A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.

[rkr1958]

Turn 4. Mar/Apr 1940. Axis #3. Asian Theater.

Pre-Brief.
(1) Japan will take a land and focus on two combat objectives in China (Tin RP 90,138 & Chengchow) and bolstering Umezu's army group in Manchuria).
(2) Getting a supply & oil convoy line open up to Persia is deferred for later in THIS turn.

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Attack Planning.
(3) Both combat objectives "recommend" HQ support (Terauchi for Chengchow & Yamamoto for Chi 89,139, which is one of two hexes required to "free" up the transport of Tin RP 90,138 to factory).

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Land Combat Actuals.
Chengchow, China.
(4) LC actual was higher than planned, +11A (79% PWIN) vs +9A (64% PWIN) due to under counting attacker LCF by 7!
(5) Definitely a welcomed error.

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China 89,139.
(6) LC actual matched planned.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 4. Mar/Apr 1940. Axis #3. Asian Theater.

Combat Logs.

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China. End of Impulse.
(1) All that's left to get Tin RP in southern China to factory is "pushing" Chiang and the Nationalist out of the adjacent hex.
(2) Note that the 10% ground strike versus the 17th inf army east of Nanning puts that army at risk as supply can easily by broken by the IJA 25th inf army moving directly west 1-hex.
(3) However; to do this the IJA needs a land or combine, which is unlikely next axis impulse as the IJN should get their naval.
(4) The hostility between the Japanese army and navy is reaching a boiling point in Tokyo.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 4. Mar/Apr 1940. Axis #3. Asian Theater.

Manchuria. End of Impulse.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 4. Mar/Apr 1940. Axis #3. Med.

Pre-Brief.

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Combat Logs.

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End of Impulse.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 4. Mar/Apr 1940. Axis #3. Eastern Front.

Combat Logs.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 4. Mar/Apr 1940. Axis #3. Western Front.

Pre-Brief.

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Attack Planning.
(1) Plan 1 - blitz vis Belgium 53,31 (Fr 3 stack, tank corps, inf corps, AT div) IF a corps or better flipped (i.e., LC(+) > 2).
(2) Otherwise; Plan 2 - assault UK (MIL & inf corps) in Antwerp, Belgium & 50/50 assault on French fort complex in Strasbourg.
(3) Plan 3 (independent of plan 1 or 2) was consider by Italy to push into France and captured Nice.
(4) This plan was rejected as too risky!

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[rkr1958]

Turn 4. Mar/Apr 1940. Axis #3. Western Front.

AA Fire Decision.
(1) France had two opportunities to oppose the Luftwaffe ground strike vs Belgium 53,31 (either or both by air intercept or AA fire).
(2) France declined the air-to-air intercept.
(3) The decision on whether or not to opposed by AA fire was made based on minimum expected +LC.
(4) For no fire, Ex[+LC | no AA fire] = (4/10) x 5 = +2.0
(5) For (-1/6) AA fire, Ex[+LC | AA fire] = ({4-1.98)/10) x 4 + 1 = +1.81, which is less than +2.0 expect if not firing; therefore, decision was made to fire.
(6) Note that Ex[+LC | AA fire] includes a base +1 for the AA div flipping after firing, leaving 2 corps (i.e., +4) "effectively" subject to the ground strike.
(7) The ground strike flipped the AA div, which was flipping after firing anyway!, and missed both corps.
(8) Therefore; it was plan 2 (assault Antwerp & Strasbourg).

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Land Combat Actuals.
Antwerp, Belgium.
(9) LC Actual of +9.5A (68%) was slightly better than planned +8.75A (61.8%).
(10) Every little bit helps, or should help.

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Strasbourg, France.
(11) LC Actual of +2.143A (46.4%) was significantly lower than planned +3.4A (58.6%).
(12) This was due to either planning optimist or oversight of unopposable French ground support of (+2 GSF).

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[rkr1958]

Turn 4. Mar/Apr 1940. Axis #3. Western Front.

Combat Logs.
(1) Oh well, both assaults failed (17.2% chance) and resulted in the lose of eng div, SS inf div, MIL corps (7 BPs).
(2) In truth, a setback not requiring a "morale check" given likely weather next impulse pair.
(3) Also, Germany does have what looks to be a 50/50 or so blitz shot vs the French tank army (tank corps, inf corps, AT div) if weather is fine.
(4) While not pleasant, not a disaster.

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Europe. End of Impulse.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 4. Mar/Apr 1940. Allied #4. Western Allies.

Pre-Brief.

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Battle of the Atlantic.
Threat.

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Risk Assessment.

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Combat Logs.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 4. Mar/Apr 1940. Allied #4. Western Allies (+)

Western Front.
Attack Planning (Projected German).

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Combat Logs.

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Europe. End of Impulse.

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Eastern Front. Combat Logs.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 4. Mar/Apr 1940. Allied #4. Western Allies. Med.

Combat Logs.

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End of Impulse.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 4. Mar/Apr 1940. Allied #4. USSR.

Pre-Brief.

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Middle East. Persia.
Attack Planning.

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Combat Logs.

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End of Impulse.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 4. Mar/Apr 1940. Allied #4. USSR.

Soviet Asia. End of Impulse.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 4. Mar/Apr 1940. Allied #4. China. Nationalist & CCP.

Pre-Brief.

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Attack Planning.

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Land Combat Actual.

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Combat Logs.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 4. Mar/Apr 1940. Allied #4. China. Nationalist & CCP.

End of Impulse.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 4. Mar/Apr 1940. Axis #5. Euro-Axis.

Pre-Brief.

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Atlantic. Combat Logs.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 4. Mar/Apr 1940. Axis #5. Euro-Axis. Med.

Combat Logs.

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French North Africa. End of Impulse.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 4. Mar/Apr 1940. Axis #5. Euro-Axis. Europe.

Combat Logs.
Eastern Front.

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Western Front.

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End of Impulse.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 4. Mar/Apr 1940. Axis #5. Japan. Pre-Brief.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 4. Mar/Apr 1940. Axis #5. Asian Theater.

Attack Planning.

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Land Combat Actuals.
E1-Nanning, China.

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China 74,142.

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Combat Logs.

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