his OKH generals on their timidly.
Having gotten his deviation, Plan OC, approved, von Rundstedt left Cologne for his HQ in Aachen with both elation and deep worry. If HIS plan fails it will not only be the end of his career but could well be a stalemate on the Western Front as was in the Great War. Quickly pushing this out of his mind, von Rundstedt enjoyed the sunny ride back to his HQ. Once there; he issued the necessary orders to his staff and subordinate commands to prepare for the invasion of Belgium, execution of Plan OC for tomorrow. After issuing the orders, the success or failure of plan OC was now out of his hands and in the hands of his subordinates and their soldiers and airmen. It was early evening, von Rundstedt was both hungry and tried. He had an early supper, a small glass of whiskey and went to bed with orders to be awaked at 0400 barring the unexpected or any important communication from OKH. As he drifted off to some needed sleep, von Rundstedt marveled how high command carrier such responsibility but was dependent upon so many other people including 10,000's of privates, corporals and sergeants.
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Ronnie
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 4. Mar/Apr 1940. Axis #1. Western Front.
Land Combat Actuals.
Rotterdam, Holland.
(1) Artillery (2 div) double ground strike managed to flip UK II inf corps, 4.5 in arty div (& RAF fighter wing) and failed to flip London MIL.
(2) All assigned Luftwaffe bombers got through (+9 air), no RAF bombers got through (+0 air) and expected RN defensive shore bombardment (+3).
(3) Actual final odds were +11.944A (78.6% PWIN), which was near the upper limit of the estimated range of +9.591A (60.3% PWIN) to +12.553A (82.3% PWIN).
Brussels, Belgium.
(4) Ju 87B Stuka ground strike hit both Brussels defending corps resulting in an actual +16A (99% PWIN) versus the conservative plan estimate of +14A (which only assumed 1 of 2 corps flipped).
Liege, Belgium.
(5) Actual at 29.333A (automatic) was slightly less than planned 29.667A (automatic), but since both were automatic, no big deal.
Operation OC Actual.
(6) Operation OC actual probability of success is 78.6% x 99% x 100% = 77.8%, which is just slightly above the estimate range of 56.7% to 77.4%.
(7) von Rundstedt's mission planning staff did their job well, now it's up to the soldiers and airmen and now all von Rundstedt can do is wait.
Land Combat Actuals.
Rotterdam, Holland.
(1) Artillery (2 div) double ground strike managed to flip UK II inf corps, 4.5 in arty div (& RAF fighter wing) and failed to flip London MIL.
(2) All assigned Luftwaffe bombers got through (+9 air), no RAF bombers got through (+0 air) and expected RN defensive shore bombardment (+3).
(3) Actual final odds were +11.944A (78.6% PWIN), which was near the upper limit of the estimated range of +9.591A (60.3% PWIN) to +12.553A (82.3% PWIN).
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(4) Ju 87B Stuka ground strike hit both Brussels defending corps resulting in an actual +16A (99% PWIN) versus the conservative plan estimate of +14A (which only assumed 1 of 2 corps flipped).
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(5) Actual at 29.333A (automatic) was slightly less than planned 29.667A (automatic), but since both were automatic, no big deal.
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Operation OC Actual.
(6) Operation OC actual probability of success is 78.6% x 99% x 100% = 77.8%, which is just slightly above the estimate range of 56.7% to 77.4%.
(7) von Rundstedt's mission planning staff did their job well, now it's up to the soldiers and airmen and now all von Rundstedt can do is wait.
Ronnie
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 4. Mar/Apr 1940. Axis #1. Western Front.
Combat Logs.
(1) Looks like General von Rundstedt is in line for promoting to Field Marshall.
Europe. End of Impulse.
Combat Logs.
(1) Looks like General von Rundstedt is in line for promoting to Field Marshall.
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Ronnie
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 4. Mar/Apr 1940. Start of Turn (Addendum).
(1) I forgot to include start of turn business before posting the first impulse.
(2) Here it is below.
Reinforcements.
Trade.
Initiative.
(1) I forgot to include start of turn business before posting the first impulse.
(2) Here it is below.
Reinforcements.
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Ronnie
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 4. Mar/Apr 1940. Allied #2.
Pre-Briefs.
Pre-Briefs.
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Ronnie
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 4. Mar/Apr 1940. Allied #2. Europe.
Western Front. Combat Logs.
Eastern Front. Combat Logs.
End of Impulse.
Western Front. Combat Logs.
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Ronnie
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 4. Mar/Apr 1940. Allied #2. MTO. French North Africa.
Combat Logs.
End of Impulse.
Combat Logs.
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Ronnie
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 4. Mar/Apr 1940. Allied #2. BOA.
East Coast. Combat Logs.
East Coast. Combat Logs.
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Ronnie
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 4. Mar/Apr 1940. Allied #2. Asian Theater.
Combat Logs.
China. End of Impulse.
Combat Logs.
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- 02-AL-Asian-China.png (2.03 MiB) Viewed 362 times
Ronnie
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 4. Mar/Apr 1940. Allied #2. Asian Theater.
Soviet Asia. End of Impulse.
Soviet Asia. End of Impulse.
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Ronnie
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 4. Mar/Apr 1940. Allied #2. Middle East. Persia.
Pre-Brief. Attack Planning.
Combat Logs.
Persia. End of Impulse.
Pre-Brief. Attack Planning.
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Ronnie