- 20250602 - Xmas Surprise Part 2 Screenshot 1.jpg (332.6 KiB) Viewed 708 times
Mission Start Time / Date: 0130Z 25 Dec 2030
Primary Factions: US vs the Shanghai Pact
Duration: 14 Hours
Mission Overview: Monitor and defend Canada, Alaska and the North-Western US from Shanghai Pact forces.
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This scenario is designed to be played with “Unlimited Base Magazines”, “Aircraft Damage”, “Effects of Terrain Type” (non-advanced), “Communications Disruption”, “Weather affects ship speed”, “Weather and day/night affect aircraft sorties” and "Drone Autonomy Levels" turned on.
Feel free to delete any missions and unlocked Reference Points (RPs). However, the ASW missions do hint where enemy submarines are located. Any locked RPs should be left alone.
Note: this scenario pack is inspired by the various novels, films, TV programmes and video games where the US is attacked, usually by China or Russia. More often than not, these situations are fairly implausible. I’m sure that, in many ways, this too is an unlikely “alternative future”, but as with most good fiction, at least some of it is inspired by today’s current affairs. I've used various sources to ensure units are mostly correctly based, but as some hypothetical units are included, I also had to make some educated assumptions. These include F-35 avionics on the F-22 due to possible upgrades have been reported in open-source media. You'll also find X-47B UCAVs called F-47Bs; these were included in the scen before the actual F-47 was assigned to the NGAD. You’re welcome to skip the backstory below and go straight to the Briefing if you wish. The backstory is more of the “Why” as opposed to the “What” and “How”, and is it is identical to Part 1's intro.
There will be a total of three (3) scenarios in this pack, all set on the 25 December 2030. The locations of each scen is stated below:
Part 1: The US East Coast, primarily Washington DC, Virginia, the Carolinas, and Florida.
Part 2: Alaska, Canada, and the northern / north-western US.
Part 3: The US West Coast, primarily California, Nevada and Arizona.
A fourth scenario set in Europe may also be on the cards, set on Russian Orthodox Christmas.
Finally, many thanks to Saralotte and others in the CMO community who have provided INST files that make building these scenarios easier to make and more realistic.
As this is a Beta, any feedback is very welcome!
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Welcome back Commander,
By 2030, the United States of America had closed a significant number of its overseas bases, leaving only a handful on each continent or in each theatre of operations. The US didn't entirely abandon its allies around the world as some had feared when the “America First” ideology became a bi-partisan policy, but it did require notably more “quid pro quo” from them in order for American military forces to be stationed there. These deals could range from favourable trade deals to large purchases of hardware from US defence companies, access to raw materials like rare-Earth-metals, and / or providing larger subsidies to sustain the bases in their countries. Many European nations refused, choosing to expand their own military alliance via the European Union. By 2030, only the United Kingdom and Poland had American forces permanently stationed within their borders in Europe. In Asia, only one US base in South Korea remained open, while Kadena AFB and several others in Japan were closed, leaving only a handful of American forces stationed there. In the Middle East, US forces had entirely pulled out of Iraq and Syria leaving only a single superbase in Saudi Arabia and a small number of forces in Israel to deter Iran. All permanent bases in Africa had been closed, although American military forces were occasionally deployed to the continent at the request of a host nation.
Despite this drawdown, unfriendly actors like the Russian Federation (RF) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) had been less successful in their imperialist aims than many had anticipated. While the Russian-Ukrainian War (sorry, SMO) had ended in 2025, in terms that were generally seen as more favourable to the invader, Ukraine was allowed to join the EU, including its defensive pact. The land that the Russians had been handed in the peace agreement was largely a drain on resources, being so heavily mined and desolate after over 3 years of war. Very few of the remaining civilians in Eastern Ukraine had favourable views of their “liberators” and asymmetric attacks on Russian forces in the area were common.
The biggest problem that arose from the Ukraine war was that, when Russian President Vladimir Putin did pass away in 2026, their next leader was even more ruthless and hostile to the West. The new RF president privately vowed revenge on the US and Europe, believing that the 2022 assault on Kyiv would have succeeded if the West had not got involved.
The PRC had also been unable to fulfil its aim to “reunite” Taiwan with the mainland. Its plan to invade the Republic of China (ROC) in 2027 was thrown into disarray when it turned out that the US had covertly provided tactical nuclear weapons to the island the year before in exchange for advanced and heavily discounted computer chips. By 2027, the ROC had deployed dozens of nuclear torpedoes on a range of manned and unmanned submarines that could interdict any seaborne invasion force. Other tactical nuclear weapons were loaded onto Taiwanese missiles that would be used to strike Chinese ports or naval fleets should an invasion be attempted. When the PRC. had attempted to blockade the island in 2027, an underwater nuclear demonstration by Taiwan near a Chinese carrier strike group had forced the communists to scale back their plans. The PRC did succeed in taking several islands from Taiwan’s control during the crisis, but the nuclear test prevented an invasion of the Pescadores Islands.
To make matters worse, the tariffs that the US and some of the rest of the world had imposed on China had led to sluggish economic conditions in the country. While the trade war had also dampened economic growth in the US, the PRC was certainly hit harder.
By 2028, a new premier had taken charge of the Chinese Communist Party, who, like Russia, blamed the US for his nation's troubles. The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation became the Shanghai Pact, with North Korea, Iran, the RF and PRC becoming more militarily intertwined. They also took advantage of a crisis brewing on the North American continent following the increasing volatile relationship between the US and Mexico.
Following the 2024 US Presidential Election, American military forces began, covertly at first, but soon more obviously, conducting incursions into Mexico to attack the drug cartels. The Mexican government turned a blind eye to US Special Forces raids, but once the military actions escalated to drone strikes, they privately began to protest to the White House. The protests turned to public outrage when a US drone strike killed members of a rogue unit of the Mexican Army, leading to the expulsion of American diplomats and a massive deterioration of relations. The US cross-border operations only ceased when the Mexicans signed a defence treaty with the PRC, despite US government fury. Economic trade between the US and Mexico had effectively ceased, while American-Mexican diplomatic relations had reached their lowest point since the 1840s.
By 2030, the PRC hadn’t just obtained influence over Mexico but also most of Latin America, while Russia had re-established its alliance with Cuba. The Shanghai Pact had expanded with the PRC, RF, DPRK, Iran, Belarus, Cuba and Venezuela now all full members. Mexico and several South American countries were among a number of nations that were not official members, but were close partners. All of these countries were home to Chinese military bases by the end of the 2020s, with Mexico having PRC forces close to the US border to discourage American military action into its territory. By 2030, the US-Mexican boundary had begun to look more like the Korean DMZ with the US having seized several miles of Mexican territory along the border to allow for enhanced security. Despite the increased security, the Iranian Quds Force as well as special forces teams from the PRC and Russia, working covertly with the drug cartels, had implanted hundreds of personnel into the US to collect intelligence and to attack soft targets, should any hostilities breakout.
The 2030 US military was still the most powerful on Earth; while there had been budget cuts due to recessions caused by economic protectionism, the closing of many overseas bases meant that considerable funding had been diverted to procuring new ships and unmanned aircraft. The US Army had been cut, and had been largely reduced to supporting operations along the southern border, much to the chagrin of its leadership. The US had also burned the bridges with many, but not all, of its allies and partners, with the quality and quantity intelligence collection levels consequently reduced. This, combined with arrogance from some political appointees in the American government led to a number of intelligence “red flags” from being acted upon. As with the 1941 attack on Pearl Harbour and the 2001 September 11th terrorist attacks, historians would argue that many of the signs of the 2030 “Christmas Surprise” were observed by intelligence agencies, but their warnings were unheeded…
SITUATION:
America is at DEFCON 4 due to the presence of Shanghai Pact forces in close proximity to the US mainland and Alaska. These forces may pose a threat to American units in Alaska, and to the entire north-western US coast.
MISSION:
Monitor any and all Shanghai Pact air and naval activity close to US territory. Maintain Combat Air Patrols over western Alaska. Ensure that positive identification (PID) is established and maintained on surface and sub-surface contacts.
ROE:
WEAPONS HOLD, unless fired upon.
US PLAYER-CONTROLLED FORCES:
Surface Vessels:
USS John S McCain [DDG-56, Arleigh-Burke Class]
USS Constellation [FFG-62]
Submarines:
USS Oklahoma [SSN-802, Virginia Class, Flight V]
Aircraft:
Eielson AFB:
X13 355 FS Fighting Falcons F-35A Lighting fighters
X8 356 FS Green Demons F-35A Lighting fighters
X10 18 FS Blue Foxes F-16C Blk 50 Falcon fighters
X12 USAF Det XQ-58A Valkyrie UAVs (Modified)
X7 168 ARS Chena KC-46 Pegasus tankers
X1 USAF RQ-180 UAS Det (Modified)
Elmendorf AFB:
X8 90 FS Pair-o-Dice F-22A Raptor fighters (Modified)
X10 525 FS Bulldogs F-22A Raptor fighters (Modified)
X15 USAF Det XQ-58A Valkyrie UAVs (Modified)
X12 USAF F-47B UCAV Det (Modified)
X2 USAF SR-72 Test Det (Modified)
X3 962 AACS Det E-7A Wedgetail AWACS
X1 55 Operations Group Det RC-135V
X1 55 Operations Group Det RC-135W
CFB Cold Lake:
X8 409 TFS RCAF Det F-35A Lighting fighters
X4 433 TFS RCAF Det F/A-18A Hornet fighters
X1 437 TS RCAF Det CC-330 Husky tanker
NAS Whidbey Island:
X3 VP-69 Totems P-8A Poseidon MPAs (AAS)
X4 VP-40 Fighting Marlins P-8A Poseidon MPAs
X1 VUP-11 Proud Pegasus Det MQ-4C Triton UAV
X2 VAQ-129 Vikings Det E/A-18G Growler jammers
Portland IA / ANG AB:
X10 123 FS Redhawk ANG F-15EX Eagle fighters
Crater Lake Klamath Airport / Kingsley Field ANG AB:
X6 114 FS Eager Beavers F-35A Lighting fighters
Fairchild AFB:
X6 93 ARS KC-46 Pegasus tankers
X6 116 ARS Ace of Spades KC-135R tankers
X2 965 AACS Det E-3G Sentries
Hector IA / Fargo ANG AB:
X12 178 ATKS ANG XQ-58A Valkyrie UAVs (Modified)
Sioux Falls Regional Airport / Joe Foss Field ANG:
X4 175 FS Fightin Lobos Det F-16C Blk 50 Falcon fighters
X5 175 FS Fightin Lobos Det Have Raider UCAVs (Modified)
Duluth IA / Duluth ANG AB:
X6 179 FS Bulldogs ANG F-16CM Blk 52 Falcon fighters
USS John S McCain:
X2 MH-60R Seahawks Det
USS Constellation:
X3 V-247 Vigilant UASs
Fort Wainwright Army AB:
No units available at this time.
McChord Field (Joint Base Lewis-McChord):
No units available at this time.
St Louis Lambert IA / Boeing St Louis Factory
No units available at this time.
Land Forces:
Fort Wainwright Army AB FIM-92K / K Stinger MANPAD sites
Eielson SAM Bty (Patriot [PAC-2 GEM+ LAMDIS, PAC-3 ERINT/MSE])
Eielson MML SAM Bty
Fort Greely GBI [CE-II Blk 1, GMD]
Elmendorf SAM Bty (Patriot [PAC-2 GEM+ LAMDIS, PAC-3 ERINT/MSE])
Elmendorf MML SAM Bty
Kitsap SAM Bty (Patriot [PAC-2 GEM+ LAMDIS, PAC-3 ERINT/MSE])
Other assets are currently unavailable but may be assigned to your command in extremis.
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(“ ~ ”meaning approximately)
ENEMY FORCES:
Surface Vessels confirmed in the AOR:
RFS Dzerzhinskiy [Krivak III, Coast Guard of the FSB Border Service of Russia]
Submarines confirmed in the AOR:
X1 Yasen-M class SSN
X1 Oscar II class SSGN
X1 Type 95 SSN
Aviation Units confirmed in the AOR:
X3 A-100 Premier AEW aircraft
~X15 Su-34 Fullback strike fighters
~10 J-20B Fangan fighters
~X10 Su-57 Felon fighters
~X16 Su-75 Checkmate fighters
~X15 MiG-31BM & MiG-31K Foxhound fighters
X4 IL-96 tankers
~X10 Tu-22M Blackjack bombers
~X30 S-70 UCAVs
~X10 Orlan UASs
Land Units confirmed in the AOR:
~X3 SA-21 Growler) SAM systems
X1 SA-27 Grizzly SAM system
~X3 SA-22 Greyhound SAM systems
~X3 Nebo radars
~X5 Shahed SSM launchers
~X2 SSC-8 Screwdriver TELs
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NEUTRAL FORCES AND CIVILIANS:
Due to tensions between the US / Canada and the Shanghai Pact (SP), a Notice to Airmen (NOTAM) is in effect over Alaska and northern Canada. Therefore, no neutral or civilian aircraft or vessels are expected to interfere with any defensive operations. Civilian and neutral buildings are to be protected from any hostile acts.
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J2 (INTELLIGENCE) HIGHLIGHTS:
• Shanghai Pact (SP), namely Russian, forces have been spotted in the vicinity of Big Diomede island off the western coast of Alaska. The SP have built up a small forward operating base (FOB) on the island complete with advanced air defence systems, including SA-21 Growlers.
• SP aircraft operating from Provideniya Bay Airport / Airbase have probed the Alaskan Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) for the past 11 days. No SP forces have entered US or Canadian airspace. SP interactions with NORAD forces have been safe and professional on all but two intercepts.
• The US is currently at DEFCON 4 due to the proximity of Shanghai Pact forces in its Area of Responsibility (AOR). There have been vigorous disagreements between political appointees versus career intelligence officials, some of which have leaked out to the public, over the threat posed by Shanghai Pact forces. Several leaks have suggested that DEFCON 3 was considered but ruled out for political reasons. Despite this, some base commanders have operated within their own purview to raise local alert levels.
• The US National Terrorism Advisory System (NTAS) is currently at “Elevated” due to threats by the Mexican and South American drug cartels. The public have been warned to avoid large public gatherings and stay vigilant. However, many Christmas and other holiday celebrations are planned to go ahead regardless, with the vocal support of many elected and appointed members of the government.
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AOR WEATHER:
Clouds: MODERATE 25000-28000FT. No Rain. Sea State 2.