Ottoman unit in Basra before war entry

[Fafnir]

In a PBEM game the opponend managed to get a Ottoman corps into Basra before it is taken by UK (Indian) troops during the entry of the Ottoman emprie. The unit stayed there and was not eliminated or displaced.

Is this a bug?
This changes the whole balance for this area since the UK cannot do anything against it and therefore the later
Basra offensive which provides a HQ and an artilery will not be triggered.

I think this should not be possible or the event should react upon this.

[mdsmall]

Hi Fafnir,

It is a function of when the Ottomans enter the war which is determined by decision events for both sides. It takes nine turns for the Ottoman detachment which starts the game on Alexandretta to reach Basra - one forced march for 8 hexes and eight more moves at 3 hexes each (given that it will be under 6 supply in Mesopotamia). That means the earliest that the Ottomans can place a unit on Basra is by their turn on January 30, 1915.

The Ottomans mobilization schedule is as follows:

Starts at 20% for the Central Powers
Swings 10 - 15% if the UK seizes the Ottoman dreadnought on their first turn
Swings 20 - 30% if Germany sends the Goeben to Constantinople on their second turn
Swings 8 - 10% if Germany sends military aid to the Ottomans, also on their second turn
Swings 7 - 10% on September 1, 1914, if the Germans have sent aid to the Ottomans
Swings 15 - 25% on November 1, 1914, ditto
Swings 15 - 25% on December 1, 1914, ditto
Swings 15 - 25% on February 1, 1915, ditto

This means that if the Entente seizes the dreadnought AND the Germans send the Goeben to Constantinople, the Ottomans are guaranteed to reach 95% and will mobilize during Entente turn on December 5, 1914, which will enable the UK to capture Basra at the end of that turn. But if one of those two events goes the other way, Ottoman war entry will be delayed until February 1915 or later, which will enable the Ottomans to reach Basra by the end of January, provided they start marching on their first turn.

I think this is a reasonable outcome. In the Icarus mod, I allow the Indian detachment Force D to at least land in Kuwait if it fails to take Basra (because the Ottomans have occupied it). And I give the Ottomans the option of building a detachment in Basra on January 30, 1915 if the Ottomans are not yet in the war. But both these options will only fire if the Entente has chosen to send the dreadnought to the Ottomans in August 1914, or if the Central Powers have decided to send the Goeben to Austria-Hungary.

Of course, even if the Ottomans do occupy Basra first, the Entente can still send a force to Kuwait, including the Indian field artillery unit they can build in Egypt in April 1915. From there, they can attack Basra and provided they take Basra before July 1916, those other events will still fire. But it is much easier if they can capture it before the Ottomans have fully mobilized.

[Fafnir]

It is the end of the entende turn January 2nd 1915 where the Ottoman join the CP. At this point there was already a corps in Basra. It impossible for the UK to send 2 or 3 corps there to conquer Basra and the Ottomans may send reinforcents until this could happen (Artillery levle 1 is not available that early). Also they may conquer Kuwait too with the corps and reinforcements. So without any chance to alter this the Irak campain is stopped. Nevertheless the cost for this is deducted and not a different event was triggered.

[mdsmall]

It is the end of the entende turn January 2nd 1915 where the Ottoman join the CP. At this point there was already a corps in Basra. It impossible for the UK to send 2 or 3 corps there to conquer Basra and the Ottomans may send reinforcents until this could happen (Artillery levle 1 is not available that early). Also they may conquer Kuwait too with the corps and reinforcements. So without any chance to alter this the Irak campain is stopped. Nevertheless the cost for this is deducted and not a different event was triggered.

Hi - that's interesting. Yes, I can see a way for the Ottomans to get there on their December 19th turn, using the corps that starts on Erzurum and using two forced marches. It takes some careful planning and some luck. If the mobilization events I listed above swing towards the high end, the Ottomans will go to war by November 21, Basra will still fall and they will have one corps less on the sensitive Caucasus front. Whether this seems fair or unbalanced, I will let other people comment.

[Fafnir]

It falls, but he corps stay in and the Ottomans do not suffer the NM loss for it.

[BillRunacre]

I think I have a solution for this, that being to delay the increase in strength of all supply giving resources south of Baghdad until after the Ottomans have entered the war.

That way they can still send troops to Mesopotamia, but sending them further south, i.e. to Basra, would not only take longer, but also result in losses due to a lack of supply.

[katanatan]

It is the end of the entende turn January 2nd 1915 where the Ottoman join the CP. At this point there was already a corps in Basra. It impossible for the UK to send 2 or 3 corps there to conquer Basra and the Ottomans may send reinforcents until this could happen (Artillery levle 1 is not available that early). Also they may conquer Kuwait too with the corps and reinforcements. So without any chance to alter this the Irak campain is stopped. Nevertheless the cost for this is deducted and not a different event was triggered.

Hi - that's interesting. Yes, I can see a way for the Ottomans to get there on their December 19th turn, using the corps that starts on Erzurum and using two forced marches. It takes some careful planning and some luck. If the mobilization events I listed above swing towards the high end, the Ottomans will go to war by November 21, Basra will still fall and they will have one corps less on the sensitive Caucasus front. Whether this seems fair or unbalanced, I will let other people comment.

Yes, that is my standard opening and my strategy usually as central powers.
I honestly prefer a late ottoman entrance both for centrals and for entente as i see the ottomans more like a sideshow.
And i like having the goeben in the adriatic even though fafnir sunk it sadly.
I also think this is balanced as the ottomans later entrance means a shift in balance of power towards the entente during their absence and loss of MPPs

[katanatan]

I think I have a solution for this, that being to delay the increase in strength of all supply giving resources south of Baghdad until after the Ottomans have entered the war.

That way they can still send troops to Mesopotamia, but sending them further south, i.e. to Basra, would not only take longer, but also result in losses due to a lack of supply.

As the ottomans loose hundreds of MPPs using this later mobiliztation, i feel having basra secured if a player really wants it so (its my game in this example) is his own choice and you can calculate the MPP loss yourself that happens if ottomans enter later with subsequent less mobilization each turn.
My opinion is to not railroad basra even more, as entente if find basra campaign kidna useless compared to a real campaign into the middle east and arabia.

[mdsmall]

I should add to my comments above that getting a unit to Basra before the Ottomans enters the war also requires the Germans to send the Goeben to Pola, rather than Constantinople. The CP side has to slow down Ottoman mobilization by foregoing the 20 - 30% swing which they receive if the Goeben is sent to Constantinople. It is not a sure thing, but about 80% of the time if the Goeben goes to Pola, the Ottomans will not enter the war in December 1914, which will give them the time to reach Basra before they mobilize.

[katanatan]

I should add to my comments above that getting a unit to Basra before the Ottomans enters the war also requires the Germans to send the Goeben to Pola, rather than Constantinople. The CP side has to slow down Ottoman mobilization by foregoing the 20 - 30% swing which they receive if the Goeben is sent to Constantinople. It is not a sure thing, but about 80% of the time if the Goeben goes to Pola, the Ottomans will not enter the war in December 1914, which will give them the time to reach Basra before they mobilize.

Yes, a bit of luck depending on the mobilizations if Goeben is sent to austria (Otto neutral) but the german support happen and the dreadnaught is seized is given.
Under the light, that arguably, wether one likes it or not (i like long drawn out games a lot), a later ottoman entrance is otto corps that could immediatly rush the suez delayed and sets back the central powers a lot of mpps and opportunity cost. Taking basra is the 50% of the reason why i send the goeben to pola/austria. Britain can make strategic choices to which theatre to send its troops (usually best france and secondary egypt and then the war is already won or lost) but the centrals should not be railroaded to always loose basra. They should be able to have strategic flexibility in the middle/near east aswell.

[HansBolter]

The Ottomans can get a cavalry corps into Basra before the Brits arrive while having both naval events swing them towards the Axis...oops..I meant Central Powers.

[katanatan]

they dont start with a cav unit though?